Coronavirus thread

[steve ridgway]

From Nature: Coronavirus research updates: Antiviral antibodies peter out within weeks after infection

Hopes for a vaccine may be overblown.  Hopefully not.

I expect something will be produced. How safe it will be is another matter.

[Todd]

I expect something will be produced. How safe it will be is another matter.

I would think multiple vaccines will be produced.  Safety is one concern, to be sure, but effectiveness is even more important.  That is what some evidence indicates may be in question.

[drogulus]

     We don't have an HIV vaccine. That's something to keep in mind.

     I'm thinking we might end up with an annual vaccine cocktail for influenza and Covid.

     I'm optimistc about improved treatment options. There are a couple of reasons the death toll has been lower recently. One is the age of the infected population, and another is that treatment keeps getting better.

[steve ridgway]

Tackling diabetes seems to be worth doing too.

[Todd]

     We don't have an HIV vaccine. That's something to keep in mind.

HIV is not an airborne disease.  That's something to keep in mind.

[MusicTurner]

- Lots of optimistic stories about vaccine progress in various countries (the US, GB, DK, RU military (🤔), etc). Including possibilities of a vaccine beginning to be distributed this year. But we'll see.

- Of the 5.6 mio Danish population, 1 mio has now been tested, and 1.3 % were found to be infected, which is probably fairly indicative for the situation in many places.

[drogulus]

HIV is not an airborne disease.  That's something to keep in mind.

    You can do both. The point is that there may be no vaccine that's effective, or no vaccine that's effective for long. If we're lucky and determined we might get to the point where an annual booster shot is effective enough to keep the virus infection rate well controlled. We may never get as far as we did with polio or smallpox.

     So, we're going to need better treatments so people can go to the doctor, get real time testing and be treated immediately, then go home and quarantine. That's something that will happen.

     The vaccine goal is not primarily to prevent you from getting the virus, it's to prevent the virus from getting to you by creating a web of firebreaks through the whole population. The aggregate effect of the vaccine is what protects you.

[Todd]

Thank goodness no one on GMG is responsible for making public health policy.

[drogulus]

   

Thank goodness no one on GMG is responsible for making public health policy.

     No, it would be better if it was made by almost anyone on GMG. Anyway, how vaccines that reach 50% effectiveness work isn't hard to figure out. And 50% may turn out to be what we get.

     FDA Sets Bar for COVID-19 Vaccine Approval at 50% Effectiveness

     

[drogulus]

- Lots of optimistic stories about vaccine progress in various countries (the US, GB, DK, RU military (🤔), etc). Including possibilities of a vaccine beginning to be distributed this year. But we'll see.

- Of the 5.6 mio Danish population, 1 mio has now been tested, and 1.3 % were found to be infected, which is probably fairly indicative for the situation in many places.

     Positive rates in some states are in the 18-23% range. Some states that have recovered from severe outbreaks are at 1-2%.

[MusicTurner]

     Positive rates in some states are in the 18-23% range. Some states that have recovered from severe outbreaks are at 1-2%.

Obviously, the low numbers I mentioned would usually be related to areas with quite effective social distancing and lockdown.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Might be a fluid situation, but this is the latest news I read from CNBC (emphasis added):

5 HOURS AGO [1:30 PM EDT July 16]
CDC restores some hospital data, but will no longer update
After CNBC reported that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention removed data on the availability of hospital beds across the country from its website, the agency has republished some of the data through Tuesday, but said it will no longer provide updates.

"The following downloadable file contains national and state estimates from the NHSN COVID-19 Module," the CDC says on its site. "This file will not be updated after July 14, 2020 and includes data from April 1 to July 14."

The move comes after the Trump administration directed states to stop reporting the relevant data directly to the CDC, and to instead report it through a portal with the Department of Health and Human Services. In the future, HHS spokesman Michael Caputo said, HHS will provide "more powerful insights."

"Yes, HHS is committed to being transparent with the American public about the information it is collecting on the coronavirus," he said. "Therefore, HHS has directed CDC to re-establish the coronavirus dashboards it withdrew from the public on Wednesday." —Will Feuer


As I read it, the CDC "restored" "some" data covering April 14 through July 14, but will not provide the data from July 14 going forward. So they've terminated public access to the data effective July 14.

Time will tell whether HHS provides comparable information, but I seriously doubt it.

Thank you T.D.  I hope that the CDC manages to get back the information directly.

Best wishes,

PD

[T. D.]

Thank you T.D.  I hope that the CDC manages to get back the information directly.

Best wishes,

PD

Here's what CNBC reported this afternoon (around 2 PM EDT):
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/17/coronavirus-live-updates.html

5 HOURS AGO
Governors urge administration to delay data reporting change
All of the nation's governors are urging the Trump administration to delay its decision to shift control of U.S. coronavirus hospital data away from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The governors are calling for a 30-day delay, even though the policy has already been implemented and the CDC has stopped updating some data on its site as a result. The governors said in a statement that hospitals need time to adapt to the new reporting system.

They also urged the Department of Health and Human Services to make the data public. An HHS spokeswoman told CNBC the agency is working to make the data public, potentially "in a few days." —Will Feuer

[drogulus]

     I think we'll get better numbers from the CDC than the Dept. Of October Surprise. I trust Dr. Twerpfield more than Azar, who is like unto a snake, provided you don't like snakes.

[T. D.]

     I think we'll get better numbers from the CDC than the Dept. Of October Surprise. I trust Dr. Twerpfield more than Azar, who is like unto a snake, provided you don't like snakes.

I'm not optimistic. But in keeping with all the ineptness to date, it's likely that when (if?  ) they fudge the numbers going forward, it'll be done in such a dumbass ham-fisted way that data analysts will immediately spot it.

[drogulus]

     Where are people wearing masks the most/least?

     

     The darker the area the more likely that people you encounter will be wearing masks. Take a look at Georgia. It looks like DeGovernor Kemp is having an effect, or Georgians are imposing a moronic convergence on his sorry ass. Either way, don't go there.

[JBS]

It may not quite correlate. I live in one of the darkest spots on the map, but my county (as of this morning) had 445 out of 510 adult ICU beds filled, and about 4400 out of about 5300 hospital beds overall filled. Positivity rate for testing is about 15% for the past week.

[drogulus]

It may not quite correlate. I live in one of the darkest spots on the map, but my county (as of this morning) had 445 out of 510 adult ICU beds filled, and about 4400 out of about 5300 hospital beds overall filled. Positivity rate for testing is about 15% for the past week.

    When New York and Massachusetts were Ground Zero we learned to wear masks and didn't stop wearing them because in order to crush the virus that's what you have to do. You never stop never stopping.

    It looks like that's happening in some parts of some southern and southwestern states, only the public is leading the public officials reluctantly in the right direction. They are still dragging their heels.

    I shudder to think what a "just bog" would do to these guys. They'd have to watch a loop of "Two Broke Girls" only relieved by the Cars For Kids ad until the Heat Death.

[T. D.]

My county (Ulster Co., NY) was consistently over 15% positivity rate (up to 25%) during the depths of the lockdown, but I don't believe hospital beds / ICU got as tight as mentioned in FLA above . Agreed, that's when many "got religion" about masks. I'm 62 years old, and have a feeling I'll be wearing a mask in public for the foreseeable future, quite possibly years. I'm seeing younger people "mask up" less and take more risks (IMO). And there are many who eschew masks and curse the Governor. Even in this fairly dark-shaded county, there have been anti-mask demonstrations. Zooming in on the NYT chart, the rural Western part of the county wears masks less than the urbanized East (definite political party correlation), but the COVID cases have been strongly concentrated in the urban areas.

[drogulus]

My county (Ulster Co., NY) was consistently over 15% positivity rate (up to 25%) during the depths of the lockdown, but I don't believe hospital beds / ICU got as tight as mentioned in FLA above . Agreed, that's when many "got religion" about masks. I'm 62 years old, and have a feeling I'll be wearing a mask in public for the foreseeable future, quite possibly years. I'm seeing younger people "mask up" less and take more risks (IMO). And there are many who eschew masks and curse the Governor. Even in this fairly dark-shaded county, there have been anti-mask demonstrations. Zooming in on the NYT chart, the rural Western part of the county wears masks less than the urbanized East (definite political party correlation), but the COVID cases have been strongly concentrated in the urban areas.

    Where I am you wear masks. Businesses require it. Other people expect it. Our reopening has been slow and caution is high. We know not to throw away the painful effort we put in for months to get to this point. "Nyah, nyah, you can't make me" doesn't fly.