Coronavirus thread

[Mandryka]

Here in the Netherlands expectation is that mid August anyone willing will be fully vaccinated.

That's good progress. Is that representative of other EU countries?

[MusicTurner]

In Russia for example, just 13% have been vaccinated, and they've now really begun to take this issue seriously, by introducing obligatory vaccines under a lot of circumstances.

It seems likely that more and more similar measures will be taken in such regions.

[Mandryka]

In Russia for example, just 13% have been vaccinated, and they've now really begun to take this issue seriously, by introducing obligatory vaccines under a lot of circumstances.

It seems likely that more and more similar measures will be taken in such regions..

It seems quite possible that we will have a more authoritarian EU and UK  in the near future. I wonder how the people will respond to that.

A friend of mine from Romania talks about how the people from communist countries sleepwalked into liberticide measures, many feeling that each one was justified on the grounds of security. But they add up . . .

[Que]

That's good progress. Is that representative of other EU countries?

With percentages of 63,3% for at least one dose and 36,2% for completed vaccinations, the numbers for the Netherlands are above the EU average. That's just over 14 million shots on a population of just over 17 million. Speed is picking up at 200,000 shots per day/ 1.4 million a week.

[71 dB]

That is worrying....  Vaccination hesitancy in general is: it will prevent the protection of those that cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons, like infants, the sick and the very elderly, and it will increase the chance of the spread of variants that are immune to the vaccines.

Vaccination hesitancy in the EU overall is now estimated at around 25%, which is still too high. Hopefully at least another 10% can be persuaded to be vaccinated. I hope that reaching out to the poorly informed and less educated, combined with travel restrictions for the more affluent anti vaxxers will do the trick...

Current vaccination rates in the EU: 54,8% has received at least one dose, with 31% fully vaccinated.

https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html#uptake-tab

Here in the Netherlands expectation is that mid August anyone willing will be fully vaccinated.

As of writing this EU average for at least one dose = 57.3 % (Finland 68.7 %) and for fully vaccinated = 34.0 % (Finland 19.2 %) so Finland is ahead of the EU average for the first dose, but lags behind for the second dose (the 12 weeks between doses instead of 3 makes this: For example I still have over 5 weeks before I get my 2nd jab in July 31!) meaning by mid August around 45 % of adult Finns are fully vaccinated. I'd say everyone willing to be vaccinated will be "before Christmas!" 

[Mandryka]

With percentages of 63,3% for at least one dose and 36,2% for completed vaccinations, the numbers for the Netherlands are above the EU average. That's just over 14 million shots on a population of just over 17 million. Speed is picking up at 200,000 shots per day/ 1.4 million a week.

Do you reckon I've got any chance of getting to this without quarantining?

https://oudemuziek.nl/agenda/alle-concerten-20212022/fom21002-cantus-modalis-seconda-prat-ca/27-aug-utrecht-2230/

I need to meet a Dutch civil servant who can pull some strings , , ,

[steve ridgway]

Do you reckon I've got any chance of getting to this without quarantining?

https://oudemuziek.nl/agenda/alle-concerten-20212022/fom21002-cantus-modalis-seconda-prat-ca/27-aug-utrecht-2230/

I need to meet a Dutch civil servant who can pull some strings , , ,

Would you be let back afterwards?

[Que]

Do you reckon I've got any chance of getting to this without quarantining?

https://oudemuziek.nl/agenda/alle-concerten-20212022/fom21002-cantus-modalis-seconda-prat-ca/27-aug-utrecht-2230/

I need to meet a Dutch civil servant who can pull some strings , , ,

I'm afraid chances of that are pretty slim......

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index

The Netherlands is on an 8th place of least corrupted countries, right after Norway and before Germany. 

Your best chance is that by the end of August the infection rate in the UK has gone down and vaccination rate in the Netherlands has gone up. Which might very well be the case. I would risk orderering tickets.

Delighted that you like the Utrecht Early Music Festival BTW. 

[prémont]

The Netherlands is on an 8th place of least corrupted countries, right after Norway and before Germany. 

I note with some satisfaction that my homeland is number one on the list. 

[MusicTurner]

I note with some satisfaction that my homeland is number one on the list. 

Yes, I've wondered though if that position would still be kept, since we've had a handful of corruption cases in later years.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Do you reckon I've got any chance of getting to this without quarantining?

https://oudemuziek.nl/agenda/alle-concerten-20212022/fom21002-cantus-modalis-seconda-prat-ca/27-aug-utrecht-2230/

I need to meet a Dutch civil servant who can pull some strings , , ,

I'd be curious to hear about what you've seen in terms of SW19 and what you've noticed in terms of the number of people/visitors coming to your area now that Wimbledon qualifying is on and I believe that the main draw starts of Monday?  I believe that they will be allowing 50% grounds capacity to start and 100% for the men's and women's singles finals.  Not certain whether or not there are any other rules regarding crowd size over the course of the even?

Have you ever gone to The Championships yourself? 

Good luck with the concert.  Hope that things continue to improve in the UK--and everywhere else too!

PD

[Mandryka]

I'm afraid chances of that are pretty slim......

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index

The Netherlands is on an 8th place of least corrupted countries, right after Norway and before Germany. 

Your best chance is that by the end of August the infection rate in the UK has gone down and vaccination rate in the Netherlands has gone up. Which might very well be the case. I would risk orderering tickets.

Delighted that you like the Utrecht Early Music Festival BTW. 

Ah well, nothing ventured nothing gained.

By the way, the mass they're doing, Missa Mater Patris, is perfect for their approach. Tallis Scholars recorded it and it must be one of the best things they ever did - if you haven't heard it, put aside your preconceptions about their style and try it out, I bet you'll be pleasantly surprised.

[steve ridgway]

UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock has admitted breaching social distancing rules after a newspaper published photos of him embracing his aide / secret girlfriend.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15388014/matt-hancock-secret-affair-with-aide/

[Que]

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/situation-updates/weekly-maps-coordinated-restriction-free-movement

[Mandryka]

I'd be curious to hear about what you've seen in terms of SW19 and what you've noticed in terms of the number of people/visitors coming to your area now that Wimbledon qualifying is on and I believe that the main draw starts of Monday?  I believe that they will be allowing 50% grounds capacity to start and 100% for the men's and women's singles finals.  Not certain whether or not there are any other rules regarding crowd size over the course of the even?

Have you ever gone to The Championships yourself? 

Good luck with the concert.  Hope that things continue to improve in the UK--and everywhere else too!

PD

The Wimbledon tennis is not in fact in Wimbledon, but it's close and I have been and in fact I have a friend who has a house where you can see onto a court from the top bedroom. But I'm not so interested any more so . . .

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Lucky friend Mandryka!

One thing that the commentators have brought up (several times) which doesn't make sense to me (nor to them) is that o.k., so they are allowing half the usual amount of grounds passes as usual (including tickets to Centre Court, etc.) per NHS rules.  They are also asking people to wear masks when walking around the grounds (outside), BUT as far as seating goes, they have everybody sitting right next to each other on the show courts!  They also are not allowing seating in the upper reaches, so better seating for those there, but again this means that everybody is squished in there right next to each other.  No masks required there and sometimes they have also closed the roofs due to rain.  I'm left scratching my head wondering about the logic of this.   

In any event, I'm glad that it's back!  I missed it last year.

PD

[Mandryka]

My calculations are as follows, I'll "show my working" if anyone's interested. All this is based on UK data, where delta is 90% of cases at least and a large part of the population over 50 is fully vaccinated.

First hospitalisations. It looks as though hospitalisations  ≈ cases * 0.02. With alpha and no vaccines, in the wave in Spring this year, hospitalisations  ≈ cases * 0.08.

In spring the health system got through 50K cases a day and survived after a fashion, so I conclude that now we have headroom for 4 * 50K cases a day, i.e. 200K cases a day.

We're currently at 20K cases a day, with a doubling time of about two weeks. If things carry on like this, it makes 80K cases a day by the end of July and we're in the shit mid/end August, in deep shit mid September.

Of course vaccination has an effect on transmission, as discussed above. Though this may be counterbalanced by removing NPIs like social distancing. Also, some sort of mass community immunity may start to make itself felt in the model.

But still I can't help feel that we're part of a very scary and exciting community experiment. I hope God is on our side. And thank God we've got a high rate of vaccination.

[Que]

A toxic mix of a football tournament and the Delta variant:

Covid: Europe risks new wave, WHO warns

You couldn't make this stuff up....

[Mandryka]

Some friends' analysis of UK data (about delta and vaccination) suggests that in vaccinated populations doubling time is about 15 days - 12 days in unvaccinated populations.

I will let others draw conclusions.

This interesting looking Guardian article suggests that the UK strategy is to achieve vaccine induced herd immunity. But I don't see how that's possible, the vaccines don't stop you catching the virus or transmitting it to others!


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/02/we-are-a-petri-dish-world-watches-uks-race-between-vaccine-and-virus

[Que]

This interesting looking Guardian article suggests that the UK strategy is to achieve vaccine induced herd immunity. But I don't see how that's possible, the vaccines don't stop you catching the virus or transmitting it to others!

The general assumption is that vaccines actually do significantly reduce transmission.
But all vaccines are less effective against the Delta variant. As I pointed out before, a more infectious variant and lower effectiveness of vaccines means you need a much higher vaccination rate as a threshold for group immunity. Before I mentioned 90%, the linked article mentions 85%.

I think the facts that the UK generally used AstraZeneca, a vaccine that is less effective than Pfizer or Moderna, and initially opted for a 1st shot for as many as possible instead of full vaccinations, will also play into this. AZ is only effective against the Delta variant with full vaccination.