Coronavirus thread

[Que]

Here's some positive news:

Breakthrough infections generate 'super immunity' to COVID-19, study suggests

COVID-19 vaccination provides a foundation of protection that's enhanced by breakthrough infection; 'the key is to get vaccinated'

[Karl Henning]

Here's some positive news:

Breakthrough infections generate 'super immunity' to COVID-19, study suggests

COVID-19 vaccination provides a foundation of protection that's enhanced by breakthrough infection; 'the key is to get vaccinated'

Most interesting.

[amw]

I no longer have any COVID-19 symptoms and rapid tests are coming back negative, so I've been heading outdoors a bit more. People have become a bit more serious about wearing masks indoors, and the testing lines are as long as I've ever seen them, but otherwise there seem to have been no significant changes in mobility or habits. Haven't yet ventured onto public transit to check out other neighbourhoods. My case was very mild, much easier than even the average winter cold or flu & not impacting at all on my ability to work etc. I don't know how much damage it might do to someone who was vaccinated but in an at-risk group; there's some statistical data suggesting such people still do have a much lower rate of severe illness from COVID-19-O than the unvaccinated do (or than they might from, e.g., COVID-19-Δ) but it hasn't yet been analysed systematically as far as I know.

Seven-day moving average deaths in this state are up 57% from this time last month, but given that absolute numbers are still low (55 vs. 35) I don't think that figure has a lot of statistical significance. Hospital admissions are up significantly (though lower than the peak in Dec 2020–Feb 2021). Increases in deaths look significant in France, Spain, Italy, Germany, all of which are also likely to be omicron variant. (Average deaths in Germany seem to have peaked at about half the peak of Dec 2020–Feb 2021, around 400 deaths/day vs. 800.)

My view is still that this is not the variant we were waiting for, one mild enough to warrant a complete absence of restrictions, but that seems to be what's happening anyway. I expect some governments will reverse course and introduce new restrictions once hospitals start to get overwhelmed, but the US government seems to just be ignoring the problem, in its time-honoured manner of ignoring all problems until they cause a civil war or economic crisis.

Here's some positive news:

Breakthrough infections generate 'super immunity' to COVID-19, study suggests

COVID-19 vaccination provides a foundation of protection that's enhanced by breakthrough infection; 'the key is to get vaccinated'

That's one data point. But:

the protective immune response may be broadened through development of variant boosters with antigenic inserts matching the emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.

This seems a much more common-sense strategy than using repeat doses of the original vaccine formula as booster shots, so I'm glad to see scientists bringing it up. The results were also fairly clear that Δ infection provided almost complete immunity to Δ reinfection, and some immunity to other variants, but infection with other variants did not provide significantly more immunity to Δ infection than the vaccine on its own. One could hypothesise that the immune response to Δ is stronger than the immune response to the other tested variants, with this also accounting for the large number of deaths caused by Δ (i.e., the variant induced autoimmune effects). As such, I do think it's unlikely the results could be generalised to new variants, but I'm sure someone is working to determine that in a lab somewhere as we speak.

[Mirror Image]

My sister in Tennessee, God save her, refuses to wear a mask (she's on the disinformation drip) so that she has canceled medical appointments because the doctors' offices are requiring masks on patients.

Imagine letting some crazy ideology stand in the way of getting a medical appointment. All I can do is shake my head. I'm really fighting a losing battle here, especially since the mask wearing is so few and far between.

[prémont]

Breakthrough infections generate 'super immunity' to COVID-19, study suggests[/url]

Very well, if you survive. 

[Karl Henning]

Very well, if you survive. 

The key does appear to be, a breakthrough whose effects are mild.

[Karl Henning]

Imagine letting some crazy ideology stand in the way of getting a medical appointment. All I can do is shake my head. I'm really fighting a losing battle here, especially since the mask wearing is so few and far between.

It pains me that she is deaf to any discussion I might offer on the subject.

[Holden]

Very well, if you survive. 

Why wouldn't you? The ratio of infection to mortality is incredibly low and this includes the unvaccinated. At this point in time the number of deaths related to actual cases in the UK is 1.2%. If you include the whole population it falls to 0.22%.

[prémont]

The key does appear to be, a breakthrough whose effects are mild.

Probably true of the general population. But unfortunately I am - because of pre existing disease - at particular risk of having a serious course.

[prémont]

Why wouldn't you? The ratio of infection to mortality is incredibly low and this includes the unvaccinated. At this point in time the number of deaths related to actual cases in the UK is 1.2%. If you include the whole population it falls to 0.22%.

Statistics can't be used in individual cases.

[Karl Henning]

Probably true of the general population. But unfortunately I am - because of pre existing disease - at particular risk of having a serious course.

Of course, I should not take this piece of news as any sort of encouragement to let omicron in.

[prémont]

Yes, and therefore I am also very careful in these times where the omicron - not least in Denmark - is spreading rapidly.

[amw]

As I mentioned there is a growing body of data, although mostly awaiting peer review, let alone meta-analysis. This preprint found that Omicron had significantly lower infectiousness of lung and other epithelial tissue compared to bronchial tissue, for example, as well as resulting in much closer-to-normal blood oxygen saturation than Delta or wild-type. These results have matched most of the other preprint results. The authors do mention that pathogenicity tends to decrease linearly whereas transmissibility tends to increase exponentially, and emphasise that it's still likely to be a high-impact event for the health system. However, these results do suggest that different groups of people may be vulnerable to Omicron than to other variants, since this variant does not infect the lungs easily nor significantly impair blood oxygen levels etc. (And we're seeing that on the ground here with the vastly increased rate of child hospitalisation, for example, never previously seen before in the pandemic.) Which comorbidities will be more vulnerable now remains an open question.

It's justified to be extremely cautious if one has any comorbidity but it will also be very difficult to completely avoid Omicron given the exponentially higher transmission. Safest is to assume everyone has it unless they can show two negative antigen tests on subsequent days. (In my neighbourhood at the moment, the test positivity rate is 28%, not counting self-tests. It has plateaued at roughly that rate for the last few days & this is probably where everyone's neighbourhood is going.)

[Karl Henning]

As I mentioned there is a growing body of data, although mostly awaiting peer review, let alone meta-analysis. This preprint found that Omicron had significantly lower infectiousness of lung and other epithelial tissue compared to bronchial tissue, for example, as well as resulting in much closer-to-normal blood oxygen saturation than Delta or wild-type. These results have matched most of the other preprint results. The authors do mention that pathogenicity tends to decrease linearly whereas transmissibility tends to increase exponentially, and emphasise that it's still likely to be a high-impact event for the health system. However, these results do suggest that different groups of people may be vulnerable to Omicron than to other variants, since this variant does not infect the lungs easily nor significantly impair blood oxygen levels etc. (And we're seeing that on the ground here with the vastly increased rate of child hospitalisation, for example, never previously seen before in the pandemic.) Which comorbidities will be more vulnerable now remains an open question.

It's justified to be extremely cautious if one has any comorbidity but it will also be very difficult to completely avoid Omicron given the exponentially higher transmission. Safest is to assume everyone has it unless they can show two negative antigen tests on subsequent days. (In my neighbourhood at the moment, the test positivity rate is 28%, not counting self-tests. It has plateaued at roughly that rate for the last few days & this is probably where everyone's neighbourhood is going.)

Thanks.

[Holden]

Statistics can't be used in individual cases.

Yes, they can! These figures are an indication of your chance, as an individual, of dying from Covid. It doesn't mean that you definitely won't but it certainly looks like you're far more likely to live than die of Covid. Are you vaxxed? If so then your chances got even better.

[Que]

The key does appear to be, a breakthrough whose effects are mild.

Indeed, we are talking about breakthrough infections of people who have been fully vaccinated
The interesting thing here is that breakthrough infections of fully vaccinated with Omicron are used by sceptics to dismiss the value of previous vaccinations. Apart from evidence that these vaccinations still protect against serious effects of the disease and hospitalisation, now there are indications that this will only reinforce immunity to an unprecedented level if you were previously vaccinated.

[Que]

As I mentioned there is a growing body of data, although mostly awaiting peer review, let alone meta-analysis. [...] However, these results do suggest that different groups of people may be vulnerable to Omicron than to other variants, since this variant does not infect the lungs easily nor significantly impair blood oxygen levels etc. (And we're seeing that on the ground here with the vastly increased rate of child hospitalisation, for example, never previously seen before in the pandemic.) Which comorbidities will be more vulnerable now remains an open question.

Good news on the lesser impact of Omicron on the lungs... but the increased effect on children is worrying and reopens the debate (and ends it IMO) on the vaccination of children.

New Omicron variant fills up children's hospitals

[Que]

It's justified to be extremely cautious if one has any comorbidity but it will also be very difficult to completely avoid Omicron given the exponentially higher transmission. Safest is to assume everyone has it unless they can show two negative antigen tests on subsequent days. (In my neighbourhood at the moment, the test positivity rate is 28%, not counting self-tests. It has plateaued at roughly that rate for the last few days & this is probably where everyone's neighbourhood is going.)

In addition to my previous post. Given that Omicron is hard to avoid due to its infectiousness and because it has widely spread,  it is all the better that the vaccinations - even if they were designed for an earlier variant - still offer crucial protection. And this reality has finally gotten through with some people... I live very close to a vaccination location, and I can see the repenting unvaccinated lining up every day.

[Mandryka]

Good news on the lesser impact of Omicron on the lungs... but the increased effect on children is worrying and reopens the debate (and ends it IMO) on the vaccination of children.

New Omicron variant fills up children's hospitals

I'd like to see some more about this. We are also seeing a rise in paediatric admissions in the UK, but as far as I know (though I'm not certain) most of them are delta. I'm also not clear how many of them are incidental covid admissions.

The topic is so sensitive, a generator of fear and internet clicks and hence ad revenue, that I'm very much inclined to distrust anything I read in the popular press about it.

[Mandryka]

In addition to my previous post. Given that Omicron is hard to avoid due to its infectiousness and because it has widely spread,  it is all the better that the vaccinations - even if they were designed for an earlier variant - still offer crucial protection. And this reality has finally gotten through with some people... I live very close to a vaccination location, and I can see the repenting unvaccinated lining up every day.

But surely it's too late! Especially if you've not had any vaccinations already.