Coronavirus thread

[Karl Henning]

I don't know about the USA but in some European countries yes, that level has been reached  --- and guess what, they still have restrictions and mask mandates and some of them even lockdowns.

Guess what, Andrei, while any epidemiologist knew that the virus would mutate, I suppose Fauci's "critical error" here was, that he failed in 2016 to anticipate (specifically) the exponential rise in transmissibility of the omicron virus in 2022. Not even our expert GMG virologists foresaw that. Why you and Mandryka are so invested in trying to paint Fauci as someone acting in bad faith, is your trip. It ain't The Quest for the Facts.

[Madiel]

Which podcast is that?

It was an episode of 99% Invisible. Great show.

[SimonNZ]

Thanks. I'll check it out.

[Mandryka]

Guess what, Andrei, while any epidemiologist knew that the virus would mutate, I suppose Fauci's "critical error" here was, that he failed in 2016 to anticipate (specifically) the exponential rise in transmissibility of the omicron virus in 2022. Not even our expert GMG virologists foresaw that. Why you and Mandryka are so invested in trying to paint Fauci as someone acting in bad faith, is your trip. It ain't The Quest for the Facts.

Salesmanship. Talking up the positive to get people to focus there rather than on all the ifs and buts. It's only natural. And any good salesman always makes sure that he can't be accused telling lies or omitting to mention important facts when buyers' remorse sets in.

[vandermolen]

Much strength to her, and to you also.

Very many thanks.

[Florestan]

Part of what you have in bold is not a Fauci quote. It is text written by a journalist.

The other part that you have in bold refers to a level of vaccination that I believe the USA has never reached, and makes no reference to normality or to vaccination being the total answer.

But the first point is the more important one: you are taking a news report, written by a journalist, which has bits and pieces of sentences from Fauci, and treating it as "this is what Fauci said". It isn't. It's how a journalist interpreted and boiled down what Fauci said. And from both extensive knowledge of the problems in the ways science is reported and some experience of getting to hear Fauci in his own words, I would be EXTREMELY cautious about treating those as the same thing.

Well, yes, absolutely. Unless one is privy to Fauci's press briefings, scientific meetings or reports and private family statements, the only way one can know what he thinks about Covid is by mass media filters.

But this is all the more reason for him or any other scientist who goes public to be extremely  careful  and cautious about what they say and how they express it --- and to explicitly and vehemently protest when the said media misquote them and misrepresent their position.

If that is Fauci's case, I'll leave to others to judge.

Anyway I thank you for contradicting my position without presupposing and proclaiming that I am a bad faith person. Much appreciated.

[Florestan]

Fauci not mentioning boosters in 2016

Fauci's "critical error" here was, that he failed in 2016

2016 twice?

Non c'e due senza tre. 

[Florestan]

Salesmanship. Talking up the positive to get people to focus there rather than on all the ifs and buts. It's only natural. And any good salesman always makes sure that he can't be accused telling lies or omitting to mention important facts when buyers' remorse sets in.

[Florestan]

Not even our expert GMG virologists foresaw that.

Now you sound exactly like Todd, word for word.

[Madiel]

But this is all the more reason for him or any other scientist who goes public to be extremely  careful  and cautious about what they say and how they express it --- and to explicitly and vehemently protest when the said media misquote them and misrepresent their position.

It's an interesting question just who you get to protest to... given that much of the worst misrepresentation of Fauci was coming from the President of the USA for a period, he had to choose his battles... 

But I think the wider, more general problem is that a lot of scientists are not really choosing to "go public" in that way, and it's not their natural inclination. They kind of end up being public when they get into a senior enough position, and/or when their area of knowledge becomes of public interest. I actually first came across Fauci thanks to a podcast (Science Vs) that had an episode about pandemics before Covid-19 appeared. I think it might have been earlier in 2019. And they had him back on once Covid-19 was here... there was a sense from the hosts and Fauci that they'd never expected him to become a household name in the interim.

[greg]

"My body my choice" is an idiotic argument that pretends the consequences of your infection magically stop at the boundaries of your body.

Why are we still using this argument? We all know you can pass it on to others if you get vaccinated. In fact, it seems likelier that you will, because symptoms might be mild enough for you that you don't know you're sick, so you won't be quarantined and unknowingly spread it.

[Madiel]

Why are we still using this argument? We all know you can pass it on to others if you get vaccinated. In fact, it seems likelier that you will, because symptoms might be mild enough for you that you don't know you're sick, so you won't be quarantined and unknowingly spread it.

Seems likelier?

Um, no. Thanks for your little bit of amateur reasoning, but the actual science on this shows that vaccinated people who get infected shed less virus and consequently infect fewer people. This stuff is actually studied you know. We don't have to rely on a hypothesis that greg figured out, we can actually go check. We can actually explode the assumption that you made that all infections are equally infectious. For example:

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/12/vaccinated-who-get-breakthrough-infections-less-contagious/

We're still using this argument because it's true. The fact that you don't LIKE it is neither here nor there. The fact that you don't understand the difference between vaccination being an absolute guarantee and vaccination being about risk reduction for both you and those around you, hopefully we can work on.

[Spotted Horses]

Seems likelier?

Um, no. Thanks for your little bit of amateur reasoning, but the actual science on this shows that vaccinated people who get infected shed less virus and consequently infect fewer people. This stuff is actually studied you know. We don't have to rely on a hypothesis that greg figured out, we can actually go check. We can actually explode the assumption that you made that all infections are equally infectious. For example:

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/12/vaccinated-who-get-breakthrough-infections-less-contagious/

We're still using this argument because it's true. The fact that you don't LIKE it is neither here nor there. The fact that you don't understand the difference between vaccination being an absolute guarantee and vaccination being about risk reduction for both you and those around you, hopefully we can work on.

Thank you for pointing that out.

[Karl Henning]

Seems likelier?

Um, no. Thanks for your little bit of amateur reasoning, but the actual science on this shows that vaccinated people who get infected shed less virus and consequently infect fewer people. This stuff is actually studied you know. We don't have to rely on a hypothesis that greg figured out, we can actually go check. We can actually explode the assumption that you made that all infections are equally infectious. For example:

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/12/vaccinated-who-get-breakthrough-infections-less-contagious/

We're still using this argument because it's true. The fact that you don't LIKE it is neither here nor there. The fact that you don't understand the difference between vaccination being an absolute guarantee and vaccination being about risk reduction for both you and those around you, hopefully we can work on.

Thank you for pointing that out.

+ 1

[Spotted Horses]

Got my booster today. Sore arm.

[Holden]

Seems likelier?

Um, no. Thanks for your little bit of amateur reasoning, but the actual science on this shows that vaccinated people who get infected shed less virus and consequently infect fewer people. This stuff is actually studied you know. We don't have to rely on a hypothesis that greg figured out, we can actually go check. We can actually explode the assumption that you made that all infections are equally infectious. For example:

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/12/vaccinated-who-get-breakthrough-infections-less-contagious/

We're still using this argument because it's true. The fact that you don't LIKE it is neither here nor there. The fact that you don't understand the difference between vaccination being an absolute guarantee and vaccination being about risk reduction for both you and those around you, hopefully we can work on.

Bolded are the salient points and you are right in that many people don't understand it. Whether this is because the media haven't tried to explain it to the public or many of the public don't want to understand is a moot point. Bottom line for me. I'm now triple vaxxed and I understand that this will not necessarily prevent me from contracting Covid. I also understand that the data strongly suggests that if I do get Covid the effect will probably be mild or even less and that I will be less likely to transmit it to others.

The issue is that so many seem to want 'absolutes' and as you've pointed out, vaccination will not guarantee that. According to Benjamin Franklin (and I've taken a bit of liberty with his quote) there are only two absolutes in life - death and taxes

[Harry]

Got the booster recently, no side effects at all. There probably will be a third and fourth booster vaccination. According to New Zealand scientists the virus will die out after Omikron, Lets see if that happens.

[Madiel]

Bolded are the salient points and you are right in that many people don't understand it. Whether this is because the media haven't tried to explain it to the public or many of the public don't want to understand is a moot point. Bottom line for me. I'm now triple vaxxed and I understand that this will not necessarily prevent me from contracting Covid. I also understand that the data strongly suggests that if I do get Covid the effect will probably be mild or even less and that I will be less likely to transmit it to others.

The issue is that so many seem to want 'absolutes' and as you've pointed out, vaccination will not guarantee that. According to Benjamin Franklin (and I've taken a bit of liberty with his quote) there are only two absolutes in life - death and taxes

Quite. In other news, people in cars wearing seatbelts and people on bicycles/motorcycles wearing helmets still die in accidents sometimes. But a lot less frequently than people without seatbelts or helmets.

In the case of seatbelts, around 50 years ago there were people who argued endlessly about why they shouldn't have to wear them.

[Que]

Got my booster today. Sore arm.

Same here, got the shot yesterday. I'm anticipating some more side effects, like after the 2nd shot.

[Harry]

Same here, got the shot yesterday. I'm anticipating some more side effects, like after the 2nd shot.

Or not! Always be positive Que