USA Politics (redux)

[drogulus]

I don't care what Trump thought about it. But the media sure did.

     Trump was President. It was a big story. Note that Trump was peddling false narratives that 1) the virus was a Chinese bio-weapon and 2) it was no big deal, both a "kung" and a "flu"!

[greg]

     Trump was President. It was a big story. Note that Trump was peddling false narratives that 1) the virus was a Chinese bio-weapon and 2) it was no big deal, both a "kung" and a "flu"!

Well, sure, any of those narratives deserves criticism.
But anything to do with lab leak theories one year ago was deemed a conspiracy theory. Now, all of a sudden, it isn't.
It's also possible to look at the clues and make up one's own mind, rather than listening to the MSM (and be a year behind the curve), or listen to Trump (god forbid).

[drogulus]

But anything to do with lab leak theories one year ago was deemed a conspiracy theory. Now, all of a sudden, it isn't.

     It is a conspiracy theory. It might also be the case that there was a lab accident. There is no all of a sudden about it.

It's also possible to look at the clues and make up one's own mind, rather than listening to the MSM (and be a year behind the curve), or listen to Trump (god forbid).

     It's listening to the MSM that causes me to conclude that animal to human transmission occurred elsewhere, in part because no evidence has been introduced that the lab had that particular virus, and colleagues of the Wuhan virologists don't think they did. That lab doesn't keep secrets about the viruses it studies. It looks like a nonexistent non-barking dog. However, though that's not the most likely explanation, it's possible the lab had the virus and didn't tell anyone. It's not likely in my view, but stranger things are sometimes true, so we should investigate that possibility.

     I don't get why you think getting news from the MSM through the intermediary of your favored sources is an advantage. It doesn't seem to be producing any results from what you say.

[SimonNZ]

Well, sure, any of those narratives deserves criticism.
But anything to do with lab leak theories one year ago was deemed a conspiracy theory. Now, all of a sudden, it isn't.
It's also possible to look at the clues and make up one's own mind, rather than listening to the MSM (and be a year behind the curve), or listen to Trump (god forbid).

No, it was deemed "not where the evidence currently available is pointing". And people weren't merely following the "MSM" they were following scientists and experts speaking via the MSM. I don't know what you think "look at the clues and make up one's own mind" means, when the experts know far more than you and can interpret the data in ways you can not. Who were you following who had better information?

Also worth reiterating that no new evidence has entered the public domain for you to be crowing that your personal belief has been vindicated. The investigation has been widened to reconsider the possibility.

And hypothetically if it turns out it did originate as an escape from the lab I'd be somewhat sympathetic to the Chinese spin "we couldn't give this information to Trump who would have used it recklessly and cynically and would have only compounded the crisis"

edit: (x-posted with drogulus)

[milk]

No, it was deemed "not where the evidence currently available is pointing". And people weren't merely following the "MSM" they were following scientists and experts speaking via the MSM. I don't know what you think "look at the clues and make up one's own mind" means, when the experts know far more than you and can interpret the data in ways you can not. Who were you following who had better information?

Also worth reiterating that no new evidence has entered the public domain for you to be crowing that your personal belief has been vindicated. The investigation has been widened to reconsider the possibility.

And hypothetically if it turns out it did originate as an escape from the lab I'd be somewhat sympathetic to the Chinese spin "we couldn't give this information to Trump who would have used it recklessly and cynically and would have only compounded the crisis"

edit: (x-posted with drogulus)

Wow! That's really amazing. I mean the idea that China might have lied and failed to warn the world, that this gets your sympathy in any scenario is amazing. I have to agree with Greg. Now, some of the top virologists in the world are saying it's possible that this was a lab leak. I too poo-pooed this as a crazy conspiracy theory (as did segments of the media) and a lot of that was due to trump. Yes, it's understandable because trump always said so many stupid and crazy things. I think if people dug a little they might have been more critical of the arguments at the time and who was making them and why. Fauci is involved in the research at Wuhan, something I also dismissed as too obvious to be meaningful. I do think we need to go with the consensus in science but we need to make sure there really is a strong consensus and always be open to political factors. Obviously, in hindsight, scientists didn't have a strong basis for accepting China's story and there were some real warning signs that there just wasn't enough science there yet. I think trump-hatred definitely fed into what was being believed last year as opposed to now. This is partially trump's fault for crying wolf all the time. I don't know where this disease came from but it seems scientists do not have a basis for strong confidence either. Maybe we will never know. Thank China for that also and don't excuse it!   

[drogulus]

Now, some of the top virologists in the world are saying it's possible that this was a lab leak.

     When a scientist says something is possible it does not mean probable. That story hasn't changed.

     The investigation exists to find out what happened and to remove an obstacle to international cooperation on pandemic threats coming from China and other Asian countries. This is too important to allow Trumpist hatesplaining to corrupt decision making, whether there was anything amiss at the lab or not.

[Fëanor]

Well, Fascism and Communism have a lot in common --- in many respects they are virtually indistinguishable...

They are alike in that both tend to be totalitarian;  they are very different in other respects.

It seems to me that many Americans ignorantly associate any degree of socialism with Soviet-style Communism.

Soviet Communism included both (a) totalitarianism, and (b) complete central planning of the economy.  I'm not aware of any prominent American politicians who advocate for either of these things.  However some American conservatives delight in insinuating or frankly accusing progressive Democrats of these wanting these things -- that is a slander.

OTOH, the alt-Right panders misinformation, conspiracy theories, and the "Big Lie" of the stolen election.  These things plus district gerrymandering, unrestricted campaign contributions, and voter restrictions, are a direct attack on democracy and pave the road to dictatorship whence totalitarianism.

[drogulus]

They are alike in that both tend to be totalitarian;  they are very different in other respects.

It seems to me that many Americans ignorantly associate any degree of socialism with Soviet-style Communism.

     They hate liberal democracy. Communists and fascists treat liberal democrats and socialists as their most dangerous enemies and they are right to do so.

     American conservatives have sponsored this confusion for their own motives. Do they believe their own propaganda? I don't think it is a requirement that they do so long as they can put on a good show.

[greg]

Who were you following who had better information?

You remember that one video I shared a year ago that you dismissed as seeming "conspiracy-like?" That one.
Precisely because this guy is fluent in Chinese and had the information that the Chinese government was trying to cover up. And if the CCP is known for anything, it's cover-ups and whataboutism.
That was the meaning of "look at the clues and make up your own mind," the clues were in that video.
There was never any evidence that it came from the wet market, but what a coincidence with the lab being there studying the viruses at that exact time, and researchers dying from it. And because of that, I remember being dismissed by Karl as a conspiracy theorist ("coincidences? that's how conspiracy theorists think").
MSM may be right or wrong. Source, or experts, is not necessarily equal to truth. Good to listen to them in general as a rule of thumb, though (I have always believed them on the idea of it originating in animals and not created in the lab, because it seems like scientists could be more certain of something like that).

I think trump-hatred definitely fed into what was being believed last year as opposed to now. This is partially trump's fault for crying wolf all the time.

Absolutely. People gotta look past Trump. And also, he could helped by closing his blabbering mouth a bit more.

     It is a conspiracy theory. It might also be the case that there was a lab accident. There is no all of a sudden about it.

The only conspiracy theory I'm aware of is the one where people say it was deliberately created (from scratch) in the lab. Which I never believed.
Lab leak, lab accident, those are the same thing to be clear.

[drogulus]

     Prices up 3.6 percent annually in April, reflecting upward trend, but policymakers say it's temporary

     I see. The inflation is an "upward trend", which is a reference to a theory of inflation that the world constantly refutes, and it's also said to be temporary, which is a reference to how shitty the theory is when you try to make predictions based on it.

     The theory states something to the effect that inflation will cause an upward spiral of rising prices such that price A will raise price B which will raise price A more, making it necessary to break the spiral by breaking the economy into deflation as a cure.

     What the world shows is that inflation is like a rock thrown into a pond that produces ripples that decay, so that unless you keep throwing rocks the inflation subsides to the base level without creating a need for a "reserve army of the unemployed".

     To counter the unfortunate intrusion of facts about the world into inflation theory you will hear arguments about inflation "expectations", a more easily manipulable faux variable than the real thing, or "monetary inflation", which amounts to including inflation that doesn't happen but "should" in the mix. Now you can get whatever result you want.

[Florestan]

Wow! That's really amazing. I mean the idea that China might have lied and failed to warn the world, that this gets your sympathy in any scenario is amazing.

Amazing is an understatement. The idea that because of implacable hatred for one person someone would feel sympathetic to a totalitarian government which might have lied to the whole world and deliberately kept secret the leak of a virus which subsequently killed three-and-a-half million people and still counting is simply mind-boggling.

[drogulus]

     U.S. Is Said to Have Unexamined Intel to Pore Over on Virus's Origin

One allied nation passed on information that three workers in the Wuhan virological laboratory were hospitalized with serious flulike symptoms in the autumn of 2019. The information about the sickened workers is considered important, but officials cautioned that it did not constitute evidence that they caught the virus at the laboratory — they may have brought it there.

      That's one explanation, and has immediate plausibility if it turns out to be true that people at the lab got sick. They got sick the same way other people in Wuhan did. The virus didn't leak out from the lab, it leaked in.

      One of the things China may be trying to cover up is that they don't know what happened. In a dictatorship information doesn't freely flow up, and it appears the Wuhan bosses didn't want to deliver bad news to the national leadership.

[SimonNZ]

Amazing is an understatement. The idea that because of implacable hatred for one person someone would feel sympathetic to a totalitarian government which might have lied to the whole world and deliberately kept secret the leak of a virus which subsequently killed three-and-a-half million people and still counting is simply mind-boggling.

Yeah, thanks. That was exactly the reaction I would have expected from you. What I would have liked is for China to have been transparent and asked and allowed world disease experts to go and test wherever they needed and report and advise without censorship.

My hypothetical upthread is modeled not on my "implacable hatred for one person", but on trying to imagine how the Chinese government might view coming clean to a tantrum throwing toddler with a nuclear arsenal who has already been saber-rattling about China and who would act geopolitically with only whatever polled well with his racist base.

In this scenario if knowledge of the virus was known worldwide from the time Wuhan went into quarantine I can easily imagine China's attitude if they knew it was a lab escape especially toward the Trump USA being that providing that fact wont create common cause for a solution but rather treated cynically as at best a political opportunity and at worst a pretext for some form of war.

Now you try to imagine: what would Trump have done differently had it been know this started as a lab escape? Listened to the experts and followed their advise and let them advise the public? Really: tell me what you imagine.

For a bonus imagine this: how transparent would the US government, and especially the Trump government, have been about a government-run lab escape as the source of an outbreak?

[SimonNZ]

You remember that one video I shared a year ago that you dismissed as seeming "conspiracy-like?" That one.
Precisely because this guy is fluent in Chinese and had the information that the Chinese government was trying to cover up. And if the CCP is known for anything, it's cover-ups and whataboutism.
That was the meaning of "look at the clues and make up your own mind," the clues were in that video.
There was never any evidence that it came from the wet market, but what a coincidence with the lab being there studying the viruses at that exact time, and researchers dying from it. And because of that, I remember being dismissed by Karl as a conspiracy theorist ("coincidences? that's how conspiracy theorists think").
MSM may be right or wrong. Source, or experts, is not necessarily equal to truth. Good to listen to them in general as a rule of thumb, though (I have always believed them on the idea of it originating in animals and not created in the lab, because it seems like scientists could be more certain of something like that).

"That one video". Okay.

Did Covid come from a Wuhan lab? What we know so far

I especially liked "Many aspects of Wuhan lab leak story have echoes of the search for WMD in the run-up to the Iraq war in 2003 which included efforts to "stove pipe" intelligence analysis to fit the operating theory.Then as now, experts (then weapons inspectors also under the aegis of a UN body) were sent into a highly obstructive environment amid a highly politicised debate. Leaks of dubious intelligence – some of it provided by third party countries like the infamous Curveball claims – were reported without sufficient scepticism and expert warnings sidelined."

[Karl Henning]

     When a scientist says something is possible it does not mean probable. That story hasn't changed.

And conspiracy theorists strive on mapping "possible" onto "gotta be true!"

[Karl Henning]

You remember that one video I shared a year ago that you dismissed as seeming "conspiracy-like?" That one.

At times you are unwittingly amusing, you know.

[Florestan]

Yeah, thanks. That was exactly the reaction I would have expected from you.

Another posted reacted along the same lines long before I did.

My hypothetical upthread is modeled not on my "implacable hatred for one person", but on trying to imagine how the Chinese government might view coming clean to a tantrum throwing toddler with a nuclear arsenal who has already been saber-rattling about China and who would act geopolitically with only whatever polled well with his racist base.

In this scenario if knowledge of the virus was known worldwide from the time Wuhan went into quarantine I can easily imagine China's attitude if they knew it was a lab escape especially toward the Trump USA being that providing that fact wont create common cause for a solution but rather treated cynically as at best a political opportunity and at worst a pretext for some form of war.

Now you try to imagine: what would Trump have done differently had it been know this started as a lab escape? Listened to the experts and followed their advise and let them advise the public? Really: tell me what you imagine.

Oh, yeah, I'm pretty sure he'd have nuked Beijing --- and Moscow, just in case. 

For a bonus imagine this: how transparent would the US government, and especially the Trump government, have been about a government-run lab escape as the source of an outbreak?

Whataboutism.

[SimonNZ]

I don't want your knee-jerk easy sarcasm. I want you to actually consider the questions.

[Florestan]

I don't want your knee-jerk easy sarcasm. I want you to actually consider the questions.

I gave them all the consideration they warranted and answered accordingly.

What I would have liked is for China to have been transparent and asked and allowed world disease experts to go and test wherever they needed and report and advise without censorship.

Had they behaved that way, they'd have had the higher moral ground over any subsequent Trump hostile rhetoric and policies, and undoubtedly the full support of the international community.

But then again, they simply couldn't have behaved that way, because transparency, openness and lack of censorship are antithetical to totalitarianism, which treats them as mortal ennemies (and rightly so).

[SimonNZ]

I gave them all the consideration they warranted and answered accordingly.

No. You dodged with lazy sarcasm.

Try answering without lazy sarcasm.