Europe at War

[Herman]

His army will suffer more losses and won't be able to occupy Ukraine long term. For ordinary Russians the mass killing of a "brother people" in what according to Putin is a part of Russia, will be a severe shock.

Putin c.s. control the domestic media, so in his mind no one in Russia knows how things are going down in Ukraine.

That's why it's smart to have captured or injured Russian soldiers calling their moms   -  even though it's pretty iffy ethically.

However I'm reading stuff about Russia moving in really heavy artillery now near Kyev, think thermobaric and, eventually nuclear, and he's probably going to destroy the entire city if that's what it takes. Not just the ugly Soviet style apartment buildings and offices, but also the historic city that was there before Moscow even existed.

[Rinaldo]

What does this even mean?

In all his gambles (2nd Chechen war, Crimea, targeted assassinations) Putin seemed immune to any serious consquences. Now he's finally stepped into a blunder that might turn his own against him. The European hunger to see him fall is stronger than what it might look from across the ocean.

Ukraine is about more than Putin.

True.

[Herman]

Well maybe this is small beer, but Poetin has declared that his nuclear missiles are made ready, targeting Europe and the USA. Will someone  be sensible enough to kill this piece of utter shit.

you need to say 'please' first.

[Scion7]

eventually nuclear, ...

No need to worry about that.
It won't happen, for all kinds of reasons, mainly the Russian regime's desire to keep on living.
But beyond that, the Strategic Rocket Forces of the RF are extremely professional, and an erratic order such as that would cause the marshals to make a change immediately.

[Harry]

Van der Leyden is proposing to add Ukraine into the EU, not NATO mind. That opens all kind if scenarios I guess.

[Florestan]

the majority of the Ukrainian population still speaks Russian as a first language

False. According to the last census (2001) Ukrainian is the native language of 67.53% of the population while Russian accounts for only 29.59 %, ie less than a half.

I don't think either Putin or Zelensky wants to see Kiev turned into Aleppo—Putin wants an intact capital city for a friendly puppet regime, and Zelensky wants an intact country to rule over. But Biden, Scholz, Macron, Johnson, etc, certainly seem to want that.

I see. Putin invades a sovereign and independent country without the slightest valid casus belli, the Russian Army bombs and rockets residential areas, killing and maiming civilians and causing a massive wave of refugees in the neighboring countries, yet the war criminals are the Western leaders.

What a stinking load of bullshit.

[71 dB]

According to a recent gallup the amount of Finns who think Finland should join NATO has risen from about 30 % to 53 %.

[Todd]

A Russian leader who's not trying to get a do-over of the Cold War

That's not what Putin is doing.

The European hunger to see him fall is stonger than what it might look from across the ocean.

That does not appear to be the case.  In some nations, perhaps.

Putin invades a sovereign and independent country without the slightest valid casus belli

Valid casus belli seem pretty rare.

[Scion7]

That does not appear to be the case.  In some nations, perhaps.

?  What country in Europe not occupied by Russia is "supporting" Putin???
The hatred is widespread and deep at this point.

[Todd]

?  What country in Europe not occupied by Russia is "supporting" Putin???
The hatred is widespread and deep at this point.

No "non-occupied" country appears to be supporting him, but that is rather different than wanting to see Putin fall.  Granted, I must rely on skewed news sources, both American and European, but the relationship between Russia and various European nations seems more complicated than presented on GMG.  For instance, were Putin forced from power somehow - and I am not sure of the mechanisms available to do that, though murder has been floated on this forum multiple times now - what guarantees are there that whoever comes next will be better/nicer/more pliable, etc?  Most of what I have read indicates that European leaders claim to want the war to end and a status quo ante established, after which some type of negotiations regarding sanctions relief, security, etc, would take place.

[Scion7]

The next Russian leader would no doubt be a right-royal bloody bastard, but the whole reason that Putin would have been removed from power in the first place was because the inner circle realized that the war in Ukraine was a huge mistake, and the new bugger would reverse course.

[Florestan]

?  What country in Europe not occupied by Russia is "supporting" Putin???

Serbia.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-moscow-belarus-serbia-europe-731476cc760c95e8e4fb78c8566e72fe

https://balkaninsight.com/2022/02/25/serbian-pro-regime-media-praise-russia-overrunning-ukraine/

In light of the Kosovo thing, their position is completely understandable, though.

[Todd]

The next Russian leader would no doubt be a right-royal bloody bastard, but the whole reason that Putin would have been removed from power in the first place was because the inner circle realized that the war in Ukraine was a huge mistake, and the new bugger would reverse course.

Which members of the Russian "inner circle" currently wish to pursue the course of action you describe? 

[Scion7]

LOL, I don't have their personal names.
But the military considers themselves the protectors of the country - whatever politico who began a move to remove Putin will have to have the Marshals on his side.  It's been done before.

[Scion7]

Serbia.

Ah, yes, I'd forgotten about them.
But then again, on my map, Belgrade is part of "Greater Croatia"   

[Que]

Most of what I have read indicates that European leaders claim to want the war to end and a status quo ante established, after which some type of negotiations regarding sanctions relief, security, etc, would take place.

Looking at for instance Germany, the expectation or even desire to return to the status quo ante has been abandoned. And rightly so.

[Florestan]

Ah, yes, I'd forgotten about them.
But then again, on my map, Belgrade is part of "Greater Croatia"   

Btw, your map is just as revisionist as Putin's map. If I reported it to the mods, they'd surely ask you to remove it.   

[MusicTurner]

LOL, I don't have their personal names.
But the military considers themselves the protectors of the country - whatever politico who began a move to remove Putin will have to have the Marshals on his side.  It's been done before.

Mark Galeotti, a fairly well-studied observer, considers for example the PM Mishustin, an economist, and the defense minister Shoigu fairly moderate, Shoigu being a possible scheduled succesor for Putin. I've heard Shoigu say some very militant stuff though, but on the other hand he knows about the cost of this invasion, and he looked uncomfortable at the notorious public council meeting. The humiliated security boss was Naryshkin.

Needless to say, there are many other, more obscure names (to the Western public), and it could very likely be one of those in stead, I guess.

[MusicTurner]

Looking at for instance Germany, the expectation or even desire to return the the status quo ante has been abandoned. And rightly so.

True. A big-scale shift. I watched a German debate between politicians yesterday evening, on ZDF, and they were without illusions. Except Die Linke party, has some restraint, like always. EDIT: And AfD.

[Todd]

But the military considers themselves the protectors of the country - whatever politico who began a move to remove Putin will have to have the Marshals on his side.  It's been done before.

Coups have indeed occurred before, but they are not particularly easy to pull off in all situations.  I'm not sure what you mean when you reference Marshals, but the obviously non-comprehensive pieces I read in various foreign policy journals (eg, Foreign Affairs) indicate that the military is subordinate to other entities, most notably the security services.  Are military leaders in a position to pull off a coup? 

Looking at for instance Germany, the expectation or even desire to return the the status quo ex ante has been abandoned. And rightly so.

German policy responses appear inconsistent.  On the one hand, they talk tough and will engage in (profitable) proxy war, and they will boost their defense spending to meet their NATO obligations.  (Well, that's what they say.)  Yet, at least according to US news sources, despite these tough measures and tough talk on diplomacy, the Germans are still open to talks.  And, crucially, the SWIFT sanctions are limited.

Needless to say, there are many other, more obscure names (to the Western public), and it could very likely be one of those in stead, I guess.

Like who?