Europe at War

[MusicTurner]

It turns out that there are various interpretations of those Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan news - including that of Kazakhstan simply preparing to defend itself, or sending troops, perhaps secretly, to help Russia.  Both countries are in a 'defense union' with Russia, but Kazakhstan has declared itself neutral in the Ukraine War & has some Western connections too.

The presented news above might be only rumours, though. Time will tell.

[drogulus]

     A nuclear power plant is on fire after Russian shelling. The video is being shown on CNN.

[T. D.]

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-a3092d8e476949ed7c55607a645a9154

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — A spokesman for Europe's largest nuclear plant says the facility is on fire after Russia attacked the power station in the southern Ukrainian city of Enerhodar.

A government official tells The Associated Press elevated levels of radiation are being detected near the site of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which provides about 25% of the country's power generation.

The official spoke on condition of anonymity because the information has not yet been publicly released.

Plant spokesman Andriy Tuz told Ukrainian television that it is urgent to stop the fighting to put out the flames.

Enerhodar is a city on the Dnieper River that accounts for one-quarter of the country's power generation.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE.

[amw]

At the moment the fire is most likely in an administrative building in the plant complex, several hundred meters from the actual reactors. The risk does not appear to be immediate loss of cooling/containment breach, but rather the likelihood that continued fighting in the plant complex will prevent first responders from arriving and cause the fire to spread out of control. There does not appear to be any risk of a Chernobyl situation, at least according to nuclear scientists, although they do emphasise that there is a wide range of "less dangerous than Chernobyl" situations that are still possible.

The claim that radiation levels are elevated also appears to be incorrect (according to a clarification by Andriy Tuz). Online monitoring gauges show a very slight increase but well within the normal margin of error, and probably attributable to the fire itself rather than any release of radioactive material.

(This is not to say it's good for nuclear plants to be on fire or whatever. Firing antitank missiles at any part of a nuclear plant is a phenomenally stupid idea, and, if there are civilian workers inside, probably also a war crime. It's more to say don't panic just yet.)

[JBS]

Twitter is currently alive with shouting and confusion. There are people expecting nuclear fallout at any moment, people claiming a leak is highly improbable, people claiming all sorts of things.

In line with what amw just posted:

The fighting seems to be around the entrances to the complex, thus not where the reactors are positioned inside, but it's not clear where the fire is relative to the reactors and whatever power is used for the cooling systems.
It seems firefighters have been kept from entering the complex by Russian troops.

This reactor has a different design from Chernobyl, supposedly better suited to contain leaks.

[amw]

There is theoretically a live stream (on YouTube) from the power plant and a radiation gauge, updated live every ten minutes, but I haven't been able to access either one, probably due to an excess of traffic. Everything I'm hearing is passed on from an acquaintance who's watching Ukrainian TV and translating for me. (Andriy Tuz was on air about 20 minutes ago; he also apparently mentioned that firefighters had gained access to an administrative building. Unclear what happened to the Russian attackers but I assume they were pushed back.)

[JBS]

Some on Twitter is posting clips from the livestream. If I can find it again, I'll post the link.

[JBS]

Here's the link, although apparently the livestream has been shut down

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1499564768344035336

[Mandryka]

I rather agree with this comment from a former Finnish Prime Minister:

Vladimir Putin's has achieved "the opposite of what he wanted", the former Finnish prime minister has said, in a stark warning that highlights the difficulties now facing the Russian President one week into his invasion of Ukraine.

Despite claiming to be "liberating and de-Nazifying" Ukraine (claims much of the international community rejects), the Russian president has only cemented his position as a "global pariah" who has united almost every nation in its condemnation of his actions.

Alexander Stubb, who served as the Finnish PM from 2014-15, tweeted: "Putin has achieved in one week the exact opposite of what he wanted: i.e. the Europeanisation of Ukraine, revitalisation of the Transatlantic relationship, the rejuvenation of Nato, unity of the EU and a radical shift in support for Nato membership in Finland and Sweden."

I think it's highly unlikely that this is about liberating and de-nazifying anything! It is about securing Russia's borders from NATO agression, it is about taking over and exploiting natural resources in the present day Ukraine.

[Christabel]

Prof. Niall Ferguson says it's also about Russia not wanting Ukraine to become a successful democracy as this would show up Russia and its autocratic system of plundering oligarchs.

[Christabel]

There is theoretically a live stream (on YouTube) from the power plant and a radiation gauge, updated live every ten minutes, but I haven't been able to access either one, probably due to an excess of traffic. Everything I'm hearing is passed on from an acquaintance who's watching Ukrainian TV and translating for me. (Andriy Tuz was on air about 20 minutes ago; he also apparently mentioned that firefighters had gained access to an administrative building. Unclear what happened to the Russian attackers but I assume they were pushed back.)

This will almost certainly result in Europe coming into this war, widening its scope.  Somebody has to do something about that mad dog Putin.  The botoxed, geriatric pygmy needs another "Bolshevik Revolution.

[vandermolen]

Prof. Niall Ferguson says it's also about Russia not wanting Ukraine to become a successful democracy as this would show up Russia and its autocratic system of plundering oligarchs.

I think that Ferguson is right.

[Mandryka]

I think that Ferguson is right.

Ukraine without the Crimean peninsular is very poor.  Hard to imagine it becoming a successful anything in the near future. The president of the Ukraine is not beyond reproach when it comes to plundering oligarchs.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/oct/03/revealed-anti-oligarch-ukrainian-president-offshore-connections-volodymyr-zelenskiy

[Scion7]

The Russians have occupied that nuclear plant and the fire in the administrative-training building is out.
I think the danger of needing a "Cherenkov Florestan" avatar has been averted.

[Todd]

Nothing alarmist here, from www.ready.gov, last updated yesterday: Nuclear Explosion 

Also remember Covid sticks around after a nuclear blast:

Try to maintain a distance of at least six feet between yourself and people who are not part of your household. If possible, wear a mask if you're sheltering with people who are not a part of your household.

[Spotted Horses]

Ukraine without the Crimean peninsular is very poor.  Hard to imagine it becoming a successful anything in the near future. The president of the Ukraine is not beyond reproach when it comes to plundering oligarchs.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/oct/03/revealed-anti-oligarch-ukrainian-president-offshore-connections-volodymyr-zelenskiy

According to the world bank, the GDP per capita is about $10,000 for Russia, but only $4,000 for Ukraine. (By comparison, the U.S. is at about $60,000) I don't think Russia has any worries about being shown up by Ukraine. I think Putin's motivation is what he pretty openly says it is, to reclaim territory that is rightly (in his view) part of Russia, to restore Russia's prestige in the world, and to avoid having bordering countries that are not in Russia's sphere of influence.

[Todd]

Russian anger as Senator Lindsey Graham calls for Putin's assassination

Doesn't this violate Twitter's terms of service?

[LKB]

Russian anger as Senator Lindsey Graham calls for Putin's assassination

Doesn't this violate Twitter's terms of service?

I should think so.

What a dumb ass... there are probably a billion people around the world hoping Vlad the Mad encounters some high-velocity lead poisoning, but for a sitting US senator to publicly call for it is the height of idiocy, even for a Trumpkin.

[drogulus]

     The Ukes have foiled 3 assassination attempts by Russian/Chechen elements. There are apparently double agents in the FSB according to spokesNazi druggies defending Mr. Z.

     I appreciate Lindsey Graham for his weathervane-ish dexterity. No "Putin! Putin!" for him.

[Jo498]

I think Putin's motivation is what he pretty openly says it is, to reclaim territory that is rightly (in his view) part of Russia, to restore Russia's prestige in the world, and to avoid having bordering countries that are not in Russia's sphere of influence.

It's mainly sphere of influence or rather buffer zones without NATO missiles and the eastern Ukrainian regions. Putin already had the Crimea and would probably have been able to secure the Donezk and Lugansk regions without an outright attack on the Ukraine although the ongoing skirmishes there were certainly a major reason (and it's not a mere pretext, despite the exaggerated language of De-nazification and preventing genocide).

A neutral Ukraine would be acceptable to Russia, a NATO-aligned never will be (cf. the Cuba crisis or imagine Canada becoming a Chinese satellite). And I read a comment by someone very familiar with Russia who thinks that something (such as preparation for "Western" military bases or worse in Ukraine) must have happened in the last three months because the outright attack on a people mostly perceived as "brothers" is a desperate measure and it's also a bad season for a military campaign. But this guy thinks that Putin apparently felt such pressure that he could not wait another month. He is not a mad dog, but obviously felt badly cornered and thus reacted accordingly.

The terrible thing is that there seems no real way out. After a war, Ukraine now has a larger incentive to join the West/NATO than before, even if the country is split somehow, the Western half will not want to become a Russian satellite or neutral. So the needed buffer zone will not appear.

And I am not sure if those wishing Putin gone would be happy with typical successors.