Europe at War

[Florestan]

Any thoughts how this is all going to end? 

It's the beginning of the end for the scelerate Putin and his regime. An overconfident, hubris-filled aggressive dictator grossly miscalculated. Nothing new under the sun, actually. Quem Deus perdere vult, prius dementat.

Unfortunately, his downfall will come at the price of much suffering and destruction.

[Que]

It's the beginning of the end for the scelerate Putin and his regime. An overconfident, hubris-filled aggressive dictator grossly miscalculated. Nothing new under the sun, actually. Quem Deus perdere vult, prius dementat.

Unfortunately, his downfall will come at the price of much suffering and destruction.

I hope you are right about Putin's downfall.

But at the moment he seems to try to pull off a Stalin-act.... Will the Russian establishment let him?

[Spotted Horses]

I was surprised that, as I read, the Duma passed legislation making it a criminal offense punishable by substantial prison time to criticize the war. Up until now they have not resorted to such tactics, and have relied on flooding the field with propaganda and disinformation. Apparently that's not enough now. How are Russians to believe this is about "denazification" of Ukraine when their own government us using the fascist playbook?

[Florestan]

I hope you are right about Putin's downfall.

But at the moment he seems to try to pull off a Stalin-act.... Will the Russian establishment let him?

This is the question.

I think the red line is the nuclear option.

[T. D.]

The Duma vote was unanimous, btw. Hit the headlines over 24 hours ago.

[Florestan]

I was surprised that, as I read, the Duma passed legislation making it a criminal offense punishable by substantial prison time to criticize the war.

Knowing the history of the USSR and of the Socialist Republic of Romania, I was not.

The Duma is not a genuine parliament by any stretch of imagination. It's an echo chamber of the scelerate Putin.

[Herman]

Enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine is an act of war, says Putin.

It's just a matter of time and we're all in, Pute keeps escalating.

[Florestan]

Enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine is an act of war, says Putin.

It's just a matter of time and we're all in, Pute keeps escalating.

Do you believe WW3 has already begun? I ask because I'm genuinely interested in your opinion. Personally I hope not but I am not sure.

[Todd]

IMO the next challenge for the West will be, apart from adapting militarily and economically to the new situation, to play hardball with China.

What does "play hardball with China" mean?  And which states can play hardball?  Even if Germany rearms, Europe will not have sufficient hard power to have any effect in that realm - which is critical in addressing security concerns in the South China Sea and East China Sea, as well as the Strait of Malacca - and whatever soft power Europeans may think they may possess won't amount to much, if anything.  Being a large market is one thing, but China has de facto control over some specialized economic factors of production as well as massive production capacity, and quasi-captive markets and economic partners due to the BRI - including right into Europe.  Despite an obvious belief in The West that The West is more beneficent, etc, there are reasons why BRI has so many takers, among them the predatory, destructive, exploitative behaviors of The West.  China certainly faces challenges that can be exploited for strategic purposes, but it presents an entirely different challenge than Russia.  Not incidentally, it may become necessary to partner with, of all countries, Russia in dealing with China.

Indeed. Provocating Putin by joining NATO cannot be much of a concern anymore..

Incorrect.  Best to live by the old adage that Russia is never as strong as she seems, Russia is never as weak as she seems.

And yes, the expansion of NATO is one of the original causes of the current situation.  The West went back on its agreement with the Soviet Union as it collapsed.  In addition to various foreign policy academics, practical men like former Secretary of Defense William Perry even acknowledged that expansion helped precipitate Russian actions.  There is a very good chance that many people will choose, perhaps willfully, to not learn any lessons from the crisis and instead will adopt more aggressive outlooks, leading to conclusions that The West needs to play hardball.

Any thoughts how this is all going to end? 

I would think some type of treaty or other agreement, provided The West does not pursue foolish aggressive tactics including direct military action - eg, No Fly Zones.

[relm1]

Do you believe WW3 has already begun? I ask because I'm genuinely interested in your opinion. Personally, I hope not but I am not sure.

No.  I think a new cold war has begun though.  For WW3, Russia would have to attack one of the big European countries or America directly.  Now it's saber rattling and attacking an Eastern bloc country.  It would have to be a major escalation to get one of the big western powers to fight militarily which gives Russia quite a bit of free reign to attack these poor people, unfortunately.

[Florestan]

The West went back on its agreement with the Soviet Union as it collapsed. 

What agreements did "the West" conclude with the Soviet Union?

[Todd]

What agreements did "the West" conclude with the Soviet Union?

See The Great Delusion.  Also, hundreds of other sources.

[Florestan]

No.  I think a new cold war has begun though.  For WW3, Russia would have to attack one of the big European countries or America directly.

You think that Russia attacking an Eastern European NATO country will not automatically trigger WW3?

[Todd]

You think that Russia attacking an Eastern European NATO country will not automatically trigger WW3?

Paper Warns NATO Might Lack Will to Defend Baltics

It is from 2018, so it is stale now.  In today's ultra-hawkish environment, where everyone is keen to play hardball, The West may end up nuking Moscow if tanks roll into Vilnius.  Or not.

[Florestan]

See The Great Delusion.  Also, hundreds of other sources.

Ah, yes, The Great Delusion and hundreds of other sources. How foolish of me not to think about it. Thanks, I've seen the light now.

[Florestan]

Paper Warns NATO Might Lack Will to Defend Baltics

Call me a hopeless naive but I trust Antony Blinken more than I trust a half-page obscure article on an obscure website.

Moreover and more important, this line:

"Baltic allies' culpability in instigating the crisis or conflict would likely dramatically reduce allied political will to defend the region.

tells me that that half-page obscure article on an obscure webiste is actually a piece of Russian propaganda. Didn't the scelerate Putin just recently tell us that it's Ukraine which instigated the conflict?

[Todd]

Call me a hopeless naive but I trust Antony Blinken more than I trust a half-page obscure article on an obscure website.

Feel free to trust Blinken as much as you wish.

[Todd]

Today: Putin says Western sanctions are akin to declaration of war

2018: It's time we saw economic sanctions for what they really are – war crimes

[Florestan]

Feel free to trust Blinken as much as you wish.

Are you telling me I should not trust a US Secretary of State announcing the US will fulfill their official commitments and defend their official allies?

Also, please see my edit.

[Florestan]

Today: Putin says Western sanctions are akin to declaration of war

2018: It's time we saw economic sanctions for what they really are – war crimes

So what do you suggest? That "the West" acquiesce to whatever the scelerate Putin demands in the name of preserving peace?