Europe at War

[Herman]

The long term threat on a global level is not Russia but China. Which happens to be the US' neighbour and not Europe's.... 

That depends on whether there is a long term. All it takes is for Putin to go crazy.

[Mandryka]

Putin had already been busy getting closer ties with Beijing for a while, in anticipation of this conflict and European sanctions.
Most of the predictions I've read are that the Russian economy is heading for a meltdown.

Russia needs another party to prop up his economy by buying its energy and raw materials, and China needs them.
Both want to expand their sphere of influence by encroaching upon the sovereignty of other nations. They tacitly agreed to have each other's back - it's a perfect marriage of convenience. There are reports that Beijing knew of the invasion and asked the Russians to wait till after the Olympics.

Putin miscalculated and things got out of hand, which took China by surprise as well. The strong message to China should be that throwing a life line to Putin will mean very, very frosty trade relations with the West (US, Europe & allies). China is economically shaky right now... will it take that risk? Maybe not.

Of course Russia is now a big threat because Europe has an aggressive neighbour with a huge army with nuclear capability,  led by an insane dictator. But in the grand scheme of things, Russia is a dying empire with a disfunctional economy. The long term threat on a global level is not Russia but China. Which happens to be the US' neighbour and not Europe's.... 

I think you're underestimating the strength of the Russian economy before the EU sanctions, I don't see why you say it was dysfunctional. Russia is an authoritarian capitalist regime like the Gulf states. I also think that you underestimate the resilience of the Russian economy.

[Madiel]

The long term threat on a global level is not Russia but China. Which happens to be the US' neighbour and not Europe's.... 

Beijing is several thousand kilometres closer to Kyiv than it is to Los Angeles. The Pacific Ocean is large.

[Mandryka]

Sanctions have been introduced for less than a week, and they are continually expanding. Time flies, especially in our modern society, but that's being too impatient, as regards their effects.

Some hope for the Russian military to be exhausted within say 3 weeks
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1499967950975115269

Obviously, the sanctions are a part of a larger pressure on Russia.

I think the interesting question is how much Western governments are prepared to make people suffer -- due to, let's say (at a guess), energy costs tripling if they stop Russia trading oil and gas. Is Ukraine worth it?

I'm reminded of this reasonable and levelheaded point from amw

- Two weeks ago, the world economy was on the threshold of recession, caused primarily by fiscal policy, along with the continuing effects of the coronavirus pandemic, which various world governments had all collectively decided was "over" and "not worth paying attention to anymore". These causes for recession would normally be guaranteed to turn people against their own governments. Now, since the world's entire attention is focused on the war, once the recession does begin, the Russians will be able to blame America & the EU, and the Americans and Europeans will be able to blame Russia.

As far as I know the only country with an election soon is France, and that may happen before the people feel the hit. Best buy some extra clothes for wearing inside this winter . . .   

[MusicTurner]

I think the interesting question is how much Western governments are prepared to make people suffer -- due to, let's say (at a guess), energy costs tripling if they stop Russia trading oil and gas. Is Ukraine worth it?

I'm reminded of this reasonable and levelheaded point from amw

As far as I know the only country with an election soon is France, and that may happen before the people feel the hit. Best buy some extra clothes for wearing inside this winter . . .   

Polls here say OK for any ~suffering. Demonstrations suggest it too. We'll get more polls successively. Obviously, there has been a good deal of previous racism towards Ukrainians (even compared to Russians), and some will try to enliven it. So far, there's a wave of solidarity. European Right Wingers are fleeing Putin. But of course, if one is living below the poverty line or therabout, one's views might get strained in the longer run. That's why the EU is working on the energy question. It's good that this is March, not December.

[Herman]

A lot of staples will get more expensive, too. For instance, Ukraine supplies 28% of the world's grain for bread flour; so till deep into 2023 we're looking at a big shrink in the supply and bread (and similar products) will get a lot more expensive.

[drogulus]

     Countries are on the verge of recession like always. They are also on the verge of the other things. I can't count the number of verges I'm on.

     I think people are more willing to take a financial hit to thwart aggression against the interconnected world of which they are a part than for parts of the less connected world. Emotion and self interest are involved. I don't see that invalidates any course of action. Perhaps it should be (heh!) explained to me.

[MusicTurner]

A presser here in DK with representatives from six parties across the political spectrum that tend to be in government, called a "National Agreement about the future defense policies". Probably typical of some tendencies elsewhere in Europe.

- Reaching the NATO-signed 2% of the BNP in 2033, defense budget will increase on a yearly basis from now on, a rise of between 0.5 billion and 2.5 billion Euros per year. This might result in cuts in welfare, but the economy will likely be expanding anyway. Current defense budget BNP share is 1.5%. But it must also be said DK has so far been very engaged in various Western military missions abroad.

- Independence from Russian energy as soon as possible, but in collaboration with the EU.

- A national referendum in June, about abolishing existing Danish reservations in relation to EU defense collaboration.

[JBS]

I think the interesting question is how much Western governments are prepared to make people suffer -- due to, let's say (at a guess), energy costs tripling if they stop Russia trading oil and gas. Is Ukraine worth it?

I'm reminded of this reasonable and levelheaded point from amw

As far as I know the only country with an election soon is France, and that may happen before the people feel the hit. Best buy some extra clothes for wearing inside this winter . . .   

Depending on your definition of soon...the US has a round of elections this November, with primaries before then. General expectations were that the GOP would make significant gains.  How this war will affect things is right now pure guess work.

[Mandryka]

U.S. and allies quietly prepare for a Ukrainian government-in-exile and a long insurgency

https://archive.ph/yEkMh#selection-781.0-800.0

[Mandryka]

And here's an opinion piece which is not, in my opinion, totally implausible

https://caitlinjohnstone.substack.com/p/ukraine-is-a-sacrificial-pawn-on?r=334o5&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&fbclid=IwAR2HIVijuI7z_LN_Fh2ZL5I6xvSHCfeI2AuuUXDwsa45cc8fX_wF0ptfVTU

[JBS]

And here's an opinion piece which is not, in my opinion, totally implausible

https://caitlinjohnstone.substack.com/p/ukraine-is-a-sacrificial-pawn-on?r=334o5&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&fbclid=IwAR2HIVijuI7z_LN_Fh2ZL5I6xvSHCfeI2AuuUXDwsa45cc8fX_wF0ptfVTU

It's not plausible once you notice she includes a  Ben Norton tweet and repeats Glenn Greewald talking points.  Her whole premise assumes that Putin is only concerned by the possible expansion of NATO and not his previously expressed desire to revive the Soviet Empire.

[Que]

And here's an opinion piece which is not, in my opinion, totally implausible

https://caitlinjohnstone.substack.com/p/ukraine-is-a-sacrificial-pawn-on?r=334o5&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&fbclid=IwAR2HIVijuI7z_LN_Fh2ZL5I6xvSHCfeI2AuuUXDwsa45cc8fX_wF0ptfVTU

"No meaningful diplomatic effort is being made by Washington to end the violence. Ukrainian lives are being spent like pennies to facilitate the agenda of US planetary domination by whipping up international support for the strangulation of Russia while pouring vast fortunes into the military-industrial complex rather than taking even the tiniest step toward de-escalation, diplomacy and detente.

And it's entirely possible that this was all planned years in advance.

Is it a coincidence that before this started we were bombarded with shrieking anti-Russia narratives for five years, all of which were initiated by secretive and unaccountable intelligence agencies and none of which have ever been substantiated with hard evidence?"


It's a conspiracy theory.

[Dry Brett Kavanaugh]

While some pets flee Ukraine, a lady offers a shelter to those left behind.  They look so cute and defenseless on the pics.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-06-22/h_19987031800d47107badea6d30f4353f

https://www.usatoday.com/picture-gallery/news/world/2022/03/04/dogs-cats-animals-ukraine-russian-invasion/9367867002/

[Todd]

his previously expressed desire to revive the Soviet Empire.

I believe some thinkers now claim he wants to rebuild the pre-Soviet empire.  He denies it.  So either he does or he does not.  Either way, whichever empire might be pursued, The West gave Putin a convenient pretext by foolishly and entirely needlessly expanding NATO to Russia's borders.  And when Putin is gone, whenever that is, Russian strategic concerns remain. 

[JBS]

I believe some thinkers now claim he wants to rebuild the pre-Soviet empire.  He denies it.  So either he does or he does not.  Either way, whichever empire might be pursued, The West gave Putin a convenient pretext by foolishly and entirely needlessly expanding NATO to Russia's borders.  And when Putin is gone, whenever that is, Russian strategic concerns remain.

Only if you assume that Russia and the rest of Europe are intrinsically hostile to each other. Putin does, but that doesn't mean it truly is.

[Todd]

Only if you assume that Russia and the rest of Europe are intrinsically hostile to each other. Putin does, but that doesn't mean it truly is.

It is not all about Putin, which gets lost for some reason.  Russian leaders in the 90s opposed NATO expansion as well, but they could do nothing about it. 

Let's be clear, NATO is an extension of American power.  America and Russia have been enemies since 1917, with a brief respite, if one can call it a respite, during the Great Patriotic War. 

[Karl Henning]

Only if you assume that Russia and the rest of Europe are intrinsically hostile to each other. Putin does, but that doesn't mean it truly is.

And it isn't really like Putin to deny something, if it's true, right?

[drogulus]

     Putin doesn't need a pretext. As for NATO, it's justification is the danger posed by Russian imperialism. Some neighbors of Russia are relatively safe, others are in danger. Putin is making the case, I'm merely pointing out how solid it is.

     If NATO dissolved because of how super obsolete and, um, provocative it is, would Putin be content? Let's put an end to this silliness.

[Que]

Pakistan PM hits back at Western push to condemn Russia

Last week, 22 Islamabad-based diplomats released a joint letter calling on the Pakistani government to join the United Nations' resolution in condemning Russia's attack on Ukraine. Pakistan had abstained from voting on the resolution.

"What do you think of us? Are we your slaves ... that whatever you say, we will do?" Khan said during a political rally

QED Time for Washington to acknowledge that Pakistan, a refuge for terrorists and breeding ground for fundamentalism, is a lost cause... All its corrupt political elite and army have done is suck up billions of US tax money...