Europe at War

[Karl Henning]

Facebook employs third party "fact checkers".  Please don't try to suggest that Big Tech is some disinterested observer and purveyor of any and all opinion. They're partisans and political actors.

Strawman of the Day.

[Florestan]

Those members here who live in Poland, Czechia and Romania. Get ready.

For what?

[MusicTurner]

China stocks had the biggest fall today for 12 years in Hong Kong, etc.

Some say because of the Russia mentionings, ~a Russia alliance being considered likely toxic for economy growth.

[Mirror Image]

For what?

A Russian invasion, what else?

[Florestan]

A Russian invasion, what else?

Czechia has no direct border with Russia even if Russia annex the whole of Ukraine (Poland and Romania have no direct border with Russia either but they will have if Russia annex the whole of Ukraine). That aside, why would Poland and Romania, which have never been part of the USSR, be more in danger than Lithuania*, Latvia and Estonia, which were? And if you're talking about the Tsarist Empire, then substitute Finland for Romania.

* Lithuania has no direct border with Russia either, even if Russia annex the whole of Ukraine.

I think the probability of a NATO country being invaded by Russia is infinitesimal.

[Que]

A Russian invasion, what else?

Approximately half of the Russian army is currently occupied in Ukraine. It would actually be perfect timing to invade Russia....   

[Mandryka]

Czechia has no direct border with Russia even if Russia annex the whole of Ukraine (Poland and Romania have no direct border with Russia either but they will have if Russia annex the whole of Ukraine). That aside, why would Poland and Romania, which have never been part of the USSR, be more in danger than Lithuania*, Latvia and Estonia, which were? And if you're talking about the Tsarist Empire, then substitute Finland for Romania.

* Lithuania has no direct border with Russia either, even if Russia annex the whole of Ukraine.

I think the probability of a NATO country being invaded by Russia is infinitesimal.

They're coming for your Tămâioasă Românească (I'm jealous of your diacriticals.)

[Mirror Image]

Czechia has no direct border with Russia even if Russia annex the whole of Ukraine (Poland and Romania have no direct border with Russia either but they will have if Russia annex the whole of Ukraine). That aside, why would Poland and Romania, which have never been part of the USSR, be more in danger than Lithuania*, Latvia and Estonia, which were? And if you're talking about the Tsarist Empire, then substitute Finland for Romania.

* Lithuania has no direct border with Russia either, even if Russia annex the whole of Ukraine.

I think the probability of a NATO country being invaded by Russia is infinitesimal.

Well, this is true. They'd need Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia first. I don't know why I was thinking that the USSR had control over Romania, Czechia and Poland.

[MusicTurner]

The current war in Ukraine is obviously stretching the Russian resources. I think if they'll try other aggressive measures on the ground right now, those will be of a more limited scale, than say invading Poland or Romania.

Btw, though being somewhat a Russophile as regards their culture, this war probably means that I'll never visit Russia, in spite of having travelled a lot in Europe elsewhere, including Ukraine. Have lost any desire to, cf. their societal state.

[Gurn Blanston]

Well, this is true. They'd need Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia first. I don't know why I was thinking that the USSR had control over Romania, Czechia and Poland.

Because they were Iron Curtain countries. Not part of the Soviet Union itself, but allied with and fully dominated by USSR. Might as well have been part of Russia, for all the autonomy they had. Apparently it was OK, though, to be worse than Russia, you just couldn't be better. Ask a Romanian...

[Florestan]

Because they were Iron Curtain countries. Not part of the Soviet Union itself, but allied with and fully dominated by USSR. Might as well have been part of Russia, for all the autonomy they had. Apparently it was OK, though, to be worse than Russia, you just couldn't be better. Ask a Romanian...

In 1968 Romania was the only country in the Warsaw Treaty Organization which refused to join in the invasion of Czechoslovakia. Ceaușescu pursued an increasingly independent foreign policy which led to rapprochements between him and de Gaulle, Nixon and Ford. Even the Queen of England received him with full honor, including a ride in the royal caleche. Back then he was hailed by the West as the most liberal and Soviet-independent Communist leader, which he was until 1973. That year he made a fateful visit to China and North Korea and came back fascinated by, and imbued with the ideas of, the megalomaniac Asian Communism, first and foremost the cult of personality --- and from there it all went downhill until 1989.

[Gurn Blanston]

In 1968 Romania was the only country in the Warsaw Treaty Organization which refused to join in the invasion of Czechoslovakia. Ceaușescu pursued an increasingly independent foreign policy which led to rapprochements between him and de Gaulle, Nixon and Ford. Even the Queen of England received him with full honor, including a ride in the royal caleche. Back then he was hailed by the West as the most liberal and Soviet-independent Communist leader, which he was until 1973. That year he made a fateful visit to China and North Korea and came back fascinated by, and imbued with the ideas of, the megalomaniac Asian Communism, first and foremost the cult of personality --- and from there it all went downhill until 1989.

Yes, you guys really went through the shits. Not just y'all, Albania, Yugoslavia and Bulgaria weren't a lot better off. When your homegrown dictators are even worse than the f***ing Russians, you have problems!  

[Florestan]

Yes, you guys really went through the shits. Not just y'all, Albania, Yugoslavia and Bulgaria weren't a lot better off. When your homegrown dictators are even worse than the f***ing Russians, you have problems!  

You're actually wrong on Yugoslavia, which was the most prosperous Communist state of them all --- but it was all dependent on one man only who ruled with an iron hand over hugely divergent and conflicting nations. After Tito died, they went downhill too. Btw, Tito's was the only European Communist regime which was not installed by the Red Army and which was legitimated by actual and effective armed resistance against the Nazis. He was a bête noire of the USSR until the very end.

[Spotted Horses]

Well, this is true. They'd need Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia first. I don't know why I was thinking that the USSR had control over Romania, Czechia and Poland.

It is complicated. The USSR was a union of 15 republics, of which Russia was one, along with Ukraine, the Baltic states, Belarus, Georgia, and some others. Chechnya was not a separate republic, it was part of Russia. Then there was the Warsaw pact, which was the Soviet response to NATO, which included other satellite states, such as Poland, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, etc.

The Soviet Union mostly lines up with imperial Russia, although Tsar Nikolaus II was the boss of Finland and Poland, as well. Finland is an odd case, which managed to squirm out of being in the USSR, by being some combination of too stubborn and to meek to be worth invading.

[LKB]

Well, this is true. They'd need Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia first. I don't know why I was thinking that the USSR had control over Romania, Czechia and Poland.

You worry too much, amigo. 

[Mirror Image]

It is complicated. The USSR was a union of 15 republics, of which Russia was one, along with Ukraine, the Baltic states, Belarus, Georgia, and some others. Chechnya was not a separate republic, it was part of Russia. Then there was the Warsaw pact, which was the Soviet response to NATO, which included other satellite states, such as Poland, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, etc.

The Soviet Union mostly lines up with imperial Russia, although Tsar Nikolaus II was the boss of Finland and Poland, as well. Finland is an odd case, which managed to squirm out of being in the USSR, by being some combination of too stubborn and to meek to be worth invading.

Yes, I definitely needed to refresh my Russian history. Thanks for the info.

[Mirror Image]

You worry too much, amigo. 

Indeed I do. This Russian-Ukrainian conflict has my stomach tied in knots. I'm not only worried for the future of Ukraine, but of the Western world in general.

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

Btw, Tito's was the only European Communist regime which was not installed by the Red Army

Czechoslovakia also. Communists came first in the election of 1946, then seized complete power two years later. Soviet troops were absent from CZ between 1945 and 1968. This result wasn't surprising, because CZ was probably the most left-wing country in Europe between the wars. Its Communist Party was the biggest, in both absolute and relative terms (more members than France or Italy, even).

My impression is that Hungary under "goulash communism" (1960s-80s) had both a more liberal regime and a higher standard of living than Yugoslavia, though I may be wrong about this.

[Madiel]

Facebook employs third party "fact checkers".  Please don't try to suggest that Big Tech is some disinterested observer and purveyor of any and all opinion. They're partisans and political actors.  Because such behavior confirms your biases, you don't see it.

https://archive.ph/CRSYG

Ah I see. When you complain about the narrative going in a particular direction, you're upset about facts being checked and the answers being contrary to your own beliefs.

Snopes must upset you enormously.

By the way, you don't know nearly enough about me to start proclaiming you know what my biases are. The fact that I don't immediately buy into a bunch of dark conspiracy merely tells you I have a bias towards skepticism of conspiracies. I've told you nothing about my political leanings (and I'm not American anyway) nor did I make any comment about specific Ukrainian or Russian propaganda relating to the war... although I gather even calling it a "war" might be the wrong thing for one side of the conflict.

Corporations being involved in politics isn't a conspiracy unless you decide to start writing it as one. Although the generally derelict state of American electoral law is a disgrace, that's a whole other topic for a different thread.

[drogulus]

     The most immediate danger is to Moldova, as the Russian advance in the south of Ukraine was intended to link up with the breakaway region of Transnistria.