Europe at War

[Todd]

U.S. Is Sending Dive-Bombing Switchblade Drones to Ukraine

It's not everyday that the US gets to field test weapons systems against Russians.

AVAV shares are up 15% today.  Probably not related to the news in any way.

[drogulus]

We agree Germany is key here. I think Germany has turned over a new leaf, and so will the rest of Europe.  We'll have to...
We can't remain stuck in the previous century if we are to survive as free and democratic nations.

     NATO serves the interests on both sides of the ocean. The same is true of the US/Pacific alliances. The French may harbor residual suspicions about a rising Germany, and who could blame them? More relevant would be the struggle for European primacy in all spheres. So long as the US plays the role it has played for many decades these tensions are subdued. That's suits the US fine.

     Alliances among the leading cooperators should be self-perpetuating to a degree that must be frustrating to those who hate on the idea. My view is that the present war reveals all the strengths and limits of NATO, and on balance it has proved its worth exactly as I would have hoped.

[Karl Henning]

Ah yes, that makes sense to me!

And is how I read him at first, BTW.

[Karl Henning]

This war actually shows with each passing day that Russian Army is weak and ineffective. In a conventional war NATO would mop the floor with them.

Overall that's good news, although obviously not in the boots-on-the-ground sense that since it's all the Russian army can manage to do, they're targeting and terrorizing civilians in apparent hope that this achieves their objective, the swine! And of course, there is the nuclear gorilla in the room.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Fourth Russian general killed

BBC

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky says another Russian general has been killed during fighting.
He didn't name the officer, but an adviser to Ukraine's interior ministry said Maj Gen Oleg Mityaev had been killed by the far-right Azov regiment.
Gen Mityaev was killed near Mariupol, Ukrainian media said.
He is the fourth general reportedly killed, leading some to ask why such senior members of the Russian military are so close to the front line.
Analysts believe that around 20 generals are leading Russian operations in Ukraine, meaning that if all the reported deaths are confirmed, one fifth of Russia's generals have been killed in action.
With such high losses, some experts believe that the generals have not simply been in the wrong place at the wrong time, but that Ukraine is likely to be targeting top-level Russian officers.
"I don't think this is an accident. One is an accident, but this many is targeted", Rita Konaev of Georgetown University told the BBC.

Speaking to the Wall Street Journal, a person within President Zelensky's inner circle said Ukraine had a military intelligence team dedicated to targeting Russia's officer class.

There's more of the story here (article by Ben Tobias):  Speaking to the Wall Street Journal, a person within President Zelensky's inner circle said Ukraine had a military intelligence team dedicated to targeting Russia's officer class.

PD

Sorry, I forgot to add the link.  It might just be a general one though--sorry, no pun intended!  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60767664

One other thing that surprised me, it sounds like that the Russians are not able to manage to create secure means of contacting each other--hence reason that the Ukrainians are able to get intel as to the locations of the officers.  Also from that article:

For Ukraine to target specific Russian officers, it needs to know where they are. Analysts say that Russia has been using open channels of communications which could give clues about where certain targets are located.
"If the Russians are using mobile phones or analogue radios to communicate with senior officers, the Ukrainians have everything on their plate," defence analyst Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting told the BBC.

PD

[Pohjolas Daughter]

U.S. Is Sending Dive-Bombing Switchblade Drones to Ukraine

It's not everyday that the US gets to field test weapons systems against Russians.

AVAV shares are up 15% today.  Probably not related to the news in any way.

I had heard these drones described on CNN, but didn't know that they hadn't been used before--or were you referring to Russians specifically?  Have they been used elsewhere either by the US or other countries?

PD

[BasilValentine]

This war actually shows with each passing day that Russian Army is weak and ineffective. In a conventional war NATO would mop the floor with them.

Ineffective for sure. The most mystifying thing for the generals I've heard interviewed seems to be the failure to provide infantry support to those long armored columns. So we see tanks hit with shoulder fired antitank weapons from close range, followed by crews frying inside or spilling out to die on the road with no one to even pursue the attackers. Here's a recent case:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKCwRVfVV3c

This has been happening for weeks now with no apparent attempt to remedy the situation. That looks like incompetent planning and leadership to me. 

[Mandryka]

And is how I read him at first, BTW.

It's just me -- I always home in on the argument rather than the conclusion!

[relm1]

Ineffective for sure. The most mystifying thing for the generals I've heard interviewed seems to be the failure to provide infantry support to those long armored columns. So we see tanks hit with shoulder fired antitank weapons from close range, followed by crews frying inside or spilling out to die on the road with no one to even pursue the attackers. Here's a recent case:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKCwRVfVV3c

This has been happening for weeks now with no apparent attempt to remedy the situation. That looks like incompetent planning and leadership to me.

It's amazing how vulnerable these tanks are to guerrilla tactics.  This doesn't bode well for Russia in a sustained conflict.

[Todd]

I had heard these drones described on CNN, but didn't know that they hadn't been used before--or were you referring to Russians specifically?  Have they been used elsewhere either by the US or other countries?

They were developed for and used in The War on Terror.  The manufacturer has nifty webpages devoted to the drones.

SWITCHBLADE^® 300

SWITCHBLADE^® 600

The 300 is so cheap you might be able to pick one or two up for yourself.

[Karl Henning]

https://www.youtube.com/v/JhNUKrfxpeg

[drogulus]

     Intel is making a gigantical investment in a chip fab in Germany. Go NATO!!

     I have watched both the RAND game for Taiwan and the Fun version from Grim Reapers.

     The idea is to get some insight into the degree of difficulty China would face from an actual invasion. Cap & co. started their Taiwan series in January and I watched Day 1-4, but after that it looks like YT bowed to pressure from China, so Day 5 hasn't been released.

     By unanimous acclaim Taiwan is a vital interest to the world economy. We understand the move by Intel in that light.

[Todd]

The End of Globalization?

What Russia's War in Ukraine Means for the World Economy

Given Mr Posen's profession, he obviously focuses on finance and economics almost exclusively, and he of course raises many valid and strong arguments.  But two of the sentences are kinda, sorta at odds.

But it now seems likely that the world economy really will split into blocs—one oriented around China and one around the United States, with the European Union mostly but not wholly in the latter camp—each attempting to insulate itself from and then diminish the influence of the other.

Right now, the United States' economic actions may be just, and there may be little risk of countries not invading Ukraine ending up on the wrong side of U.S. policies. But the next time, the United States may be more selfish or capricious.

The ideas underpinning the first sentence appear to be gaining ground in both non-specialist economic and security analyses, with a special focus on technology in the latter domain.  Part of the problem, though, is that the second sentence applies globally.  While there may be unanimity, for now, regarding the use of sanctions and economic warfare, various European powers have openly balked at the same policies in the past, and there is every reason to believe that they will do so in the future.  This chips away at the competing two bloc framework.  Starting with the ridiculously overblown War on Terror, national security has taken on more prominence, and the current war is only heightening those concerns.  It is difficult to see many countries wanting to be as beholden to either China or the US as this and other authors suggest.  Current trends in economic nationalism and national security still look like they will foster a more traditional multi-polar world.  Greater regional integration may be fostered - eg, a truly effective EU, and maybe even a truly effective Mercosur - but if anything, it would seem that there would be multiple competing blocs, not just the West and the East, or the US and China, or whatever other label may apply.  The subcontinent and Africa are rather major outliers in a simplified two bloc analysis, and while addressed to an extent in the article, every indication is that the power centers emerging in Africa and increasing soft and hard power in India will change the balance more than a little.  Globalization may have died its second death though.  Maybe the third time will be the charm.

[BasilValentine]

It's amazing how vulnerable these tanks are to guerrilla tactics.  This doesn't bode well for Russia in a sustained conflict.

It is surprising. But in the video I posted the tanks were vulnerable primarily because there were no infantry troops doing a sweep of the immediate vicinity. The attackers, likely firing old Soviet era RPGs, were hiding in a wood pile about 50 yards off the road(!) I can't imagine it should be that easy.

[LKB]

https://www.youtube.com/v/JhNUKrfxpeg

Thanks Karl. Without a doubt, the greatest performance by Arnold.

[Todd]

Russian invasion spurs European demand for U.S. drones, missiles

American defense contractors are going to make a mint this year.

[LKB]

Russian invasion spurs European demand for U.S. drones, missiles

American defense contractors are going to make a mint this year.

Which is, undoubtedly, the most important objective. 

[drogulus]

It is surprising. But in the video I posted the tanks were vulnerable primarily because there were no infantry troops doing a sweep of the immediate vicinity. The attackers, likely firing old Soviet era RPGs, were hiding in a wood pile about 50 yards off the road(!) I can't imagine it should be that easy.

     The Ukes have better recon on the ground and via drones. They know where the Russians are and the Russian don't know where they are until they are fired on.

Which is, undoubtedly, the most important objective. 

     I'm kicking myself that I didn't go on a defense stock buying spree. My portfolio is indistinguishable from that of a raving peacemonger. It's embarrassing.

[LKB]

     The Ukes have better recon on the ground and via drones. They know where the Russians are and the Russian don't know where they are until they are fired on.

     I'm kicking myself that I didn't go on a defense stock buying spree. My portfolio is indistinguishable from that of a raving peacemonger. It's embarrassing.

Money is not a measure one should strive to be remembered by.

[drogulus]

Money is not a measure one should strive to be remembered by.

     I will be remembered for my sense of humor.