Europe at War

[Herman]

Of course he doesn't care. But close to a third of his operational forces comitted to Ukraine being out of operation will have a significant impact. And the fact that wounded soldiers are returning, and that a significant numer are MIA can no be hid.

Well, it's fifteen years in the slammer if you publicly say the 'military operation' was no good. So most people will just shut up.

The war of occupation is not going well, indeed. So Pute's is just going to bomb the cities to rubble instead.

[Que]

So this was making the rounds today:

https://www.newsweek.com/russias-elite-want-putin-out-successor-mind-ukraine-intel-chief-1689830

I'm dubious, but even if it's bunk the Ukrainians have nothing to lose by exploiting the obvious premise.

If this comes from a Ukrainian govt source, as the article claims, why would they mention the name of the potential successor? To make sure that Putin eliminates him, is my guess... Though there might be plans to get rid of Putin, this seems to be to designed to feed Putin's paranoia and disrupt the Kremlin.

[Madiel]

We've had the truth about neo-Nazis in Ukraine.

For balance, I offer you the truth about neo-Nazis in Russia.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-22/putins-fascists-russias-home-grown-neo-nazis/100927582

[Madiel]

That's more of a caricature though.

You're demonstrating your expertise in the area at times.

[Scion7]

Samara has the most number of ethnic-Russian refugees from Ukraine - some 7,000 now - and there is friction with the locals developing.  Foodstuffs are becoming scarce to the point of shoving matches in the lines.
I've advised my friends there to leave - head east - although Rostov is much more likely to be a target, these new missiles being sent to Ukraine from the West do have the range to hit Volga targets.  Considering the casual disregard for committing war crimes by Putin, I don't think Ukraine is going to be that worried what they target in Russia, as long as they inflict some payback.

[MusicTurner]

Rostov has been a military base for the Donbass invasion logistics sine 2014, also the MH17 Buk missile. But to attack Russia with missiles would be an escalation with very far-reaching consequences, including possibly WMD against Ukraine (or maybe a hope for a later NATO interference).

[Todd]

If this comes from a Ukrainian govt source, as the article claims

Information warfare.

[Todd]

EU may discuss more borrowing option in a few weeks, Gentiloni says

Germany, the Netherlands, Austria and other countries oppose such new borrowing now, arguing that the economic impact of the war in Ukraine is still unclear and that out of the 800 billion recovery fund only 74 billion euros has been disbursed so far.

Europe's Hamiltonian moment could be arriving a few centuries later than for the Yanks, but it sure seems that Germany and the Netherlands seem quite comfortable with the status quo, wanting to limit centralized borrowing and wanting to buy oil from Russia. 

[drogulus]

     Why Can't the West Admit That Ukraine Is Winning?

Most commentators have taken too narrow a view of this conflict, presenting it as solely between Russia and Ukraine. Like most wars, though, it is being waged by two coalitions, fought primarily though not exclusively by Russian and Ukrainian nationals. The Russians have some Chechen auxiliaries who have yet to demonstrate much effectiveness (and who lost their commander early on), may get some Syrians (who will be even less able to integrate with Russian units), and find a half-hearted ally in Belarus, whose citizens have begun sabotaging its rail lines and whose army may well mutiny if asked to invade Ukraine.

The Ukrainians have their auxiliaries, too, some 15,000 or so foreign volunteers, some probably worthless or dangerous to their allies, but others valuable—snipers, combat medics, and other specialists who have fought in Western armies. More important, they have behind them the military industries of countries including the United States, Sweden, Turkey, and the Czech Republic. Flowing into Ukraine every day are thousands of advanced weapons: the best anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles in the world, plus drones, sniper rifles, and all the kit of war. Moreover, it should be noted that the United States has had exquisite intelligence not only about Russia's dispositions but about its intentions and actual operations. The members of the U.S. intelligence community would be fools not to share this information, including real-time intelligence, with the Ukrainians. Judging by the adroitness of Ukrainian air defenses and deployments, one may suppose that they are not, in fact, fools.

     

[Herman]

     Why Can't the West Admit That Ukraine Is Winning?

it's not over till it's over.

[Scion7]

... to attack Russia with missiles would be an escalation with very far-reaching consequences, including possibly WMD against Ukraine (or maybe a hope for a later NATO interference).

Ukraine has already launched missile attacks against Russia - some over 2 weeks ago - Rostov being the major target.

[MusicTurner]

Ukraine has already launched missile attacks against Russia - some over 2 weeks ago - Rostov being the major target.

Correct, I forgot. Seems to be a limited attack though, against an air base (Millerovo), not a city, and apparently one missile.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Ukraine has already launched missile attacks against Russia - some over 2 weeks ago - Rostov being the major target.

I didn't know that!  Do we know what they were aiming for?  Are there a lot of Russian troops or supplies there?  And were there any civilian casualties?

PD

[Scion7]

Correct, I forgot. Seems to be a limited attack though, against an air base (Millerovo), not a city, and apparently one missile.

One missile??  Nope.  And with any attack using old Soviet era weapons, some went astray and hit the city/civilian areas.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Correct, I forgot. Seems to be a limited attack though, against an air base (Millerovo), not a city, and apparently one missile.

Ah, thanks for the info.  Was there much damage done to the base?

PD

[drogulus]

it's not over till it's over.

     Yes, "winning" is not the same as "won". The best we can say is "winning" precedes "won" more often than it does "lost". If Putin is unwilling or unable to substantially increase pressure on the Ukrainian defense the Russian effort is doomed, because time and a war of attrition heavily favors a defender being continually resupplied with highly effective weaponry from highly motivated allies.

     

[Spotted Horses]

Both sides are loosing.

[MusicTurner]

Ah, thanks for the info.  Was there much damage done to the base?

PD

Maybe a couple of airplanes destroyed. Wiki already has an article ... the whole thing is not very clear ... some people were wounded, though.

[Mandryka]

Both sides are loosing.

I'm not so sure Russia's losing! It's not their best case scenario obviously, but they're dealing with the resistance the Ukrainians are offering - no doubt they're incurring casualties, losing equipment, but I don't think any of us can say how great their losses are, and anyway, casualties are to be expected in war.

[MusicTurner]

One missile??  Nope.  And with any attack using old Soviet era weapons, some went astray and hit the city/civilian areas.

Only checked the Wiki today. There were more sources  back then. The Russians are interested in showing terror against civilians.

You seem to be right about the possibility of more missiles. Some think of other weapons.

It is 20 km from the border.