Europe at War

[drogulus]

     There is no next generation of Putinists in Russia. He's surrounded himself with the old KGB guard.

     I'm not predicting an instant transition. Russia doesn't have to become modern all at once. Consider that the present wave of repression is greater than the Gorbachev Soviet era as well as the '90s in Russia. It's also worse than the pre-2014 Putin era.

     Let's be historical, OK? Losing a major war can kill a tyranny in the way it has done before, in Russia.

     To reengage with the world some form of moderation will be needed. It happened in 1905-6, in 1917-18, 1989-91 and it seems likely to happen again. Liberal Russia will have influence, if not authority.

[MusicTurner]

BTW, some are pointing to the 9th of May, with the traditional parades celebrating the defeat of Nazi Germany, as a tempting date for Putin, for officially ending the war.

[Florestan]

Losing a major war can kill a tyranny in the way it has done before, in Russia. 

Well, yes, losing a major war killed a tyranny in Russia --- only to be replaced with an even greater, crueler, gruesomer tyranny.

If that's the historical precedent you rely upon, then God help!

[drogulus]

Well, yes, losing a major war killed a tyranny in Russia --- only to be replaced with an even greater, crueler, gruesomer tyranny.

If that's the historical precedent you rely upon, then God help!

     It's possible. I'm observing and making connections on valid evidence. Liberal movements have been aborted one way or another, however young Russians are connected to the wider world far beyond the degree they were in the past. Who will govern when the current crowd dies off? Who are the proto-tyrants? Russia will need to adapt and I judge they won't be satisfied with permanent pariah status.  With reduced oil and gas income Russia will need to offer inducements to Western companies to build, operate and repair energy infrastructure they can't manage on their own. Some combination not yet in sight of authoritarian and democratic forces will contest for leadership.

[Florestan]

    Who will govern when the current crowd dies off?

Hopefully a more moderate one.

With reduced oil and gas income Russia will need

That's a joke, right?

[drogulus]

That's a joke, right?

     It depends on how much lost Russian output can be replaced as prices rise and producers are motivated to ramp up. If Russia is forced to shut down the pipelines it will be a huge task to start back up.

[drogulus]

     More on the Russian oil nightmare:

     https://www.youtube.com/v/Bm7cKB3Wczs

     https://www.youtube.com/v/5Gcl1dO2_0s&t

     I don't know if this guy is right. He does seem to be a disasterphile. At least he's thinking about the right things.

     Oh, he also thinks China is fucked, therefore he's a genius.

[Que]

I'm following the negotiations, that seem more genuine, now Turkey acts as mediator and the Putin regime has switched the narrative in Russia to "liberating" Donetsk and Luhansk  as the primary objective of the war.

The analogies with the Finnish Winter War are striking. It seems that at least Zelensky is steering towards a similar way out: neutrality, guaranteed territorial integrity and the option of future EU membership.

To save face Putin needs territorial concessions as well. To me it seems rather inevitable that Ukraine needs to sign off on a Russian annexation of the Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. Key will be to avoid a permanent Russian hold on the entire southern coast. The west could redesignate frozen assests of the Russian central bank as war reparations, in return for a normalisation of economic relations and lifting of the sanctions.

Unsatisfactory? Absolutely.
But this slaughter has to stop and like in the Finnish case, a free, peaceful and prosperous future is probably worth the sacrifice.
And even though it might seem Russia would be rewarded, I think hat it will be paying a high price for this adventure in terms of long term damage to its economy, its credibility on the international stage and its military reputation.

[Madiel]

I'm following the negotiations, that seem more genuine, now Turkey acts as mediator and the Putin regime has switched the narrative in Russia to "liberating" Donetsk and Luhansk  as the primary objective of the war.

The analogies with the Finnish Winter War are striking. It seems that at least Zelensky is steering towards a similar way out: neutrality, guaranteed territorial integrity and the option of future EU membership.

To save face Putin needs territorial concessions as well. To me it seems rather inevitable that Ukraine needs to sign off on a Russian annexation of the Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. Key will be to avoid a permanent Russian hold on the entire southern coast. The west could redesignate frozen assests of the Russian central bank as war reparations, in return for a normalisation of economic relations and lifting of the sanctions.

Unsatisfactory? Absolutely.
But this slaughter has to stop and like in the Finnish case, a free, peaceful and prosperous future is probably worth the sacrifice.
And even though it might seem Russia would be rewarded, I think hat it will be paying a high price for this adventure in terms of long term damage to its economy, its credibility on the international stage and its military reputation.

Giving Crimea to Russia is relatively justifiable given that, within the Soviet Union, it was part of Russia until 1954, and the great majority of the population identifies as ethnically Russian. The basis for taking Donbass is heck of a lot more problematic, as it has much more of a Ukrainian history, a lot more people identifying as ethnically Ukrainian, and considerable chunks of territory that the breakaway republics have not actually had control of since 2014 despite claiming them.

[The new erato]

And people living there mainly wanting to stay Ukrainian:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Donbas_status_referendums

[drogulus]

I'm following the negotiations, that seem more genuine, now Turkey acts as mediator and the Putin regime has switched the narrative in Russia to "liberating" Donetsk and Luhansk  as the primary objective of the war.

The analogies with the Finnish Winter War are striking. It seems that at least Zelensky is steering towards a similar way out: neutrality, guaranteed territorial integrity and the option of future EU membership.

To save face Putin needs territorial concessions as well. To me it seems rather inevitable that Ukraine needs to sign off on a Russian annexation of the Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. Key will be to avoid a permanent Russian hold on the entire southern coast. The west could redesignate frozen assests of the Russian central bank as war reparations, in return for a normalisation of economic relations and lifting of the sanctions.

Unsatisfactory? Absolutely.
But this slaughter has to stop and like in the Finnish case, a free, peaceful and prosperous future is probably worth the sacrifice.
And even though it might seem Russia would be rewarded, I think hat it will be paying a high price for this adventure in terms of long term damage to its economy, its credibility on the international stage and its military reputation.

     I think Russia is stalling for the purpose of reinforcing and resupplying their forces. Ukraine will need to be bolstered for phase II.

     Of course there's an outline of a settlement here. Putin would be crazy to hold out for more.

     If Russia was serious there would be a ceasefire. They wouldn't have to propose it, they could just stop firing and announce it. That would be a real first step and the negotiations might become authentic.

[MusicTurner]

And people living there mainly wanting to stay Ukrainian:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Donbas_status_referendums

If the Ukrainian suggestion of a pause of 15 years before a new referendum, concerning Crimea and the Donbass republics, the Ukrainian chances for keeping those regions have probably improved a lot, since Russia seems to be going down generally. But I find it most likely that a referendum among the locals there right now would vote for Russia. They've been the subject of Russian propaganda for 8 years, there's been shelling from the Ukrainian side too, and a large influx of Russians to Crimea (some say 500,000); so a lot of the Ukraine-friendly people left. The Crimean Tatars and the Ukrainians there have experienced persecution during the Russian annexation, and it's a subject that hasn't been dealt with enough internationally. But the fleeing also works for a vote for Russia. Of course, there's the possibility that the banditry regime of the 'republics' have made them detest everything Russian-influenced, but I personally doubt it.

[amw]

Despite Russia's claim that it's withdrawing from the northern axis to focus on Donbas, civilians across the whole line from Kiev to Kharkiv report continued or intensified shelling, and no one has spotted any troop withdrawals. US intelligence seems to concur. That's also pretty much what I expected to happen; any claim made by a world leader involved in a war seems to reliably be the exact opposite of truthful. If either Russia or Ukraine said the sky was blue I would assume it was green until verified otherwise.

That said, the fact that Russia is now speaking in terms of troop withdrawals and "mission(s) accomplished"  is an encouraging sign for peace talks, since that indicates it's set up for itself an exit strategy that nevertheless allows it to claim some kind of propaganda victory. I suppose from here on it's all about framing.

I don't think Donbas becomes part of Russia incidentally; the final settlement could be independence for the separatist-held areas (and rule by a Russian proxy regime) or it could be some sort of devolution, and the more likely outcome is the indefinite continuation of the status quo ante. According to people I've talked to from the area (ok, not a large sample size), the Russian government is not particularly trusted at the moment. General sentiment is feeling abandoned by Russia for the last eight years, apparently. Obviously if separatist leadership wanted to become part of the Russian state they would fix the referenda in their favour (which is what everyone expects them to do anyway). Notable that neither side has released a preferred solution for the area with both Russia and Ukraine saying it's a final status issue that must be determined through negotiations. Given the abject failure of the Minsk agreement I don't see that working out well, but we'll see I guess.

[Todd]

And even though it might seem Russia would be rewarded, I think hat it will be paying a high price for this adventure in terms of long term damage to its economy, its credibility on the international stage and its military reputation.

Another outcome is that the full extent of economic warfare the US will engage in has been exposed, and certain actions, such as freezing of central bank assets, will accelerate a move away from global dollar dominance.  Not everyone applauds US economic warfare.

And perceived Russian gains, which are in fact gains, serve as a lesson for other powers that may pursue military adventures, meaning, of course, China, but others on a smaller scale as well. 

[MusicTurner]

Despite Russia's claim that it's withdrawing from the northern axis to focus on Donbas, civilians across the whole line from Kiev to Kharkiv report continued or intensified shelling, and no one has spotted any troop withdrawals. US intelligence seems to concur. That's also pretty much what I expected to happen; any claim made by a world leader involved in a war seems to reliably be the exact opposite of truthful. If either Russia or Ukraine said the sky was blue I would assume it was green until verified otherwise.

(....)

A more positive interpretation here, including by an on-site reporter, is that it's the Ukrainians trying to force the Russians back, especially around Kyiv - hence the intensified firing.

[LKB]

From Reuters, also picked up by CNN:

" Russian President Vladimir Putin was misled by his advisers about how poorly the war in Ukraine is going and how damaging Westerns sanctions have been to Russia's economy, a U.S. official said on Wednesday, citing declassified intelligence. "

Vlad the Mad is probably really mad...

[Karl Henning]

From Reuters, also picked up by CNN:

" Russian President Vladimir Putin was misled by his advisers about how poorly the war in Ukraine is going and how damaging Westerns sanctions have been to Russia's economy, a U.S. official said on Wednesday, citing declassified intelligence. "

Vlad the Mad is probably really mad...

Consider that the pantywaists with whom the comic figure Trump surrounded himself could not bring themselves to tell him anything he didn't want to hear. But with Putin we have an actually murderous bastard.

[71 dB]

Ukraine's embassy in Finland happens to be very near (200 m / 600 ft or so) my flat. I can even see part of it from my balcony.
I walked past the embassy today. People had left all kind of stuff of sympathy on the fence.
Yellow and blue ribbons, drawings, flowers, etc.  0:)

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Ukraine's embassy in Finland happens to be very near (200 m / 600 ft or so) my flat. I can even see part of it from my balcony.
I walked past the embassy today. People had left all kind of stuff of sympathy on the fence.
Yellow and blue ribbons, drawings, flowers, etc.  0:)

That's very special to hear....lovely people.

PD

[71 dB]

That's very special to hear....lovely people.

PD

To be fair, I'm sure the same has happened in many countries with the local embassies of Ukraine.  0:)