Europe at War

[Que]

For those interested in assessments of the military developments, here is a source the Financial Times uses*:

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30


* Mind that this Critical Threats Project is run by the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, a neoconservative thinktank.

[Que]

The Russian rouble has recovered to its pre-war value despite western sanctions on the country's exports and financial systems.

The currency was trading at 75.5 to one US dollar on Thursday morning, compared with almost 140 to the dollar at the beginning of March when it crashed with the onest of sanctions. That is actually better than it was on 22 February, two days before the invasion, when it was at 80 per dollar.

Russia has bolstered the currency by raising interest rates to 20% – therefore encouraging investment in the rouble – and imposing capital controls which mean that people cannot swap roubles for other currencies.

The Kremlin's threat to make European gas importers like Germany pay for their supplies in roubles – thus boosting the currency's value – has also helped. More help has come from China and India, which have increased the amount of Russian oil they are buying thanks to generous discounts from Moscow.

[BasilValentine]

From Reuters, also picked up by CNN:

" Russian President Vladimir Putin was misled by his advisers about how poorly the war in Ukraine is going and how damaging Westerns sanctions have been to Russia's economy, a U.S. official said on Wednesday, citing declassified intelligence. "

Vlad the Mad is probably really mad...

Yes. However, this interaction between Putin and Sergei Naryshkin, head of the FSB, at a meeting of the Russian Security Council, suggests that the word misled might be misleading. Putin is pretty much demanding to be misled, requiring that his biases be confirmed and intimidating a man who seems disinclined to confirm them. This Trump level childishness is frightening in someone I long assumed was grounded in reality.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9A-u8EoWcI

[Spotted Horses]

Putin may have expected Ukraine to capitulate within days. That hasn't happened and the Russian military had gotten bogged down and taken heavy losses. (They've already suffered more deaths that the U.S. did in 20 years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan.) That doesn't mean they won't prevail, destroying and annexing Ukraine (the parts they want). Remember, The Soviet Union "won" the "Great Patriotic War." Then did this at the cost of at least 9 million military deaths. (The United States suffered about 400,000 military deaths during WWII). Putin doesn't care how many Russians die, as long as he isn't one of them (due to unfortunate presence of radioactive Polonium in his tea, or Novichok finding its way to his underpants).

[LKB]

Putin has ordered another 135,000 drafted into the Russian military.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/3012130-putin-ordering-draft-of-135000-amid-difficulties-in-ukraine-war/

[71 dB]

(Thank you moderators for lifting the restrictions!    0:) )

Putin has ordered another 135,000 drafted into the Russian military.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/3012130-putin-ordering-draft-of-135000-amid-difficulties-in-ukraine-war/

"Just a small military operation that will take 2-3 days... " 

[Spotted Horses]

Putin has ordered another 135,000 drafted into the Russian military.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/3012130-putin-ordering-draft-of-135000-amid-difficulties-in-ukraine-war/

According to what I have read, that is only moderately above the usual amount, which was 126,000 last year. Conscripts serve one year and a new batch is needed every year to replace those that are leaving.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/explainer-russian-conscription-reserve-and-mobilization

[Gurn Blanston]

Putin has ordered another 135,000 drafted into the Russian military.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/3012130-putin-ordering-draft-of-135000-amid-difficulties-in-ukraine-war/

I'm not sure of of the relevance of this; Russia has had a Springtime call-up of draftees every year for the past 3 years,  the number each year?  135,000. Also,  if they are calling them up for this reason,  it will still be 3-4 months before they can even consider going to Ukraine 🇺🇦. 

🤠😎

[amw]

A more positive interpretation here, including by an on-site reporter, is that it's the Ukrainians trying to force the Russians back, especially around Kyiv - hence the intensified firing.

This is potentially more accurate: civilians around Sumy, Bucha and a few other areas reported Russian columns withdrawing over the last 24 hours or so, well in advance of the arrival of Ukrainian troops. It seems likely that not much actual fighting took place, and Russia was using artillery/missile fire as a screen to withdraw its forces and prevent material losses. (some Ukr troops are themselves reporting that areas they're retaking are abandoned, which would normally be against opsec but I guess military censors are allowing their social media posts through on the grounds of it being good for morale.)

So that is good news and rather unexpected, at least in the sense that Russia is actually removing troops from the northern axis rather than leaving them to die. Also possibly a sign that the talks in Istanbul may be progressing much better than past attempts.

[Gurn Blanston]

Well,  I guess the war has just been a 9-day-wonder as we used to say. Sort of an intellectual exercise for the elite...  I saw this morning that overnight large fuel dump INSIDE Russia was destroyed by some sort of aerial attack.  The Ukrainians are neither owning nor denying any involvement.  If they did it,  how? If they didn't,  who?

This reminds me of last week when a Russian warship was sunk in the Black Sea.  If the Ukrainians did it,  how? Etc etc etc... 😉

🤠😎

[BasilValentine]

Well,  I guess the war has just been a 9-day-wonder as we used to say. Sort of an intellectual exercise for the elite...  I saw this morning that overnight large fuel dump INSIDE Russia was destroyed by some sort of aerial attack.  The Ukrainians are neither owning nor denying any involvement.  If they did it,  how? If they didn't,  who?

This reminds me of last week when a Russian warship was sunk in the Black Sea.  If the Ukrainians did it,  how? Etc etc etc... 😉

🤠😎

Allegedly, two helicopters. And the sea lanes are said to have been mined.

[Gurn Blanston]

Allegedly, two helicopters. And the sea lanes are said to have been mined.

Since the Russians are claiming to `own the skies `, one wonders how 2 previously unused helicopters were able to cross into Russia itself and despatch a major fuel supply depot.  Maybe we are actually seeing another false flag operation to be used to justify further atrocities. 

And who mined sea lanes? Surely not Ukraine.  I am totally unaware of their navy.   

🤠😎

[drogulus]

     Russia wants what Ukraine will never concede, a land bridge from Donetsk to Crimea and the Black Sea. That's the point of Mariupol.

     

     The map is dated but good enough.

Since the Russians are claiming to `own the skies `, one wonders how 2 previously unused helicopters were able to cross into Russia itself and despatch a major fuel supply depot.  Maybe we are actually seeing another false flag operation to be used to justify further atrocities. 

And who mined sea lanes? Surely not Ukraine.  I am totally unaware of their navy.   

🤠😎

     Considering the Russian supply problem it seems unlikely they would do this.

     I'm totally unaware of how the Ukes mined the coast before the war.

[Spotted Horses]

Since the Russians are claiming to `own the skies `, one wonders how 2 previously unused helicopters were able to cross into Russia itself and despatch a major fuel supply depot.  Maybe we are actually seeing another false flag operation to be used to justify further atrocities. 

And who mined sea lanes? Surely not Ukraine.  I am totally unaware of their navy.   

🤠😎

From my extensive research (google) the Ukraine's Navy was mostly lost when their Naval base on the Crimea was captured. They have since acquired a "mosquito navy" consisting of former U.S. coast guard patrol boats, and similar boats around 25 meters in length.

Mines nowadays are mostly laid by Helicopters or other aircraft.

And apparently Russia does not entirely "own the skies."

[Gurn Blanston]

      Considering the Russian supply problem it seems unlikely they would do this.

I agree with the logic of that, it was my own first reaction. However, logic don't always enter in to their thinking pattern, and if you want to convince the world that it was the Ukes, you have to have a high value target to dangle. Anyway, right now they have an abundance of oil, although I don't know the state of its refinement. 

[drogulus]

     The high value target is the mind of the Russian decision maker. Let's say Putin really doesn't know how bad the war is going. I'm sure he knows it's bad, that much must be the case. From the Uke perspective, though, they must provide evidence that gets to Putin no matter what the yes men around him say.

     Ukraine has won the first phase of the war, and the Phase II war of attrition actually favors Ukraine even more, because Ukraine is effectively being supplied from territory Russia can't touch. Plus, Ukraine can make better use of all the captured tanks than the Russians could.

     Convincing Putin that time favors Ukraine is a big deal. It helps that it's true.

[JBS]

Well,  I guess the war has just been a 9-day-wonder as we used to say. Sort of an intellectual exercise for the elite...  I saw this morning that overnight large fuel dump INSIDE Russia was destroyed by some sort of aerial attack.  The Ukrainians are neither owning nor denying any involvement.  If they did it,  how? If they didn't,  who?

This reminds me of last week when a Russian warship was sunk in the Black Sea.  If the Ukrainians did it,  how? Etc etc etc... 😉

🤠😎

I'm aware of two Russian warships that were neutralized by the Ukrainians, both by land based artillery: an equipment transport ship that was docked and had been offloading for several days, and a vessel (destroyer, I think) sailing close enough to the coastline to be hit by a surface to air missile that was repurposed into a surface to ship missile.

[Karl Henning]

I'm aware of two Russian warships that were neutralized by the Ukrainians, both by land based artillery: an equipment transport ship that was docked and had been offloading for several days, and a vessel (destroyer, I think) sailing close enough to the coastline to be hit by a surface to air missile that was repurposed into a surface to ship missile.

The ship formerly occupied air

[BasilValentine]

Since the Russians are claiming to `own the skies `, one wonders how 2 previously unused helicopters were able to cross into Russia itself and despatch a major fuel supply depot.  Maybe we are actually seeing another false flag operation to be used to justify further atrocities. 

And who mined sea lanes? Surely not Ukraine.  I am totally unaware of their navy.   

🤠😎

Flying at treetop level in the same kind of helicopters the Russians fly and air to ground missiles. Given that Russia is losing generals because they're using Ukranian G3 phone networks and the general disarray and incompetence of every aspect of Russian military organization, is it really surprising they failed anticipate and counter this attack?

[Karl Henning]

Flying at treetop level in the same kind of helicopters the Russians fly and air to ground missiles. Given that Russia is losing generals because they're using Ukranian G3 phone networks and the general disarray and incompetence of every aspect of Russian military organization, is it really surprising they failed anticipate and counter this attack?

It's the last thing anyone anticipated, but the world together with the Ukraine are thanking our lucky stars that today's Red Army are The Gang That Can't Shoot Straight.