Europe at War

[Florestan]

All manner of behavior can be rationalized and explained away.  War offers the broadest, most reliable context for this.  Maybe Hobbes was on to something, after all.

Todd going the moralist. Indeed this effing war turned the world upside down. 

[Todd]

Todd going the moralist.

No, just observing that there is nothing new under the sun. 

[Madiel]

Yes, you found this presumably

https://mobile.twitter.com/BcatMonitoring/status/1172211216451809283

No, because presumably I was looking for something more than a tweet from 3 years ago.

[MusicTurner]

One of the moderate experts here, Claus Mathiesen, no longer excluding oncoming, open war participation by NATO, because of the Russian mobilization with the continued attacks on Ukraine and especially the civilians there. Maybe a Russian, limited attack on Poland because of the arms deliveries. China would stay out. Not nice prospects if so.

[Florestan]

One of the moderate experts here, Claus Mathiesen, no longer excluding oncoming, open war participation by NATO, because of the Russian mobilization with the continued attacks on Ukraine and especially the civilians there. Maybe a Russian, limited attack on Poland because of the arms deliveries. China would stay out. Not nice prospects if so.

A Russian attack on Poland, either limited or all-out, means WW3.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Yes.
Why their tank turrets are often blown off: there's a circle of grenades under them; not good from a safety perspective. The crews just disappear.
https://twitter.com/Peter__Leonard/status/1512164631749578771

A former Putin advisor until 2011, Pavlovsky, hopes for the 9th of May to be the date of a halt to the war, but he is also pessimistic.
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-invasion-putin-trap-pavlovsky/31787269.html

Zhirinovsky In Memoriam (the story goes, because he choose to take eight covid vaccines):
https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1511730620568846343

Thank you for those links...quite interesting...particularly the one about the tanks [I didn't have time earlier to read all of the one about Zhirinovsky.  Like you, I've been hearing about the 9th of May for some time now.].

PD

[LKB]

A Russian attack on Poland, either limited or all-out, means WW3.

And given the evident ineptitude of Russia's conventional forces, attacking a NATO member would seem to be extremely inadvisable. Even aside from Article 5, Poland might well be able to handle the Russians on her own.

A deniable covert strike against Ukraine's supply chain would make more sense, but as the West have demonstrated some impressive Intel regarding Russian intentions, that capability may not be there.

I'm guessing that Putin will simply continue rubbling Ukrainian cities and slaughtering civilians until either a) Zelenskyy agrees to terms acceptable to him, or b) an unforseen event makes continuing the war impossible.

[Que]

Honour where honour is due - the UK has been generous:

Last night No 10 said Britain would send 120 armoured vehicles and new anti-ship missile systems to Ukraine. The missiles can do serious damage to Russian warships and could be used to tackle the Russian navy siege of Black Sea ports. The UK pledged £100m in military assistance last week, including another 800 anti-tank missiles, more anti-aircraft weapons, "suicide drones", which hover over the battlefield before attacking a target, and helmets, body armour and night-vision goggles.

[Que]

One of the moderate experts here, Claus Mathiesen, no longer excluding oncoming, open war participation by NATO, because of the Russian mobilization with the continued attacks on Ukraine and especially the civilians there. Maybe a Russian, limited attack on Poland because of the arms deliveries. China would stay out. Not nice prospects if so.

According to some reports, Russia is quickly depleting its strategic military reserves in this war and cannot afford to fight on another front.

Instead of another Russian attack, this situation would IMO rather open up the possibility of others taking the opportunity to make their move now Russia's hands are tied. Finland joining NATO is already on the table. But what about coup or a popular uprising in Belarus? Georgia taking up arms against Russian occupying forces?

[MusicTurner]

Thank you for those links...quite interesting...particularly the one about the tanks [I didn't have time earlier to read all of the one about Zhirinovsky.  Like you, I've been hearing about the 9th of May for some time now.].

PD

You're welcome.

I guess there's a limit on how much of all this war info one can cope with ... and with all sorts of opinions on the future. One can hope, that after the 9th of May, the violence will recede somewhat. But the insistent cynicism of the Russian side has astonished a lot of people; I too was in doubt, when I posted the very early Ukrainian prognosis for oncoming, systematic violence against civilians etc.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

You're welcome.

I guess there's a limit on how much of all this war info one can cope with ... and with all sorts of opinions on the future. One can hope, that after the 9th of May, the violence will recede somewhat. But the insistent cynicism of the Russian side has astonished a lot of people; I too was in doubt, when I posted the very early Ukrainian prognosis for oncoming, systematic violence against civilians etc.

Yes, I'm trying to not check in as much (as in listening to and reading the news) as it's quite draining plus there are certain things that I need to get done in life.  That said, I did do some reading on Radio Free Europe and found this article to be quite interesting and illuminating.  https://www.rferl.org/a/kyrgyzstan-russia-invasion-ukraine-fighting/31795637.html  There's also another one on there about people getting turned in to the FSB by various folks:  some thinking the FSB themselves, parents of students, etc.  There was also something on CNN recently about Russian military conversations being intercepted with a commander(?) ordering a soldier to kill civilians after the soldier told him what he had seen.  https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/04/08/audio-intercepts-russian-soldiers-chance-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/russia-ukraine-military-conflict/

Surprised to see Boris J. walking with Zelensky in Kviv.  I guess his advisors thought that he was far enough away from the current fighting that he could safely go to Ukraine.

PD

[Karl Henning]

Yeesh: Russian students are turning in teachers who don't back the war

[T. D.]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-10/general-who-ran-syria-operation-to-lead-russia-troops-in-ukraine

Russia has appointed a new commander for its operations in Ukraine as it refocuses its war effort in the east, having failed to secure territory around the capital, Kyiv.

General Alexander Dvornikov, commander of the Southern Military District, will now lead Russian troops on the ground, according to Western security officials and diplomats with knowledge of the change. The Kremlin has not announced the appointment.

Dvornikov, 60, has held several senior positions in the Russian military, including army commander of the Far Eastern Military District. He notably oversaw Moscow's forces in Syria in 2015 and 2016, where they fought alongside Syrian government troops in a conflict where President Bashar al-Assad was accused of using chemical weapons against his own people.
...
Dvornikov had been responsible so far for operations in the south and east of Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War*. The lack of a single overall commander had "clearly hindered the cooperation of Russian forces," it said in a report dated April 9.

*I had to google the name of this institution, which (sloppy journalism IMO) was not properly identified in the article. It's a US-based think tank.

[Florestan]

General Alexander Dvornikov, commander of the Southern Military District, will now lead Russian troops on the ground,

How many days / weeks until Ukrainian snippers shoot him dead, I wonder. 

[Florestan]

Yeesh: Russian students are turning in teachers who don't back the war

https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2022/04/10/russian-students-are-turning-in-teachers-who-dont-back-the-war/

I'm not surprised. If you're going to bring back the USSR in all its former glory, start with one of the hardest pieces in its backbone: the informers network. Which of course goes hand in hand with, and is dependent on, indoctrinating children from their tenderest age.

[vandermolen]

Yeesh: Russian students are turning in teachers who don't back the war

Next there will be new offences for 'thought crime' and 'face crime'. Orwell's work is just as relevant now as it ever has been.

[The new erato]

How many days / weeks until Ukrainian snippers shoot him dead, I wonder. 

I do think this means that the troops will be on the ground. He will be wherever a long distance drone or a switchblade cannot reach him.

[Florestan]

I do think this means that the troops will be on the ground. He will be wherever a long distance drone or a switchblade cannot reach him.

Ah I see. Too bad then, I was hoping for the bastard to bite the dust as soon as possible.

[The new erato]

Ah I see. Too bad then, I was hoping for the bastard to bite the dust as soon as possible.

QFT. We'll see, my comment was partly a joke, the Russians don't seem to be safe anywhere, and modern weapons are flowing in.

[71 dB]

I am completely lost as a person because of this war. I try hard to concentrate on things that takes my mind out of this lunacy, but it is overhelming. It is not so much anxiety and fear anymore, but depression and total loss of hope that mankind learns someday to make this damn stupid planet a good place for EVERYONE, not just for power-hungry madmen and oligarchs...

Life has beaten me to the ground. Covid-19 pandemic and this finished me. I don't know how I can ever recover from this.

Good things happen in my life, but those tend to be pathetic compared to the bad things (in regards of how they make me feel). When Ju-On 1 & 2 movies were released on Blu-ray in Nordic countries, I was really happy about it for a few days. Good, but this Ukraine thing has caused me MASSIVE amount to NEGATIVE feelings for 6 weeks now! There is no "balancing out".

As a very introverted person I am good at being alone, but when I am bombed this much with shocking things (Trumpism, Brexit, Covid-19, war in Ukraine etc.), processing things "by myself" almost completely alone is HARD!