Europe at War

[Todd]

Apparently there are people out there who think that the Ukrainian army should have surrendered in day one without firing a single shot, Zelensky and his government should have fled to Warsaw in day one and the Ukrainian people should have contented themselves with living under a Russian puppet regime or even acquiesced to being annexed by Russia altogether --- all in the name of peace.

Ukrainians have fought valiantly, and as long as they believe that is the best course of action for their country and themselves, they should do so.  Like in Yemen and Syria, fighting will continue for a protracted period of time, and thousands more will die and suffer.  At the end of the war, the best-case scenario is that Ukrainian borders will revert to pre-2014 boundaries, Russia will be forced to pay reparations via confiscatory actions by Western powers, and maybe some Russian leaders and soldiers stand "trial" for war crimes.  NATO membership is unlikely, though perhaps EU membership is in the offing, though that is a second-rate reward.  As long as zero Americans die for Ukrainian democracy, all outcomes short of NATO membership for Ukraine are acceptable. 

[DavidW]

Firefox has an incognito mode that they call something else. 🤔

It is called private mode on FF.  Which is funny because the trackers still know who you are unless you have something to block trackers.

[Madiel]

Can't read in its entirety, paywall.

That's odd, I didn't get a paywall. Perhaps you had already read your free article for the month and I hadn't.

[Madiel]

It speaks volumes about Todd that he brings up "translated German" as an issue.

Seriously, this is a man who, despite his Beethoven fetish, continually communicates American exceptionalism in everything he ever says about the modern world.

Just stop talking to him. If you're not American he finds you to be inherently amusing and won't actually listen to a damn thing you say.  Because he believes in your inferiority.

[T. D.]

Thanks, good article.
I agree that a coup is extremely unlikely. Authors hedge a bit in last para, but that seems to be wishful thinking.

Unrelated and mere speculation, but I have a feeling that an extraordinary counterespionage operation must have been carried out within the Ukrainian military.

When the invasion kicked off, I assumed that the Russians had seeded the Ukraine military command with all kinds of moles, sleeper agents, fifth columnists, etc., who would then sabotage/nullify Ukraine's defense. This seems not to have been the case, though I did read one story about two high-ranking presumed Ukrainian military traitors being arrested. I'm really surprised, and give Ukraine a lot of credit. I'm sure the Russians must have tried hard.

[LKB]

Ukraine may have had help from NATO, UK or US agencies. In any event, it certainly seems that Putin was upset with the failure to undermine Ukraine from within.

[Gurn Blanston]

I was just forced to delete an article that a member posted here in toto from behind a paywall.  While it was a very interesting article,  I ask that you please keep in mind that the Forum owner can get sued for copyright infringement.  Fair use bits and pieces that expose the gist will likely be fine if you don't push the limits too hard.   

🤠😎  GB

[Todd]

It speaks volumes about Todd that he brings up "translated German" as an issue.

I also would not read 1000+ pages about Rome written in English by an American in the 19th Century.

[JBS]

It speaks volumes about Todd that he brings up "translated German" as an issue.

Seriously, this is a man who, despite his Beethoven fetish, continually communicates American exceptionalism in everything he ever says about the modern world.

Just stop talking to him. If you're not American he finds you to be inherently amusing and won't actually listen to a damn thing you say.  Because he believes in your inferiority.

He treats us Americans the same way.

[JBS]

TD
Especially for 71dB
From Twitter, this is supposed to be a Finnish reaction to Russia's threats
https://twitter.com/Odessa_Journal/status/1515399841236541443

[Karl Henning]

He treats us Americans the same way.

His friends always speak highly of him, though.

[Madiel]

His friends always speak highly of him, though.

[SimonNZ]

Todd, have you read Theodor Mommsen's Roman History? If not, I urge you to read it. I know no other history book which explains that clearly and in such a stylsih prose (the work won him the Nobel Prize for Literature) the inexorable logic which lies behind the birth, growth and expansion of an empire. Far from being something irrational and unnatural, NATO and its expansion is the only too logical consequence of the original USA taking the very first expansionist step.

Actually, I recommend this three-volume treatise to anyone interested in history --- political, geopolitical, social, religious and cultural. A fascinating reading.

Following up on this I see there was once an Everyman/Dent edition, though I don't remember ever encountering it in secondhand bookshops.

[71 dB]

He treats us Americans the same way.

Seems like he does. 

TD
Especially for 71dB
From Twitter, this is supposed to be a Finnish reaction to Russia's threats
https://twitter.com/Odessa_Journal/status/1515399841236541443

I have no clue how to comment on this....

[MusicTurner]

Fake photos of the damaged Moskva have been published, but this one seems more accepted

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1515878099161952260

And now a video
( "It was a special wind operation; the wind was so fast, that the water had even no time to form waves." )

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1515958749705478152

'Novaya Gazeta' story including interview. Mentions three missiles (?) and around 40 fatalities. The captain survived, as seen on the parade video. That the start of the parade video is silent probably reflects that sensitive information, say about the number of sailors present, is being announced.
https://novayagazetaeu.substack.com/p/--29c (in Russian)

[LKB]

Look's like a new dimension in drone usage:

https://warriormaven.com/sea/united-states-sends-drone-boats-ukraine

[Todd]

Look's like a new dimension in drone usage:

https://warriormaven.com/sea/united-states-sends-drone-boats-ukraine

As with the delivery of Switchblade drones to Ukrainian forces, this represents an excellent chance to field test existing hardware against the Russians - in preparation for use against the Chinese.  Oh, and some war profiteers get to make a few bucks. 

[LKB]

As with the delivery of Switchblade drones to Ukrainian forces, this represents an excellent chance to field test existing hardware against the Russians - in preparation for use against the Chinese.  Oh, and some war profiteers get to make a few bucks.

Obviously. But if it helps the Ukrainians, I'm all for it.

[Todd]

Obviously. But if it helps the Ukrainians, I'm all for it.

It may very well end up causing yet another tit-for-tat, like when the Moskva was destroyed and Russia fired missiles at a variety of cities, including cities it had not bombarded yet, killing more civilians.  That can be construed as a sort of help, I guess.

I'd say it is surreal that people would ever say that they are for field testing weapons systems and war profiteering given the abysmal history of the US in this regard, but then we all live in Creel's world now.

[Todd]

Ukraine says Russia's offensive in Donbas has begun. Here's what we know

Ukraine did not capitulate quickly, perhaps as they were expected to.  Russia has continued on pulverizing its smaller neighbor, despite the triumphalist proclamations of its military ineptitude by war cheerleaders sitting thousands of miles away.  (It is notable that currently serving military leaders have been much more circumspect in their assessment of Russian weakness and incompetence than netizens.)  One must wonder how long this will last and how many thousands more civilians will die. 

It is also worth noting that the official line of the Ukrainian government is at odds with other analyses, as the linked article indicates.