Europe at War

[drogulus]

     

Obviously. But if it helps the Ukrainians, I'm all for it.

     The weapons sent to Ukraine have all been well tested.

     Thousands of miles away observers are feeding accurate information about the war to cheerleaders. Given the foggy nature of warfare it's not perfect. Sifting truth from propaganda does require some skill, but it's not much different from what you use to handle the media bias problem, which is mostly pseudo. If you can't handle that, then maybe war will be too much for you, too.

     I failed at profiteering, so I can't claim any special insight into it. If anyone has a hot tip, I'm all ears.

[relm1]

Youtube gave me this suggestion which I really enjoyed.  Basically, a young Russian girl answering Westerners youtube questions about the Russian experience of the invasion.  I will confess, at the start I was ambivalent, but it does show that Russians (especially younger Russians who are savvy and maybe have experienced other countries) are victims and at risk of their wellbeing and safety to resist.  What do you all think?  It's so frustrating that this is happening but so complicated when you hear her response to why Russians seem to support Putin, etc.  I'm just sad at this gross injustice but don't know how to process it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFL8YXp_Reo

[Karl Henning]

Youtube gave me this suggestion which I really enjoyed.  Basically, a young Russian girl answering Westerners youtube questions about the Russian experience of the invasion.  I will confess, at the start I was ambivalent, but it does show that Russians (especially younger Russians who are savvy and maybe have experienced other countries) are victims and at risk of their wellbeing and safety to resist.  What do you all think?  It's so frustrating that this is happening but so complicated when you hear her response to why Russians seem to support Putin, etc.  I'm just sad at this gross injustice but don't know how to process it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFL8YXp_Reo

The Russians have indeed been Putin's first victims.

[drogulus]

Youtube gave me this suggestion which I really enjoyed.  Basically, a young Russian girl answering Westerners youtube questions about the Russian experience of the invasion.  I will confess, at the start I was ambivalent, but it does show that Russians (especially younger Russians who are savvy and maybe have experienced other countries) are victims and at risk of their wellbeing and safety to resist.  What do you all think?  It's so frustrating that this is happening but so complicated when you hear her response to why Russians seem to support Putin, etc.  I'm just sad at this gross injustice but don't know how to process it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFL8YXp_Reo

     I've been following Natasha for a few months. One of her vids talked about her trip to America. Her vid about getting a drivers license has 176,000 views.

[relm1]

     I've been following Natasha for a few months. One of her vids talked about her trip to America. Her vid about getting a drivers license has 176,000 views.

America must be incredibly jarring for someone from a small Russian town.  A few years ago, I had a neighbor who was from Western Russia (he was Moscow, but his wife was near the border of Finland).  Very lovely and warm family who were such fish out of water.  We couldn't communicate without google translator which was quite funny as they were speaking to me in fluent Russian even though I don't speak it at all and of course I was responding in English which they couldn't understand even if it was simply "yes".  It was quite funny actually.  They invited me to their home for dinner and gave me borscht which was quite delicious then we sat miscommunicating with each other while having vodka.  They had two very young adorable kids who didn't speak any English and then started preschool, how jarring that must have been to all of them.  I wish them peace and removal of Putin.  He's a very bad man.

[Todd]

What If the War in Ukraine Doesn't End?

The Global Consequences of a Long Conflict

Time could be on Russia's side. A protracted war, lasting from months to years, might be an acceptable and perhaps even favorable outcome for Moscow...

Ukraine also has many reasons not to end the war through a premature cease-fire on Russian terms...

Other conflicts, such as the war in Syria that has long faded from view, demonstrate that a never-ending war can become a nuisance to comfortable and distracted societies, receiving little more than neglect over time.

[T. D.]

For what it's worth (there seems to be a coordinated Western strategy to goad Putin with news headlines):

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-20/putin-s-war-in-ukraine-has-russian-elites-fearing-global-isolation

Almost eight weeks after Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine, with military losses mounting and Russia facing unprecedented international isolation, a small but growing number of senior Kremlin insiders are quietly questioning his decision to go to war.

The ranks of the critics at the pinnacle of power remain limited, spread across high-level posts in government and state-run business. They believe the invasion was a catastrophic mistake that will set the country back for years, according to ten people with direct knowledge of the situation. All spoke on condition of anonymity, too fearful of retribution to comment publicly.

So far, these people see no chance the Russian president will change course and no prospect of any challenge to him at home. More and more reliant on a narrowing circle of hardline advisers, Putin has dismissed attempts by other officials to warn him of the crippling economic and political cost, they said....

Probable paywall which could be circumvented.

[Todd]

there seems to be a coordinated Western strategy to goad Putin with news headlines

So is western war propaganda working?

[drogulus]

      Now are the MIGs, approximately 20 of them. Don't ask where they came from. It seems that some of them came as parts you can assemble at home, or there might be parts that enable Uke planes to return to service. In addition there are helicopters

     Some of the best propaganda comes from Russian TV shows. I also think the intercepted phone calls of Russian soldiers calling their moms and wives are plusgood.

     Did you know you could only get $10k in fiat currency for a used Russian T-72 in the Ukraine market? That's not enough to buy a 2017 Toyota Corolla in the US.

[milk]

What If the War in Ukraine Doesn't End?

The Global Consequences of a Long Conflict

Interesting. At the start of this, a friend of mine said he hoped Russia would get bogged down like in Afghanistan. Frankly, I don't know the history well. I'm assuming there's some chance that a protracted war in Ukraine could have the opposite effect. That is, it could weaken Putin and Russia? Of course, more killing can't be a good thing in itself, even if the outcome justifies the sacrifice in some people's minds. But it's worth considering how Russia could keep it going and wear down Ukraine and its supporters.

[Spotted Horses]

The Soviet Union was much more successful in Afghanistan. They overwhelmed any defenses and installed a puppet regime within weeks. A long relentless insurgency followed, which undermined the Soviet Union itself. Purim's plan to overwhelm the Ukrainian defenses and install a pro-Russian regime failed. Even if he eventually gains Ukrainian territory the insurgency will follow.

[drogulus]

     Ukraine now has more tanks in the country than Russia. See, free markets work.

[BasilValentine]

     Ukraine now has more tanks in the country than Russia. See, free markets work.

Tanks? They now call them mobile crematories, don't they?

[milk]

The Soviet Union was much more successful in Afghanistan. They overwhelmed any defenses and installed a puppet regime within weeks. A long relentless insurgency followed, which undermined the Soviet Union itself. Purim's plan to overwhelm the Ukrainian defenses and install a pro-Russian regime failed. Even if he eventually gains Ukrainian territory the insurgency will follow.

Sounds like "bogged down."

[Que]

The Interfax news agency reports the deputy commander of Russia's central military district, Rustam Minnekayev, said it plans to take full control of Donbas and southern Ukraine as part of the second phase of the military operation.

Reuters notes he was also cited as saying that Russia planned to forge a land corridor between Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, and Donbas.

And in a line that will be concerning to Chișinău, he is also reported to have said that control of Ukraine's south will give Russia another gateway to Moldova's breakaway region of Transnistria.

"Control over the south of Ukraine is another way to Transnistria, where there is also evidence that the Russian-speaking population is being oppressed," Tass quoted Minnekayev as saying at a meeting in Russia's central Sverdlovsk region.

This would mean that Odessa isn't safe after all and that Russia wants to push west, all the way to the Ukranian borders with Romania and Moldova... Another Pandora's box...

[Florestan]

Transnistria, where there is also evidence that the Russian-speaking population is being oppressed

Yet another tipically Russian lie. Transnistria is de facto independent from Moldova and is home to the former 14th Army of the USSR, once headed by the (in)famous late Gen. Alexander Lebed who in the 1990s stated they can occupy Bucharest in 24 hours.

[drogulus]

This would mean that Odessa isn't safe after all and that Russia wants to push west, all the way to the Ukranian borders with Romania and Moldova... Another Pandora's box...

     The real question is whether Russia is capable of pushing west or even holding the positions they occupy now.

     The Black Sea fleet was supposed to support an amphibious landing near Odesa to accomplish their goal of taking the city and eventually linking up with Transnistria. I don't see that happening.

   

[LKB]

From a couple of days ago, a minority opinion:

https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/destroy-the-russian-army-now-or-putins-world-order-wins/

[Que]

     The real question is whether Russia is capable of pushing west or even holding the positions they occupy now.

     The Black Sea fleet was supposed to support an amphibious landing near Odesa to accomplish their goal of taking the city and eventually linking up with Transnistria. I don't see that happening.

I agree. But Russia's attempt will cause more unnecessary bloodshed and means it will be even more difficult for Putin to safe face in case of failure. But I hope it will overstretch Russian military capabilities and turn out to be another strategic blunder...

[Todd]

From a couple of days ago, a minority opinion:

https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/destroy-the-russian-army-now-or-putins-world-order-wins/

In this case, bolder is safer.