Europe at War

[LKB]

Not surprising news, but still a significant development - and a big set back for Putin:

Sweden and Finland agree to submit Nato applications, say reports


I like this picture of the prime ministers of Sweden and Finland.
A subtle reminder that if this world was run by women instead of elderly sociopathic men, we probably wouldn't be in this mess...

Pretty much guaranteed since Feb. 25th.

Russia will bluster and threaten, but considering their army's lackluster performance in Ukraine, no NATO member should be overly concerned.

[Todd]

A subtle reminder that if this world was run by women instead of elderly sociopathic men, we probably wouldn't be in this mess...

That is doubtful, to say the least.  The martial history of queens is not especially encouraging, and then of course there is Secretary of State Clinton joking of Qaddafi "We came, we saw, he died."  One need not review history much to see that women will shed the blood of thousands quite readily.  Essentially nothing can be gleaned from a photo of two female heads of government from two small countries desperately seeking protection from the global hegemon. 

[BasilValentine]

That is doubtful, to say the least.  The martial history of queens is not especially encouraging, and then of course there is Secretary of State Clinton joking of Qaddafi "We came, we saw, he died."  One need not review history much to see that women will shed the blood of thousands quite readily.  Essentially nothing can be gleaned from a photo of two female heads of government from two small countries desperately seeking protection from the global hegemon.

I agree with the main point. But I don't see Finnish desperation. They've been conscientiously preparing their own defense for decades. It's rational bet hedging from a viable defensive partner.

[Todd]

I'm a sensing a bit of mania about this war in the media.

In the US, the pro-war propaganda has been the most unyielding since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.  And just like then, it worked, at least for a while.  The rally around the flag effect is real, and it does not have to be the US flag, it can be an anointed flag.  Fortunately for the administration, since US soldiers will not be sent to Ukraine, the threshold for support is much lower.  There would be more resistance if American servicemembers were to go and die.  There might even be large, completely ineffective protests like in 2003.

In the (so far) far deadlier wars in Syria and Yemen there was and has been no similar degree of war cheerleading, due to a variety of factors.  Race is one, certainly.  (Similarly, the genocide in Myanmar receives almost no attention in the popular press in the US.)  White people are dying and that imparts a greater sense of urgency.  Complexity is another reason.  The relative role of putative allies is another.  The US will never react quite so badly to actions, even of the most horrific sort, taken by the House of Saud.  The strategic implications of the war in Yemen are quite significant to the region as a whole, and can be considered as important to US interests as the fate of Ukraine, but one would never know it from the comparative press coverage.

Press coverage has started to wane a bit in the last couple weeks as it has become clear that this will be a longer war than anticipated.  Now the stories will be repetitive; attention wanders and priorities change.  Ukraine will receive all manner of support - just yesterday the administration boasted of sending almost $4 billion in military aid so far - and the US announced its policy of weakening Russia yesterday, which means the support will continue to flow as the US actively helps to prolong the war in Ukraine.  Thousands more will die, maybe tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands, but they will all be in Ukraine and the blood will all be Slavic.  The refugee crisis will be confined primarily to Eastern Europe, and even if it spills into Western Europe, that means basically nothing from an American perspective.  Ukrainian blood will help further perceived US strategic interests - here, a supposedly weakened Russia, though the US is still constrained in actions it can directly take.  I hope Ukrainian people and politicians do not have high hopes for US rewards and actions after the war ends. 

[Todd]

Ukraine prepares war crimes charges against Russian military personnel, including pilots

David Schwendiman, a former U.S. federal prosecutor who has also helped prosecute war crimes committed during the Balkan wars in the 1990s, praised Ukraine's prosecutor general as talented and courageous but said the country doesn't have experience of an investigation of this scale and will need outside help processing potential crime scenes in a way that meets international standards.

The show trials cannot begin soon enough. 

[drogulus]

I agree with the main point. But I don't see Finnish desperation. They've been conscientiously preparing their own defense for decades. It's rational bet hedging from a viable defensive partner.

     From the NATO perspective it's much appreciated.

     

[Todd]

How Russia is splitting the EU

Putin is turning the tables on sanctions

The larger issue is the rouble demand itself and how it circumvents sanctions...

Uniper, Germany's largest gas buyer, said recently that it thought the scheme was compliant...

Russia uses hydrocarbons as a weapon, and some duplicitous sorts determine how to keep on using Russian hydrocarbons anyway. 

Per the article, Finland is 99% reliant on Russian gas, so Ms Marin had best secure alternative energy sources before joining NATO.  She knows that, of course.  LNG is not the answer in 2022-23.

[Todd]

Finland's energy sources are not your concern Todd.

Of course they are.  Finland wants to join NATO.  That means Finland will rely on American security guarantees. 

[Todd]

"Some People More Equal Than Others": WHO Chief On Ukraine War Coverage

The head of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanon Ghebreyesus, has criticised the coverage of the war in Ukraine, calling it racist.

[Todd]

By that that logic the energy sources of almost 3 dozen countries are your concern.

That is sort of correct.  Actually, the number is higher than that since Europe is not the center of the world and the US also offers security guarantees to other non-European countries. 

[Florestan]

if this world was run by women instead of elderly sociopathic men, we probably wouldn't be in this mess...

I disagree. Ever since recorded history there has been ample documentation that women can be as ruthless, bloodthirsty and hawkish leaders as any man. 

[Todd]

What the fuck are we Finns supposed to do?

Ideally, Finns should fend for themselves, or form alliances as necessary with any country in the world other than the US. 

Ever since recorded history there has been ample documentation that women can be as ruthless, bloodthirsty and hawkish leaders as any man.

Facts are stubborn things.

[Florestan]

Ideally

This word has no place in any meaningful discussion about politics and history.

[Karl Henning]

Well, I'm sorry I live in a country next to Russia and you have to live in a country offering security guarantees to dozens of countries over the World. Life isn't perfect... 

I guess in a perfect world only the USA existed...

What the fuck are we Finns supposed to do? We have the cards we have and we try to play the best we can using them.

I am so TIRED of the SHIT!!! Covid, Ukraine, Russia, Nato AND Your FCKING american exceptionalism!! Why is all of this so Shitty?

YHM

[71 dB]

YHM

Damn I forgot to ignore him. 

[Karl Henning]

Damn I forgot to ignore him. 

And he takes advantage of you.

[Todd]

What do you think we have been doing all these years? It has been enough, but Russian attack to Ukraine changed everything. That is why Finland and Sweden suddenly want to join Nato.

Yes, I understand the post-war foreign policy of Finland and the proximate cause of the policy shift. 

Extending American security guarantees to Finland is unacceptable.  Discontent among some NATO members may still prevent it. 

Smarkets put a 37% chance of Sweden and Finland joining NATO in 2022 back in March, but I don't subscribe to the site or any other gambling site, so I do not the current estimated probability.  It is too high, whatever it is.

This word has no place in any meaningful discussion about politics and history.

Not true.  It sounds/reads nice.  It's definitely nicer than discussing spheres of influence and accepting that some nations may end up being absorbed into the Russian orbit, which is an acceptable outcome.

[Todd]

Inability to Quickly Replace Stingers and Javelins for Ukraine Highlights Industrial Base Problems

Uncle Sam had best throw more money at struggling defense contractors.

[Florestan]

Finns should

Finland is a sovereign nation, they do whatever they freely choose to do . Neither Putin nor anyone else has any business telling them what they should or should not do.

some nations may end up being absorbed into the Russian orbit, which is an acceptable outcome.

It might be acceptable for you, Todd, but you are not the center of the world. And I haste to add, God be praised you are not in charge of the USA foreign policy either.

[Todd]

Finland is a sovereign nation, they do whatever they freely choose to do . Neither Putin nor anyone else has any business telling them what they should or should not do.

Finland is a small country bordering a large, currently hostile country.  Smaller countries must take into account the actions and pronouncements of larger, more powerful countries, especially those that share borders.  Other countries can be ignored.  For instance, Finnish policy makers are weighing actions and pronouncements made by Russia and the US.  I suspect they are not considering the official policy position of Peru.  Not all countries are equal.  The idea that a small country can "freely" choose to pursue security arrangements is suspect.

It might be acceptable for you, Todd, but you are not the center of the world. And I hadsten to add, God be praised you are not in charge of the USA foreign policy either.

A bizarrely personalized response. 

From a national security position, there is no threat to the US if, say, the Baltics were controlled by Russia.  Each individual nation state should be assessed on its own, taking into consideration an array of factors.  Continual expansion of a security framework that places a lopsided, undue, and ultimately unacceptable burden on the US is a very bad idea.