Europe at War

[drogulus]

     What stands out about the meeting is that the deniability explains the secrecy. Nothing is official, nothing is agreed to, no one has been betrayed etc.

     The obvious model is the Cuban Missile Crisis. In fact none of the people involved nor innocent bystanders have a superior model to use.

     Whether or not there is a front channel there will be a back channel. I think the bored and /or fearful should understand that our WWIII exercise won't be of the nuclear variety.

     Other than that we don't give out no information and no fighting in the War Room.

[71 dB]

Finland and UK sign joint security declaration

"We make these commitments to our friends in Finland not just because we can, but because we must," PM Johnson said in a press conference after meeting President Sauli Niinistö.

When asked about the Kremlin's thoughts on a possible Nato membership Niinistö denounced Russia's attempt to remove Finland and Sweden's agency over the decision.

"If the case is that we join well, my response [to Russia] would be that you caused this, look at the mirror," Niinistö said.

https://yle.fi/news/3-12441348

[steve ridgway]

Good, that should give Finland a bit of extra security while they go through the NATO joining process. And the same thing applies to Sweden.

[krummholz]

Good, that should give Finland a bit of extra security while they go through the NATO joining process. And the same thing applies to Sweden.

+1

[71 dB]

Good, that should give Finland a bit of extra security while they go through the NATO joining process. And the same thing applies to Sweden.

+1

Yes. I'm feeling more secure now, but the following months are risky. Apparently Russia will close the natural gas lines to Finland tomorrow, so we need to figure out how to deal with that. 

[Florestan]

Yes. I'm feeling more secure now, but the following months are risky. Apparently Russia will close the natural gas lines to Finland tomorrow, so we need to figure out how to deal with that. 

I think that if Russia attacked Finland right now your nation alone, without any help, would inflict a crushing defeat on the Muscovites --- but such an attack is highly unlikely so cheer up. 

The gas war, otoh...

[71 dB]

I think that if Russia attacked Finland right now your nation alone, without any help, would inflict a crushing defeat on the Muscovites --- but such an attack is highly unlikely so cheer up. 

The gas war, otoh...

Yes, it would be insane for Russia to attack at the moment, but it is a terror country doing insane things. What they are doing in Ukraine is completely insane. We can't rely on sanity anymore. That's why Finland and Sweden want to join NATO after the last few months. What else can you do when a country next to you has gone insane? 

In the long term there will be solutions to get rid of Russian energy, but in the short term there will be problems and challenges.

[drogulus]

     Sweden is very capable with a significant arms industry. They export weapons to the US. Thailand flies Gripens and so do the Czechs and several other countries. For a nation of 10 million people this is extraordinary. On a per capita basis they are in 4th place for weapons exports behind Israel, Russia and France.

[Karl Henning]

In the long term there will be solutions to get rid of Russian energy, but in the short term there will be problems and challenges.

Yes.

[Spotted Horses]

Yes.

Fracking boom, 2.0

[Florestan]

That's why Finland and Sweden want to join NATO after the last few months. What else can you do when a country next to you has gone insane? 

I'm all in favor of Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

[vandermolen]

Finland and UK sign joint security declaration

"We make these commitments to our friends in Finland not just because we can, but because we must," PM Johnson said in a press conference after meeting President Sauli Niinistö.

When asked about the Kremlin's thoughts on a possible Nato membership Niinistö denounced Russia's attempt to remove Finland and Sweden's agency over the decision.

"If the case is that we join well, my response [to Russia] would be that you caused this, look at the mirror," Niinistö said.

https://yle.fi/news/3-12441348

What a great response!

[Todd]

I'm all in favor of Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

What benefit does it provide the US? 

[MusicTurner]

     Sweden is very capable with a significant arms industry. They export weapons to the US. Thailand flies Gripens and so do the Czechs and several other countries. For a nation of 10 million people this is extraordinary. On a per capita basis they are in 4th place for weapons exports behind Israel, Russia and France.

The army itself is estimated as rather weak though, due to decades with cuts, but recent budgets will be gradually compensating for it. The navy and airforce is said to be better.

As a result of Sweden joining NATO, the most likely harassments from Russia are thought to be 1) cyber attacks 2) airspace intrusions etc. 3) stationing of more weapons/forces closer to Sweden, including nuclear, that might very well already be in the Kaliningrad enclave 4) propaganda and disinformation 5) poisonings and murders 6) military attacks, but considered unlikely.

Finland also thinks of possible, Russia-organized refugee invasions, etc.

As regards the increased Danish army budgets, things are expected to go slow, and the new wave of inflation might reduce the effect considerably. The new deployment of just a 1000-men strong and modern force in the Baltic republics, close to the border with Russia, is even said to put some strain on the army at home here.

The Finnish army is considered very strong, however - 280,000 plus 900,000 in reserve, with good training and equipment, etc.

[Todd]

The Finnish army is considered very strong, however.

Finland has about 22,000 active personnel.  It has a small military.  Add in reserves, and it looks better, but not much.  Of course, all European countries other than France have small, ineffectual militaries that cannot project power on their own.  The UK gains strength through its very close, so-called "special relationship" with the US.

Finland may be able to put up a decent resistance, especially if backed by the US, but Russia could level Helsinki whereas Finland could not level Moscow.  Were there a war between the two, it would likely be a stalemate with most physical destruction in Finland and most civilian deaths in Finland.

It of course makes sense for Finland to want to join NATO, but it will become one more security consumer that US taxpayers have to pay to defend. 

[Todd]

The Finnish army is considered very strong, however - 280,000 plus 900,000 in reserve, with good training and equipment, etc.

Finland does not currently have a 280K personnel military.  That is its so-called wartime strength.

[Florestan]

What benefit does it provide the US?

First, NATO is currently an alliance of 30 countries. It's not about the US only.

Second, you should address that question to the White House, the Pentagon and the Congress, not to me, for it is they who will OK the expansion.

Finland does not currently have a 280K personnel military.  That is its so-called wartime strength.

And the issue at hand is precisely a Russian-Finnish war.

[71 dB]

Thanks for defending Finland's military capabilities, but trying to make Todd see the light is pretty hopeless I am afraid. Luckily, Finland doesn't need Todd's approval.

[LKB]

Folks, always bear in mind that Todd is not a patriotic citizen of the US:

...If you are trying to inquire about whether I would fight and die for the US, no, I would not.  The US military would not want me to; I am well past the maximum enlistment age even for US Space Force.  Perhaps if Chinese Special Forces invaded the suburbs of Portland and threatened to seize my Beethoven piano sonata collection I might dust off my Remington 11-48 and fight back with the ferocity of Comanche warriors, but in the real world, the US Air Force, US Navy, US Army, and US Marines would do the fighting for me.

Whenever Todd refers to " the US ", I'd suggest reading it as, " my wallet ". This will cut through his disingenuous efforts, and reveal his true meaning. 

[Florestan]

Russia could level Helsinki

If you mean nukes, you're right --- but then again they could level New York too so it's not very relevant. If you mean a strictly conventional war, right now it's very doubtful they could.