Europe at War

[Todd]

Newsweek is a reputable corporate press outlet:

Is Putin Dead? Pay Attention When Russia Starts Broadcasting 'Swan Lake'

[Spotted Horses]

Newsweek is a reputable corporate press outlet:

Is Putin Dead? Pay Attention When Russia Starts Broadcasting 'Swan Lake'

Quite so, back in 1991 my father-in-law was queueing for cheese on Tverskaya street in Moscow when a column of tanks rumbled down the street towards the Kremlin. When he got home, Swan Lake was on the tele.

[Herman]

It's one of the reasons I'm not a Swan Lake fan.

[71 dB]

Finnish parliament voted to support NATO membership 188 - 8.

The Minister of foreign affairs Pekka Haavisto has signed the application today. It will be delivered to Jens Stoltenberg tomorrow Wednesday together with the application of Sweden.

[drogulus]

     India won't buy Russian KA-31 copters, a $1B deal. There are a couple of problems, one being difficulty in making payments to Russia, and another that India doesn't think Russia will be able to deliver the order.

     The way I see it is India is the only quasi-ally that isn't a decrepit or useless "Stan". Chinese support is mostly rhetorical, and it's clear they are more vulnerable to sanctions in the near term than the Russians. The Chinese would prefer to circle the bowl slowly and not quickly.

     The meeting of the Stans:

     

[Karl Henning]

No representation from MAGAstan?

[Todd]

Greek's leader tells Congress democracy is tested by Russia

Should I be worried about this headline?

[T. D.]

Fertile ground for conspiracy (and other theorists).

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61484222

Retired colonel speaks out on Russian TV

Russia's mainstream media outlets offer a view of the Ukraine war that is unlike anything seen from outside of the country. For a start, they don't even call it a war. But our Russia editor reflects on a rare exchange broadcast on state TV.

It was an extraordinary piece of television.

The programme was 60 Minutes, the flagship twice-daily talk show on Russian state TV: studio discussion that promotes the Kremlin line on absolutely everything, including on President Putin's so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine.

The Kremlin still maintains that the Russian offensive is going according to plan.

But on Monday night, studio guest Mikhail Khodarenok, a military analyst and retired colonel, painted a very different picture.

He warned that "the situation [for Russia] will clearly get worse" as Ukraine receives additional military assistance from the West and that "the Ukrainian army can arm a million people".

The article concludes:

So what happened on 60 Minutes? Was this a spontaneous, unprompted and unexpected wake-up call on Ukraine that slipped through the net?

Or was it a pre-planned burst of reality in order to prepare the Russian public for negative news on the progress of the "special military operation"?

It's difficult to say. But as they say on the telly, stay tuned to Russian TV for further signals.

[Todd]

For a start, they don't even call it a war.

That's old hat.  Euphemisms like "police action", "peacekeeping operation", "humanitarian intervention", and my favorite because of its budgetary implications, "overseas contingency operation" are used with no little frequency.  Some are barely even covered by the western press.

[drogulus]

     

Fertile ground for conspiracy (and other theorists).

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61484222

Retired colonel speaks out on Russian TV

Russia's mainstream media outlets offer a view of the Ukraine war that is unlike anything seen from outside of the country. For a start, they don't even call it a war. But our Russia editor reflects on a rare exchange broadcast on state TV.

It was an extraordinary piece of television.

The programme was 60 Minutes, the flagship twice-daily talk show on Russian state TV: studio discussion that promotes the Kremlin line on absolutely everything, including on President Putin's so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine.

The Kremlin still maintains that the Russian offensive is going according to plan.

But on Monday night, studio guest Mikhail Khodarenok, a military analyst and retired colonel, painted a very different picture.

He warned that "the situation [for Russia] will clearly get worse" as Ukraine receives additional military assistance from the West and that "the Ukrainian army can arm a million people".

The article concludes:

So what happened on 60 Minutes? Was this a spontaneous, unprompted and unexpected wake-up call on Ukraine that slipped through the net?

Or was it a pre-planned burst of reality in order to prepare the Russian public for negative news on the progress of the "special military operation"?

It's difficult to say. But as they say on the telly, stay tuned to Russian TV for further signals.

     I saw that. The hostess tried to push back with drivel about evil Brits and friendly China and India. Another thing that's happening is that several Russian war bloggers embedded with the troops have started posting very negative information. Together they have millions of followers on Telegram. I've seen translations of a few of their messages and it's even harsher than what the Colonel said on 60 Minutes.

[drogulus]

     As many as 30,000,000 Russians are developing Big Brains!

     How millions of Russians are tearing holes in the Digital Iron Curtain

Daily downloads in Russia of the 10 most popular VPNs jumped from below 15,000 just before the war to as many as 475,000 in March. As of this week, downloads were continuing at a rate of nearly 300,000 a day, according to data compiled for The Washington Post by the analytics firm Apptopia, which relies on information from apps, public data and an algorithm to come up with estimates.

Russian clients typically download multiple VPNs, but the data suggests millions of new users per month. In early April, Russian telecom operator Yota reported that the number of VPN users was over 50 times as high as in January, according to the Tass state news service.

      They could see everything! They could see the Big Board!

[71 dB]

Now the arm wrestling with Turkey begins... 

[Todd]

Russia's January-April current account surplus more than triples to $96 billion

Some people just can't stop buying Russian hydrocarbons.  Europeans are helping fund Russia's war against a European country to the tune of tens of billions of dollars.  Such a dramatic shift in the current account surplus means that the sanctions are working in that imports have dropped and regular citizens are taking the hit.  Which is of course the plan.  (Russians should count their lucky stars they are not Afghanis.)  But the Europeans have their own plan now:

EU rushes out $300 billion roadmap to ditch Russian energy

The article is light on specifics, but all indications are that this is a multi-year process.  So expect Europeans to continue to partially underwrite the war against Europe for a while longer.  It must be asked, why can't Europeans go big?  $300 billion is peanuts in the global energy game.  Peanuts.  The IPCC previously estimated that $3 trillion per year through 2050 is needed to transform to renewable energy, which is very much part of the new emergency package.  While obviously other programs are underway all over the world, and while Europe represents only a portion of energy consumption, why can't Europe - the wealthiest, highest income part of the world - show the rest of the world how to expedite the transition?  Why not push for, say, $500 billion/year or $1 trillion/year in this time of severe crisis?  I thought the Russo-Ukrainian war was the most urgent crisis in the world right now.  Europe should treat it as such. 

[drogulus]

     I did a thing! Now I'm in Kyiv, or my VPN says so. If I was a Big Brained Russian I could locate there, too.

     I know there are explanations out in explanationland for the difficulty of blocking VPNs. Supposedly VPNs are hard to block when all the servers are outside the country. My service is one of the most popular in Russia and I note I can't locate to Moscow.

     WTF? I'm trying to get back to NY and I ended up in Nuremberg. Now I'm in Rhode Island. That's close enough.

     

[Todd]

Yesterday: Asia-bound Biden gets welcome news on Russia-China trade

Today: China in Talks With Russia to Buy Oil for Strategic Reserves

[71 dB]

Reuters: Erdogan set to speak with Finnish leaders on Saturday.

[Spotted Horses]

Reuters: Erdogan set to speak with Finnish leaders on Saturday.

I have to admire Finnish leaders for having the stomach to meet with that petty tyrant.

[71 dB]

I have to admire Finnish leaders for having the stomach to meet with that petty tyrant.

Erdogan is a paper tiger for Finns. He will learn the best scissors in the World (Fiskars) come from Finland.  0:) ✂️

[Spotted Horses]

Erdogan is a paper tiger for Finns. He will learn the best scissors in the World (Fiskars) come from Finland.  0:) ✂️

Well, he still has veto power. It remains to be seen how to get around that if he has unreasonable demands. It seems like Finland and Sweden are de-factor members even if not official members.

[71 dB]

Well, he still has veto power. It remains to be seen how to get around that if he has unreasonable demands. It seems like Finland and Sweden are de-factor members even if not official members.

Using veto power has its consequences. Sweden and Finland have more friends than enemies. Turkey risks making other NATO countries angry.