Europe at War

[71 dB]

There will probably be more member states willing to make bilateral arrangements with both Sweden and Finland, just as the UK have.  Even if NATO membership is delayed, security will still be enhanced. And, Erdogan won't remain in power forever ( though he probably won't be going away anytime soon ).

It means NATO 2.0 built on bilateral arrangements. Sweden and Finland hoped to get into NATO in 3-6 months, but now the fear is this will takes years. What is really nasty is that Türkeya signaled to us they support our membership before and suddenly they don't. That damn country can't be trusted!

[Madiel]

So it seems Putin was the target of an assassination attempt, and the rumors of illness may be more than rumors.

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-putin-treated-cancer-april-us-intelligence-report-says-1710357

Although there are times when intelligence reports turn out to be little more than rumours on official letterhead. *cough* weapons of mass destruction *cough*

[Todd]

She has a point. Unfortunately, as the op-ed states, there is no clear path for doing this.

Turkey holds one of the most strategically important locations on earth.  People have fought wars over Byzantium for thousands of years.  The author's idealistic outlook on alliances doesn't square with military needs.  The complaint about Turkey being antidemocratic is hollow since it is common to make alliances with undemocratic/antidemocratic regimes.  The best bit of the op-ed is the hollow complaint about Turkey using its veto power.  The people who put NATO together knew what they were doing, and there are reasons no methods to expel members exist.  Remember the continent NATO was designed to protect.

[Todd]

Ukraine Isn't Just Getting American-Made Killer Drones. It's Getting A Whole System For Remote Warfare.

A great deal.  Defense contractors get paid.  Extant drone platforms get to be field tested against Russian electronic defenses.  Training needs in a combat zone where Americans are not directly handling the gear will get sussed out.  This info could all come in handy if this or similar systems end up being used against an even stronger foe, whatever country that may be.  Oh, and maybe it changes the direction of the Russo-Ukrainian war.

[MusicTurner]

Although there are times when intelligence reports turn out to be little more than rumours on official letterhead. *cough* weapons of mass destruction *cough*

Apparently he's wearing massive bulletproof jackets at public events, as shown by a press photo, when he leans down, and it sticks out from his suit on the back. Provided of course the photo isn't manipulated.

[MusicTurner]

Although there are times when intelligence reports turn out to be little more than rumours on official letterhead. *cough* weapons of mass destruction *cough*

Yes, but this problem is also dealt with in the linked article.

[Karl Henning]

So it seems Putin was the target of an assassination attempt, and the rumors of illness may be more than rumors.

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusnnive-putin-treated-cancer-april-us-intelligence-report-says-1710357

Whether there was doubt about the cancer, there remains the caution against thinking the timing will be any asset to Ukraine in the war.

[Karl Henning]

Although there are times when intelligence reports turn out to be little more than rumours on official letterhead. *cough* weapons of mass destruction *cough*

And thank you, sir, for reminding me of Colin Powell's slide show

[drogulus]

     Ukraine is increasingly integrated with its major allies via the advanced weapons systems it has been provided, just as Finland is with the F-35 and its network components. This is NATO without the paperwork. Now, I wouldn't deny that the words on paper have value. I'm just sayin' is all.

[71 dB]

One thing to keep in mind is that the replacement for Putin is more likely to be similar pro-war "conquerer" rather than a person of peace and democracy. We can only hope the Russian oligarchs have suffered so much from this war that they will force the country to course-correct their ambitions as a nation into something that the rest of the World can accept.

[71 dB]

..., just as Finland is with the F-35 and its network components.

Finland just made the deal half a year ago. It will take many years before all of them are delivered: Finland will begin phasing in the F-35 from 2027 onwards.

[MusicTurner]

One thing to keep in mind is that the replacement for Putin is more likely to be similar pro-war "conquerer" rather than a person of peace and democracy. We can only hope the Russian oligarchs have suffered so much from this war that they will force the country to course-correct their ambitions as a nation into something that the rest of the World can accept.

Patrushev seems to be genuinely worse, unless he's acting, which probably isn't the case https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1531956066451394577

whereas Mishustin has kept a low profile recently and he is apparently more of a traditional bureaucrat, with an economy background
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Mishustin

Shoigu is likely considered increasingly incompetent, because of the Ukraine war failures.

Medvedev has turned extremely hawkish and totalitarian in his expressed opinions, in spite of being more liberal earlier, but I haven't heard of anyone in the West suggesting he has real chances as a successor.

[drogulus]

Finland just made the deal half a year ago. It will take many years before all of them are delivered: Finland will begin phasing in the F-35 from 2027 onwards.

     In the meantime Finland will fly Hornets like so:

     https://www.youtube.com/v/sgltp-WM_YU

     I think you will be fine.

[Madiel]

Apparently he's wearing massive bulletproof jackets at public events, as shown by a press photo, when he leans down, and it sticks out from his suit on the back. Provided of course the photo isn't manipulated.

Oh sure, you can pretty well verify something like "he is wearing a bulletproof jacket". The problems can come from ascribing motivations and drawing other conclusions from this. I mean, I'm reasonably confident that Zelenskyy is also wearing bulletproof gear and trying not to get killed, but people draw very different conclusions about this from the context.

Speaking of Zelenskyy, "Servant of the People" has become available for viewing here and it's quite good. It only took me until episode 2 to completely disassociate the character on screen from "this actor actually did become President", perhaps because Kyiv isn't damaged by bombs.

[The new erato]

     Ukraine is increasingly integrated with its major allies via the advanced weapons systems it has been provided, just as Finland is with the F-35 and its network components. This is NATO without the paperwork. Now, I wouldn't deny that the words on paper have value. I'm just sayin' is all.

Scandinavia including Finland now can field >150 F35s + a substantial amount of Swedish JAS Gripens fully NATO interoperable. And a significant numer of F16s and F18s while some of the F-35 are going online. Norways 52 are more or less fully operational now.

[Todd]

Scandinavia including Finland now can field >150 F35s + a substantial amount of Swedish JAS Gripens fully NATO interoperable. And a significant numer of F16s and F18s while some of the F-35 are going online. Norways 52 are more or less fully operational now.

How much experience do Scandinavian air forces have in modern air combat?

[The new erato]

How much experience do Scandinavian air forces have in modern air combat?

Depends upon what you mean by modern. As in the last 10-15 years, few have. Including most US pilots I'd guess.There wasn't much air combat in Afghanistan. And I guess a pilots operational career seldom is more than 15 years.

[Todd]

Depends upon whta you mean by modern. As in the last 1-150 years, few have. Including most US pilots I'd guess.There wasn't much air combat in Afghanistan. And I guess a pilots operational career seldom is more than 15 years.

I was referring to the air forces themselves, as operational branches.  Institutional knowledge and experience leads to enhanced training, planning, etc.  The US Air Force and the US Navy - the first and second largest air forces in the world - have, by far, the most experience in the world.  The Russians have the second most experience in recent years, in places like Syria, where the US also operated - illegally under US law.  And this excludes the ongoing training.  People often tout numeric values as some type of proxy for effective power, but countries that rely on numbers alone are just paper tigers.  Most non-American NATO countries have been put in a place of near complete dependence on the US for logistics, etc.  The design of the F-35 program is the best example of that. 

One byproduct of shutting Turkey out of the F-35 program, as well as some other operations and programs, is that Turkey has developed a not inconsiderable air capability, though it obviously lacks the ability to project power.  Only one country can effectively do that.

Of course, chest pounding about military capacity means nothing when bullets start flying.  After the first Gulf War, the F-117 was held up as a great system with a perfect record.  And then came the Balkans, and the Russians figured out how to shoot one down.  Talk of building up capacities, expanding alliances, hardware counts, and so forth seem rather reminiscent of 1912 or thereabouts.  Who's building the next dreadnaught, and all that.  That's not to say we are the verge of a new world war, just that it's the same old stuff, year after year, century after century. 

[Que]

A burning Orthodox monastery is going to be very bad press in the motherland, but naturally the Ukranian army is to be blamed...

 

All Saints Monastery of Svyatogorsk Lavra

[Todd]

A burning Orthodox monastery is going to be very bad press in the motherland, but naturally the Ukranian army is to be blamed...

Run of the mill war propaganda.  This type of thing happens in every war.   Is there any reason at all to believe that such propaganda would not be used by Europeans in a European war?  What is unique and special about this incident?