Europe at War

[Gurn Blanston]

US fighters 'to be held accountable'

I wonder if the official position of the US government will be that US mercenaries are not really mercenaries. 

Sorry, I meant "volunteers".

By US law,  citizens are not allowed to fight for a foreign country.  Therefore the only correct and lawful option is to do nothing.  While I understand their compulsion to go there,  I can only say 'tough shit', guys,  the country can't be held hostage by your personal choices. 

🤠😎

[Todd]

By US law,  citizens are not allowed to fight for a foreign country.

The question is if the US will take that approach, or if they will use the US mercenaries for other purposes, either publicly or privately.

I do not lament the fate of mercenaries from any country. 

[milk]

The question is if the US will take that approach, or if they will use the US mercenaries for other purposes, either publicly or privately.

I do not lament the fate of mercenaries from any country.

I was talking with a French colleague today about the French Foreign Legion. That s a weird thing. Doesn't seem like there's anything quite like it. Sorry. No thread duty.

[drogulus]

By US law,  citizens are not allowed to fight for a foreign country.  Therefore the only correct and lawful option is to do nothing.  While I understand their compulsion to go there,  I can only say 'tough shit', guys,  the country can't be held hostage by your personal choices. 

🤠😎

     They don't lose their citizenship and it's still in US interests to see that they are treated in accordance with international agreements. When a citizen gets in trouble overseas the US doesn't do nothing, even if the trouble is a criminal matter.

     The time for settlement talks is when Ukraine enters Crimea and Russia finally realizes it has lost the war beyond recovery.

[Que]

By US law,  citizens are not allowed to fight for a foreign country.  Therefore the only correct and lawful option is to do nothing.  While I understand their compulsion to go there,  I can only say 'tough shit', guys,  the country can't be held hostage by your personal choices. 

If they commited an offence under US law (Dutch law has a similar provision), that doesn't take away from the fact that as members of the regular Ukranian army they are protected by the Geneva Conventions. Even though Russia denies this.

[Florestan]

    The time for settlement talks is when Ukraine enters Crimea and Russia finally realizes it has lost the war beyond recovery.

Short of a conventional WWIII, that means never. 

[Todd]

If they commited an offence under US law (Dutch law has a similar provision), that doesn't take away from the fact that as members of the regular Ukranian army they are protected by the Geneva Conventions. Even though Russia denies this.

There are ways around the Geneva Conventions.  For instance, look at Gitmo, which still operates today.  Russians just need to get creative. 

Perhaps Russia executes Americans, perhaps it does not.  The Americans may be more useful alive.

[drogulus]

If they commited an offence under US law (Dutch law has a similar provision), that doesn't take away from the fact that as members of the regular Ukranian army they are protected by the Geneva Conventions. Even though Russia denies this.

     I would think Russia has no standing to prosecute under Ukrainian law. They are in violation of the 1994 agreement to respect the sovereignty of Ukraine, and have been since 2014.

The memorandum prohibited the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, "except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations." As a result of other agreements and the memorandum, between 1993 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons.

     Russia has no self defense rationale, and the US and UK clearly do. Defending Ukraine against military and economic coercion is in the agreement.

[Gurn Blanston]

The question is if the US will take that approach, or if they will use the US mercenaries for other purposes, either publicly or privately.

I do not lament the fate of mercenaries from any country.

Nor do I. Sometimes I admire their pluck, often I don't.  So far, I have only seen them treated by the US gov't as citizens, nothing special about their being 'soldiers'. We'll see.

If they committed an offence under US law (Dutch law has a similar provision), that doesn't take away from the fact that as members of the regular Ukranian army they are protected by the Geneva Conventions. Even though Russia denies this.

We should attempt to get them out just like any other citizen in that predicament. Beyond that, we would be violating our own laws, which were enacted for a very good reason, and I just don't think we should. Sorry, Charlie...

They don't lose their citizenship and it's still in US interests to see that they are treated in accordance with international agreements. When a citizen gets in trouble overseas the US doesn't do nothing, even if the trouble is a criminal matter.

The time for settlement talks is when Ukraine enters Crimea and Russia finally realizes it has lost the war beyond recovery.

All true. If you, Ernie Drogulus, were to stupidly go to Ukraine right now (for whatever reason) and were captured by the Russians, I would expect you to be sitting in jail alongside Brittney Greiner until the whole thing gets resolved. I'd miss your amusing posts, but I would survive it somehow, since I didn't manage to go to Ukraine. Or Uvalde.

[Todd]

Nor do I. Sometimes I admire their pluck, often I don't.  So far, I have only seen them treated by the US gov't as citizens, nothing special about their being 'soldiers'. We'll see.

I would be surprised if the government engaged in a lot of public diplomacy in this situation.  This is the type of scenario where less publicized deals get made.

In an obviously entirely unrelated matter, Attorney General Merrick Garland makes surprise trip to Ukraine. 

[drogulus]

All true. If you, Ernie Drogulus, were to stupidly go to Ukraine right now (for whatever reason) and were captured by the Russians, I would expect you to be sitting in jail alongside Brittney Greiner until the whole thing gets resolved. I'd miss your amusing posts, but I would survive it somehow, since I didn't manage to go to Ukraine. Or Uvalde.

     
     

     

[LKB]

     
     

   

What's Russian for, " Funny, how? "

[Que]

"Finland 'ready to fight Russia if attacked'
Finland's armed forces chief, Gen Timo Kivinen, said his country was prepared for a Russian attack and would put up stiff resistance in the event that one should occur."

Russia's deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, has warned the west to stop talking about triggering Nato's "article 5" mutual defence clause in a standoff between Lithuania and Russia.


Just sabre rattling or is Russia considering escalating the conflict? I wouldn't rule it out...
It would provide a convenient excuse for a Russian general mobilisation. The lack of which has become a serious obstacle in the Russian war effort.

[MusicTurner]

They might try to test, say by organizing an air bridge to Kaliningrad via NATO airspace, convoys, or the like.

There is a real shortage of goods & food in Kaliningrad, prices have sky-rocketed, but Russia is allowed to use ships, if their logistics would function.

[Todd]

Just sabre rattling or is Russia considering escalating the conflict?

Just sabre rattling.

They might try to test, say by organizing an air bridge to Kaliningrad via NATO airspace, convoys, or the like.

Which is a legitimate response to a blockade or to a humanitarian crisis.

[LKB]

I expect to see NATO start repositioning their combat power with a bit more alacrity very soon, if they haven't already.

[MusicTurner]

I expect to see NATO start repositioning their combat power with a bit more alacrity very soon, if they haven't already.

Also because Estonia's PM says that currently, the military means in the region aren't at all enough to secure the territory; the Baltic countries would be destroyed before any re-take by NATO, cf. likewise the Russian war 'tactics' of destruction/stealing in Ukraine.

[Todd]

Also because Estonia's PM says that currently, the military means in the region aren't at all enough to secure the territory; the Baltic countries would be destroyed before any re-take by NATO, cf. likewise the Russian war 'tactics' of destruction/stealing in Ukraine.

US Lieutenant General Ben Hodges stated the same thing in June 2016.  He advocated for an expanded military presence in the region.  Think tank types have been proclaiming the need for an expanded NATO (ie, US) presence in the Baltics for years.

From RAND after the 2014 Russian invasion: Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank

From Brookings just two days ago: Strengthening the US and NATO defense postures in Europe after Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Individuals and institutions that emphasize militaristic solutions as a matter of course typically suggest an expanded military presence.

[MusicTurner]

They might try to test, say by organizing an air bridge to Kaliningrad via NATO airspace, convoys, or the like.

There is a real shortage of goods & food in Kaliningrad, prices have sky-rocketed, but Russia is allowed to use ships, if their logistics would function.

... turns out that the blockade via rail through Lithuania does not involve foods or daily necessities, only steel, coal, advanced technologies and ditto industrial products.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61878929

A few writers foretold the oncoming Kaliningrad issues quite some time ago:

"The situation in Kaliningrad is so bad due to sanctions, that its 1 million residents are stuck in the exclave with no way out, products are even 5x more expensive than in Poland, and authorities are giving away land so people can plant their own potatoes, etc."
https://twitter.com/Exen/status/1514534974380195841 (from back in mid-April)

"Whatever unfolds, Russia and NATO will at some point again have to discuss mutually suitable security arrangements or architecture (...). More realistically, there may simply be a need for a "cold peace" (...)""
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-as-tensions-between-nato-and-russia-increase-look-to-kaliningrad/ (early May)

" ... Kaliningrad could provide a model for future engagement with the Russian "mainland." It could also be a symbol of solidarity that might help all peoples of the Baltic build a bridge (...)"
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/30529/kaliningrad-could-be-a-flashpoint-in-eu-russia-relationship

[Todd]

... turns out that the blockade via rail through Lithuania does not involve foods or daily necessities, only steel, coal, advanced technologies and ditto industrial products.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61878929

That amounts to a partial economic blockade.  That might be construed as an act of war.  The US government would go bananas if any other country dared do that to the US.