Europe at War

[BasilValentine]

I don't really know. I guess Zelenski stays and Russias loses ground and influence? Whatever Russia wants they don't get? They lose control militarily, they have to pull back and they are too broken militarily to return ...

... or Putin dies of cancer and the next despot is too busy for a while being domestically despotic to engage in silly frolics like invading foreign countries.

[Florestan]

I don't really know. I guess Zelenski stays

Actually, this is an interesting topic. If Putin really wants Zelensky out at all costs, why is it that he does basically nothing in this respect? I should have expected a massive attack on, and a tight blockade on, Kyiv itself --- plus massive and repetead aerial strikes on the Presidential Palace or any other location, including bunkers, where Zelensky might hide. Nothing of the sort happened. I do wonder why.

[Spotted Horses]

On the first day of the war Russia tried to storm the presidential compound, sending paratroopers to seize the airport in Kiev. Then the Russians were driven out of the airport and the Blitzkrieg turned into the famous 40 mile armored column on the road to Kiev that didn't move.

[drogulus]

Ukraine definitely gets credit if it survives as an independent country that gets to make its own allies and destiny and remains free of Russian influence. But it seems like a bigger task to humiliate Putin and the Russian political establishment, to destroy it.

     I don't see a difference here. Is there a way for Ukraine to prevail that doesn't humiliate Putin etc?

     If Russia remains determined to be a bad neighbor does that show centuries of humiliation have warped the national psyche? One might argue that the existence of modern Europe has preyed on Russian minds since Peter the Great. The invasions by Sweden, France and Germany solidified the Russian view that they must conquer their neighbors to block the invasion routes. Let it not be said that Russian viewpoints can't be understood. Similar views have been held in Germany. The solution to the dual problems of Germany and Russia is NATO. This has worked well for Germany, while Russia chose confrontation over cooperation and created the Soviet version of traditional imperial Russian design. I judge offering benefits over brute force worked better. NATO thrives, the Warsaw Pact is bye bye, and the Ukraine adventure is a disaster in the making.

[Florestan]

On the first day of the war Russia tried to storm the presidential compound, sending paratroopers to seize the airport in Kiev. Then the Russians were driven out of the airport and the Blitzkrieg turned into the famous 40 mile armored column on the road to Kiev that didn't move.

So, is it actually true that the Russian Army is ultimately incompetent?

[Todd]

I don't really know.

No one does.  And of course Ukraine can't really win in any real sense.  It has already absorbed more than a trillion dollars in damage and suffered tens of thousands of deaths.  The 2020s are lost, and if the war lasts much longer, the 2030s may be as well.  Ukraine could become the next Japan, with multiple lost decades, though of a much worse sort than what Japan faced. 

Then again, post-war reconstruction could herald a new age - not only Ukrainian rebirth, but a Greater Black Sea Renaissance, where arts and culture and science and economies thrive as the region joins the world's elite regions, Russia remains pacified, China stays uninvolved, and the mighty and beneficent United States of America welcomes Ukraine into the brotherhood of nations as an equal partner in the promotion of democracy, liberalism, and justice.

[Florestan]

a Greater Black Sea Renaissance, where arts and culture and science and economies thrive as the region joins the world's elite regions, Russia remains pacified, China stays uninvolved, and the mighty and beneficent United States of America welcomes Ukraine into the brotherhood of nations as an equal partner in the promotion of democracy, liberalism, and justice.

Ojalá!

[Spotted Horses]

So, is it actually true that the Russian Army is ultimately incompetent?

Maybe just that the Ukrainian Army is not as incompetent as the Russian strategy assumed it would be.

[Todd]

What madness is it to take on someone that has a military budget ten times yours?!

Russia maintains a larger nuclear deterrent than the US, which limits US responses and allows Russia a degree of freedom of action in most of the Eurasian landmass.  The sheer size of military budgets, it turns out, is not particularly deterministic.  As another example, see the Taliban, which defeated the United States.

[Florestan]

the Taliban, which defeated the United States.

The Taliban defeated both the USSR and the US --- a feature that will probably remain unique in the annals of history.

[Todd]

The Taliban defeated both the USSR and the US --- no small feature, to be sure.

The Taliban formed in 1994.

[Florestan]

The Taliban formed in 1994.

Formally.

If by Taliban one understands Afghan Islamist forces opposing the Russian-backed Afghan Communist regime and the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, then the Taliban defeated the USSR.

Be it as it might, Afghan Islamist forces under whatever name defeated both the USSR and the US.

[MusicTurner]

So, is it actually true that the Russian Army is ultimately incompetent?

There's been innumerable examples published during the war, from all levels. Here's one story from yesterday, by the soldier Filatev, his ZOV-text, and it's taking incompetence to a very high level; the corruption is absurd:
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1560022545356791810
https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1560279040971313153
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/17/i-dont-see-justice-in-this-war-russian-soldier-exposes-rot-at-core-of-ukraine-invasion
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/17/they-turned-us-into-savages-russian-soldier-describes-start-of-ukraine-invasion
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1560242779602788354

(Ukrainians however tend to point to, how better conditions in Russian the army might have made him busily engaged in the invasion nowadays, without any remorse; he is not a hero)

Here's how much the Russian troops have advanced since the 10th of July (you might need a magnifying glass); they've resolved mostly to long distance bombing, or to failed, local advances:
https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1560042023738134528/photo/1

[Todd]

Formally.

The Mujahideen defeated the USSR. 

[Florestan]

The Mujahideen defeated the USSR.

And eventually many prominent Mujahideen leaders supported or even joined the Taliban.

Be it as it might, Afghan Islamist forces under whatever name defeated both the USSR and the US.

[Todd]

And eventually many prominent Mujahideen leaders supported or even joined the Taliban.

Be it as it might, Afghan Islamist forces under whatever name defeated both the USSR and the US.

The Mujahideen defeated the USSR.

Afghanistan suffered through two civil wars after 1989.

The Taliban formed in 1994.

The Taliban took control of Afghanistan in 1996.

The Taliban defeated the USA.

The Mujahideen was different than the Taliban.

[Florestan]

The Mujahideen was different than the Taliban.

They were both Islamist.

Be it as it might, Afghan Islamist forces under whatever name defeated both the USSR and the US.

[Todd]

They were both Islamist.

Be it as it might, Afghan Islamist forces under whatever name defeated both the USSR and the US.

I will make sure to turn to you when I need to verify facts about Afghanistan.

[Florestan]

I will make sure to turn to you when I need to verify facts about Afghanistan.

It is a fact that Afghan Islamist forces under whatever name defeated both the USSR and the US.

[Todd]

It is a fact that Afghan Islamist forces under whatever name defeated both the USSR and the US.

You wrote that the Taliban defeated the USSR.  I get it, I get it.