Europe at War

[Florestan]

     
     Someone took action to put Dugin in a different car. Why the change in plans? And why was the daughter not protected by putting her in a different car?

     Coincidences are in short supply in Russia. The daughter may have been expendable and her death served a greater good, an excuse to launch the Independence Day attack that Russia is planning according to Uke sources. The Ukes have banned public celebrations for the 24th, so they are serious.

   

Otoh, what kind of father would willingly sacrifice his daughter for the perceived greater good of his country? Is Dugin really that savagely fanatic?

[drogulus]

Otoh, what kind of father would willingly sacrifice his daughter for the perceived greater good of his country? Is Dugin really that savagely fanatic?

    I have no idea what Dugin was told. There's no reason to assume he knew anything.

[Florestan]

    I have no idea what Dugin was told. There's no reason to assume he knew anything.

Indeed. Most probably both he and his daughter were the unwitting victims of a sinister plot.

I reject everything Dugin stands for and I consider him Putin's Alfred Rosenberg but I would never wish or relish such a devastating loss on anyone.

[Todd]

Russia accuses the pictured woman of Dugina's murder.  Apparently, Ms Vovk took refuge in Estonia.  That may end up a factoid of some significance.

[Gurn Blanston]

Russia accuses the pictured woman of Dugina's murder.  Apparently, Ms Vovk took refuge in Estonia.  That may end up a factoid of some significance.

Sounds like the beginning of an excuse for an invasion.... 

[drogulus]

Sounds like the beginning of an excuse for an invasion.... 

    I always take my 12 year old daughter with me on terrorist missions. Good child care is expensive.

[Florestan]

Sounds like the beginning of an excuse for an invasion.... 

Estonia is a NATO member. There will possibly be extremely bellicose sabre-rattling but no invasion.

Heck, Putin's own daughter lives in Western Europe, not in Vladivostok. So do the sons and daughters of Putin's ministers and oligarchs. I'd bet London, New York or Paris is more valuable for all those people than Novosibirsk, Kazan or Kandalaksha. 

[LKB]

Otoh, what kind of father would willingly sacrifice his daughter for the perceived greater good of his country? Is Dugin really that savagely fanatic?

The security for both Dugin and his daughter may not have been under Dugin's control. It may have been the military, the FSB or another organization who had responsibility.

[Florestan]

The security for both Dugin and his daughter may not have been under Dugin's control. It may have been the military, the FSB or another organization who had responsibility.

Yes, indeed.

[Todd]

Against expectations, global food prices have tumbled

Potential good news for people dependent on imported agricultural products.  Potential good news for Russia, not only because it will export more than expected but also because it will not be a global villain causing starvation.  Potential bad news for the US as the dollar remains strong and will likely rise further with more rate hikes, meaning Uncle Sam can be portrayed as hurting the global poor.

[Spotted Horses]

I suspect that we will never know who is responsible, given that the purpose of the "investigation" in Russia is to use the event in the service of propaganda, and when the dust settles there will probably be multiple parties claiming credit. I can imagine (without evidence) that it could be a group within Russia that is opposed to Putin's corruption and adventurism.

The thought also occurred to me that assassination by bomb have a history in Russia. That's how Tzar Alexander II bought it. They built the Church of the Savior on Spilled Blood to mark the location.

[vandermolen]

    I always take my 12 year old daughter with me on terrorist missions. Good child care is expensive.

Good point.

[Madiel]

The important question is not so much who was actually responsible, but who will be blamed.

[Spotted Horses]

The important question is not so much who was actually responsible, but who will be blamed.

The important question is who will be blamed by whom. We already know who the Russian propaganda system blames.

The FSB blamed Chechen rebels for the 1999 apartment bombings, although most people outside Russia are convinced by the evidence that the bombings were carried out by the FSB itself.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

The important question is who will be blamed by whom. We already know who the Russian propaganda system blames.

The FSB blamed Chechen rebels for the 1999 apartment bombings, although most people outside Russia are convinced by the evidence that the bombings were carried out by the FSB itself.

As an aside, I hope that you, SH, are warm and dry?  If I'm recalling correctly, you live in eastern Texas?  Have been hearing about horrible flooding there. 

PD

[Spotted Horses]

As an aside, I hope that you, SH, are warm and dry?  If I'm recalling correctly, you live in eastern Texas?  Have been hearing about horrible flooding there. 

PD

I think the severity of the rains has been exaggerated (easy for me to say, since I wasn't affected). There was flash flooding in some areas of Dallas downtown. Nothing like Harvey, or the Tax Day Storm. I'm in Houston, northern suburbs, and we've had some rain showers that have started to alleviate the drought here. No question of not being warm here.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

I think the severity of the rains has been exaggerated (easy for me to say, since I wasn't affected). There was flash flooding in some areas of Dallas downtown. Nothing like Harvey, or the Tax Day Storm. I'm in Houston, northern suburbs, and we've had some rain showers that have started to alleviate the drought here. No question of not being warm here.

Oh, I was thinking that the flooding was further south and east.  In any event, glad that you're o.k.  Finally getting a bit of rain here, but certainly not enough.  As least it was gentle-to-moderate rainfall.

I realized after typing it that I should have said "cool and dry". lol

PD

[Spotted Horses]

Oh, I was thinking that the flooding was further south and east.  In any event, glad that you're o.k.  Finally getting a bit of rain here, but certainly not enough.  As least it was gentle-to-moderate rainfall.

I realized after typing it that I should have said "cool and dry". lol

PD

We should inquire of Brian, Dallas is his neck of the woods. My impression is it was a localized event, involving urban areas with limited drainage.

[Gurn Blanston]

We should inquire of Brian, Dallas is his neck of the woods. My impression is it was a localized event, involving urban areas with limited drainage.

I talked to him last night while it was still raining here,  he said it was a near thing but he was good.  We had as much as 8-10" here but at my house we had exactly 1.4", I reckon I just don't live right.   

🤠😎

[Todd]

Why the Russian economy keeps beating expectations

Three factors explain why Russia keeps beating the forecasts. The first is policy. Vladimir Putin has little understanding of economics, but he is happy to delegate economic management to people who do...

The second relates to recent economic history. Sergei Shoigu, Russia's defence minister, may have been on to something in February when, according to the Washington Post, he told the British government that Russians "can suffer like no one else". This is the fifth economic crisis the country has faced in 25 years, after 1998, 2008, 2014 and 2020. Anyone older than 40 has memories of the extraordinary economic tumult brought about by the fall of the Soviet Union. People have learned to adapt, rather than panic (or revolt).

Parts of Russia's economy have long been fairly detached from the West. That comes at the cost of lower growth, but it has made the recent increase in isolation less painful. In 2019 the stock of foreign direct investment in the country was worth about 30% of gdp, compared with the global average of 49%. Before the invasion only about 0.3% of Russians with a job worked for an American firm, compared with more than 2% across the rich world. The country requires relatively few foreign supplies of raw materials. Thus the extra isolation has not had much of an impact on the figures to date.

The third factor relates to hydrocarbons. Sanctions have had a limited impact on Russian oil output, according to a recent report by the International Energy Agency. Since the invasion Russia has sold in the region of $85bn-worth of fossil fuels to the EU...

But the next round of sanctions, well, those will cripple Russia.  There is no reason at all to pursue a political settlement.