Europe at War

[Spotted Horses]

I talked to him last night while it was still raining here,  he said it was a near thing but he was good.  We had as much as 8-10" here but at my house we had exactly 1.4", I reckon I just don't live right.   

🤠😎

Yes, 8" isn't nothing, but the April 2016 storm dropped 24" in parts of Houston over 24 hours. A year later Harvey dropped 36". That led to people in some newly built subdivisions to discover that they were within the perimeter of a reservoir.

[drogulus]

     A training center allows Uke pilots to fly the A-10 Warthog in DCS!!

     Be still my lack of heart! This is a thing, valued humanoids.

     https://www.youtube.com/v/bL7Nl8LEbbw&t

     

[Pohjolas Daughter]

I talked to him last night while it was still raining here,  he said it was a near thing but he was good.  We had as much as 8-10" here but at my house we had exactly 1.4", I reckon I just don't live right.   

🤠😎

Glad that you all are o.k.

Personally, I would be quite grateful that I wasn't at the receiving end of 8-10 inches of rain.  Some more rain (gentle) would be a good thing though.

We had some showers pass through yesterday which helped. 

TD

So, today is Ukraine Independence Day, have there been any new attacks by Russia?  I hope not.

PD

[drogulus]

     In Russia there's a rivalry between the FSB and the GRU. It would be ungood for one agency to assassinate someone belonging to or associated with the other service. Skripal was GRU and the GRU attacked him. Litvinenko was FSB, so killing him was up to the FSB, and they did it.

     Dugin is with the GRU, so no matter what the FSB thought of him they wouldn't touch him. On this view only the GRU would attempt to eliminate him. He's in their "sphere of influence".

     Here we go. Dugin is not in the government, and his stance on the war effectively implies Putin is a pussy. The case can be made that Putin is in more danger from Russo-fascists than any other faction in or out of the government. If a coup is attempted, it will be from that direction.

     Dugin is dangerous. The attack on him might serve as a warning to the ultras.

[Karl Henning]

I suspect that we will never know who is responsible, given that the purpose of the "investigation" in Russia is to use the event in the service of propaganda.

This, in spades.

[drogulus]

     Lukashenko, the Belorussian clowntator, can't stop tatoring. He congratulated Ukraine on Independence Day.

[Que]

This war is changing Europe and the world:

Switzerland is bracing for power shortages this winter due to its reliance on Russian gas and French nuclear power, AFP reports.

The country relies on hydropower in the summer months but turns to imports at other times. With Russia slashing gas deliveries, Switzerland is particularly vulnerable as it lacks its own gas storage installations. Exacerbating the issue, France has been forced to halt production at half of its reactors, mainly due to corrosion problems.

The Swiss government but has said it is readying the country for power shortages, with the head of the federal electricity commission, Werner Luginbuhl, warning of repeated, hours-long power cuts.

[Todd]

This war is changing Europe and the world:

Thankfully, Americans are willing to sell more gas to Europeans.

Also, Europe is not the world.  The short-term discomfort of the Swiss doesn't matter a whole heckuva lot.

[Todd]

Sticking with energy, here's a business press headline that will garner some clicks:

UK energy regulator increases price cap by 80%

A typical household gas and electricity bill will rise to £3,549 a year from October

[Todd]

Russia to host war games with China as West joins in Exercise Pitch Black

[Karl Henning]

KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine may be outgunned but in the latest sign it is not yet outfoxed, a fleet of decoys resembling advanced U.S. rocket systems has tricked Russian forces into wasting expensive long-range cruise missiles on dummy targets, according to interviews with senior U.S. and Ukrainian officials and photographs of the replicas reviewed by The Washington Post.

[Todd]

Nord Stream 1: Russia switches off gas pipeline citing maintenance

So much maintenance.

[drogulus]

     I'm now at war with Russia, via 10 shares of LMT.

     My most warlike move is donating to Nova Ukraine. They offer humanitarian aid.

[Que]

Nord Stream 1: Russia switches off gas pipeline citing maintenance

So much maintenance.

Russia is currently burning of $10 mln worth of gas per day to prevent overpressuring the system.

Unlike oil, gas cannot be easily sold off to other customers.
For that you need pipelines and other technically complicated infrastructure. That takes years to build.
Russia is burning its own money and the chances it will ever sell again to Europe are diminishing by the day.

[Mandryka]

Russia is burning its own money and the chances it will ever sell again to Europe are diminishing by the day.

Why wouldn't EC just do a deal with Russia? They get to keep bits of Ukraine, you get their gas. The alternative is . . . well, there is no alternative as far as I can see, at least not for a few years.

[Todd]

Russia is burning its own money and the chances it will ever sell again to Europe are diminishing by the day.

Russia is currently enjoying its largest ever current account surplus.  War is expensive, but Russia can easily afford it right now.

I suspect Europe will buy Russian resources in the future, current threats notwithstanding.

[Mandryka]

once Europe is weaned off cheap gas, by means of rapid investment in other forms of non-Russian energy, I don't foresee a particular need for Europe ever to buy Russian energy sources again.

How many years for that? And in the meantime?

[Karl Henning]

Why wouldn't EC just do a deal with Russia? They get to keep bits of Ukraine, you get their gas.

For only one thing: "bits of Ukraine" does not belong to the EC to bargain with.

[Todd]

Well, when you're not allowed to buy anything from overseas because all your foreign currency accounts are frozen and no-one will do business with you that they don't absolutely have to, a current account surplus is pretty well inevitable.

The significant drop in imports does boost the current account surplus, to be sure, but other countries are doing business with Russia, though not at levels seen in January of this year.  Most of the world does not support The West.

That's a fairly reductionist view of 'afford'. if they are piling up trillion-dollar surpluses because they aren't allowed to spend their cash anywhere, that means they have the cash wherewithal to wage war, but may well run out of the material resources needed to do so practically. If they are bleeding through Vietnam War-like casualty lists in the space of 6 months, that too is a constraint on 'affordability' which your comment seems to be missing.

Russia has a greater degree of autarky than many countries, especially European countries.  Perhaps one day soon Russia really will run out of the most important resource of the day.  When it comes to cutting off hydrocarbons to Europe, that is quick, easy, and cheap.

When it comes to casualties, Russia has a long history of piling up corpses for wars, noble or dubious.  Maybe this time will be different.

once Europe is weaned off cheap gas, by means of rapid investment in other forms of non-Russian energy, I don't foresee a particular need for Europe ever to buy Russian energy sources again.

This is wishful thinking.

[Todd]

The only major economic power being ambivalent about Russia right now is China, and they have far more to lose by pissing off the West than they do smarming up to Russia.

Incorrect.  India has upped some key purchases, primarily of oil of course, and it continues to buy military equipment and other goods.  It is also actively exploring ways to expand non-dollar denominated trade.  India is now the fifth largest economy in the world, having surpassed its former colonial master in size.  One of the tangible outcomes of this war is an acceleration of the shift in global power from west to east.

Autarky is a sign of weakness, not strength.

Meh.  It's an unachievable ideal.  Grubby Mercantilism, exemplified by government programs expending tens of billions of dollars to support key strategic industries (eg, semiconductors), is the practical alternative.  And "reshoring" is an increasingly buzzy word.

Whether autarky is considered a weakness or strength relies upon how much faith one places in economics as an art.  (It is not a science.)

This is the one thing I disagree with you on. I really think the whole Ukrainian business has given a fillip to the idea of doing away with a reliance on fossil fuels. We had Dame Greta haranguing people about it before; now people see the strategic necessity of it.

I agree that it would be more plausible if Germany (for example) would renounce its early shutdown of nuclear power. So yes: it's undoubtedly messy. But I think a direction of movement has been established.

People have recognized the strategic importance of fossil fuels since before the Great War.  Despite very positive press coverage praising the new initiatives being accelerated in Europe, particularly regarding an increased emphasis on renewables, etc, nothing can materially change the reality, outlined by the IPCC, that it will still take decades and tens of trillions of dollars to move away from fossil fuels to reach so-called "sustainability".