Europe at War

[JBS]

It was. 

This was from June 6th: China's new vassal: Vladimir Putin. 

This was from April 6th: Could Putin's great gamble turn Russia into a Chinese vassal state?

This was Paul Krugman tweeting on March 5th:


Of course it is old news.  When Putin responded to Obama's never quite satisfactory Pivot to Asia with Russia's Turn to the East in 2012, that should have been a more widely recognized sign of the shifts in Eurasia.  Everyone will of course now say it was inevitable, well-known, etc.


Maybe.  This does open opportunities for the US, but Indian leaders are not interested in another English-speaking overlord and are pursuing their own alternatives to the dollar.  Negotiating with the next country that will overtake the US in economic size - mid-century in nominal GDP, next decade in PPP GDP - will prove trickier than dealing with European vassal states.

Especially if one has border clashes in the Himalayas with that next country every so often. Wasn't there one earlier this year?

[Todd]

China and India have border clashes with some regularity.  More troubling are the border clashes India has with Pakistan. 

[milk]

It was. 

This was from June 6th: China's new vassal: Vladimir Putin. 

This was from April 6th: Could Putin's great gamble turn Russia into a Chinese vassal state?

This was Paul Krugman tweeting on March 5th:


Of course it is old news.  When Putin responded to Obama's never quite satisfactory Pivot to Asia with Russia's Turn to the East in 2012, that should have been a more widely recognized sign of the shifts in Eurasia.  Everyone will of course now say it was inevitable, well-known, etc.


Maybe.  This does open opportunities for the US, but Indian leaders are not interested in another English-speaking overlord and are pursuing their own alternatives to the dollar.  Negotiating with the next country that will overtake the US in economic size - mid-century in nominal GDP, next decade in PPP GDP - will prove trickier than dealing with European vassal states.

China is big. It's certainly nothing to sneeze at. It also has big problems and it's not invincible. India is its own sort of mess.

[Todd]

China is big. It's certainly nothing to sneeze at. It also has big problems and it's not invincible. India is its own sort of mess.

I'm not even sure what "it's not invincible" really means, nor the statement about India being "its own sort of mess".  All great powers face difficulties, all the time.  The West, broadly speaking, has put itself in a position where it relies on overly financialized economic systems based upon excess debt and increasing exploitation of foreign manufacturing.  It has succumbed to financial crises that have worsened economic inequality in multiple countries, contributed to the reemergence of Western-style nationalism, and the West could only produce a fumbling response to a pandemic.  On top of that, most Western countries face inexorable demographic decline of a sort worse than what China faces.  China can be vincible and India disorderly and still continue to grow economically and militarily and shift the global balance of power - which they have already done, China, in particular.  The slow and steady then faster and more lurching growth of both countries follows paths not dissimilar from other ascending powers of the past.  Some in The West will clearly have a hard time coming to terms with this fact.  Hoping that those people don't really have what it takes will not prove effective.  I have heard and read about how China will not really become a great power for over thirty years. 

In the not too distant future, as in this decade or next, we will see how China manages a global financial crisis it creates.  It may or may not display the same type of policy flexibility that the US has demonstrated (eg, multi-trillion dollar quantitative easing piled on top of traditional expansionary monetary policy).  How India manages its relationship with its nuclear armed, religiously hostile neighbor on its border will help determine its trajectory and how quickly it grows.  The US, of course, still enjoys the strategic luxuries of two vast oceans separating itself from Eurasia and Africa, the primary reserve currency (which will end one day, perhaps in my lifetime), and resources of all types sufficient to help or hinder the rise of both countries, but the US has many challenges of its own to attend to as well.  The American Century is over, and US leaders need to adapt.

[MusicTurner]

An already much delayed television speech by Putin and Shoigu tonight is to be commented on state TV by the extreme nationalist Girkin/Strelkov, his first appearance there. The speech was probably pre-recorded, yet it is now two or three hours delayed.

That Girkin was to comment on it could be suggesting that some initiatives announced in the speech represent a further, militaristic escalation, in line with extreme right-wing criticism. Possibly even mobilization, or a mobilization in parts.

The soon-to-be pseudo-referendums in the invaded areas are also meant to support further threats or escalations, probably.

EDIT: RT has now removed the announcement of the speech ... so it was likely cancelled, or it's a psychological play of threats & it will maybe be played later.

Here's an earlier thread by Greg Yudin about the three general society groups in Russia (extreme right + passive laymen majority + critical voices), and the difficulties of a possible mobilization in relation to them:
https://twitter.com/YudinGreg/status/1570101428542402561

[71 dB]

Just checked the NATO ratification status: Thank you Spain and Portugal! 
🇪🇸 🇵🇹

Three countries left:
- Hungary and Slovakia have started the ratification process.
- Türkeya has not started the ratification process.

[Todd]

Norway is profiting embarrassingly from war in Europe

[LKB]

Putin has signed a decree ordering  mobilization of those with prior military experience. He estimates that this will make around 300,000 veterans available.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-62970683

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Putin has signed a decree ordering  mobilization of those with prior military experience. He estimates that this will make around 300,000 veterans available.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-62970683

Yeah, I heard or read (forget which now) that news yesterday too.     When is he going to just quit?!!

PD

[Karl Henning]

Putin has signed a decree ordering  mobilization of those with prior military experience. He estimates that this will make around 300,000 veterans available.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-62970683

Low-motivation "forces."

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Low-motivation "forces."

I wonder how many of them will refuse to show up for duty?  Or try and go into hiding for awhile?  Perhaps a plus:  they could end up keeping the police and the courts busy? And thereby help to increase opposition to the war?  What do you think Karl...and others?

PD

[Florestan]

Airplane tickets prices have skyrocketed after mobilization was announced. Apparently, the cost of a flight to Dubai is now 5,000 USD and the availability is very scarce. According to the French nespaper Le Monde, airways companies will be prohibited to sell tickets to Russians aged between 18 and 60 without special permit from the Ministry of Defense.

Also, protests occured this evening in  Moscow and will possibly spread across the country in the coming days.

Quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat

[Scion7]

Putin threatens Finland with annihilation after Finnish pres said "Putin underestimated the West" - claims 100 additional missiles targeting Helsinki and Tampere and Turku - " let them eat Cobalt-60," he said according to a Romanian daily I skimmed over ..........

[milk]

I'm not even sure what "it's not invincible" really means, nor the statement about India being "its own sort of mess".  All great powers face difficulties, all the time.  The West, broadly speaking, has put itself in a position where it relies on overly financialized economic systems based upon excess debt and increasing exploitation of foreign manufacturing.  It has succumbed to financial crises that have worsened economic inequality in multiple countries, contributed to the reemergence of Western-style nationalism, and the West could only produce a fumbling response to a pandemic.  On top of that, most Western countries face inexorable demographic decline of a sort worse than what China faces.  China can be vincible and India disorderly and still continue to grow economically and militarily and shift the global balance of power - which they have already done, China, in particular.  The slow and steady then faster and more lurching growth of both countries follows paths not dissimilar from other ascending powers of the past.  Some in The West will clearly have a hard time coming to terms with this fact.  Hoping that those people don't really have what it takes will not prove effective.  I have heard and read about how China will not really become a great power for over thirty years. 

In the not too distant future, as in this decade or next, we will see how China manages a global financial crisis it creates.  It may or may not display the same type of policy flexibility that the US has demonstrated (eg, multi-trillion dollar quantitative easing piled on top of traditional expansionary monetary policy).  How India manages its relationship with its nuclear armed, religiously hostile neighbor on its border will help determine its trajectory and how quickly it grows.  The US, of course, still enjoys the strategic luxuries of two vast oceans separating itself from Eurasia and Africa, the primary reserve currency (which will end one day, perhaps in my lifetime), and resources of all types sufficient to help or hinder the rise of both countries, but the US has many challenges of its own to attend to as well.  The American Century is over, and US leaders need to adapt.

These sound like strong arguments Todd. You seem very well-read on these topics. I only have a little knowledge about this stuff so my views are very tentative. I think it's a big question whether liberalism can adapt to the pressures we're seeing. China has a lot of muscle certainly. You hammer at the flaws of the U.S. and western countries and it's hard to argue that these aren't very serious problems. I wonder what issues you're NOT sure about and what you think might trip up China? These are pretty big questions we're dealing with.
I do worry about Liberal Democracy which I think is still one part of humanity's hope. I see critical theories on the left and jingoism and nationalism on the right to be a rising problem in the States. The left's crazy ideas about immigration shows another untenable lurch toward self-destruction. Maybe you would point to foreign policy adventurism and economic policies as malignant. I haven't been to the U.S. in almost 30 years but it looks crazier and crazier. Japan, where I currently live, seems like another country that's asleep to the pitfalls of it's bad choices.
Anyway, Russia's/Putin's desperation worries me. Is there a way out for him that he can live with? One short of winning or madness?

[Todd]

I wonder what issues you're NOT sure about and what you think might trip up China?

I am sure of nothing.

China, like the US, cannot be defeated in war in the sense that it would not lose territorial integrity or sovereignty.  This condition can change for China (and the US), but it is impossible to see such a change in the next fifty to two hundred years, barring multiple environmental catastrophes far beyond the most dire currently modelled.  (If enough countries allied against either China or the US, and such a high intensity conflict could be prevented from turning nuclear, then it would be theoretically possible for either power to be conquered sooner.  So, in the real world, it is not possible.)  China faces more or less well-known high-level problems.  Inevitable demographic decline; slowing economic growth, with the attendant possibility that China does not escape the middle income trap*; corruption; a form of domestic capitalism so ruthless and without adequate legal safeguards that companies expand outward for survival at least as much as at the behest of the state; and hostile powers opposed to its rise.  These issues will trip up China, but believing that any of them will somehow result in China starting to wither anytime this century is pure wishful thinking.  The world must adapt to a more powerful China.


* The so-called middle income trap requires steadfast belief in western economic theory, and even if China does remain a middle income country, its sheer size will still result in nominal GDP sufficient to marshal national resources sufficient to build a war machine to rival the US, though China is more like Russia in that it can remain a land power with greater regional heft that will still erode US dominance to the point where US dominance no longer exists. 

I do worry about Liberal Democracy which I think is still one part of humanity's hope.

Liberal democracy is the hope of the West, not humanity. 

Without going into it much, US politics is a hot mess (and an entertaining hot mess, at that), but it has been worse and more violent in the past.  The US could destroy itself, but I am not concerned that will happen anytime soon, despite all the Cassandras online and in the press.

Anyway, Russia's/Putin's desperation worries me. Is there a way out for him that he can live with? One short of winning or madness?

A negotiable settlement is still possible, but neither Russia nor the US are publicly willing to back down from their now hardened positions.  You need not look any further than this forum to find people who actually believe in the innocence of the US as it pertains to the Russo-Ukrainian War.  People so sure of that are a massive roadblock to resolving the war without potential further escalation, and certain additional deaths.  Winning for either side has not been defined.  Claims of Putin's madness, without clinical evidence, are exactly as useful and accurate as Hitler analogies.

[Karl Henning]

Opinion Putin is getting desperate. Ukraine and the West must keep the pressure on.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Also, protests occured this evening in  Moscow and will possibly spread across the country in the coming days.

Let it be so!

PD

[drogulus]

     A Russian paper (in exile) is reporting that Putin signed a law calling for a million conscripts.

Novaya Gazeta, an independent Russian newspaper-in-exile, on Thursday quoted an unnamed Kremlin source saying that the target number of one million men is written in Point 7 of Mr Putin's mobilisation order - a part that was redacted from publication.

     More

[Karl Henning]

He [Biden] made the case that Russia's defeat is essential to every other sovereign country. "We chose liberty. We chose sovereignty. ... Each of us in this body who is determined to uphold the principles and beliefs we pledge to defend as members of the United Nations must be clear, firm and unwavering in our resolve." And he reminded the delegates that "Ukraine has the same rights that belong to every sovereign nation. We will stand in solidarity with Ukraine. We will stand in solidarity against Russia's aggression. Period."

[drogulus]

     There's a long line of cars at the Finland-Russia border. Finland is beautiful this time of year.