Europe at War

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Latest post from the US Embassy in Moscow, Russia:

"Security Alert for U.S. Citizens in Russia
U.S. Embassy Moscow, Russia (September 27, 2022)

Event:  On September 21, the Russian government began a mobilization of its citizens to the armed forces in support of its invasion of Ukraine.  Russia may refuse to acknowledge dual nationals'

U.S. citizenship, deny their access to U.S. consular assistance, prevent their departure from Russia, and conscript dual nationals for military service. 

Commercial flight options are extremely limited at present and are often unavailable on short notice.  Overland routes by car and bus are still open.  If you wish to depart Russia, you should make independent arrangements as soon as possible.  The U.S. Embassy has severe limitations on its ability to assist U.S. citizens, and conditions, including transportation options, may suddenly become even more limited.

U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or travelling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain.  The Department of State provides information on commercial travel on the Information for U.S. Citizens in Russia – Travel Options Out of Russia page on travel.state.gov.  This site also provides information on requirements for entering neighboring countries, procedures for travel on expired U.S. passports in some circumstances, and visa requirements for families with American and Russian citizen family members.
We remind U.S. citizens that the right to peaceful assembly and freedom of expression are not guaranteed in Russia.  Avoid all political or social protests and do not photograph security personnel at these events.  Russian authorities have arrested U.S. citizens who have participated in demonstrations."

PD

[Madiel]

But this, on the other hand, is merely an assumption on your part about what you think I 'seem to think'. Don't form opinions about my thoughts unless you've determined what they actually are and the basis on which they are formed, is what I'd say to you.

I have specifically pressed you to explain the basis of your assertion. You have failed to provide any explanation as to how you have ascertained that the people now fleeing Russia were okay with the war previously. Even now, you point to opinion poll numbers that in your own terms have 25% of respondents not in favour of the war, and it doesn't seem to have even occurred to you that the people now fleeing might have been in the 25% rather than the 75%.

You just leapt from 75% of people in a survey saying something (and apparently not giving a moment's consideration as to whether people felt safe saying what they really thought, which is a whole separate issue) to a fallacious conclusion that people now fleeing Russia shared in that 75% opinion. Again: it is the fallacy of the undistributed middle.

[Madiel]

Discounting only yourself, I'm aware of two people who think I said I knew the demographic makeup of those fleeing. But I never said such a thing. I merely asserted based on the rather obvious deduction that 80-year olds on zimmer frames don't need to be fleeing the draft.

I agree on your figures. You are insisting that 3 people all read you incorrectly, and that only you have interpreted your posts correctly.

Ironically, that is the kind of 75-25 per cent split that leads you to conclude in other circumstances that everyone shared the same opinion. But now you are determined to highlight the minority opinion rather than making sweeping claims about what all members of the forum thought.

[Madiel]

I gave you long quotes and plenty of citations which you cannot possibly have had time to read (or watch) in detail and you therefore merely repeat your position without actually considering the substance presented at all.

The first citation I gave you shows very clearly that just 9% (rising to the Everest-like heights of 11%) were "definitely not in favour of the war". The rest were either all in favour of it or a bit 'meh' about it.

And once more, the best you can do is state "it doesn't seem to have occurred to you..."
When you learn the lesson that what things seem like to you doesn't necessarily correspond to reality, then we can have more productive conversations.
In the meantime, I'm done with you.

Oh grow up. Seriously. This is about logical premises. It doesn't matter whether the figure is 25% or 9%. It was you who highlighted the 75% result, not me, but if you want to shift the goalposts to a 91% figure it doesn't make any difference. Until more than 9% of the Russian population has left you still face the same logical problem (and even then it wouldn't be fully resolved).

Currently it seems that you don't even know what an undistributed middle is. It's not "50% of the population". It's the problem with going from "not all Russians supported the war" (whether the percentage not supporting the war is 25% or 9%) to "Russians fleeing at the moment supported the war".

It should be blindingly obvious that the group most likely to be leaving Russia are the people who don't support the war. They are not independent variables. And please note, I am not claiming that everyone now leaving must have been against the war previously. But the ratio of people now leaving that were against the war would be far higher than in the general population. People wholeheartedly in favour of the war have less reason to leave.

[Madiel]

What have you done to oust Putin, anyway? It's all very well putting the obligation on other people. How are you doing your part?

[Karl Henning]

Latest post from the US Embassy in Moscow, Russia:

"Security Alert for U.S. Citizens in Russia
U.S. Embassy Moscow, Russia (September 27, 2022)

Event:  On September 21, the Russian government began a mobilization of its citizens to the armed forces in support of its invasion of Ukraine.  Russia may refuse to acknowledge dual nationals'

U.S. citizenship, deny their access to U.S. consular assistance, prevent their departure from Russia, and conscript dual nationals for military service. 

Commercial flight options are extremely limited at present and are often unavailable on short notice.  Overland routes by car and bus are still open.  If you wish to depart Russia, you should make independent arrangements as soon as possible.  The U.S. Embassy has severe limitations on its ability to assist U.S. citizens, and conditions, including transportation options, may suddenly become even more limited.

U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or travelling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain.  The Department of State provides information on commercial travel on the Information for U.S. Citizens in Russia – Travel Options Out of Russia page on travel.state.gov.  This site also provides information on requirements for entering neighboring countries, procedures for travel on expired U.S. passports in some circumstances, and visa requirements for families with American and Russian citizen family members.
We remind U.S. citizens that the right to peaceful assembly and freedom of expression are not guaranteed in Russia.  Avoid all political or social protests and do not photograph security personnel at these events.  Russian authorities have arrested U.S. citizens who have participated in demonstrations."

PD

For an individual to have dual citizenship, there must be a protocol between the two nations. My understanding (quite likely outdated) was that Russia hadn't coordinated with the US on this. Perhaps by now they have, but Russian bureaucracy being itself, the process would doubtless be onerous to the applicant.

[Todd]

98,000 Russians fled to Kazakhstan amid Putin's mobilization announcement

We know they are wealthy.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

For an individual to have dual citizenship, there must be a protocol between the two nations. My understanding (quite likely outdated) was that Russia hadn't coordinated with the US on this. Perhaps by now they have, but Russian bureaucracy being itself, the process would doubtless be onerous to the applicant.

Karl,

I did find some info here:  https://ru.usembassy.gov/embassy-consulates/st-petersburg/u-s-citizenship-services/dual-nationality/  and this:  https://usimmigrationforms.com/getting-us-and-russian-dual-citizenship/

The US Immigration one was quite interesting!  What is there about 1992?

PD

[Karl Henning]

Karl,

I did find some info here:  https://ru.usembassy.gov/embassy-consulates/st-petersburg/u-s-citizenship-services/dual-nationality/  and this:  https://usimmigrationforms.com/getting-us-and-russian-dual-citizenship/

The US Immigration one was quite interesting!  What is there about 1992?

PD

Interesting, PD, thanks.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Interesting, PD, thanks.

You're welcome!

By the way, I was at the same place as you re word game, but managed to figure it out.  Let me know if you'll like a clue. 

PD

[drogulus]

     There's a pipeline that runs from Denmark to Poland which crosses the Nordstream pipeline almost exactly where the sabotage occurred.

     I guess the message was received.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Not entirely sure that's true. For a long time, Australia didn't accept dual citizenship: if you became Australian, everything else had to be relinquished. Then they relented in the late 1990s. So I can be dual Aussie/British not because there's a British/Oz agreement to that effect, but merely because Oz said, dual is fine.

Hi AB,

I had earlier linked to two websites which talked about Russian/American dual citizenship which you might like to look at (the second one was US Immigration website).  Here they are again:  https://ru.usembassy.gov/embassy-consulates/st-petersburg/u-s-citizenship-services/dual-nationality/  and https://usimmigrationforms.com/getting-us-and-russian-dual-citizenship/
Best,

PD

[Karl Henning]

You're welcome!

By the way, I was at the same place as you re word game, but managed to figure it out.  Let me know if you'll like a clue. 

PD

Cheers! got it at last!

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Cheers! got it at last!

Probably the only composer that I've heard of so far playing that puzzle. 

Was tempting to add perhaps something like:  "Just take a deep breath..." or maybe "I'm feeling light as a feather today"??    Probably bad clues! lol

PD

[drogulus]

     A number of Russian citizen correspondents have left. Natasha from the far East left a few days ago. Niki from St. Petersburg just left. He's in Istanbul. Natasha fled to Tbilisi.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

     A number of Russian citizen correspondents have left. Natasha from the far East left a few days ago. Niki from St. Petersburg just left. He's in Istanbul. Natasha fled to Tbilisi.

Would you please possibly add more information to your posts as I can't always follow you well.  Like here, first and last names and who they have been writing for or who has uploaded or published their articles/comments or is it all via things like Facebook/Twitter?  I'd like to read them and understand more about their background and what they are going through.  Thanks.

PD

[Madiel]

Not entirely sure that's true. For a long time, Australia didn't accept dual citizenship: if you became Australian, everything else had to be relinquished. Then they relented in the late 1990s. So I can be dual Aussie/British not because there's a British/Oz agreement to that effect, but merely because Oz said, dual is fine.

Russian law is different.

[drogulus]

Would you please possibly add more information to your posts as I can't always follow you well.  Like here, first and last names and who they have been writing for or who has uploaded or published their articles/comments or is it all via things like Facebook/Twitter?  I'd like to read them and understand more about their background and what they are going through.  Thanks.

PD

     These are YouTubers I have followed since before the war. They are pretty well known as Russian vloggers go. They went.

     https://www.youtube.com/v/VfDV9E79y_U

     https://www.youtube.com/v/vQUXH-uLzdA

[Karl Henning]

Mayhem at Russian Border as Thousands Flee Putin's Draft

[drogulus]

     The first Russian mobilized soldier has surrendered due to non-battle fatigue.