Europe at War

[Karl Henning]

Fox News: America's Anti-America Network

Fox News: Putin Propaganda Primetime

[Florestan]

Fox News: America's Anti-America Network

Fox News: Putin Propaganda Primetime

The whole article is worthwhile but this particular snippet

This depiction of military conflict—if you resist the aggressor, you're for "war," but if you reward him by capitulating, you're for "peace"—used to be associated with the left. Now it's spreading on the right

certainly rings a sonorous bell here on GMG. 

[Todd]

Russia's trajectory of hate: A big war against the West coming

The highlight of the op-ed is inclusion of the word Götterdämmerung.  The Nazi references are pretty good, too.

[Todd]

CNBC last week: The U.S. and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine

The Gray Lady today: U.S. Aims to Turn Taiwan Into Giant Weapons Depot

YTD stock performance for top five US arms manufacturers:

Northrup Grumman: 26.5%
Lockheed Martin: 14.3%
General Dynamics: 9.8%
Raytheon: (1.79%)
Boeing: (36.1%)

Fiscal year 2024 appropriations need to boost defense spending.  Hopefully the Pentagon and Congress can do something to really help Boeing, sheesh.

[milk]

well, those untrained people with guns are shipped fast to Ukraine. They can't get even near the government HQ.

any removal of Putin will have to come from within the elite, and they will have to be able to reach across a very long desk.

or just lock the door to that white and gold hall and throw away the keys.

Of course, but if they kill two superiors, and they kill two superiors, and so on and so on...I'm just wondering how smart it is to arm a bunch of people like that. I'm not saying that they'll join hands and march the other way. But I can imagine things collapsing faster than now.
But what happens if Putin does, cough, choke on his Cheerios?

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Russian recruits being forced to spend huge amounts of money buying their own equipment and supplies and living in "animal conditions".  From The Moscow Times

"Recently mobilized Russian soldiers are decrying "inhumane" conditions, weapons shortages and mistreatment by officers, according to video published by the independent news website The Insider on Wednesday.

Footage of new recruits sleeping on the floor, being armed with outdated rifles and ordered to source their own supplies appeared almost immediately after President Vladimir Putin announced a "partial" mobilization last month.

Around 500 troops gathered in western Russia's Belgorod region near the Ukrainian border with no training and no knowledge of where they were being deployed, the latest video's authors said.

"Nobody needs us," a voice behind the camera, flanked by uniformed soldiers on a train platform, can be heard saying.

"We've lived in animal conditions for a week," the voice said, adding that the soldiers had received no material support or financial compensation since being called up.

"We've spent an absurd amount of money just to feed ourselves, not to mention on ammunition."

The Insider reported earlier that the soldiers' wives were forced to spend as much as $2,500 on equipping their husbands. A website set up to answer questions on mobilization states that requiring soldiers to buy their own equipment is illegal. The same website encourages soldiers to bring their own night vision goggles and drones to the battlefield.

It was not clear where the mobilized soldiers depicted in the video were ultimately deployed.

Western military analysts predict that the Kremlin's rush to deploy new recruits to the frontlines would result in high death rates, troop unreliability and low morale.

Several recruits were reported to have died before deployment."

And ethnic minorities being inordinately conscripted (same source):

"Just hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilization for the war in Ukraine last week, a family in Russia's majority-Buddhist republic of Kalmykia gathered to decide how to protect its four draft-eligible men.

"We thought my uncle would be drafted first and decided he would go to Kazakhstan... He left the next day," the youngest man in the family from Kalmykia's capital Elista told The Moscow Times.

Assured that his family was relatively safe, the man — a local activist who requested anonymity to speak freely — started helping conscription-age men to avoid "becoming cannon fodder" by fleeing abroad. But then his father received draft papers.

"I wasn't able to convince my father to leave... I am going to the draft office tomorrow to bid farewell," the activist wrote on social media Thursday.

"He is 47. He avoided the Chechen war, but not this one."

Evidence from regional activists who spoke to The Moscow Times suggests that, almost a week into Russia's mobilization drive, a disproportionate amount of the men being drafted come from Russia's ethnic minorities.

Many of the ethnic republics that appear to have seen large numbers of men receiving draft papers  — including the North Caucasus republic of Dagestan and Siberian republic of Buryatia — have already suffered heavy losses in the war in Ukraine.

"In Elista, they are planning to take 332 people, which is quite a lot for a city with a population of no more than 150,000," local Kalmyk activist Daavr Dordzhin told The Moscow Times.

In the Siberian republic of Buryatia, one of Russia's poorest regions, thousands of men — including recently discharged soldiers and those who initially refused to be sent to Ukraine — have apparently received call-up papers.

"All the young men we were able to save and bring back home are now being invited to go back into that meat grinder," said Alexandra Garmazhapova, co-founder of the anti-war Free Buryatia Foundation that helps conscientious objectors.


               The governor of Buryatia, Aleksei Tsydenov.                               Pavel Volkov / Roscongress Photobank            
The governor of Buryatia, Aleksei Tsydenov.Pavel Volkov / Roscongress Photobank
There are no official figures for the numbers of men mobilized in each Russian region, and The Moscow Times was unable to confirm numbers given by activists.

In Bashkortostan, an oil-rich Muslim-majority republic in central Russia, fathers of four and men over 40 years old are among those to have received draft papers, according to Bashkir opposition activist Ruslan Gabbasov

"I don't know the exact numbers of people drafted, but they are sending out draft papers left, right and center," he told The Moscow Times.

And in Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014, the peninsula's indigenous Crimean Tatars have apparently been hit particularly hard.

"Eighty percent of the draft papers for mobilization in Crimea were sent out to Crimean Tatars (Crimean Tatars make up less than 20% of the population of Crimea)," journalist and activist Osman Pashaev wrote in a post on Facebook last week.

Many activists have suggested mobilizing more men from ethnic minorities far from Moscow and St. Petersburg is a way for the Kremlin to reduce the draft's impact on major cities, where the chances of opposition protests are higher.

But many of these regions — which are generally poorer and more fertile recruiting grounds for the Russian army that can provide a stable salary and act as a social lift — also have a higher-than-average number of military veterans.

"A mobilization that focuses on recent veterans will... disproportionately affect regions where there are more military units," military analyst Rob Lee tweeted last week.

Perhaps because of the outsize impact of the draft on their communities, ethnic minorities have played a prominent role in anti-mobilization protests  — often led by women — in recent days, with videos emerging of demonstrators blocking roads, scuffling with police and calling for peace. 


               A military enlistment office in Russia.                               Dmitry Lebedev / Kommersant            
A military enlistment office in Russia.Dmitry Lebedev / Kommersant
The ethnic republics of Dagestan, Kabardino-Balkaria and the Arctic republic of Sakha all saw significant protests over the weekend.

Demonstrators in Yakutsk, the capital of mineral-rich Sakha, organized traditional dances at a protest Saturday and were seen chanting "No to war!" and "No to genocide!" — a reference to the fact that mobilizing men from small ethnic minority communities will likely cause their population numbers to plummet.

And in Dagestan, protesters in the town of Khasavyurt blocked a key highway Sunday. Police fired in the air in an attempt to despers the rallies, according to videos from the scene.

Over 10 times more people were detained at anti-mobilization protests Sunday in Dagestan's Makhachkala than in Moscow, according to protest monitoring group OVD-Info.

Like in most Russian regions, the mobilization drive in ethnic republics appears to be particularly intense in poorer, rural areas, activists said.

In the Caucasus republic of North Ossetia, "draft papers are distributed mostly in villages," one local activist who requested anonymity told The Moscow Times.

And a similar tactic is used in Bashkortostan.

"They are taking ordinary boys from the districts and villages," one eyewitness from Bashkortostan said in a message sent to the Free Buryatia Foundation that the group subsequently shared online.

Many activists blamed regional leaders keen to impress the Kremlin for the speed of mobilization in areas with large ethnic minority communities.

"The over-eagerness of the head of Buryatia, Aleksei Tsydenov, plays an important role," activist Garmazhapova told The Moscow Times.

"If Vladimir Putin told him to do a pole dance, he would do it. And just as easily he will send young men from Buryatia to war... He doesn't see them as people, he sees them as a means to achieve his [political] goals," she said. "

PD

[Todd]

Reuters reporting on Gray Lady reporting: U.S. believes Ukraine was behind killing of Dugina in Russia, NYT says

Thankfully, "[t]he United States took no part in the attack on Dugina and was not aware of it ahead of time[.]"

[drogulus]

     Russia is not running out of weapons to gift to Ukraine, though there is a problem with the lower quality of more recent gifts. Well, at least the Ukes know how to use the stuff better than the Russians.

     A birb told me the LMT plant is producing more HIMARs to send to Ukraine. The way it's put is "replenish the stocks".

     Camden, Arkansas is where Lockheed Martin has their production facilities for HIMARS and GMLRS systems.

[Que]

Reuters reporting on Gray Lady reporting: U.S. believes Ukraine was behind killing of Dugina in Russia, NYT says

Thankfully, "[t]he United States took no part in the attack on Dugina and was not aware of it ahead of time[.]"

A huge blunder on the part of the Ukrainians... Some reports suggest a lack of central control in the decision making process within Ukrainian intelligence and the US flagging this incident as a warning.

[drogulus]

A huge blunder on the part of the Ukrainians... Some reports suggest a lack of central control in the decision making process within Ukrainian intelligence and the US flagging this incident as a warning.

     Reuters says:

Mykhailo Podolyak, a Ukrainian presidential adviser, told Reuters on Thursday that "objectively speaking" Dugina had been of no interest to Kyiv before she was killed.

"Before Dugina's murder, the people of Ukraine and representatives of the Ukrainian authorities did not know about her public activities and her influence on propaganda programmes," he wrote on WhatsApp in response to a Reuters request for comment.

"In our opinion, the key beneficiary of Dugina's murder was certain Russian radical supporters of the war (in Ukraine). Including a section of the (Russian) special services."

The New York Times said some U.S. officials suspected that Dugina's father, a vocal supporter of what Russia calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine, had been the actual target of the assassination.

     I don't find the Uke denial convincing. It's worded like a non-denial denial, as though not targeting Dugina means no one was targeted. If they wanted to say they didn't do what was done it would be in their interest to say so plainly.

[Todd]

Biden: Nuclear 'Armageddon' risk highest since '62 crisis

This is literally something Biden can personally control. 

Perhaps the GMG warmongers can rationalize.

[LKB]

Biden: Nuclear 'Armageddon' risk highest since '62 crisis

This is literally something Biden can personally control. 

Perhaps the GMG warmongers can rationalize.

How productive.

[Madiel]

Biden: Nuclear 'Armageddon' risk highest since '62 crisis

This is literally something Biden can personally control. 

Perhaps the GMG warmongers can rationalize.

Yes, well, figments of your imagination can do anything you want, Todd, and yet nothing at all.

[Todd]

It's clear that OPEC+ is aligning with Russia with today's announcement

What happened?

Biden bent a knee to MBS. And got stabbed in the back.

Good to see the "stab in the back myth" make a comeback.  (Mr Parsi works for the Koch-Soros funded Quincy Institute - you read that right, Koch-Soros funded - so the rhetorical selection was obviously purposeful.) 

Not the hoped-for October surprise.

Russia!

[Florestan]

A huge blunder on the part of the Ukrainians... Some reports suggest a lack of central control in the decision making process within Ukrainian intelligence and the US flagging this incident as a warning.

The assassination of Daria Dugina makes no sense at all. Most probably they targeted her father but something went wrong intelligence-wise, they were unaware Alexander Dugin changed the car in the last moment.

In other news, an official from the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that they are committed to, and engaged in, negotiations for avoiding a nuclear conflict, thus contradicting Putin's narrative.

[drogulus]

     Unless Putin wants to strengthen arms control agreements I don't see the point of bilateral negotiations.

     Threat threatening is a public pressure gambit. It strikes me as very unlikely that US policy types are confused by it.

     I suppose the US could string the Russians along until they are evicted from Ukraine in 2023. What's the carrot? What can we give them that they want?

In other news, an official from the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that they are committed to, and engaged in, negotiations for avoiding a nuclear conflict, thus contradicting Putin's narrative.

     It's not the same target audience. Threat threatening is not how diplomats talk to each other when they're trying to get work done.

     

[drogulus]

     

Possibly Crimea, and a guaranteed water supply to it.

I'm not keen on giving anything to Putin that he has sought to take by force, but Crimea was not Ukraine's until Krushchev made it so in 1954, so I think if agreeing to his possession of it meant he sodded off out of the rest of Ukraine, maybe he'd trade? Not sure Ukraine would, of course, but maybe...

The condition in return would have to be Ukraine becomes a NATO member, because Russia guaranteeing its sovereignty (again!) is clearly a non-starter.

And that means I don't think that deal would fly after all, leaving your question fundamentally unanswered... which is a worry.

     The legal framework is the 1997 agreement guaranteeing Ukrainian sovereignty, ratified by Ukraine in 1998. I don't think the US can negotiate this away over the objection of Ukraine.

     The problem is Russia can't win the war by force of arms. It should be clear that escalation wouldn't favor Russia, either. A devastating response using conventional weapons would be the outcome. At least that would give Russia a very good reason to negotiate. As long as Russia doesn't invade Europe it can continue its miserable existence, and we might even sweeten the pot a little by agreeing to the resumption of economic cooperation that's good for them and for others, too.

     Implicit in the deal is Putin goes. I expect we wouldn't even have to say it, since Russians understand perfectly and almost certainly prefer it that way. The hardliners don't want him, the fence-sitters know he's an obstacle, the wealthy want a deal, any deal that helps them. I don't suppose the brain drainers have much pull. The technocrats view them as essential, though. It's not so good for Russia to become the Stupidest Formerly Advanced Country ever.

[Karl Henning]

Possibly Crimea, and a guaranteed water supply to it.

I'm not keen on giving anything to Putin that he has sought to take by force, but Crimea was not Ukraine's until Krushchev made it so in 1954, so I think if agreeing to his possession of it meant he sodded off out of the rest of Ukraine, maybe he'd trade? Not sure Ukraine would, of course, but maybe...

The condition in return would have to be Ukraine becomes a NATO member, because Russia guaranteeing its sovereignty (again!) is clearly a non-starter.

And that means I don't think that deal would fly after all, leaving your question fundamentally unanswered... which is a worry.
Maybe we could promise never to station nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil, à la Cuba?

While I take your historical bsckground point: Now that Russia is revealed as a mortal enemy, Ukraine should keep the Crimea, not so much for itself (though it is a nice vacation destination) but so that it is not a Russian toehold.

[Florestan]

Crimea was not Ukraine's until Krushchev made it so in 1954

North Bukovina, Hertsa County, Cahul County, Bolgrad County, Ismail County were not Ukraine's until Stalin made them so in 1940. They were historically Romanian territories. 

I've said it before, I say it again: contemporary Ukraine's territory is an artificial patchwork comprising territories which historically belonged to Romania, Hungary, Poland and Russia --- yet I'd willingly have, and do support the territorial integrity of, this artificial Ukraine as a buffer state between Romania and Russia rather than having common border with Russia.

Plus, with respect to the Republic of Moldova: if tomorrow a referendum were held about their being reunited with Romania I'd vote against, for the simple reason that making Romanian citizens out of tens of thousands of Russians living in RoM today means inviting Putin to meddle into Romania's affairs under the pretext of protecting the Russian-speaking minority. Thanks but no thanks.

[Karl Henning]

North Bukovina, Hertsa County, Cahul County, Bolgrad County, Ismail County were not Ukraine's until Stalin made them so in 1940. They were historically Romanian territories. 

I've said it before, I say it again: contemporary Ukraine's territory is an artificial patchwork comprising territories which historically belonged to Romania, Hungary, Poland and Russia --- yet I'd willingly have, and do support the territorial integrity of, this artificial Ukraine as a buffer state between Romania and Russia rather than having common border with Russia.

Plus, with respect to the Republic of Moldova: if tomorrow a referendum were held about their being reunited with Romania I'd vote against, for the simple reason that making Romanian citizens out of tens of thousands of Russians living in RoM today means inviting Putin to meddle into Romania's affairs under the pretext of protecting the Russian-speaking minority. Thanks but no thanks.

No kidding!