Europe at War

[drogulus]

     India is doing a thing. Indian banks are not going to expose themselves to secondary sanctions early next year, so they won't participate in the rupee/ruble exchange system for oil purchases Russia wants. They want to keep their dollar/Euro business going unhindered, which is vastly more important. Russia is in a weak position, selling oil at a discount not for profit but to keep their production facilities working. They don't have enough storage to sit on the oil, so they might have to shut down at the well head, and that would be a disaster.

     The international ruble trade is sparse and no one wants a currency that fluctuates too much. Contracts are for dollars/Euros/yen for a reason. It's not because they are reserve currencies, it's because a stable and liquid currency from a big buyer of the worlds output is what it means for a currency to be reserve. China and Russia have weak internal markets. They sustain themselves by hiring themselves out to the strong buyers of the world. Countries or regions that generate a high proportion of their wealth by internal trade can withstand shocks that exporters can't.

     At some point the US will push Ukraine to negotiate. It depends on how far the Ukes can go over the winter. It's certain they will be better equipped for a winter war than the Russians. OTOH a counteroffensive in winter conditions will be difficult and that would tilt in favor of a hunkered down Russian line.

[Karl Henning]

4 Dead After Russian Military Jet Crashes Into Own Citizens

[71 dB]

     If you want to stay on good terms with your new friends, don't invade Russia.

I don't understand what you mean. Nobody is invading Russia to my knowledge.

[Todd]

Ukraine says 30% of its power plants destroyed in last eight days

Zelenskiy says attacks on civilian infrastructure leave no space for negotiations with Putin regime

[drogulus]

I don't understand what you mean. Nobody is invading Russia to my knowledge.

     I'm pretty sure you're right.

[Todd]

The Nord Stream pipelines don't get front page or lead story coverage in the US anymore, but some stories have been published.  First, whodunnit?

Sweden won't share Nord Stream investigation findings with Russia - PM

Sweden shuns formal joint investigation of Nord Stream leak, citing national security

Obviously, it was Russia.  I mean, come on.  The next story proves it beyond a reasonable doubt:


Putin offers Europe gas through Nord Stream 2

The Russian leader offered to resume gas supplies through parts of the pipelines that weren't damaged by explosions last month. He also suggested an alternative through Turkey.

[drogulus]

     It's all quiet on the southern front......too quiet.

     So now it looks like Russia wants to talk. I think it's like "Mo-om, make him stop hitting me!".

     The US is not ready to bail Russia out. In time, it will.

[Todd]

McCarthy Warns GOP May Cut Back Ukraine Aid If Party Wins House

Elections have consequences. 

[Todd]

Politico, in its EU version (https://www.politico.eu/), has named Pootie Poot #1 on the Green 28 list for 2023.   

Class of 2023.

Rationalize that.

[Todd]

Russia tightens Ukraine energy squeeze; launches evacuation

The adventures of Vlad the Environmentalist.

[LKB]

McCarthy Warns GOP May Cut Back Ukraine Aid If Party Wins House

Elections have consequences.

Hardly a shocker, and there's no " may " about it.

McCarthy is ( afaict ) still sucking Trump's c**k, and Trump is still Putin's bitch.

[Todd]

Hardly a shocker, and there's no " may " about it.

McCarthy is ( afaict ) still sucking Trump's c**k, and Trump is still Putin's bitch.

GMG is home to the most sophisticated analysis on the internet.

[Karl Henning]

Elections have consequences.

Look at that. Even Todd can get it right, if the res is plain enough.

[Todd]

Rolling blackouts start in Kyiv as Ukrainians urged to save power

Some long-term forecasts predict that the Ukrainian winter may not be especially cold.  That should make it easier for regular Ukrainian people to tough it out.  I mean, except for the elderly, the sick, and children.  But whatever, no negotiations.

[drogulus]

     

Hardly a shocker, and there's no " may " about it.

     In the US support for Ukraine is high and includes taxpayers. If McCarthy becomes Speaker he'll face pushback from his own caucus. Biden will get the aid he wants. A more interesting question is what that will be. I can see circumstances where US asserts greater leverage over Ukraine to get them to settle for less than a whole loaf. The US prefers an intact Russia.

[Todd]

Ukraine is Terrified About What Will Happen if Republicans Win the Midterms

Oh noes!

Maybe European countries could do their part to defend Europe.

jk - everyone knows that ain't gonna happen.

[drogulus]

     I think Ukraine doesn't want a return of the TrumPutinists and associates Repubs with that sect. Note that McCarthy mentioned "blank check", so he's got plenty of wiggle room, which I think he'll need.

     Repubs have been fairly quiet because they don't have a separate position on Ukraine in substance. If Biden cuts aid they'll complain, and we see that as aid package after aid package is sent you hear not a peep about taxpayers. I have heard about the 976th attempt to cut Social Security in a nice way, which is oddly reassuring.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

This concerns me.  I don't regularly follow Italian politics, so what can you all add?  This is from the BBC:

"Italy's far-right leader Giorgia Meloni has formally accepted the job of forming the next government at the head of the country's most right-wing administration since World War Two.
She was greeted by President Sergio Mattarella, less than a month after her Brothers of Italy party won elections.
Ms Meloni and her allies saw him earlier, and declared they were ready to govern "as quickly as possible".
Italy's first female PM and her cabinet will be sworn in on Saturday.
She takes over from a very different leader in Mario Draghi who was brought in to run a country struggling to emerge from the effects of coronavirus and economic crisis.
Nato member Italy is the EU's third biggest economy and Ms Meloni has sought to assure its Western allies that nothing will change in its foreign policy.

She made the short trip to the presidential palace in a white Fiat 500 car, before a private meeting with the president that lasted well over an hour. She then announced who would be in her cabinet.
Her government will include Matteo Salvini's far-right League and the right-of-centre Forza Italia of Silvio Berlusconi - the 86-year-old former prime minister who for days has been at the centre of a row surrounding two leaked recordings that underlined his pro-Putin views and shook the coalition."

PD

[Todd]

Inflation protests across Europe threaten political turmoil

Maybe flaring tempers can affordably warm the masses this winter.

[Todd]

U.S. liberal Democrats urge Biden to seek negotiated Ukraine settlement