Europe at War

[JBS]

That is commendable. 


What would that be?

Russia will go down a notch or two because of the financial stability factor (if nothing else), and China will go up. Given that China is actively working to improve its armed forces, it would probably have gotten ahead of Russia even if there was no war--the stated difference there for 1/22 was .001. [A tenth of a percent of what? Warmongerers?]

[pjme]

Amitiés, Pierre! 

Salut Andrei,
cele mai bune salutări din Olanda unde locuiesc acum. Mă gândesc acum la Dunăre și la pelikanii de pe lacul Fortuna...
și de a lua masa cu tine în București.
Toate cele bune!

Și să ne rugăm pentru o lume mai pașnică.

Petru

(I hope Google translate didn't mess up.)

[Florestan]

Salut Andrei,
cele mai bune salutări din Olanda unde locuiesc acum. Mă gândesc acum la Dunăre și la pelikanii de pe lacul Fortuna...
și de a lua masa cu tine în București.
Toate cele bune!

Și să ne rugăm pentru o lume mai pașnică.

Petru

(I hope Google translate didn't mess up.)

I'm actually surprised by how good, though not perfect, the transation is. Usually, it indeed messes up. 

Thank you. Best wishes and kind regards to you as well.

[Todd]

Russia will go down a notch or two because of the financial stability factor (if nothing else), and China will go up.

Perhaps China becomes more powerful in relative terms.  I suspect it was in January of this year.  I doubt Russia will be a lesser power than India next year, but maybe.  Russia's immense nuclear arsenal does impart significant power and does act as a limit to action by other countries.  This may very well be the basis for the belief that if Russia is not stopped now in Ukraine, despite its exceedingly well publicized failures in the field, it will steamroll Europe and rule the continent in short order.  Some people actually believe that nonsense.

But I must confess, after reading that very scary assessment by the Heritage Foundation, giving the US military its first ever "weak" rating, that the US could cede the top slot to China and run the risk of being conquered before the end of the decade.  The peril is real.

[Madiel]

I have no basis for thinking Todd is a nice person to interact with in real life. I cannot think of a bigger wanker. Which is quite a different quality to "abrasive".

[Karl Henning]

He's proud to set expectations low, too.

[Karl Henning]

Russians Accuse Ukraine of Nazism—But Look at How Russian Propagandists Talk

[drogulus]

     Nuclear weapons are good at deterring the use of nuclear weapons by an adversary state. Their role in conventional warfare is not easy to figure.

     These weapons require a doctrine that's largely transparent. The scenario in Doctor Strangelove illustrates the problem nicely. One can only conclude that the doctrine itself must be clearly understood by opponents as part of the effectiveness of the strategy. The other essential part is a counterstrike ability which makes a first strike out of the question.

     Russia does have an unstated premise in their calculations, but we know about it. It's that Russian nukes are not expected to work well. They will miss the silos, or not detonate, or get shot down. That doesn't reduce their deterrence value, though, and that's the critical task.

[Florestan]

Russians Accuse Ukraine of Nazism—But Look at How Russian Propagandists Talk

But you know, the real warmongers are on GMG, not on RT. 

[Karl Henning]

But you know, the real warmongers are on GMG, not on RT. 

So all the best sources say!

[drogulus]

     S. Korea is supplying tanks and self propelled artillery to Poland. It's a huge deal for hundreds of sexy machines.

[Todd]

But you know, the real warmongers are on GMG, not on RT. 

Your sentence should read: But you know, some of the real warmongers are on GMG, as well as on RT, NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN, and many other corporate press outlets.

I'm here to help.

[drogulus]

     Natural gas prices are dropping and European gas storage is at 90%+ capacity. I think these must be related.

     Nuclear threat threatening is seen for what it is, energy blackmail isn't working, destroying infrastructure and killing civilians didn't work in Hamburg and Tokyo and I haven't seen anything to persuade me that Ukrainian people are about to decide they are Russians after all and freely provide their washing machines and microwave ovens to their brothers.

     I don't think winter will change the course of the war except to slow down the Ukrainian advance. The Ukes will probably never have an army big enough for a counteroffensive on all fronts. What they do is use their superior intelligence to locate weak spots and attack there, forcing the Russians to pull back adjacent units to restore a defensible line and avoid encirclement. Winter means the process slows down, unless the poorly equipped Russians decide it's not so good to fight warmly clothed troops with night vision goggles while freezing in the dark.

[Todd]

Russia says it will suspend UN-brokered Ukraine export deal

[Scion7]

At the end of all of this,
will come about the creation of the Great Anglo-Hungarian Empire,
which will incorporate great swaths of continental Europe, including Transylvania.

I will crown myself when the time comes ... oh, yesssssss  ....

[Pohjolas Daughter]

I found this story to be encouraging:  https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/29/europe/russian-army-ukraine-blake-cec/index.html

PD

[Que]

     I don't think winter will change the course of the war except to slow down the Ukrainian advance. [...] Winter means the process slows down, unless the poorly equipped Russians decide it's not so good to fight warmly clothed troops with night vision goggles while freezing in the dark.

It seems that once the wet season passes and the mud freezes over, a well fed and equipped army wil have an important advantage. Severall European allies but notably Estonia, Lithuania and Germany have provided Ukraine with modern winter uniforms.

[Que]

Russia says it will suspend UN-brokered Ukraine export deal

That will make Putin more friends in Africa and the Middle East.

[Todd]

That will make Putin more friends in Africa and the Middle East.

It actually might.  Press reports from non-Eurocentric outlets tend to be far more skeptical of US and European motives and actions during this war.  Rightly.  Russia is not the international pariah portrayed in the western corporate press.  The Russian government will likely work with governments in a variety of countries to craft the appropriate narrative.  Precisely like how the US government works with governments in a variety of countries to craft the appropriate narrative.  Information warfare/propaganda is a critical component of this war.

From Cambridge: War in Ukraine widens global divide in public attitudes toward US, China and Russia: Report

[Todd]

Russia's take on who done blew up them pipelines: Russia says UK navy blew up Nord Stream, London denies involvement

I like this bit of the British response: "To detract from their disastrous handling of the illegal invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Defence is resorting to peddling false claims of an epic scale"