Europe at War

[Madiel]

     I don't get why this is so hard to understand. The US wants to avoid Russian disintegration, and is entirely aware that Russia will change for the worse in the majority of the scenarios that are most likely. Russian history is one disaster after another, and disasters change their regimes. The US is trying to prevent Russian and Chinese disasters from spilling over into other countries.

     The 101st Airborne is in Poland. Russia is interested in talks. Kherson is liberated. None of this says Russia will change regimes or that they won't.

Where does this talk of a Chinese disaster come from?

[Florestan]

On the basis of no knowledge whatsoever, but with a deep appreciation of history, I think you might be wrong. There was not, and did not appear to be plausible for several decades in 1945, a liberal democrat in the mere vicinity of Germany. They made do, and it worked out OK in the end.

In 1945 Germany was militarily defeated, occupied and partitioned and its top political and military elite was subsequently hanged or imprisoned. There is absolutely no analogy for, or comparison to, 2022 Russia.

[Florestan]

Old age eventually if nothing else...

Why, of course, but talks about his removal usually imply forced removal while he's still alive.

[Que]

How and by whom could Putin be removed?

He won't, I think. But although the reports of Putin's imminent death were false, it does seem that he has some serious health issues - probably some form of cancer. He might die in a couple of years... He is now 70 years old anyway.

Before that moment a ceasefire a some point and a frozen conflict thereafter, seems a plausible scenario. Provided that the Russian forces continue to resist the Ukrainian offensive and are able to create a stalemate instead of collapsing altogether...The Ukrainians are aiming and hoping for the latter scenario which at this point cannot be ruled out.

After a possible ceasfire Ukraine will be rebuilt and join the EU or at least the internal market.
Meanwhile Western sanctions remain in place and the political and economic situation in Russia will contine to worsen.
Recapturing Kherson was essential for Ukraine's economic future and I think Ukraine keep fighting at least until the conditions for future economic development are met, like regaining sufficient access to the Black Sea.

Anyway, my two cents...  For now the functioning and capabilities of the Russian troops seem to deteriorate by the month, and the coming winter might accelerate that decline. I think the Ukrainians will launch another offensive this winter with their new tanks once the mud freezes over. Finland fought and defeated Russia in mid winter, why couldn't the Ukrainians do the same?

[Christo]

Perhaps the people on this forum who support regime change can provide a successful example of regime change from the post-war period. 

What about Germany, Japan, all of the post-colonial regimes led by India, South-Africa, Argentina, Greece, many post-Soviet states headed by the Baltic countries?

[Madiel]

Regime change does work sometimes, but externally forced regime change doesn't work very often.

[Florestan]

I disagree.

You can't disagree with facts. You can only choose to ignore them.

[Todd]

What about Germany, Japan, all of the post-colonial regimes led by India, South-Africa, Argentina, Greece, many post-Soviet states headed by the Baltic countries?

What about them? 

The fact is, Russia is now militarily defeated

Can you define "defeated"?

[Florestan]

What about Germany,

Militarily defeated, occupied and partitioned.

Japan

Nuked twice.

all of the post-colonial regimes led by India, South-Africa, Argentina, Greece, many post-Soviet states headed by the Baltic countries?

All very good examples of regime change from within.

[Florestan]

Regime change does work sometimes, but externally forced regime change doesn't work very often.

This. Regime change from within, okay and stable. Regime change from without, problematic and unstable.

[Todd]

I have never before seen Argentina held up as a successful example of anything.  If one surfs the net long enough, I guess it is inevitable.

[Todd]

probably some form of cancer.

How did you determine this?

He might die in a couple of years... He is now 70 years old anyway.

It might be a couple of years, it might be a decade, it might be longer.

As to Ukraine being rebuilt, how long will that take, who will foot the enormous bill (ie, >€1 trillion), and how will the rampant corruption in Ukraine be controlled?

[drogulus]

Where does this talk of a Chinese disaster come from?

     I can understand dismay about the China collapse story. Some people think peak China is in the future, others think it's in the recent past. One factor is that China is missing at least 100 million people. The population decline started earlier than many expected. Other factors are the rising labor costs and the ineffectiveness of the Chinese Covid vaccine which has repeatedly closed factories and depressed domestic demand, and the real estate collapse leading to the banking collapse. Foreign businesses are leaving. Wealthy Chinese are escaping while it's still possible to leave.

     You might be more aware of how bad the situation is if you owned Chinese stocks. I don't, but since I follows all kinds of economic news I have a view of what's going on.

     

     

     

[Todd]

History will declare one or other of us the winner.

One of the more bizarre things ever written on GMG. 

[Harry]

One of the more bizarre things ever written on GMG.

The only bizarre thing on GMG are you!

[Todd]

The only bizarre thing on GMG are you!

Great conjugation.

Quite why you have a disagreement with the proposition that, in the fullness of time, the turn out of events will establish which of the persons advocating for position X or Y was more right, I cannot fathom.

Your insistence that WWII is somehow analogous to, and offers valuable insight into, the current Russo-Ukrainian War demonstrates that people do not even agree on history and historical fact. 

[Todd]

Quite correct. I type badly at times. Full marks.

You are Harry?

I look for analogies, only because I have nothing else to look to.

Another bizarre statement.  One can look to current facts reported by reputable sources and then assess history and arrive at a synthesis of the two.  History is useful, of course, but one must choose meaningful analogies and then not double down on improper ones, as you did with WWII. 

[SimonNZ]

People, please: consider what a tough week this has been for poor Todd. All the gloating he had set to post, all the memes that say Democrats Tears, all the performative impeachments to look forward to, all the deliciously entertaining crazy let loose, all the god-like certainty he had put into his previous posts. And now it's all been cruelly taken away.

[prémont]

People, please: consider what a tough week this has been for poor Todd. All the gloating he had set to post, all the memes that say Democrats Tears, all the performative impeachments to look forward to, all the deliciously entertaining crazy let loose, all the god-like certainty he had put into his previous posts. And now it's all been cruelly taken away.

Oh yeah beware, we just run the risk of him leaving the forum out of sheer frustration.

[Madiel]

We are going through one of those weird periods where I don't think Todd is the person with the most bizarre utterances in the thread...