Meltdown

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BachQ

Wall Street Journal
Tracking Saudi Oil From Space
Satellites Check
Big Field's Health;
Jitters Over Supply
By NEIL KING JR.
May 6, 2008; Page A15

At a time of high anxiety over soaring fuel prices and scarce supplies, oil analysts are resorting to satellite imagery to crack one of the industry's biggest unknowns -- whether Saudi Arabia's massive Ghawar field is slipping into depleted old age.

Saudi Arabia has long contended that its famed Ghawar field, responsible for around 7% of global supply, remains in fine shape and will continue to churn out around five million barrels a day for years.
But Saudi Arabia doesn't publish data to back that up. Skeptical analysts in the West insist the field is in decline, an event they say presages a peak in world oil production.

Analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd., a New York-based investment research firm, just spent months trying to resolve the debate. Their tools? Cameras fixed to satellites that hover miles above the Saudi desert.

Combing through dozens of high-resolution satellite images of Ghawar going back to 2001, the Bernstein team has concluded in a study sent to clients at the end of April that only part of the vast field "is suffering signs of old age." On the whole, Bernstein says, the field "is being properly managed" and is experiencing only "mild production-decline rates at worst."

Critics of the study, including some who have crunched their own overhead imagery, say the Bernstein study is insufficient and the debate over Ghawar's health is far from over. "This is junk science," says Houston investment banker Matthew Simmons, who insists that only detailed, on-the-ground records can speak to the field's real condition. Mr. Simmons's 2005 book, "Twilight in the Desert," cited technical papers to argue that Ghawar and Saudi Arabia's other giant fields were showing signs of increasing stress and would soon slip into decline. Mr. Simmons is a well-known proponent of the theory that world-wide oil production may already have hit its all-time peak.

This latest tiff over Ghawar comes as alarm grows on Wall Street and in Washington over whether the world's big crude producers can keep pace with the growing demand for oil in Asia and the Middle East. U.S. benchmark crude closed at a new high of $119.97 a barrel Monday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price of crude has risen 25% so far this year and has increased 95% from a year ago.
Many of the world's other mighty fields, including Mexico's Cantarell and Kuwait's Burgan, have lost their vitality recently and need serious help. Russia just recorded its first quarterly output drop in almost a decade, stoking fears that the world's second-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia may have hit its own peak. The North Sea and Alaska's North Slope are already in steep decline.

All this has sharpened attention on the health of oil supplies in the Middle East, the world's most abundant crude repository.  Put into production in 1951, Ghawar remains the greatest treasure of hydrocarbons ever found. The Saudis say the field, measuring about 20 miles wide and 175 miles long, spits out as much oil every day as all the oil wells in the U.S. combined. Its output accounts for around 60% of total Saudi production.
Yet no one outside of Saudi Arabia has any sound data on production rates at Ghawar, or the kingdom's other huge fields. The Saudi Arabian Oil Co., better known as Aramco, has long been secretive about data on the kingdom's oil holdings, as are most Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries members whose economies are heavily dependent on oil revenue.

"The problem is that silence leads to speculation," says Neil McMahon, who led the Bernstein study as the firm's senior analyst. The motivation, he says, "was to confront the wBernstein has used satellites to probe other mysteries. It dug through overhead images of urbanization patterns in China last year to predict that demand for steel and other metals would hold strong before ebbing slightly around 2010. In 2005, it studied China's ports for evidence -- which it didn't find -- of whether the country was dramatically expanding its fuel-tank farms to hoard oil.

The Saudi study, Mr. McMahon says, was a lot more daunting. Theories of Ghawar's travails were fueled recently by reports that the number of drilling rigs in the kingdom tripled between 2004 and 2007. The spike led to speculation on peak-oil blogs that Aramco was conducting a wave of new drilling not just to add fresh capacity, but to stem rapid output declines in Ghawar and other fields.

Using images of Ghawar from 2004, Bernstein pinpointed more than 2,000 drilling or production sites, many of them old and abandoned. Satellite shots from 2007 found around 10% more drilling sites, mainly concentrated in areas of the field where Aramco was engaged in multibillion-dollar projects to bring on fresh production.

The satellite work also used overhead radar technology to determine whether the field showed any signs of surface collapse -- called "subsidence" in the industry -- that could indicate heavy depletion rates underground. Some of the world's most heavily produced fields in the North Sea and in Venezuela have shown sharp subsidence rates.

Instead, Mr. McMahon says, the radar found the northernmost part of the field, known as Shedgum, "was actually slightly uplifted." Bernstein attributed this rise to heavy water injection and what it surmised was Aramco's use of enhanced oil-recovery techniques, which boosted underground pressure enough to lift the ground level. Companies often turn to such elaborate extraction methods to nurse along fields in sharp decline.

Bernstein concluded that Shedgum, one of the oldest sections of Ghawar, was the only area facing serious challenges.  Aramco declined to comment. The company's former head of reservoir management, Nansen Saleri, said he agreed with the overall conclusion that Ghawar remains largely healthy. But Mr. Saleri, who left Aramco last fall, disputed that Aramco was doing any enhanced recovery work at Ghawar. He said he was also skeptical that Bernstein "can really tell what is going on at Ghawar from overhead imagery." One skeptical sleuth doing similar work is a hobbyist in Seattle who keeps a Web site called Satellite O'er The Desert and works under the pseudonym of Joules Burn. Using detailed images from Google Earth, the Web site has chronicled what it calls a "remarkable" uptick in drilling across large swaths of Ghawar.

The Web site's assessment so far is that Aramco is engaged in a massive redrilling of Ghawaras part of a "constant struggle to maintain the field's current production level."
hole peak-oil thing with some real data."

BachQ

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20080505/peak-oil-review-may-5th-2008.htm
Peak Oil Review -- May 5th, 2008 By Tom WhipplePosted 05 May 2008 @ 11:09 pm EST


2. U.S. Politics

With 44 percent of Americans now saying that gasoline prices are a serious problem, food prices continuing to climb, and Detroit's sales plummeting, politicians of all stripes are speaking out in a effort to exploit the situation.President Bush attacked the Democrats in Congress for blocking his proposals to drill in ANWR and off the coasts, and to increase refining. Presidential candidate McCain joined 22 Republican senators in urging the EPA to lower corn-based ethanol rules that are now perceived as running up food prices. The US Federal Trade Commission said it will yet again investigate possible market manipulation of gasoline prices and Senate Republicans have filed another bill to authorize drilling in Alaska's ANWR and on the Outer Continental Shelf.The most controversial proposal of the week was the one put forward by John McCain, endorsed by Hillary Clinton, and opposed by Barack Obama to suspend the 18.4 cent federal gasoline tax during the coming summer. This proposal raised a storm of adverse commentary ranging from " gas taxes should be raised not lowered" through "the oil companies will keep the money," to "what will pay for road maintenance."Another proposal popular in the Congress is to suspend additions to the strategic petroleum reserve, a move opposed by the administration. One senator even claims a veto-proof majority for this measure.Throughout this furor, proposals that might do some good are few and far between. The trucking industry, realizing they have a big problem, is pushing for a national 65 mph speed limit for all vehicles. The Rockefeller family is pushing Exxon to acknowledge global warming and get moving on alternative fuels. Climate change legislation that would significantly reduce greenhouse gases is headed to a debate in the Senate. The EIA weighed in on this by pointing out that a widespread switch to nuclear power and carbon sequestration is still years away so that electric utilities would be forced into increased use of expensive natural gas leading to increased prices.Amidst the jockeying for political advantage, no one, with the possible exception of the truckers, is willing to recognize that a massive conservation program is the only short-term way to keep gasoline prices from climbing to un-affordability. Even corn-based ethanol has become such a sacred cow that the Administration and Congress seem unwilling to tackle the problem until after the fall elections.

BachQ


OTC: $100 trillion needed to rebuild energy infrastructure

Uchenna Izundu
International Editor

HOUSTON, May 5 -- The oil and gas industry will need to invest $50-100 trillion to rebuild its ageing infrastructure within the next 7 years and stave off a serious drop in oil and gas production, Matt Simmons, chairman of Simmons & Co. International, told OGJ May 5 at the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston.

In a worst-case scenario, Simmons said, oil and gas output could fall by 10-20% by 2013 if industry does not replace its rusting, corroded assets. Spare capacity also has run out because formerly cheap prices for oil and gas precluded upgrading and construction of new facilities . The average age of offshore rigs is 25 years, and oil companies have ignored the problem for the past few decades because of the low energy prices, which meant that maintenance has been expensive. However, the upward trend in prices can help pay for the rebuilding of the energy system, Simmons stated. "There is no blueprint in place, and this is a global problem. The longer the blueprint is postponed, the more acute the crisis will get," he said.
The reconstruction problem is compounded by the shortage of skilled engineers to carry out the work and the scarcity of raw materials.

"No census has been carried out on the age of the infrastructure," he said. "The industry's tool kit for corrosion is old, and painting over rust creates an illusion. Few parts of oil infrastructure have been replaced." Leaks, stains, oil streaks, metal fatigue, and brittle steel are all signs of ageing pipelines, platforms, wells, and other assets. Simmons said the industry's focus had been on declining production, which was important, but it failed to recognize that declining oil fields are also accelerating rust on oil equipment.  "Peak oil is a reality. In 2005 we had peak production and this fell by 265,000 b/d in 2007. There is a high likelihood that production will continue to fall."

Simmons forecasts that oil prices could hit $200/bbl as global demand increases. He pointed out that the industry had previously sold its best-quality grade of oil at $15/bbl and flared natural gas because it was too costly to develop.  "That was a mistake," he concluded.

BachQ



City of Swiss-style hill villages envisioned here
Soaring food and fuel prices will make current planning model obsolete, architect says
Doug Ward, Vancouver Sun
Published: Tuesday, May 06, 2008



METRO VANCOUVER - Sky-high fuel and food prices will eventually make Metro Vancouver's current planning model of suburban communities linked by gas-guzzling highways economically obsolete.
So says Vancouver architect Richard Balfour who believes the region's future should resemble Switzerland rather than Los Angeles.

Balfour argues that Metro Vancouver should begin creating Swiss-style hill villages linked by rail rather than towns on flood plains and valleys connected by pavement.

This is what regional sustainability will require in the coming era of escalating oil prices, climate change and mass migration, says Balfour, a member of the Metro Vancouver Planning Coalition, an ad-hoc group of people concerned about urban issues.

"What is suggested here is the need for a radical rethink of all we take for granted," Balfour said in a report entitled Metro Hill Towns for Sustainable Futures, which he recently presented to Metro Vancouver's land use and transportation committee.

"The recommendation in this rethinking is not based on wishful thinking but on the need to carry out strategic sustainable planning to achieve a new workable pattern of community for a post-oil age."
Balfour's futuristic vision of rail networks and eco-towns on hillsides is also outlined in a new book, Strategic Sustainable Planning: A Civil Defense Manual for Cultural Survival.

Balfour, a former member of the Vancouver City Planning Commission, belongs to the Vancouver Peak Oil Executive, a group of people convinced that sky-high oil prices will force an end to suburban development as we know it.

Peak oil is the point when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which the rate of production enters its terminal decline, causing prices to spike to escalating levels. Balfour's theories may strike some as pessimistic quackery, but others may view them as prophetic, given this month's headlines about dramatic increases in oil and food prices around the world. Central to Balfour's regional revamp is his view that oil prices are going to soar to the point where it will become too expensive for Metro Vancouver to import food from southern regions. Currently, Metro Vancouver produces about 48 per cent of the food it consumes, Balfour said. But this level of eating locally produced food will have to rise in the future when oil prices make it uneconomic to import food from the tropics, he adds.

Southwest B.C.'s low-lying farmland needs to be protected and turned into a "green commons" for food production to serve nearby urban areas, Balfour argues. This strategy should include the clawback of Agricultural Land Reserve land lost in the past two decades to urban development or industry, he said.
"The move to the hill towns has to start now, not another generation from now, as we do not have the time to delay," he said in his report. "This means not following the current oil-age planning criteria or automobile engineering standards."

Balfour predicted that migration and population shifts mean that southwest B.C. and Washington state will have to absorb about another 20 million people, more than half the number of people now living in Canada or California.  The Vancouver architect argued that the region should include the Fraser Valley, the Sunshine Coast and Whistler, plus the adjacent Coast Mountain range in its overall planning area.
"The mountains are not a barrier but part of the ecological basin and a place . . . for new ecological communities," Balfour said.




BachQ


Gas may soar in June: Government

Energy Department forecasts an 11-cent jump in gas prices in June; expects crude oil to average $110 a barrel, a $9 rise.

May 6, 2008: 1:11 PM EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The government on Tuesday again raised its short-term price forecasts for crude oil and gasoline -- trends that are expected to tamp down demand. The Energy Department predicts average monthly gasoline prices should peak at $3.73 a gallon in June, an increase of about 11 cents from last month's estimate. Regular-grade gasoline is expected to average $3.52 a gallon in 2008, 71 cents above last year's average. Diesel fuel prices are projected to average $3.94 per gallon this year, up from $2.88 per gallon in 2007.

At the pump, gas prices dipped slightly overnight to remain at a national average of $3.61 a gallon Tuesday, and are well above the year-ago average of $3.04 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Diesel prices remained at about $4.24 a gallon, and both were within about a penny of record highs set last week.  EIA expects average daily oil consumption in the U.S. will fall by about 190,000 barrels this year because of the economic slowdown and high prices. That is more than double last month's forecast of a 90,000 barrel per day decrease.

Increase in barrel price

West Texas Intermediate crude is expected to average $110 a barrel this year compared with $72.32 a barrel last year, according to EIA. The latest estimate is a $9 a barrel increase compared with last month.
Light, sweet crude for June delivery broke $122 a barrel for the first time during Tuesday trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Also Tuesday, Sens. Jack Reed of Rhode Island and Carl Levin of Michigan asked President Bush to create a federal task force "to investigate whether speculators are driving up prices in energy commodity markets through manipulative or deceptive practices."
The Democrats asked that the group include the Secretary of the Treasury, Attorney General, and the chairmen of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Commodities Future Trading Commission, Federal Trade Commission and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. 

BachQ



Analyst: $200 oil could be ahead

Goldman Sachs analyst predicts crude could rise by another $80 this year, citing short supply; says energy crisis 'may be coming to a head.'

Last Updated: May 6, 2008: 10:46 AM EDT

NEW YORK (AP) -- A Goldman Sachs analyst predicts that oil prices could reach $150 to $200 a barrel over the next 6 months to two years, but said that how far prices could climb still "remains a major uncertainty."  "We believe the current energy crisis may be coming to a head, as the lack of adequate supply growth is becoming apparent," analyst Arjun N. Murti wrote in a client note.

Oil for June delivery hit a record $122 a barrel Tuesday in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.  Murti said his highest forecast prices represent the possible culmination of a "super spike" - the steady rise in oil prices the analyst first called for three years ago.  At the time of his prediction in April 2005, the forward crude contract settled at $57.01 a barrel. Murti saw prices ascending as high as $105 - saying that was the price at which it might be necessary to pull back significantly on energy consumption. One contrarian analyst called that figure "laughable." That analyst, Citi Investment Research's Tim Evans, asserted in a client note Tuesday that oil prices have the same potential to fall by $40 to $50 per barrel over the next 6 months to two years as to rise like Murti predicts. "The fundamental premise behind the latest calls seems thin at best," Evans said. But soaring oil prices have already squeezed the profits of companies from truckers and railroads to airlines - who mark fuel as their highest cost. The effects have also trickled down to consumers, as gas prices follow suit.

BachQ




Feldstein Says U.S. Economy `Sliding' Into Recession (Update1)
By Anthony Massucci and Kathleen Hays

May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein, a member of the committee that charts the American business cycle, said the U.S. economy is ``sliding into a recession.'' ``This is a weakening economy,'' Feldstein, president of the National Bureau of Economic Research, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in New York. ``If you compare where the economy is now, with where it began at the beginning of the year, just about every indicator is down.''

The comments by Feldstein, a Republican, go farther than anyone in the Bush administration has gone in publicly characterizing the severity of the U.S. slowdown. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in an interview last week said the economy is ``still growing, albeit modestly.''  In Frankfurt today, Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann said ``we don't expect a recession in the U.S.'' and the financial crisis stemming from the collapse of the U.S. subprime market may be nearing an end.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, seeking to end the worst housing slump in a quarter century, urged the government and mortgage lenders in a speech yesterday to intensify efforts to avoid foreclosures. Foreclosure filings rose 57 percent in March from a year earlier, according to Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac Inc.  Feldstein, 68, said the biggest risk to the economy is a sharper downturn in housing.

BachQ



High Oil Prices Won't Cut Demand, IEA Economics Chief Says
By Jim Kennett

May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Oil prices pushing well past $100 a barrel will do little to stop worldwide demand, the economics chief for the International Energy Agency said. Subsidies in China, India and oil-producing countries will combine with strong economic growth in those areas to support demand even with rising prices, Fatih Birol, chief economist at the IEA, told a panel at the energy industry's Offshore Technology Conference in Houston. That runs counter to history, which saw demand fall about 2 percent during the high prices of 1973 to 1974, and more than 7 percent from 1979 to 1981, he said.

``We shouldn't expect too much from the price, in terms of bringing demand down,'' he said. ``China and India are transforming the energy markets by the sheer size of their populations.''  Crude prices have soared in the past year, with futures touching a record $122.73 a barrel today on the New York Mercantile Exchange, amid rising demand from emerging-market economies.  China alone will import 13 million barrels of oil by 2030, nearing the level of U.S. imports, as the number of drivers rises from 20 out of 1,000 people to 140 out of 1,000, Birol said. That compares to 860 out of every thousand residents in the U.S.

``We have no right whatsoever to blame China and India,'' he said. ``They are only doing what the rich countries, the OECD countries, did.''  That inherent right to supplies means the Organization for Cooperation and Development, which includes the U.S. and European governments, must work hard to include incentives for China and India to increase efficiencies and cut greenhouse-gas emissions, Birol said.


Al Moritz

Quote from: Dm on May 06, 2008, 06:00:46 PM
Al, before you go dancing in the streets to celebrate all the money you'll save by switching to natural gas, the historical trend has been that natural gas prices mirror/parallel crude oil prices.  Thus, when crude oil prices double, so too do natural gas prices.

CLICK HERE

Of course prices are going up for natural gas too, but not in a linear fashion with oil. The prices for natural gas have doubled since 1991, whereas prices for home heating fuel have risen five-fold.

You keep posting all those warning posts, and when someone actually does something about it, then your only answer is another doom prophecy, instead of acknowledging the effort.

How pathetic. What is the purpose of this thread then? (Not that I converted to natural gas because of your posts by any means.)

Florestan

Wait a minute! Do you guys in US heat your homes with oil?!   :o :o :o
There is no theory. You have only to listen. Pleasure is the law. — Claude Debussy

BachQ

Quote from: Al Moritz on May 06, 2008, 06:40:25 PM
You keep posting all those warning posts, and when someone actually does something about it, then your only answer is another doom prophecy, instead of acknowledging the effort.


Your "solution" might seem sensible for a few years, but once natural gas extraction peaks (estimated to be around 2010 in US; 2018 globally), its costs will escalate progressively.  That is a fact of life.  I have natural gas heating in my home, and I'm frightened to death with the inescapable likelihood that the cost will soar in a few years.  It really sucks (but it's true that heating oil would be worse).

Quote from: Al Moritz on May 06, 2008, 06:40:25 PM
How pathetic.

There is no question that natural gas is CURRENTLY a better value than heating oil (which is essentially a form of diesel oil, the prices for which have been skyrocketing).  So you made a wise move in the short-term.  But at the end of the day, you're substituting one non-renewable fossil fuel for another non-renewable fossil fuel, both of which are destined to soar in costs once their extractions have peaked. 

Quote from: Al Moritz on May 06, 2008, 06:40:25 PM
What is the purpose of this thread then?

The age of fossil fuels is coming to an end, and substituting one fossil fuel for another might buy you some short-term relief, but in the long-term, it merely substitutes one vanishing commodity for another vanishing commodity.

Al Moritz

Quote from: Dm on May 07, 2008, 03:29:03 AM
Your "solution" might seem sensible for a few years, but once natural gas extraction peaks (estimated to be around 2010 in US; 2018 globally), its costs will escalate progressively.  That is a fact of life.  I have natural gas heating in my home, and I'm frightened to death with the inescapable likelihood that the cost will soar in a few years.  It really sucks (but it's true that heating oil would be worse).

There is no question that natural gas is CURRENTLY a better value than heating oil (which is essentially a form of diesel oil, the prices for which have been skyrocketing).  So you made a wise move in the short-term.  But at the end of the day, you're substituting one non-renewable fossil fuel for another non-renewable fossil fuel, both of which are destined to soar in costs once their extractions have peaked. 

The age of fossil fuels is coming to an end, and substituting one fossil fuel for another might buy you some short-term relief, but in the long-term, it merely substitutes one vanishing commodity for another vanishing commodity.


So, instead of whining around, what are your solutions to the home heating problem?

BachQ

Quote from: Al Moritz on May 07, 2008, 05:11:14 AM
So, instead of whining around, what are your solutions to the home heating problem?

For the record, you are whining about my whining ..........

Al Moritz

Quote from: Dm on May 07, 2008, 09:52:37 AM
For the record, you are whining about my whining ..........

So you are whining about my whining about your whining? And, what's the solution that I asked for? No whining, please.

drogulus

#497
Quote from: Sean on May 06, 2008, 03:55:21 PM
I hope you're right. But billions of cars, lorries, buses, all aircraft, plus almost all shipping all have petrol and diesel engines in them: they only work on petrol and diesel. Understand?

     Fuel economy rose rapidly after the '70s energy crisis, partly as a result of government action, but mostly because people relaced gas guzzlers with more economical cars. Cars last longer today, so it will take longer to change over. It will happen, though. You will get a mix of responses: smaller, lighter vehicles, plugin hybrids, fuel cell electrics, hydrogen and CNG based engines and multiple fuel cars.

     
     Long term I'd like to see a predominantly electric energy economy with local (hydrogen fuel cell based) generation, clean coal and nuclear plants providing the bulk of power generation along with solar, wind and geothermal.

     
Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64; rv:123.0) Gecko/20100101 Firefox/123.0
      
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Sean

Sure drogulus, I hope this sort of thing happens. I'm a cynic in some ways but have a few life plans of my own I'd like to carry out before the energy crisis really bites, if indeed it's going to.

However the literature on this will point out that humanity just has not, for whatever reason, succeeded in securing large scale renewable energy supplies for itself. The modern world can look strong, but isn't: Western forces aren't in the middle east because of terrorism, that's just psychological fodder for the democratic masses who don't have the minds to think through these things and want a cushioned normative world view.

The 'transition' that people casually talk about simply doesn't look like happening- no one knows of anything to replace the ease of pumping out oil. Energy is the most serious and complex of questions- it's not a transition to a new soap powder.

Most of history's wars have been fought for energy resources: it's simple logic- if you kill or control the people over there, you can have more of what you want over here. Morality doesn't really enter into it, and it certainly looks like the major players today, US, China, Iran, are gearing up for war.

By the way high grade nuclear fuel is also peaking. The best bet might have been solar...

Daverz

Quote
Tired of paying through the nose, Americans try praying at the pump

by Karin Zeitvogel

[snip...]
    "Lord, come down in a mighty way and strengthen us so that we can bring down these high gas prices," Twyman said to a chorus of "amens".
    "Prayer is the answer to every problem in life... We call on God to intervene in the lives of the selfish, greedy people who are keeping these prices high," Twyman said on the gas station forecourt in a neighborhood of Washington that, like many of its residents, has seen better days."Lord, the prices at this pump have gone up since last week. We know that you are able, that you have all the power in the world," he prayed, before former beauty queen Rashida Jolley led the group in a modified version of the spiritual, "We Shall Overcome"."We'll have lower gas prices, we'll have lower gas prices..." they sang.
[...]

Kind of shortsighted.  Why not pray for workable fusion power and more efficient batteries for electric cars?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080505/lf_afp/usreligionpovertyenergyoil