Russian attacks over Georgia

[Florestan]

I take this to be a claim on your part that Russia wants to somehow annex or control all the territory that used to be part of the USSR. Is that what you mean?

Exactly.

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

 
The failure of Gorbachev to see the parallels between the Georgian government's action to preserve their geographical integrity and the Russian actions in Chechnya is telling.  Gorbachev is very concerned with the fact that the breakaway provinces (Ossetia and Abkhazia) have ethnic Russians as well as the fact that ethic Georgians also live in Russia.  Thus Russia has the right to invade and unite the ethnic Georgians of those provinces with the ethic Georgians living in Russia -- ergo these provinces had the right to break away.

A note on annexation. Personally I doubt that Russia wants to annex S. Ossetia and Abkhazia directly. Why? Because such an action would send a positive signal to separatists within Russia itself. If Ossetians can secede from Georgia, why can't [name of ethnic group] secede from Russia?

An interesting piece of news came out this week. The peoples of Idel-Ural have set up a "Coordinating Council" to work together for defense of language rights, cultural autonomy, and other related things. Idel-Ural is Tatar for "Volga-Ural," it's an umbrella grouping of Tatars, Bashkirs, Chuvashes, and nearby Finno-Ugric peoples, such as the Mordvins and Udmurts. If they suddenly have decided to work together on things, this might set off alarm bells in Moscow. Incidentally, Tatarstan enjoyed something like de facto independence in the 1990s, and today it has about as much autonomy as a region can have without being actually independent.

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

Exactly.

I disagree for a number of reasons. But I would be curious to know how you think they could accomplish this.

[Florestan]

I read this as meaning 'If you have been used to being an empire for so long, you'll try to become as big a player again as circumstances allow.' Because I don't think any country will ever be an empire in a global sense. Attempting it would risk globocide (word coined by German philosopher Günther Anders).

I don't claim that Russia tries to be a "global empire"? Not at all. All I'm saying is that Russia is trying hard to recover its former empire. As for circumstances and allowances, Russian leaders are only too clever to either exploit or otherwise create them. We have been accustomed after 1989 with the rhetoric of friendship, partnership and peaceful cooperation between EU and Russia or USA and Russia. I didn't buy this claptrap for a second. USA and Russia pursue relentlessly their own goals, while the weak, naive or double-playing (Schroeder anyone?) European leaders have turned UE into a powerless and coward "superpower". As Wurstwasser correctly mentioned, trying to compromise everything with everyone in order to preserve peace is not going to work. Actually, it's going to create more mess.

[Wanderer]

In anticipation of your answers I await with receipt in hand to claim my refund from Russia for faulty ideological goods.

I hope it's not a standing queue.

[Sarastro]

I don't claim that Russia tries to be a "global empire"? Not at all. All I'm saying is that Russia is trying hard to recover its former empire.

Well...hm...if Russia recovers its former Empire, then it can hardly be not called "global." Russian Empire: (includes Ukraine, Poland, Belarus, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Alaska, all small Caucasian nations, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and some other partial regions; light green - its spheres of influence)

[Florestan]

A note on annexation. Personally I doubt that Russia wants to annex S. Ossetia and Abkhazia directly. Why? Because such an action would send a positive signal to separatists within Russia itself. If Ossetians can secede from Georgia, why can't [name of ethnic group] secede from Russia?

As if Russia has ever been respectful of international rights and laws... Remember Chechnya?

I disagree for a number of reasons. But I would be curious to know how you think they could accomplish this.

By applying the good ol' principle: Divide et impera.

Annexation of certain territories is easy. South Ossetians and Abkhazians have been granted Russian citizenship. Ergo, any attack on them is an attack on Russia, who has the right to defend its own citizens. And if this can't be done because they belong to Georgia, then why not make them part of Russia? A referendum will be organized, the Kosovo precedent will be invoked. Who will interfere? EU and USA have done the same thing to Serbia, why can't Russia do the same to Georgia? The same applies to Transnistria. Actually, this scenario has been publicly stated by Putin right after the Kosovo secession. Moreover, this will give de jure status to a de facto situation.

Control is a little more difficult, they have to install puppet regimes in certain countries. But given their extensive expertise in the field I have no doubt they'll accomplish this task as well.

You may disagree, but time will tell.

[Florestan]

Well...hm...if Russia recovers its former Empire, then it can hardly be not called "global." Russian Empire: (includes the Ukraine, Poland, Belarus, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Alaska, all small Caucasian nations, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and some other partial regions, light green - its spheres of influence)

I was not referring to Tsarist Russia, but to the USSR.

[Sarastro]

I was not referring to Tsarist Russia, but to the USSR.

Then it's not The Russian Empire, take off Alaska, Finland, and Poland.

[Wanderer]

I was not referring to Tsarist Russia, but to the USSR.

Both had, more or less, the same aspirations, though.

[Sarastro]

Ok, what else does Russia need then? Ukraine, Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, all small Caucasian nations, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan? Time will tell.

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

As if Russia has ever been respectful of international rights and laws... Remember Chechnya?

You have totally missed the point I was trying to make. Please read my "note on annexation" again. It has nothing to do with international law - it's a practical matter.

By applying the good ol' principle: Divide et impera.

Annexation of certain territories is easy. South Ossetians and Abkhazians have been granted Russian citizenship. Ergo, any attack on them is an attack on Russia, who has the right to defend its own citizens. And if this can't be done because they belong to Georgia, then why not make them part of Russia?

Ossetia and Abkhazia are the smallest of small potatoes. How would Russia deal with a country like Ukraine (pop. 46 million, considerable military forces), Kazakhstan (8 times the size of France in area), or the Baltic states (EU and NATO members)?

[Florestan]

Then it's not The Russian Empire, take off Alaska, Finland, and Poland.

I took them off all right.

[Florestan]

You have totally missed the point I was trying to make. Please read my "note on annexation" again. It has nothing to do with international law - it's a practical matter.

That's my point too. Russia will support any seceding nation form its neighbours --- in the name of the right to self-determination, mind you --- but will crush mercilessly any such attempt on its territory. Very practical and convenient.

Ossetia and Abkhazia are the smallest of small potatoes. How would Russia deal with a country like Ukraine (pop. 46 million, considerable military forces), Kazakhstan (8 times the size of France in area), or the Baltic states (EU and NATO members)?

Putin has already warned that should Ukraine be given NATO membership the eastern part of it might secede and unite with Russia. As for Kazakhstan, there is no need to annex it directly. Political control will do, as in Moldova who already has a staunchly pro-Russian government

The only former USSR countries that might have escaped forever from Moscow's orbit are indeed the Baltic States.

[ezodisy]

Ok, what else does Russia need then? Ukraine, Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, all small Caucasian nations, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan? Time will tell.

Hey, no one is touching Lithuania without a fight!      

Kazakhstan (8 times the size of France in area)

This one for me always boggles the mind. It is gigantic and extremely rich in natural resources. Even the Chinese are tapping it up for oil and it's only going to get more competitive.

[Sarastro]

And of course now Poland takes its "revenge".

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

That's my point too. Russia will support any seceding nation form its neighbours --- in the name of the right to self-determination, mind you --- but will crush mercilessly any such attempt on its territory. Very practical and convenient.

Whether they will "crush mercilessly" or not, it is entirely within their interest NOT to give minorities excuses to stir things up. Trying to wage war on the Tatars (Russia's largest minority) or Idel-Ural peoples would be devastating for the country as a whole, not just for those regions. It would be like Chechnya times 10.

Putin has already warned that should Ukraine be given NATO membership the eastern part of it might secede and unite with Russia.

Let's consider Ukraine, it's the heavyweight here. Your use of language ("the eastern part might secede") suggests either that Eastern Ukrainians are just itching to secede, or that Putin can somehow make this happen. Very unlikely in both cases. Here are the words of Viktor Yanukovych, leader of Ukraine's Party of Regions, who is often dubbed as "a pro-Russian puppet" by the Western media:

"I come from Eastern Ukraine, where the first language of the majority of people is Russian... Some have suggested that the cultural influence of Russia and the linguistic origins of people such as myself are proof that the Party of Regions is pro-Russian. It is not."

In fact, the main ambition of Eastern Ukraine is to maintain its economic dominance over all of Ukraine. Most of the country's big businessmen come from there. They are the real players and are not going to respond positively to any call for secession from Moscow, since it would put there own economic interests at risk.

[Florestan]

Whether they will "crush mercilessly" or not, it is entirely within their interest NOT to give minorities excuses to stir things up.

Do you really believe that (a) SO are not going to secede and (b) the Russian government will not encourage or support such a move? Then it's Medvedev himself who contradicts you, as he has clearly and publicly stated: whatever the Abkhazians and South Ossetians decide, Russia will guarantee militarily.

Let's consider Ukraine, it's the heavyweight here. Your use of language ("the eastern part might secede")

It's not mine but Putin's.

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

Do you really believe that (a) SO are not going to secede and (b) the Russian government will not encourage or support such a move?

I'll wait and see. I still think annexing those territories could have potentially dire consequences for Russia as a unified state.

It's not mine but Putin's.

Putin can say whatever he wants, but his leverage over Ukraine is limited.

[Florestan]

I'll wait and see. I still think annexing those territories could have potentially dire consequences for Russia as a unified state.

You are right. But then again, rationality, logic and restraint doesn't go together with foreign policy, especially Russian foreign policy.

Putin can say whatever he wants, but his leverage over Ukraine is limited.

Maybe, but I'm sure he's working on it...