Ok, I made that part up - but there really is a coup in progress! :o
The Dogan news agency published a statement from the military saying that it had" fully seized control" over the country. The statement said the coup was "to reinstall the constitutional order, democracy, human rights and freedoms, to ensure that the rule of law once again reigns in the country, for the law and order to be reinstated."
Will the military mandate at least half of all evening radio programming to include Ahmed Adnan Saygun [1907-1991]? Time will tell . . .
Good thing the British has Boris Johnson to handle the delicate situation, then.
Oh dear.
There was a young fellow from Ankara
Who was a terrific wankerer
Till he sowed his wild oats
With the help of a goat
But he didn't even stop to thankera.
Quote from: The new erato on July 15, 2016, 02:08:20 PM
Good thing the British has Boris Johnson to handle the delicate situation, then.
8)
My friend in Ankara says a lot of confusing and contradictory information around. Jets are flying and occasional gunshots are heard.
I'm surprised it took this long - the military has been uncomfortable with the religious nature of the government for some time. They want to keep it much more secular and their positions entrenched. Erdy may have to live in exile. 8)
As long as the Turkish military doesn't mess around with US nukes stored in Turkey - and I have no reason to believe they will - then no big fuss, other than stock market turmoil on Monday.
If the military takes control, I'd advise IS leaders to sue for peace. The Turks in the West. The Iranians in the East. Is Obama playing a proper Realist game? Maybe.
Quote from: ComposerOfAvantGarde on July 15, 2016, 02:43:20 PM
Oh dear.
There was a young fellow from Ankara
Who was a terrific wankerer
Till he sowed his wild oats
With the help of a goat
But he didn't even stop to thankera.
60 dead. Weren't you scolding us on another thread about "thoughtful posts" about victims?
I am surprised by two things.
1. That it took that long for a military coup against Erdogan to be staged.
2. That it was so ill judged, ill prepared and ill executed. The Turkish Army is probably the world´s leading expert in coups: they had never failed a single one until now (there were about 6 in the last 60 years). Looks more like a reckless improvisation of a few hotheads than a carefully planned and managed military operation. It´s obvious that only a tiny fraction of the army, and probably not the best and the brightest, was involved.
I fear that this misguided adventure will only reenforce Erdogan´s authoritarianism and dictatorial behaviour and he´ll have a strong pretext to wipe out any opposition once and for all.
+1 to all of those observations.
http://www.nytimes.com/1997/05/04/arts/classical-music-apolitical-not-in-turkey.html
Still relevant.
Quote from: Todd on July 15, 2016, 05:47:57 PM
As long as the Turkish military doesn't mess around with US nukes stored in Turkey - and I have no reason to believe they will
The only nuclear weapons that have been deployed are the bombs that would be delivered by U.S. F-16s or Turkish F-100, F-104, and F-4 "Phantom" aircraft at air bases in Eskisehir, Malatya (Erhac), Ankara (Akinci/Murted), and Balikesir.[12] All such weapons, whether on U.S. or Turkish aircraft, have been under the custody of the U.S. Air Force.
Quote from: Florestan on July 16, 2016, 02:18:37 AM
I fear that this misguided adventure will only reenforce Erdogan´s authoritarianism and dictatorial behaviour and he´ll have a strong pretext to wipe out any opposition once and for all.
Yes, absolutely. Erdogan is already blaming the harmless Gulen religious group and the Guardian is reporting that the government has fired 2,745 judges, even though the coup was clearly not organized by judges.
In complete fairness, though, I must confess I am acutely aware that criticizing Erdogan for authoritarian and even dictatorial behaviour is quite hypocritical --- because that´s exactly how Ataturk himself and many (if not most / all) of his succesors ruled.
Let´s face it: Mustafa Kemal was a military dictator in all but name (Napoleon immediately comes to mind, popularity included) and it is precisely he who envisioned, implemented and bequeathed the Turkish Army´s role as guardian angel of Turkey´s secularism, laicity and modernization (ie, Westernization).
Honestly, I doubt that Erdogan´s methods of dealing with the opposition differ greatly from those of Ataturk´s. I might even argue that Erdogan´s are actually milder and softer and smaller-scale-ish, because the international and internal context is very different today than it was in the 1920s-1930s.
I think this is a very clear case of Machiavellianism (one to which I subscribe unabashedly): as long as authoritarianism and (military) dictatorship are put to the service of laicity and modernization, they are palatable, even beneficial; when they serve Islamic / Ottomanist revival and traditionalism they are at least potentially dangerous and at worst directly threatening.
My previous post ended on a pessimistic note. But perhaps there is room to hope that Erdogan learned his lesson and that he might moderate his approach and try a conciliation with the opposition. After all, the parlamentarian opposition parties rallied behind him as the democratically elected leader of the republic (which he undoubtedly is). So the ball is on his side to seize a good opportunity to try reunite a country which is sharply divided and whose stability and frim engagement in the Western camp is essential.
And let´s be honest once again. when it comes to political and social Islamism I´d rather have it Turkey style evry night and day over Iran, Saudi Arabia or ISIS. For all his faults, Erdogan is a thousand times better than all the other bastards, not least because (1) he is the president of a NATO country, and (2) he will eventually be defeated in elections.
NB: I am far from being Erdogan´s fan and in another context I would have hearrtily applauded a carefully planned, managed and executed military coup against him. But we´re living in 2016. Realpolitik is more real than ever.
Quote from: Florestan on July 16, 2016, 05:38:58 AM
In complete fairness, though, I must confess I am acutely aware that criticizing Erdogan for authoritarian and even dictatorial behaviour is quite hypocritical --- because that´s exactly how Ataturk himself and many (if not most / all) of his succesors ruled.
Let´s face it: Mustafa Kemal was a military dictator in all but name (Napoleon immediately comes to mind, popularity included) and it is precisely he who envisioned, implemented and bequeathed the Turkish Army´s role as guardian angel of Turkey´s secularism, laicity and modernization (ie, Westernization).
Honestly, I doubt that Erdogan´s methods of dealing with the opposition differ greatly from those of Ataturk´s. I might even argue that Erdogan´s are actually milder and softer and smaller-scale-ish, because the international and internal context is very different today than it was in the 1920s-1930s.
I think this is a very clear case of Machiavellianism (one to which I subscribe unabashedly): as long as authoritarianism and (military) dictatorship are put to the service of laicity and modernization, they are palatable, even beneficial; when they serve Islamic / Ottomanist revival and traditionalism they are at least potentially dangerous and at worst directly threatening.
My previous post ended on a pessimistic note. But perhaps there is room to hope that Erdogan learned his lesson and that he might moderate his approach and try a conciliation with the opposition. After all, the parlamentarian opposition parties rallied behind him as the democratically elected leader of the republic (which he undoubtedly is). So the ball is on his side to seize a good opportunity to try reunite a country which is sharply divided and whose stability and frim engagement in the Western camp is essential.
And let´s be honest once again. when it comes to political and social Islamism I´d rather have it Turkey style evry night and day over Iran, Saudi Arabia or ISIS. For all his faults, Erdogan is a thousand times better than all the other bastards, not least because (1) he is the president of a NATO country, and (2) he will eventually be defeated in elections.
NB: I am far from being Erdogan´s fan and in another context I would have hearrtily applauded a carefully planned, managed and executed military coup against him. But we´re living in 2016. Realpolitik is more real than ever.
Im not optimistic. For one thing, he is not really the constitutional leader. The PM is supposed to be, Erdogan has rather usurped power. So my guess is he will grab more. As Brian notes, he's already started. We will, but I am not hopeful.
Otherwise I agree. I had Ataturk as my avatar for a while btw.
Quote from: Florestan on July 16, 2016, 05:38:58 AM[a]s long as authoritarianism and (military) dictatorship are put to the service of laicity and modernization, they are palatable, even beneficial; when they serve Islamic / Ottomanist revival and traditionalism they are at least potentially dangerous and at worst directly threatening...Realpolitik is more real than ever.
Yep and yep. (I know, I know, I should clamor for democracy in that part of the world, and all that, but it has not exactly gone swimmingly so far.)
I wonder if this coup and backlash helps or hurts Turkey's entry into the EU? (Actually, I don't.)
Quote from: Ken B on July 16, 2016, 05:44:53 AM
Im not optimistic. For one thing, he is not really the constitutional leader. The PM is supposed to be, Erdogan has rather usurped power.
AFAIK, the Turkish Constitution has been ammended by referendum in order to expand presidentail powers. But I might be wrong.
Quote
So my guess is he will grab more. As Brian notes, he's already started.
The situation is still cloudy and heated. Let´s wait and see.
And now that I think of it, if he will really and recklessly upset the whole Army then he might really face a real, Made-in-Turkey TM coup. ;D
Be it as it may, prolonged chaos in Turkey is the last thing we need.
Looks like it's all over.
Too bad.
Quote from: Todd on July 16, 2016, 05:48:24 AM
I wonder if this coup and backlash helps or hurts Turkey's entry into the EU? (Actually, I don't.)
Turkey will never join the EU.
Should we start a pool on the number of executions to come? We could divide them into summary, show trial, and proper due process categories.
Quote from: Todd on July 16, 2016, 06:23:05 AM
Should we start a pool
Pool or poll? ;D
I´d say not a single one. Erdogan needs NATO just as badly as NATO needs Erdogan. ;D
Quote from: Florestan on July 16, 2016, 06:29:33 AMI´d say not a single one.
So you're leaning toward summary and secret.
(If executions limit NATO participation, how can the US stay in?)
Quote from: Todd on July 16, 2016, 06:40:57 AM
So you're leaning toward summary and secret.
(If executions limit NATO participation, how can the US stay in?)
You don´t shoot anyone, we stay in Incirlik.
Shoot somebody and we´re out, deal with Putin on your own.
;D ;D ;D
Quote from: Florestan on July 16, 2016, 06:06:41 AM
Turkey will never join the EU.
I hear there's an opening.
Quote from: Florestan on July 16, 2016, 07:31:16 AM
Shoot somebody and we´re out, deal with Putin on your own.
That would be an empty threat. The US Navy needs access to the Black Sea for strategic reasons and the USAF relies heavily on Incirlik Air Base. I think if Erdogan acts rashly and knocks off a few coup plotters, the US will issue stiffly worded memoranda, a few politicians may make mildly bold public statements, and there will be talk about restructuring some of the economic arrangements the two governments have in place.
Quote from: Florestan on July 16, 2016, 07:31:16 AM
You don´t shoot anyone, we stay in Incirlik.
Shoot somebody and we´re out, deal with Putin on your own.
;D ;D ;D
Erdogan will not have quite carte Blanche, but a few dozen executions will cause no real repercussions from the Obama administration. As Todd says, a few pro forma expressions of disapproval.
Quote from: Todd on July 16, 2016, 07:40:06 AM
That would be an empty threat. The US Navy needs access to the Black Sea for strategic reasons and the USAF relies heavily on Incirlik Air Base. I think if Erdogan acts rashly and knocks off a few coup plotters, the US will issue stiffly worded memoranda, a few politicians may make mildly bold public statements, and there will be talk about restructuring some of the economic arrangements the two governments have in place.
Quote from: Ken B on July 16, 2016, 07:51:14 AM
Erdogan will not have quite carte Blanche, but a few dozen executions will cause no real repercussions from the Obama administration. As Todd says, a few pro forma expressions of disapproval.
Oh, I agree. A few rash shootings might take place, but no more than that. ;D
What a listless coup. If you're gambling with your lives you might as well make a decent effort.
More than 2,700 judges deposed and arrested???
Where are you now, you effing idiot John McCain? ;D ;D ;D This could not happen in Romania in a thousand years...
Quote from: Florestan on July 16, 2016, 11:30:37 AM
More than 2,700 judges deposed and arrested???
Yeah, Erdogen wins...and democracy loses.
Sarge
Quote from: Sergeant Rock on July 16, 2016, 11:37:51 AM
Erdogen wins...and democracy loses.
Really? Isn´t a military
coup d´etat supposed to be the very contrary of a democracy? ;D ;D ;D
(for the record: rhetoric and irony, just in case...)
Rumor has it that it was actually a fake coup, orchestrated by Erdogan himself...
Just reporting... ;D
Quote from: Florestan on July 16, 2016, 11:30:37 AM
More than 2,700 judges deposed and arrested???
Where are you now, you effing idiot John McCain? ;D ;D ;D This could not happen in Romania in a thousand years...
Ich verstehe nicht wass dies hat mit McCain zu tun.
Blame any errors on autocorrect :)
" Turkish Islamic preacher Fethullah Gulen, pictured at his residence in Saylorsburg, Pa., is charged in Turkey with plotting to overthrow the government. (AP)
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on the U.S. Saturday to extradite a Muslim cleric living in Pennsylvania following a failed military coup.
In a televised speech, Erdogan said Turkey had never refused any request by the U.S. to extradite "terrorists" and invoked Washington and Ankara's relationship as "strategic partners" in an effort to force the return of Fethullah Gulen.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Saturday the Obama administration would entertain an extradition request but Turkey would have to prove wrongdoing by Gulen.
Gulen denied knowledge of the coup to reporters at his Pennsylvania compound Saturday. The cleric said that he knows only a "minute fraction" of his legions of sympathizers in Turkey, so he cannot speak to their "potential involvement" in the takeover attempt.
"You can think about many motivations of people who staged this coup. They could be sympathizers of the opposition party. They could be sympathizers of the nationalist party. It could be anything," Gulen, who has lived in the U.S. for more than 15 years, said through an interpreter.
The frail-looking Gulen, in his mid-70s, said he wouldn't have returned to Turkey even if the coup had succeeded, fearing he would be "persecuted and harassed." "
:blank:
My Turkish friend in Ankara believes that things will get worse now. She says that it is the end of the Turkish Republic and the regime will now become increasingly repressive. Was this a fake coup?
The stiffly worded diplomatic admonitions have started. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/kerry-warns-turkey-nato-membership-potentially-at-stake-in-crackdown/2016/07/18/f427ba8a-4850-11e6-8dac-0c6e4accc5b1_story.html) EU membership might be at stake. (How much do Turk leaders really want that?) And it is too soon to know if Turkey's NATO membership is at risk. That's pretty tough diplomatic talk. I wonder if Erdogan will push back by threatening, publicly or privately, to kill the refugee deal with European powers.
The worst fears are confirmed. Erdogan lost any trace of whatever reason he might have still had and turned into a mad dog.
It is obvious that Turkey is today a full-fledged dictatorship in all but name. Thousands of army officers, judges, prosecutors and civil servants are fired and / or arrested. The media are tightly controlled by the government. The "opposition parties" are conspicuously silent and their leaders probably (and reasonably) fear for their own lives. The secular and liberal Turkish people are conspicuously silent and passive (remember the massive Taksim protests just a few years ago?). And what is most surprising, saddening and dangerous of all, the Turkish army is being decapitated and humiliated publicly without issuing even a formal protest, and their morale is probably at its historical lowest.
It is equally obvious that the real coup has been orchestrated long ago and conducted for years by none other than Erdogan himself and his acolytes --- a slow-motion, step-by-step, quiet but all the more effective coup against the modern, secular Turkish Republic, which today can be safely pronounced officially dead. Mustafa Kemal must be rolling in his grave: his work is undone beyond repair.
The biggest problem is that, militarily speaking, Turkey is de facto already out of NATO. Only a naive can think that a decapitated, humiliated, confused military, whose high ranks officers are arrested by the thousands without any resistance or formal protest can still succesfully fulfil their NATO missions and objectives. Add to this the hesitations and the (not so) latent Rusophilia of Bulgaria and it leaves Romania as the only reliable and dedicated NATO member at the Black Sea. Unfortunately, our military capacity, especially that of our Navy´s, is absolutely no match for Russia´s. In just 72 hours the Black Sea has became the most vulnerable and dangerous NATO border.
Quote from: Florestan on July 19, 2016, 12:30:26 AM
The worst fears are confirmed. Erdogan lost any trace of whatever reason he might have still had and turned into a mad dog.
It is obvious that Turkey is today a full-fledged dictatorship in all but name. Thousands of army officers, judges, prosecutors and civil servants are fired and / or arrested. The media are tightly controlled by the government. The "opposition parties" are conspicuously silent and their leaders probably (and reasonably) fear for their own lives. The secular and liberal Turkish people are conspicuously silent and passive (remember the massive Taksim protests just a few years ago?). And what is most surprising, saddening and dangerous of all, the Turkish army is being decapitated and humiliated publicly without issuing even a formal protest, and their morale is probably at its historical lowest.
It is equally obvious that the real coup has been orchestrated long ago and conducted for years by none other than Erdogan himself and his acolytes --- a slow-motion, step-by-step, quiet but all the more effective coup against the modern, secular Turkish Republic, which today can be safely pronounced officially dead. Mustafa Kemal must be rolling in his grave: his work is undone beyond repair.
The biggest problem is that, militarily speaking, Turkey is de facto already out of NATO. Only a naive can think that a decapitated, humiliated, confused military, whose high ranks officers are arrested by the thousands without any resistance or formal protest can still succesfully fulfil their NATO missions and objectives. Add to this the hesitations and the (not so) latent Rusophilia of Bulgaria and it leaves Romania as the only reliable and dedicated NATO member at the Black Sea. Unfortunately, our military capacity, especially that of our Navy´s, is absolutely no match for Russia´s. In just 72 hours the Black Sea has became the most vulnerable and dangerous NATO border.
This is all convincing, except the mad dog part. He is quite sane and calculating. He wants an Islamic republic, and is building one, to the applause of Obama and most of the western leaders. I see the same fools making the same error they made during "Arab Spring".