(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png)
Assuming it doesn't veer N/NE and exterminate Devon and Somerset, could this storm be the hammer-blow that destroys Gurn's Haydn collection?
Where is Superman???!? ???
I think it's too early to tell what it's going to do. Hurricanes are unpredictable. All they can do is continue to chart it's development right now.
Irma is more likely to hit Haiti/Dominican Republic and the Atlantic coast if it makes landfall anywhere at all. Texas will probably be fine (for now).
Quote from: Scion7 on September 03, 2017, 06:03:18 AM
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png)
Assuming it doesn't veer N/NE and exterminate Devon and Somerset, could this storm be the hammer-blow that destroys Gurn's Haydn collection?
Where is Superman???!? ???
Nah, Texas and Haydn are bigger than any 2 storms. Actually, it
will veer northwest quite a bit, possibly hitting the east coast of the US, but not for certain. I would say that for it to come here would be poor timing. However, we got Katrina and Rita here within the same month, so we know how to take a storm. I would be more concerned right now if I was John... :-\
8)
It is still early to have a reliable trajectory. According to the meteologists it has a fair chance to hit florida, and the odds it may hit lousiana and texas are for the time being small.
Unfortunately the climate change will make these hurricane more and more powerful. They are heat engine and the hotter the ocean gets the more energy is fed into them. Inescapable consequence of thermodynamics.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on September 03, 2017, 07:46:48 AM
Nah, Texas and Haydn are bigger than any 2 storms. Actually, it will veer northwest quite a bit, possibly hitting the east coast of the US, but not for certain. I would say that for it to come here would be poor timing. However, we got Katrina and Rita here within the same month, so we know how to take a storm. I would be more concerned right now if I was John... :-\
8)
Never mind John. He's inland. I'm 12 miles inland from the Florida coast!
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on September 03, 2017, 07:46:48 AM
Nah, Texas and Haydn are bigger than any 2 storms. Actually, it will veer northwest quite a bit, possibly hitting the east coast of the US, but not for certain. I would say that for it to come here would be poor timing. However, we got Katrina and Rita here within the same month, so we know how to take a storm. I would be more concerned right now if I was John... :-\
8)
As Jeffrey correctly points out, I'm inland and in mountainous country. 8)
Quote from: Mirror Image on September 03, 2017, 08:34:19 AM
As Jeffrey correctly points out, I'm inland and in mountainous country. 8)
If you are (as I thought) in Atlanta, I don't imagine you are out of range of a truly large hurricane. I am 175 miles from the coast, and since I have lived here we have been badly affected (rain) several times and outright run over twice (Rita and Ike). Just pointing out the possibility. Also, we are in the 400'+ above sea level, not exactly 'mountainous' but not sea level by a long shot either! :o
8)
Quote from: Jeffrey Smith on September 03, 2017, 08:14:20 AM
Never mind John. He's inland. I'm 12 miles inland from the Florida coast!
I only picked him because he had already posted in this thread. Indeed, if it decides to run over Florida, well, that's what it's gonna do. I already took part in one Florida evacuation (Ivan in 2006(?)) from Greater Tampa, and I know what a freaking ordeal it is. I wouldn't hesitate to get a head start if it's lookin' like it... :-\
8)
(https://messaging.allstate.com/resources/Allstate/redesign/img/logo_footer.png)
"I'm sorry, Mr. Gurn, but we have sent you several letters over the past 8 months strongly warning you to get flood insurance on your policy. Therefore, your $6800 claim against your Haydn music collection must be ... denied.
(https://s26.postimg.org/3s0nkez89/Gurnish.jpg)
. . . No ... NO! That's impossible!!! Nooooooooooooo . . .
Quote from: Scion7 on September 03, 2017, 10:30:53 PM
(https://messaging.allstate.com/resources/Allstate/redesign/img/logo_footer.png)
"I'm sorry, Mr. Gurn, but we have sent you several letters over the past 8 months strongly warning you to get flood insurance on your policy. Therefore, your $6800 claim against your Haydn music collection must be ... denied.
(https://s26.postimg.org/3s0nkez89/Gurnish.jpg)
. . . No ... NO! That's impossible!!! Nooooooooooooo . . .
$6800? That's just what I told my wife... >:D
The track of this thing looks interesting, once it clears that HI in the Atlantic, it looks like it's gonna hang a sharp right and bowl right into Florida. Be nice if it stayed offshore... :-\
8)
Current forcast:
French Caribbean->Porto Rico->Haiti Domincan Republic->Cuba->Florida
Wont get to Florida (it it gets there) until next Sunday
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on September 03, 2017, 08:53:07 AM
If you are (as I thought) in Atlanta, I don't imagine you are out of range of a truly large hurricane. I am 175 miles from the coast, and since I have lived here we have been badly affected (rain) several times and outright run over twice (Rita and Ike). Just pointing out the possibility. Also, we are in the 400'+ above sea level, not exactly 'mountainous' but not sea level by a long shot either! :o
8)
I don't live in Atlanta (thankfully), but I'm about 56 miles NE of the city and about 310 miles from the eastern coast. We get rain and thunderstorms, which pop up mainly in the spring through early autumn sporadically, but if the hurricane hits Charleston, SC for example, we'd get the rain, but very little else I'd imagine.
Quote from: Jeffrey Smith on September 03, 2017, 08:14:20 AM
Never mind John. He's inland. I'm 12 miles inland from the Florida coast!
Stay dry, friend!
Quote from: Mirror Image on September 04, 2017, 09:56:33 AM
I don't live in Atlanta (thankfully), but I'm about 56 miles NE of the city and about 310 miles from the eastern coast. We get rain and thunderstorms, which pop up mainly in the spring through early autumn sporadically, but if the hurricane hits Charleston, SC for example, we'd get the rain, but very little else I'd imagine.
Ah, I have a good mental picture of that area. I used to fly into Atlanta and do business, then rent a a car and drive through Athens to Newberry SC. Yes, you are back there a ways. Nice country around there too. It would be a pity, wunnit, if sumpin' was to 'appen to it... :D
8)
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on September 04, 2017, 12:19:17 PM
Ah, I have a good mental picture of that area. I used to fly into Atlanta and do business, then rent a a car and drive through Athens to Newberry SC. Yes, you are back there a ways. Nice country around there too. It would be a pity, wunnit, if sumpin' was to 'appen to it... :D
8)
Very cool, Gurn. 8) It'd be a pity if something happened to
any land of beauty.
Quote from: Mirror Image on September 04, 2017, 12:22:39 PM
Very cool, Gurn. 8) It'd be a pity if something happened to any land of beauty.
Couldn't agree more. Y'all have some damned impressive trees there, I must say. We lost a couple million acres back in Ike (2008). What a blow! :o
8)
I get it! Texas must be full of nazis and white supreamers :laugh: That's what they get for open carry
It's still too early for an accurate forecast of the track, but a little while ago the 'middle' prediction was Cuba and then into the Gulf . . . aackk! ???
Quote from: Scion7 on September 04, 2017, 12:53:21 PM
It's still too early for an accurate forecast of the track, but a little while ago the 'middle' prediction was Cuba and then into the Gulf . . . aackk! ???
What I read seemed to indicate the Gulf being a 'less likely' track. It has to do with the High in the middle of the Atlantic and the Gulf Stream. Still. Wednesday seems to be the day where they think they will have a better read. But it's a hurricane, and anything is still possible.
Quote from: Jeffrey Smith on September 03, 2017, 08:14:20 AM
Never mind John. He's inland. I'm 12 miles inland from the Florida coast!
So, Jeffrey, are you on the road yet, or in denial? Let us know when you get to Iowa... don't know anyone in Iowa? Well, you oughtta...
Seriously, amigo, it's go-time. :(
8)
Irma intensifies to an 'extremely dangerous' Category 5 hurricane on its track toward the U.S.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/04/its-becoming-more-likely-hurricane-irma-will-at-least-affect-u-s-if-not-make-landfall/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/04/its-becoming-more-likely-hurricane-irma-will-at-least-affect-u-s-if-not-make-landfall/)
Not too good, because it still can grow more.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on September 05, 2017, 05:42:24 AM
So, Jeffrey, are you on the road yet, or in denial? Let us know when you get to Iowa... don't know anyone in Iowa? Well, you oughtta...
Seriously, amigo, it's go-time. :(
8)
12 or 2 miles - it's all the same in south Florida - flat. But now with cat 5 winds....yikes! Those islands are going to get ripped apart.
Quote from: Spineur on September 05, 2017, 05:59:10 AM
Irma intensifies to an 'extremely dangerous' Category 5 hurricane on its track toward the U.S.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/04/its-becoming-more-likely-hurricane-irma-will-at-least-affect-u-s-if-not-make-landfall/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/04/its-becoming-more-likely-hurricane-irma-will-at-least-affect-u-s-if-not-make-landfall/)
Not too good, because it still can grow more.
It's predicted to undergo another eyewall replacement cycle, which will almost certainly result in the wind field growing but generally reduces the overall wind speed. Of course then if it's over deep warm water (which it is) it could re-intensify back to a larger and more damaging Category 5. Hopefully it doesn't turn into Rita 2.0.
This is not the right time for a major storm to hit Puerto Rico. That poor island has enough to worry about.
I actually haven't seen the NOAA describe a Category 5 hurricane as "extremely dangerous" since... uh.... Ike in 2008. Which killed 200 people, and it curved away from Puerto Rico in time to avoid serious loss of life there. Harvey's done some serious property damage, but only 66 confirmed deaths so far (and another 30-40 missing). Safe to say this is pretty bad news.
edit: oh and hey, another tropical wave coming off Cape Verde just got upgraded to Tropical Storm José. :-X
edit 2: and shit. Irma now "potentially catastrophic". Only one other hurricane in my lifetime got that description.
Florida has already declared a state of emergency.
Quote from: amw on September 05, 2017, 07:07:08 AMIke in 2008. Which killed 200 people,
That's my first hurricane. I stayed for Ike and fled Harvey.
Quote from: Brian on September 05, 2017, 07:18:50 AM
That's my first hurricane. I stayed for Ike and fled Harvey.
Ike kicked our asses even way up here in Nacogdoches. We lost the roof of our house and many trees. I had to take the chainsaw and tractor and spend 2 days cutting up trees fallen across the driveway and drag them off. It wasn't pretty. :-\
8)
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on September 05, 2017, 05:42:24 AM
So, Jeffrey, are you on the road yet, or in denial? Let us know when you get to Iowa... don't know anyone in Iowa? Well, you oughtta...
Seriously, amigo, it's go-time. :(
8)
The likely track is somewhere south to north through Florida, which means if I evacuated I would just get caught on the road somewhere. It's actually safer to hunker down here. Panic buying has set in with lines for gas, etc. But I have almost everything I need to tide me over for a few days at least. The exception is water, and that I can start to boil for myself over the next few days. The Publix water I use is really just filtered tap water, so it's not a real difference.
I expect to have no cellphone or wireless service after the storm, so if I seem to disappear don't be too alarmed: I will just be offline.
Quote from: Jeffrey Smith on September 05, 2017, 12:31:53 PM
The likely track is somewhere south to north through Florida, which means if I evacuated I would just get caught on the road somewhere. It's actually safer to hunker down here. Panic buying has set in with lines for gas, etc. But I have almost everything I need to tide me over for a few days at least. The exception is water, and that I can start to boil for myself over the next few days. The Publix water I use is really just filtered tap water, so it's not a real difference.
I expect to have no cellphone or wireless service after the storm, so if I seem to disappear don't be too alarmed: I will just be offline.
Careful. My friends in Houston expected to need enough supplies for 3-4 days and ultimately needed more than that. The power was out for only 48 hours or so for most of them, but they were lucky...
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on September 05, 2017, 08:06:31 AM
Ike kicked our asses even way up here in Nacogdoches. We lost the roof of our house and many trees. I had to take the chainsaw and tractor and spend 2 days cutting up trees fallen across the driveway and drag them off. It wasn't pretty.
Wow, had no idea your Ike was that bad. We didn't have much damage at all.
Quote from: Brian on September 05, 2017, 12:58:10 PM
Careful. My friends in Houston expected to need enough supplies for 3-4 days and ultimately needed more than that. The power was out for only 48 hours or so for most of them, but they were lucky...
Wow, had no idea your Ike was that bad. We didn't have much damage at all.
With us low scale flooding is possible, but mostly nearer the coast. It's wind damage and electric power outages that will be the issue. Wilma (which was a cat 1 when it passed near me) was the worst I have been through yet. That left my neighborhood with no power for a week. I was lucky, since some people had to wait over a month.
It's a cat-5 now, and has the strongest winds recorded for an Atlantic storm.
The latest projected path, courtesy of the SNWTC:
(https://s26.postimg.org/o4q7xmspl/Latest_Irma_Proj.jpg)
Who drew on that red arrow? Literally none of the forecast models are showing that possibility.
Here are the models:
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/tropical-storm-irma
Click "computer models" and "ensemble models" ... consensus is a strike on Bahamas, Cuba, and south Florida, but with some chance of a strike as far north as South Carolina.
Sorry, but the SNWTC trumps all other forecasting models. $:)
Quote from: Jeffrey Smith on September 05, 2017, 12:31:53 PM
The likely track is somewhere south to north through Florida, which means if I evacuated I would just get caught on the road somewhere. It's actually safer to hunker down here. Panic buying has set in with lines for gas, etc. But I have almost everything I need to tide me over for a few days at least. The exception is water, and that I can start to boil for myself over the next few days. The Publix water I use is really just filtered tap water, so it's not a real difference.
I expect to have no cellphone or wireless service after the storm, so if I seem to disappear don't be too alarmed: I will just be offline.
And Florida is, what, 100 miles wide? And the storm is, what 175 miles wide? Hmmm,
If the storm was to hit on Saturday as they are now predicting, and you left Wednesday. I used to go from Tampa to Nacogdoches in 19 hours flat. Even when we were outrunning Ike in '06, once we made it past Mobile AL it was smooth sailing.
Won't presume to tell you what to do (not to say I wouldn't do what you are doing), but as a professional risk assessor I have to say, you are pushing the boundaries. Best of luck to you, sending you the best vibes I have. :)
8)
Quote from: Brian on September 05, 2017, 01:45:51 PM
Who drew on that red arrow? Literally none of the forecast models are showing that possibility.
Here are the models:
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/tropical-storm-irma
Click "computer models" and "ensemble models" ... consensus is a strike on Bahamas, Cuba, and south Florida, but with some chance of a strike as far north as South Carolina.
The Weather Channel graphics showing the areas which may affected by tropical storm force winds don't say it overtly but imply that the storm will pass through South Florida and then into the Gulf on a path that aims at the stretch from Louisiana to Alabama.
Quote from: Brian on September 05, 2017, 12:58:10 PM
Careful. My friends in Houston expected to need enough supplies for 3-4 days and ultimately needed more than that. The power was out for only 48 hours or so for most of them, but they were lucky...
Wow, had no idea your Ike was that bad. We didn't have much damage at all.
We were standing looking out the back door and suddenly I told my wife "look, shingles landing in the yard, some poor bastard is losing their roof". Then I remembered, we don't have any neighbors.... :-\ Rita was as bad (in 2005). The eye passed on the other side of us and the wind blew from the opposite direction. Took care of the trees on the
other side of the driveway (which is 450 feet long). One cool thing in Ike, I was watching a power pole out the front window that was swaying like crazy, then it just snapped off at ground level. It flapped in the wind for 2-3 hours before the wires finally broke and it all came down. Nice day to have a generator. :)
8)
Quote from: Jeffrey Smith on September 05, 2017, 02:57:21 PM
The Weather Channel graphics showing the areas which may affected by tropical storm force winds don't say it overtly but imply that the storm will pass through South Florida and then into the Gulf on a path that aims at the stretch from Louisiana to Alabama.
I haven't seen a single projection that shows it further west than Apalachicola. That would be the worst case, where it didn't make landfall all the way up the west coast and the coast was on the 'dirty side'. I seem to remember one doing that a few years ago... :(
8)
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on September 05, 2017, 02:54:22 PM
And Florida is, what, 100 miles wide? And the storm is, what 175 miles wide? Hmmm,
If the storm was to hit on Saturday as they are now predicting, and you left Wednesday. I used to go from Tampa to Nacogdoches in 19 hours flat. Even when we were outrunning Ike in '06, once we made it past Mobile AL it was smooth sailing.
Won't presume to tell you what to do (not to say I wouldn't do what you are doing), but as a professional risk assessor I have to say, you are pushing the boundaries. Best of luck to you, sending you the best vibes I have. :)
8)
Problem is, all the other people who will want to leave too😋
And there are only two options: the Turnpike to Orlando or I95 north through the Atlantic coast communities. Since at this point the entire state is under threat, I would be in a traffic jam going north.
Normal driving time is about 6 hours to Jacksonville or the GA line btw.
And I do have a job to go to for the rest of the week....
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on September 05, 2017, 03:01:13 PM
I haven't seen a single projection that shows it further west than Apalachicola. That would be the worst case, where it didn't make landfall all the way up the west coast and the coast was on the 'dirty side'. I seem to remember one doing that a few years ago... :(
8)
This map suggests landfall in South Florida, then re-emerging on the Gulf Side with a second landfall on the north Gulf coast.
Quote from: Jeffrey Smith on September 05, 2017, 03:07:56 PM
Problem is, all the other people who will want to leave too😋
And there are only two options: the Turnpike to Orlando or I95 north through the Atlantic coast communities. Since at this point the entire state is under threat, I would be in a traffic jam going north.
Normal driving time is about 6 hours to Jacksonville or the GA line btw.
And I do have a job to go to for the rest of the week....
This map suggests landfall in South Florida, then re-emerging on the Gulf Side with a second landfall on the north Gulf coast.
Ah, I always took 19/98 up the coast and caught 10W in Tallahassee. If you can get gas around there you have it made. Once you get around the corner it's easy-peasy. You can turn right and go north whenever you want. I can see that 75 or 95 would be a bear though...
That is a not unreasonable projection, but there is a high pressure system that limits the amount west it can go. If it actually went as far west as Mobile, I would really be surprised. But then, as they say, it's a hurricane... :-\
8)
The latest forecast, as of 8 PM Tuesday 9/5
(https://dsx.weather.com/util/image/map/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL11_swath_1280x720.jpg?v=ap&w=1280&h=720&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0)
The purple area is The Cone of Uncertainty, meaning the center of circulation can end up anywhere marked purple.
Jeffrey
There are filter straw gadgets. Lifestraw is one (I guess Prime delivery cannot be guaranteed at this point :-\) make most water potable, even bacteria infected.
There's still time to insure that music collection !!!!!!!!!!!!
Quote from: Scion7 on September 05, 2017, 06:24:40 PM
There's still time to insure that music collection !!!!!!!!!!!!
Probably not. Insurance companies lock out new policies for events like this and won't allow you to enter into a new one until after an event like this. At this point, it's insured or it's not.
And global warming is still the elephant in the room.
That said, my wife and I have relatives in Florida and Texas.
What will happen to Loki the Red Fox (http://lokitheredfox.com/) ?
Quote from: Jeffrey Smith on September 05, 2017, 03:07:56 PM
Problem is, all the other people who will want to leave too😋
And there are only two options: the Turnpike to Orlando or I95 north through the Atlantic coast communities. Since at this point the entire state is under threat, I would be in a traffic jam going north.
That's the conundrum of evacuation: the traffic arteries aren't designed for sudden mass exodus, so for it to be done in any orderly manner, it needs to be announced (required?) earlier than the threat can likely be confirmed.
And—where does everybody go?
At the risk of repeating myself: be safe :)
Quote from: Jeffrey Smith on September 05, 2017, 05:01:16 PM
The latest forecast, as of 8 PM Tuesday 9/5
(https://dsx.weather.com/util/image/map/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL11_swath_1280x720.jpg?v=ap&w=1280&h=720&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0)
The purple area is The Cone of Uncertainty, meaning the center of circulation can end up anywhere marked purple.
It is likely too much to hope for, but it
may yet pull hard to the right, and then waft out to sea . . . .
It just went through Antigua-et-Barbuda, Saint-Barth and Saint-Martin. At the moment, there is little reliable news from these islands as there is apparently no power anywhere.
I did try to connect to RCI Guadeloupe, but for now the connection is dead. Meteo France instruments there are not responding either.
https://www.rci.fm/ (https://www.rci.fm/)
I believe the couple videos posted on twitter are fakes.
Edit: The four most solid buildings of Saint Martin destroyed
"Two teams will be coming from the mainland and another from Guadeloupe to help Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy, and we are mobilized to respond to all the difficulties. we are not aware of any human casualties, and a telephone number is going to be available to families on the mainland, and we will know more about this in two hours. have new damage, "Interior Minister Gérard Collomb said.
Sustained winds of 295 km/h (185 mph) recorded in St Martin at landfall, equalling only the 1935 Labor Day hurricane and Camille in 1969 in the Western hemisphere. The limited amount of video footage available looks pretty much like the end of the world.
https://twitter.com/kurtsiegelin/status/905403206121005058
Meanwhile overnight the projection systems have substantially improved the forecast for the United States and Cuba by shifting the storm eastward. Now the Bahamas look most prone.
(https://spacecityweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/gefs_cyclone_atlantic_24.png)
NHC cone of uncertainty still covers most of the state of Florida, but yes, hopefully it'll pick one of those paths over on the far right. Everything else has been going far right this year after all >.>
Anyone bored and online right this second can follow Delta Airlines 431, a flight from JFK stupidly attempting to land in San Juan as the hurricane winds pick up from about 20 to 60 mph.
https://www.flightradar24.com/DAL431/ec23657
Here are earlier flights that turned back:
https://www.flightradar24.com/JBU6033/ec225da
and most strikingly
https://www.flightradar24.com/JBU1053/ec21a64
Nothing to see here. Move on, it's just a liberal conspiracy intended to convince the public that climate change is real.:
http://www.newsweek.com/irma-hurricane-limbaugh-climate-change-liberal-conspiracy-trump-deep-state-659890 (http://www.newsweek.com/irma-hurricane-limbaugh-climate-change-liberal-conspiracy-trump-deep-state-659890)
It looks likely that Irma will go up the east coast of Florida.
(http://i.imgur.com/dKdo3DM.jpg)
Just listened to Radio Guadeloupe for 15 minutes: everything is destroyed at St Martin and St Barth, including steel reinforced concrete buildings. I havent heard of human casualties yet. There is plenty of looting going on, as stores are all busted and open wide.
Presumably this is what is going to happen everywhere where this mean beast goes through. Insurers are going to have to pay up big times.
Good luck. Evacuation seems like the wisest thing to do.
Pictures from the airport at St Maarten
https://twitter.com/Bondtehond/status/905425291727826946
As much as I hate saying this given the unfortunate probability that Hurricane Irma will be making its way up to Florida, people who have lived their lives in this state have known the risks involved with living there. They have weathered how many hurricanes now? Evacuation is the only logical solution to any of this. For any GMG members living in Florida, please be safe. My only hope is many people have relatives in nearby states that they can stay with until this storm clears.
https://www.youtube.com/v/UUzmRxRRnHM
Quote from: drogulus on September 06, 2017, 08:59:07 AM
https://www.youtube.com/v/UUzmRxRRnHM
Left-wing conspiracy... :D
8)
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on September 06, 2017, 09:44:03 AM
Left-wing conspiracy... :D
8)
Well, if it is not a fake-news hoax, then it
must be a liberal conspiracy, generated by deep-state bureaucrats at NOAA and directed by the illuminati. It's headed right for the Republicans! What more proof do you need?
Quote from: Scarpia on September 06, 2017, 09:57:07 AM
Well, if it is not a fake-news hoax, then it must be a liberal conspiracy, generated by deep-state bureaucrats at NOAA and directed by the illuminati. It's headed right for the Republicans! What more proof do you need?
I don't think it's any coincidence that 2 of the biggest Red States, Texas and Florida, are gonna take it in the shorts with these 2 media-generated wind storms. Seriously, how could one choke down a coincidence that large? ::)
8)
Thanks, Obama.
Quote from: Brian on September 06, 2017, 07:18:20 AM
Anyone bored and online right this second can follow Delta Airlines 431, a flight from JFK stupidly attempting to land in San Juan as the hurricane winds pick up from about 20 to 60 mph.
https://www.flightradar24.com/DAL431/ec23657
Wow, major kudos to the forecasting, traffic control, and flight crew teams at Delta for pulling this off. Not only did the flight land safely, it took off with a full load of evacuating passengers and successfully escaped during a brief gap in the storm. Unloaded and loaded passengers in San Juan in just 30 minutes flat.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJDRcEMWAAAzVwc.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJDml8eWAAAvFuM.jpg)
One of the more impressive feats in recent commercial airliner history.
Quote from: Brian on September 06, 2017, 10:55:03 AM
Wow, major kudos to the forecasting, traffic control, and flight crew teams at Delta for pulling this off. Not only did the flight land safely, it took off with a full load of evacuating passengers and successfully escaped during a brief gap in the storm. Unloaded and loaded passengers in San Juan in just 30 minutes flat.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJDRcEMWAAAzVwc.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJDml8eWAAAvFuM.jpg)
One of the more impressive feats in recent commercial airliner history.
Indeed.
https://www.youtube.com/v/XoMRueJ17Rc
If this hits Mar-a-Lago dead on I'll sacrifice a captive to Quetzalcoatl, the god of hurricanes and mole sauce. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)
Quote from: Scarpia on September 06, 2017, 09:57:07 AM
Well, if it is not a fake-news hoax, then it must be a liberal conspiracy, generated by deep-state bureaucrats at NOAA and directed by the illuminati. It's headed right for the Republicans! What more proof do you need?
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on September 06, 2017, 10:26:47 AM
I don't think it's any coincidence that 2 of the biggest Red States, Texas and Florida, are gonna take it in the shorts with these 2 media-generated wind storms. Seriously, how could one choke down a coincidence that large? ::)
8)
Cue snyprrr ;D
Quote from: drogulus on September 06, 2017, 11:38:11 AM
If this hits Mar-a-Lago dead on I'll sacrifice a captive to Quetzalcoatl, the god of hurricanes and mole sauce. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)
;D :D ;D
Sarge
Quote from: drogulus on September 06, 2017, 11:38:11 AM
If this hits Mar-a-Lago dead on I'll sacrifice a captive to Quetzalcoatl, the god of hurricanes and mole sauce.
That would be totally freaking awesome. Lay that sumbitch right out flat. :D :D
8)
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on September 06, 2017, 11:55:13 AM
That would be totally freaking awesome. Lay that sumbitch right out flat. :D :D
8)
Well we all enjoy seeing our biases confirmed. Which is why I will always treasure this bit of revealing bile.
Quote from: Ken B on September 06, 2017, 11:59:38 AM
Well we all enjoy seeing our biases confirmed. Which is why I will always treasure this bit of revealing bile.
Talk about the pot calling the kettle black...
Quote from: Ken B on September 06, 2017, 11:59:38 AM
Well we all enjoy seeing our biases confirmed. Which is why I will always treasure this bit of revealing bile.
You have no idea...
8)
dagnabitt - now it appears like it might curve back my way!
GO TO TEXAS! THEY ALREADY ARE RUBBLE - CUT OUR LOSSES - GO TO TEXAS, STORM GREMLIN !!!!!
Quote from: Scarpia on September 06, 2017, 01:03:26 PM
Talk about the pot calling the kettle black...
I hope the storm shifts out to sea. I guess not everyone here does.
Quote from: drogulus on September 06, 2017, 11:38:11 AMIf this hits Mar-a-Lago dead on I'll sacrifice a captive to Quetzalcoatl, the god of hurricanes and mole sauce. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)
Aww, now you know that if the storm hits Mar-a-Lago Trump will devise some scheme where the Army Corp of Engineers rebuilds it for him, and he leases the land to them and charges rent during the construction, then sues them because the gold leaf isn't thick enough. Better that it steers clear. :)
Quote from: Ken B on September 06, 2017, 01:47:59 PM
I hope the storm shifts out to sea. I guess not everyone here does.
of course everyone does - but - the reality is, that possibility is virtually nil
Quote from: Ken B on September 06, 2017, 01:47:59 PM
I hope the storm shifts out to sea. I guess not everyone here does.
Quote from: Scion7 on September 06, 2017, 02:25:20 PM
of course everyone does - but - the reality is, that possibility is virtually nil
And because it is virtually nil, most of us, Ken, are hoping for the most positive outcome: if it
has to hit Florida, make it a strike on Mar-a-Lago. That will teach Trump something about the God he publicly says he believes in (cynically so, in order to appease his evangelical supporters).
Sarge
Quote from: Scarpia on September 06, 2017, 02:19:01 PM
Aww, now you know that if the storm hits Mar-a-Lago Trump will devise some scheme where the Army Corp of Engineers rebuilds it for him, and he leases the land to them and charges rent during the construction, then sues them because the gold leaf isn't thick enough. Better that it steers clear. :)
Yeah, my bad too: I forgot we weren't dealing with a mere mortal... :-\
8)
Quote from: Spineur on September 06, 2017, 08:36:33 AM
.... I havent heard of human casualties yet....
For the time being: 10 fatalities for a population of 40000. Scaling to the population of Florida...
Since some of you mentioned Mar el Lago, you should know that Donald Trump owns a 24 millions USD property on St Martin. There is probably not much of it left.
Quote from: Sergeant Rock on September 06, 2017, 02:32:44 PM
And because it is virtually nil, most of us, Ken, are hoping for the most positive outcome: if it has to hit Florida, make it a strike on Mar-a-Lago. That will teach Trump something about the God he publicly says he believes in (cynically so, in order to appease his evangelical supporters).
Sarge
Well Sarge, that wouldn't explain the triumphalist tone.
I find the totemism odd. Lago was a failing resort, Trump bought it and now a lot of people still work there. But we can hope the storm hits a populated area, and wipes out those (obviously expendable) jobs, because , well because why exactly? Because it's a symbol in some people's minds of Trump? Anything as long as it's a metaphorical slap at someone you don't like? I guess there'd be hopes to drop Trump Tower all over downtown New York by the same logic, next time we see a storm off the Atlantic seaboard.
But let's step back. If one's attitude is wishing disasters on people to
learn them a thing or two, then I suggest an attitude adjustment is in order. No matter who is being learned that thing.
Or maybe it is something called dark humor.
I see only one person on this thread revealing genuine bile, and it is not Gurn or Sarge.
Guys - This isn't really helping people like Jeffrey and myself who are possibly in the direct path of the storm. We're stressed - lines for everything, people driving erratically, fear of a 150 mph+ winds and if the roof will hold, worry about flooding, will the kids be ok, etc. I'm not asking for pity, but no one here wishes this storm to hit anyone. The farther away it goes the better. Tomorrow we put up shutters, and that by then we will have decided whether to evacuate north or not. A major hurricane will probably knock out power for at least 5-7 days, perhaps longer. .
Friend of mine has spent 5 hours driving from Orlando to Gainesville today. If you want out, get out.
Quote from: mc ukrneal on September 06, 2017, 05:28:09 PM
Guys - This isn't really helping people like Jeffrey and myself who are possibly in the direct path of the storm. We're stressed - lines for everything, people driving erratically, fear of a 150 mph+ winds and if the roof will hold, worry about flooding, will the kids be ok, etc. I'm not asking for pity, but no one here wishes this storm to hit anyone. The farther away it goes the better. Tomorrow we put up shutters, and that by then we will have decided whether to evacuate north or not. A major hurricane will probably knock out power for at least 5-7 days, perhaps longer. .
Here's for hoping that Irma is downgraded to a mere rainstorm. Be safe, Neal. You and Jeffrey are both in my thoughts.
Mandatory evacuations now extending to Dade County so yeah. Miami area peeps who can't get out, please find a concrete reinforced building to stay in and stay safe. Normally I would say get to high ground but lol florida.
Some parts of Puerto Rico may be without power for 4-6 months, and first reports of casualties from St Martin and St Barts are trickling out. Irma has also now maintained wind speeds above 185mph for longer than any other Atlantic cyclone, instead of the predicted fluctuations in intensity.
edit: some experts are now publicly talking about a worst case scenario of the eyewall moving up the east coast of Florida, hitting Miami metro, Space Coast, Daytona Beach, Jacksonville, and then up to Savannah and Charleston, as a Cat 4-5. At this point, with the size of the storm, even if it stays well offshore and curves off into the Atlantic eastern Florida could be raked with Category 1 winds and a 3-4 meter storm surge.
Maybe there's a giant patch of really cold water somewhere near Florida that everyone forgot about?? Hopefully??
Quote from: Brian on September 06, 2017, 06:02:58 PM
Friend of mine has spent 5 hours driving from Orlando to Gainesville today. If you want out, get out.
I think you could go faster on foot...
Quote from: Jeffrey Smith on September 06, 2017, 06:26:06 PM
I think you could go faster on foot...
But then, there are the gators . . . be safe, dear fellow! (You, too,
Neal!)
Friends of mine in West Palm have evac'ed to 'Bama (he's retired law enforcement, so he's always had A Plan, bless him).
Be safe Jeffrey, Neal and all GMGers potentially in Irma's path.
Please check in when you can!
What's happening right now:
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/154730_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png)
I would be very, very worried about the Bahamas. Especially after seeing what happened to Barbuda.
Quote from: Brian on September 07, 2017, 08:37:50 AM
I would be very, very worried about the Bahamas. Especially after seeing what happened to Barbuda.
Inagua Island seems to be right on the path. It seems to make a big difference whether the eye goes right over you or some 50 miles away. Damage to Puerto Rico isnt nearly as bad as Barbuda, St Martin & St Barth.
Computer models havent changed their prediction in the past 24 hours. It looks like its going to hit Key Largo and the Everglades. Unfortunately, Miami is still within the error bar.
I just heard some reporting on the French radio RTL, an interview with someone in Guadeloupe, which is part of France. The description of the devastation was of course horrible to hear, but also bad was what she saw after the storm had calmed. She said she left her apartment and went into the streets to find gangs were looting everything in sight.
I must say I had no clear idea about the scale of this till I heard the French reporter say that the storm is "grand comme la France" - as big as France.
Quote from: HIPster on September 07, 2017, 08:09:15 AM
Be safe Jeffrey, Neal and all GMGers potentially in Irma's path.
Please check in when you can!
+1
Quote from: Mandryka on September 07, 2017, 08:56:32 AM
I just heard some reporting on the French radio RTL, an interview with someone in Guadeloupe. The description of the devastation was of course horrible to hear, but also bad was what she saw after the storm had calmed. She said she left her apartment and went into the streets to find gangs were looting everything in sight.
Yes this is true. The islands are 95% destroyed, including the fancy mansions of St Barth. They have already restored the mobile phone networks and St Martin airport has been cleared and should be operational tomorrow morning. An airbridge from the Guadeloupe is about to start. Their first priority is to get the water network back up. Electricity is going to take many weeks. Then reconstructing all the building...
Quote from: Spineur on September 07, 2017, 09:03:14 AM
Yes this is true. The islands are 95% destroyed, including the fancy mansions of St Barth. They have already restored the mobile phone networks and St Martin airport has been cleared and should be operational tomorrow morning. An airbridge from the Guadeloupe is about to start. Their first priority is to get the water network back up. Electricity is going to take many weeks. Then reconstructing all the building...
Someone on RTL said that the problem isn't with the mobile phone networks, it's the difficulty of charging up your phone!
Quote from: Mandryka on September 07, 2017, 09:05:52 AM
Someone on RTL said that the problem isn't with the mobile phone networks, it's the difficulty of charging up your phone!
I keep a hand crank light in my car, that can charge cell phones via usb.
I am luckily far away from any hurricane zone but this is leading me to re-assess my disaster readiness prep. It's not so much the disaster as being without power etc afterwards that I think you need to have something for. I have 3 or so days food and water, water proof matches, candles, some bleach, some blankets, some batteries, portable shovel, a decent first aid kit (with tourniquet). Wouldn't be nearly enough for anything like what we are seeing.
Shutters are up. Talk about reality in your face....
Quote from: mc ukrneal on September 07, 2017, 09:37:22 AM
Shutters are up. Talk about reality in your face....
Good luck my friend. I just heard there were special "hurricane grade shutters". Pretty frightening stuff.
Quote from: Spineur on September 07, 2017, 10:10:55 AM
Good luck my friend. I just heard there were special "hurricane grade shutters". Pretty frightening stuff.
Yes. They are code in many places now. My parents have a condo on the gulf side, and just last year the complex had to upgrade -- good thing! They are ground floor so I expect it to flood anyway. Fortunately it's empty this month.
Are Jose and Katia going to have their own threads too?
Quote from: Mandryka on September 07, 2017, 09:05:52 AM
Someone on RTL said that the problem isn't with the mobile phone networks, it's the difficulty of charging up your phone!
The problem with cellphone networks (and other wireless) is that towers normally are powered off the general electric grid. They have backup batteries but those are really meant for short term outages. So in a situation like this, the transmission towers will go out and the cellphone will be useless because of lack of signal even if charged.
A similar problem with gas stations: a station needs electric power to pump gas.
Quote from: Mandryka on September 07, 2017, 08:56:32 AM
I just heard some reporting on the French radio RTL, an interview with someone in Guadeloupe, which is part of France. The description of the devastation was of course horrible to hear, but also bad was what she saw after the storm had calmed. She said she left her apartment and went into the streets to find gangs were looting everything in sight.
I must say I had no clear idea about the scale of this till I heard the French reporter say that the storm is "grand comme la France" - as big as France.
The outer bands cover an enormous area, but the truly dangerous weather is concentrated in a smaller area. Hurricane force winds extend about fifty miles on either side of the eye, tropical force winds go about fifty or a hundred miles further out. That's the area to concerned with. And the highest winds--now estimated at about 175 mph--are usually only at the very core, the eyewall.
However a hurricane can spawn tornadoes very easily meaning even areas at the edge can get short but very intense winds.
And thanks to everyone for the good wishes. I will report in as and when I can. It looks like the truly stressful day will be Sunday.
Irma is weakening despite the warmer oceanic conditions because it is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, according to NOAA. Now forecast to drop down to Category 4 over the next 36-48 hours. Central pressure is also rising according to the latest report (after previously dropping in spite of the reduction in wind speed) so the storm could weaken even more than is forecast. Hopefully anyway.
However, the wind field is expanding, as tends to happen with eyewall replacement cycles. It was a series of those that brought Sandy to 1,200 miles in diameter and made it so devastating despite being "only" a category 3 storm. Luckily I don't think Irma has the space to expand that much due to atmospheric conditions but yeah.
Updated trajectory forecast indicate that Irma would progress upward through the center of Florida, not the costal area.
Edit: José is now cat 4.
Quote from: Spineur on September 08, 2017, 04:27:33 AM
Updated trajectory forecast indicate that Irma would progress upward through the center of Florida, not the costal area.
Is that "good" news because over land it will fade, or is it bad news because it will hit more populated stuff harder?
My Daytona friends are evacuating even as I type.
Hurricane Jose projected track:
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL122017_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/150338_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png)
Hurricane Katia projected track:
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132017_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/150332_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png)
Quote from: Ken B on September 08, 2017, 06:45:12 AM
Is that "good" news because over land it will fade, or is it bad news because it will hit more populated stuff harder?
I really dont know. The width of this monster is twice that of Florida ! On the other hand, the effects of these storm are nonlinear. If the winds speed could drop below say 140 mph or less, it would make a huge difference.
It's slightly better news. If it tracks west of Miami the metro area will see less severe wind (probably closer to Category 1 than Category 4) and the storm will weaken more rapidly over land. That said, could still cause Wilma levels of damage, so it's not exactly good news, but it's also not the worst-case scenario, which would be if it hugs the east coast of Florida and generates 6m storm surges as far north as South Carolina in the process.
It's inevitably going to turn northwest rather than heading into the Gulf of Mexico according to NOAA, which has been pretty accurate so far. I guess the "other" worst-case scenario is that it could make this turn on the other side of Florida, as e.g. Donna in 1960 did, and bring the heaviest storm surge and winds to the west coast.
This latest eyewall replacement cycle has extended the hurricane-force wind field to 70 miles, which is also approximately the width of Florida itself.* So it's kind of hard to find any good scenarios there, tbh. It's possible Irma will undergo another eyewall replacement cycle before it makes landfall and weaken in intensity more significantly, but there's really no way to predict that unfortunately.
As well, the significant wind shear that was supposed to stop José from reaching major hurricane strength has failed to develop. It will probably track to the north before making landfall anywhere, but a second Category 4+ hurricane in a week is undoubtedly scary.
* Edit because I'm bad at math: That's 70 miles out from the eye, in every direction, which is actually twice the width of Florida itself. Good thing I don't work for anywhere that does hurricane predictions, I guess. :-[
One thing to note is that, if Irma goes straight up the middle of Florida, the east coast will be spared the worst winds and storm surges but it will not be spared the worst rainfall. Even on that note, though, Florida is comparatively lucky in that Irma moving relatively quickly, especially compared to Harvey getting caught between two high pressure areas and parking on top of Houston for days.
The eye of Irma has grown to 46 miles wide. This will spread hurricane-force winds over an almost 200-mile area and the strongest (Cat 4+) winds basically everywhere in the direct path of the eye. So at this point every potential track is catastrophic unless it weakens dramatically in the next day due to internal dynamics, and since it's just completed an eyewall replacement cycle, internal dynamics are actually more favourable to strengthening. :/
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJNCgp8XYAAPhBA.jpg)
Mandatory evacuations now for communities on Lake Okeechobee.
8-12 inches of rain expected throughout Florida and probably Georgia, North Carolina & Tennessee. Isolated totals of 16-20 inches possible in some areas. At least Florida still has some giant swamps to soak up rainfall, instead of being entirely made of concrete like Houston is, but yeah, once the winds drop rainfall is still going to be a threat for a couple of days.
Quote from: amw on September 08, 2017, 07:49:50 AMand since it's just completed an eyewall replacement cycle, internal dynamics are actually more favourable to strengthening. :/
.....and it's strengthening. 150mph -> 155mph, 927mb -> 925mb. Highest storm surge warnings are now for SW Florida and southern Dade County.
Could be back at category 5 by the time it brushes Cuba. I'm seeing models forecasting pressure could drop below 900 before it gets to Florida. https://twitter.com/spann/status/906213861929492482
Aye, if the eye stays over the water, it is now approaching very warm water, which will mean strengthening.
This seems relevant. Close all interior doors during Irma
https://disastersafety.org/ibhs-news-releases/shut-the-doors-on-hurricane-irma/?utm_content=buffer9bbc0&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer (https://disastersafety.org/ibhs-news-releases/shut-the-doors-on-hurricane-irma/?utm_content=buffer9bbc0&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer)
The upward turn has started:
High confidence forecast; all 51 members of the Euro ensemble bring Irma up through the FL Peninsula
Quote from: amw on September 08, 2017, 07:49:50 AMAt least Florida still has some giant swamps to soak up rainfall, instead of being entirely made of concrete like Houston is
That's an exaggeration. Houston is a mostly a low density quasi-suburb with a lot of green space. The main problem is lack of restraint in building in flood planes and former swampland so that the non permeable surfaces exist have a strong effect.
Irma is a Category 5 again. The eye is contracting (now 35-40 miles) and central pressure has risen to 930 mbar, which could be a sign of weakening due to interaction with the Cuban mainland. However, the subtropical ridge has lifted and Irma is starting to make the long-forecast northwest turn which will bring it back into warmer waters and towards Florida. So, probably not going to spend enough time over Cuba to weaken significantly.
The first rain and wind bands are hitting South Florida now with 50 mph wind gusts, as anyone still there who hasn't evacuated is probably well aware of by now. Probably stay inside. >.>
Just saw this thing made it back to Cat 5 and thought I'd stop by and check in here on our FL members! (Why hasn't the title been changed though? It's definitely not TX with the bullseye this time!)
Y'all are on my mind heavily right now - I will be hoping and praying for the best of all possible outcomes for you, your family, and your homes.
I know all too well exactly what this feels like.
The eye of Rita passed over my parents' house and I remember so clearly us moving everything of consequence up to the 2nd floor, boarding up, loading up what we really wanted in the car, and then driving away not knowing if anything would be there when we got back.
Literally the worst, saddest, most helpless feeling in the world.
And then the next day sitting in a Ruby Tuesday's in Shreveport watching Geraldo Rivera getting blown away around the corner from where we lived, surreal - ugh!
Luckily we just came back to a bunch of shingles gone, one corner of a room with a little leak/insulation falling, and a downed fence. After confirmed 145 mph gusts and 125 sustained wind in the neighborhood.
Hurricane code is a real (and effective) thing on the Gulf Coast, and especially in Florida.
Ask my parents and they will tell you any day they will take a few Ritas before a Harvey (they got 4 inches of water last week and that will be a 2 month long or more cleanup/repair process for them, flood/water damage is many orders of magnitude more awful than pure wind damage IMHO).
That said, Irma is a witch, certainly any low-lying areas on the coast for sure may get real with storm surge, other places - it can all depend on luck sometimes with the wind and exactly which bands cross your path.
I do hope all of you are getting out indeed though. I sure was glad we did every time!! Having a sleepable bed, hot food, power, and AC will really help lower your stress level afterward so you can focus on dealing with FEMA/insurance/recovery. Rita and Ike were each 2 weeks without power for our area due to the sheer amount of trees/major lines down, miserable for those who stayed. My brother stayed in a sturdy building with some friends during Rita so they could help others after, but they ended up having to chainsaw themselves out for hours the next day first. The whole area in general was just totally nonfunctional and shut down.
I'm sad though that I don't have like, a souvenir shirt or something that says "I survived the Hurricane Rita/Ike evacuation!" Both were memorable and fairly horrible affairs, involving no less than 12-15 hrs. in the car to travel a 3 hr. distance, peppered with pit stops in the middle of the night to rural convenience store restrooms that had seen about 100x their usual traffic. But, driving a highway in contraflow is pretty fun. 8) And in the end, it was definitely worth it since it was a direct hit for us.
Please update us when you can, whether you go or stay etc! I will keep checking in and hoping for the best for all of you!
Cuba appears to have softened Irma up more significantly than expected: wind speed is down to 130 mph and pressure up to 937 mbar. As of 25 minutes ago, the eye was back over water, but I guess that's finally some good news for Florida.
It will certainly undergo another intensification once it crosses the strait towards Florida, but chances are it wouldn't intensify all the way back to a Category 5. Forecast seems to be for a strong Category 4 landfall at about 150mph on the Keys sometime tomorrow, by which time there will hopefully be no one left except the NWS Key West team in their hurricane-proof bunker of a weather station, followed by a trip up the coast towards Cape Coral/Fort Myers. Miami area seems likely to be spared the worst storm surge and heaviest winds, but still with plenty of flooding from rain.