Hurricane Irma - the final blow to Texas? [closed-see new thread]

[kishnevi]

And Florida is, what, 100 miles wide? And the storm is, what 175 miles wide?  Hmmm,

If the storm was to hit on Saturday as they are now predicting, and you left Wednesday. I used to go from Tampa to Nacogdoches in 19 hours flat. Even when we were outrunning Ike in '06, once we made it past Mobile AL it was smooth sailing.

Won't presume to tell you what to do (not to say I wouldn't do what you are doing), but as a professional risk assessor I have to say, you are pushing the boundaries. Best of luck to you, sending you the best vibes I have.

Problem is, all the other people who will want to leave too😋
And there are only two options: the Turnpike to Orlando or I95 north through the Atlantic coast communities. Since at this point the entire state is under threat,  I would be in a traffic jam going north.

Normal driving time is about 6 hours to Jacksonville or the GA line btw.
And I do have a job to go to for the rest of the week....

I haven't seen a single projection that shows it further west than Apalachicola.  That would be the worst case, where it didn't make landfall all the way up the west coast and the coast was on the 'dirty side'. I seem to remember one doing that a few years ago...

This map suggests landfall in South Florida, then re-emerging on the Gulf Side with a second landfall on the north Gulf coast.

[Gurn Blanston]

Problem is, all the other people who will want to leave too😋
And there are only two options: the Turnpike to Orlando or I95 north through the Atlantic coast communities. Since at this point the entire state is under threat,  I would be in a traffic jam going north.

Normal driving time is about 6 hours to Jacksonville or the GA line btw.
And I do have a job to go to for the rest of the week....

This map suggests landfall in South Florida, then re-emerging on the Gulf Side with a second landfall on the north Gulf coast.

Ah, I always took 19/98 up the coast and caught 10W in Tallahassee. If you can get gas around there you have it made. Once you get around the corner it's easy-peasy. You can turn right and go north whenever you want. I can see that 75 or 95 would be a bear though...

That is a not unreasonable projection, but there is a high pressure system that limits the amount west it can go. If it actually went as far west as Mobile, I would really be surprised. But then, as they say, it's a hurricane...

[kishnevi]

The latest forecast, as of 8 PM Tuesday 9/5

The purple area is The Cone of Uncertainty, meaning the center of circulation can end up anywhere marked purple.

[Ken B]

Jeffrey
There are filter straw gadgets. Lifestraw is one (I guess Prime delivery cannot be guaranteed at this point  ) make most water potable, even bacteria infected.

[Scion7]

There's still time to insure that music collection !!!!!!!!!!!!

[mc ukrneal]

There's still time to insure that music collection !!!!!!!!!!!!

Probably not. Insurance companies lock out new policies for events like this and won't allow you to enter into a new one until after an event like this. At this point, it's insured or it's not.

[geralmar]

And global warming is still the elephant in the room.

That said, my wife and I have relatives in Florida and Texas. 

[71 dB]

What will happen to Loki the Red Fox ?

[Karl Henning]

Problem is, all the other people who will want to leave too😋
And there are only two options: the Turnpike to Orlando or I95 north through the Atlantic coast communities. Since at this point the entire state is under threat,  I would be in a traffic jam going north.

That's the conundrum of evacuation:  the traffic arteries aren't designed for sudden mass exodus, so for it to be done in any orderly manner, it needs to be announced (required?) earlier than the threat can likely be confirmed.

And—where does everybody go?

At the risk of repeating myself: be safe 

[Karl Henning]

The latest forecast, as of 8 PM Tuesday 9/5


The purple area is The Cone of Uncertainty, meaning the center of circulation can end up anywhere marked purple.

It is likely too much to hope for, but it may yet pull hard to the right, and then waft out to sea . . . .

[Spineur]

It just went through Antigua-et-Barbuda, Saint-Barth and Saint-Martin.  At the moment, there is little reliable news from these islands as there is apparently no power anywhere.
I did try to connect to RCI Guadeloupe, but for now the connection is dead.  Meteo France instruments there are not responding either.

https://www.rci.fm/

I believe the couple videos posted on twitter are fakes.

Edit: The four most solid buildings of Saint Martin destroyed

"Two teams will be coming from the mainland and another from Guadeloupe to help Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy, and we are mobilized to respond to all the difficulties. we are not aware of any human casualties, and a telephone number is going to be available to families on the mainland, and we will know more about this in two hours. have new damage, "Interior Minister Gérard Collomb said.

[amw]

Sustained winds of 295 km/h (185 mph) recorded in St Martin at landfall, equalling only the 1935 Labor Day hurricane and Camille in 1969 in the Western hemisphere. The limited amount of video footage available looks pretty much like the end of the world.

https://twitter.com/kurtsiegelin/status/905403206121005058

[Brian]

Meanwhile overnight the projection systems have substantially improved the forecast for the United States and Cuba by shifting the storm eastward. Now the Bahamas look most prone.

[amw]

NHC cone of uncertainty still covers most of the state of Florida, but yes, hopefully it'll pick one of those paths over on the far right. Everything else has been going far right this year after all >.>

[Brian]

Anyone bored and online right this second can follow Delta Airlines 431, a flight from JFK stupidly attempting to land in San Juan as the hurricane winds pick up from about 20 to 60 mph.

https://www.flightradar24.com/DAL431/ec23657

Here are earlier flights that turned back:
https://www.flightradar24.com/JBU6033/ec225da
and most strikingly
https://www.flightradar24.com/JBU1053/ec21a64

[The new erato]

Nothing to see here. Move on, it's just a liberal conspiracy intended to convince the public that climate change is real.:

http://www.newsweek.com/irma-hurricane-limbaugh-climate-change-liberal-conspiracy-trump-deep-state-659890

[drogulus]

     It looks likely that Irma will go up the east coast of Florida.

     

     

[Spineur]

Just listened to Radio Guadeloupe for 15 minutes: everything is destroyed at St Martin and St Barth, including steel reinforced concrete buildings.  I havent heard of human casualties yet.  There is plenty of looting going on, as stores are all busted and open wide.

Presumably this is what is going to happen everywhere where this mean beast goes through.  Insurers are going to have to pay up big times.

Good luck.  Evacuation seems like the wisest thing to do.

[Brian]

Pictures from the airport at St Maarten
https://twitter.com/Bondtehond/status/905425291727826946

[Mirror Image]

As much as I hate saying this given the unfortunate probability that Hurricane Irma will be making its way up to Florida, people who have lived their lives in this state have known the risks involved with living there. They have weathered how many hurricanes now? Evacuation is the only logical solution to any of this. For any GMG members living in Florida, please be safe. My only hope is many people have relatives in nearby states that they can stay with until this storm clears.