Countdown to Extinction: The 2016 Presidential Election

[Ken B]

I have to say I am less alarmed by a Trump win than my friends, or most GMGers. Not because I think he has merit as a president, but because I don't think he'll be effective. He won't be able to do a fraction of what he says he'll do.  A lot of his critics (rightly) mock his declaration "believe me, I'll do it" when he is challenged. Yet many critics seem to implicitly believe he can. I do not. Now I admit if the issue is having pink sheets in all the rooms of his hotel I believe he could do it and I would believe him, because he really is the boss, there is no other locus of authority. But government isn't like that. For the great majority of things he needs to build a coalition. He needs people to agree. Does he really strike you as being good at getting agreement from congress and governors? Nor will he be able to bully them, as he will have no coat-tails, no mandate. He will be unpopular from day 1, and less popular as time goes by. Most of his party and nearly all its leadership loathe him. The press will not sweep his behavior or gaffes or twists and turns under the carpet. And finally he will be impeachable in a way Clinton will never be. These are not arguments for Trump. They are arguments that the very shortcomings that make him a crappy pick will probably make him a futile president. Bad but not end of the republic bad as some fear. Most of us distrust most of what he says. Why trust his boasts?

[Karl Henning]

I have to say I am less alarmed by a Trump win than my friends, or most GMGers. Not because I think he has merit as a president, but because I don't think he'll be effective. He won't be able to do a fraction of what he says he'll do.  A lot of his critics (rightly) mock his declaration "believe me, I'll do it" when he is challenged. Yet many critics seem to implicitly believe he can. I do not. Now I admit if the issue is having pink sheets in all the rooms of his hotel I believe he could do it and I would believe him, because he really is the boss, there is no other locus of authority. But government isn't like that. For the great majority of things he needs to build a coalition. He needs people to agree. Does he really strike you as being good at getting agreement from congress and governors? Nor will he be able to bully them, as he will have no coat-tails, no mandate. He will be unpopular from day 1, and less popular as time goes by. Most of his party and nearly all its leadership loathe him. The press will not sweep his behavior or gaffes or twists and turns under the carpet. And finally he will be impeachable in a way Clinton will never be. These are not arguments for Trump. They are arguments that the very shortcomings that make him a crappy pick will probably make him a futile president. Bad but not end of the republic bad as some fear. Most of us distrust most of what he says. Why trust his boasts?

I see all that.  Yet I wonder to what irreparable degree the esteem of the United States takes a deep hit.  I almost think that one need be impractically isolationist not to take that into consideration.  That the American people should elect...THAT. We'll be a punchline for a century.  "You thought a Roman emperor making his horse a senator was bad ...."

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[Herman]

A few minutes ago I read and enjoyed this thought: There is literally nothing more ironic than a white, straight, billionaire thinking the system is rigged against him.

Kellyanne C. changed the phrasing. It's rigged alright. Against "the little guy".

You know. The little guy with a Boeing 737 in his backyard.

The billionaire little guy.

[Ken B]

I see all that.  Yet I wonder to what irreparable degree the esteem of the United States takes a deep hit.  I almost think that one need be impractically isolationist not to take that into consideration.  That the American people should elect...THAT. We'll be a punchline for a century.  "You thought a Roman emperor making his horse a senator was bad ...."

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Oh yeah, for sure. Gore Vidal said a brilliant thing. It isn't true in the sense he meant but in the sense he didn't it's the deepest observation on American politics I know. "Presidents are the men we hire to do the commercials." Trump is a dreadful commercial.

[André]

Joseph Stiglitz addresses the very real issue of the electorate's frustration with its declining real income over the past decades. Interesting article.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-candidacy-message-to-political-leaders-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2016-10

[PerfectWagnerite]

No denying that.

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They put the chance at around an NFL kicker muffing a 30 yard fg.

[Madiel]

Nate Silver currently puts Trump's chances at around 15%.  However, things aren't looking great right now:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-may-depress-republican-turnout-spelling-disaster-for-the-gop/

[PerfectWagnerite]

Nate Silver currently puts Trump's chances at around 15%.  However, things aren't looking great right now:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-may-depress-republican-turnout-spelling-disaster-for-the-gop/

They say 538 is the more conservative estimate. Others have Hil above 90.

[Ken B]

They say 538 is the more conservative estimate. Others have Hil above 90.

There's a lot of bad stuff in the wikileaks, but none of it is in emails directly from her -- so far. Unless something like that turns up she's a safe bet. But anyone who really believes they can meaningfully estimate 85% versus 90% is kidding themselves.

Again, there are other options, especially for quondam republican voters.

[zamyrabyrd]

I see all that.  Yet I wonder to what irreparable degree the esteem of the United States takes a deep hit.  I almost think that one need be impractically isolationist not to take that into consideration.  That the American people should elect...THAT. We'll be a punchline for a century.  "You thought a Roman emperor making his horse a senator was bad ...."

Widespread resentment and actual hatred of the US began from the invasion of Iraq - the big guy on the block flexing his muscle again. When it ended in a quagmire, there was only sniggering. Now they can only say, "We told you so".  More and more I have come to believe that the conspiracy to keep certain people in power crosses party lines. Maybe Gore should have won the election in 2000.

[Jo498]

I see all that.  Yet I wonder to what irreparable degree the esteem of the United States takes a deep hit.  I almost think that one need be impractically isolationist not to take that into consideration.  That the American people should elect...THAT. We'll be a punchline for a century. 

I think the reputation has suffered considerably by having Trump as a candidate... Although as someone pointed out already the reputation has suffered for obvious (and "harder") reasons since 2003 or so.

For me, the scary thing is that someone like Trump can become candidate against all predictions. And that in addition to her hawkish foreign policy Hilary seems to have an extremely polarizing effect on the US population and will mean 4 or maybe 8 years of "business as usual" so that the structures, internal chasms and grievances among the US populace that led to the Trump candidacy will hardly improve at all.
It seems that all bets are off what kind of worse-than-Trump-demagogue or extremist could take Trump's place in 2020 or 2024...

[Karl Henning]

I am not sure I buy the "US prestige is already so compromised, that El Presidente Tupé will be nothing worse" argument. My brother's voting that way because he feels the system needs to be razed right down before it can improve. I think he's mistaken on a couple of points, but I respect that he understands that a vote for El Tupé is a race to the bottom.

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[James]

He won't be able to do a fraction of what he says he'll do.

You're right. That's the pattern. All prior candidates say more than what they can realistically achieve. It's all part of the game & rhetoric, say anything to get in. Look at Obama, change this, change that, change, change, change; he got in .. he changed nothing. He did inherit a large giant mess. Now why would anyone want this job? Who knows .. look at Obama, he entered so youthful looking, now he's all gray & haggered. Trump? Guys got billions, a great lifestyle .. why would he want to spend all this time, energy & money trying to fix the biggest mess of all. He's shaving years off of his life! It's a huge step down for him.

If a president, within the 4 years .. can accomplish at least one of the promises than that would be realistic. Everything promised? Impossible. Especially when we're talking the US ..  which is a HUGE, HUGE mess. No thanks to EITHER political "gang".

[The new erato]

[North Star]

*chortle*

[drogulus]

Widespread resentment and actual hatred of the US began from the invasion of Iraq - the big guy on the block flexing his muscle again. When it ended in a quagmire, there was only sniggering.

     It should have been a quagmire. I was in favor of the quagmire, not in favor of trying to get out of it. I didn't think that would be a good idea for us. I thought it would be bad for Iraqis and Syrians. When Obama came in he wanted at first to end the quagmire, pretty much what you'd expect considering his opposition to the Iraq invasion. Something changed, probably that he realized that Iraq was not a war but a battle in a larger war. We could win or lose the battle, it could be a stalemate, and the war would go on. Russians and Turks could fill the "red line" vacuum we left in Syria and the war would go a different way. Maybe that's OK with us, maybe that's the smart move. I don't think so, Hillary doesn't think so. Her "dishonesty" requires that her real position not conform to her publicly expressed views, on the model of "Dishonest Abe" and FDR.

     

[PerfectWagnerite]

They put the chance at around an NFL kicker muffing a 30 yard fg.

Ooops, I guess I spoke too soon. Did anyone see the Cardinals-SeaHawks game last night? In overtime there were not ONE but TWO field goals under 30 yards (one 24 and the other 28) that were missed !

[Karl Henning]

(I didn't say it was a good streak!)

[PerfectWagnerite]

THis is pretty cool:

[Karl Henning]

Cruz has the Napoleon thing going! Cool.