Independence for Scotland?

[Ken B]

I'm all for the Scottish people doing what they want, however, Sturgeon is a politician, and politicians often find it more profitable to make aspirational noise than to actually get what they say they want. For example, Boris Johnson, as soon as the EU referendum results were in, disappeared, then made it clear that he would not be standing in the leadership contest to replace David Cameron — he wanted to be a comfort to defeated leave voters, the "I'm on your side" PM, perhaps in the next general election, not the "now I have to sort this all out" PM. Cameron himself promised immediate triggering of Article 50 should the referendum result in favour of leaving the EU, but his first act was to resign. Donald Trump promised to drain the swamp, by most people's count he just added more and bigger 'gators with sharper teeth. Even the EU's top people, those stalwart defenders of peace and love who are such wonderful paragons of virtue that they threatened us with all sorts of retribution following the referendum, have changed their tune pretty quickly, mainly because the underlying rhythm was that of them twiddling their thumbs, the harmonies voices of journalists looking for juicy sound bites. Politicians do politics: 10% perspiration, 90% versification.

I don't trust Theresa May or David Davis or the cohort of specialists drafted to tackle the negotiations with the EU, and I don't think we'll be in the greatest of positions when we finally step out the door in 2019 (and if we are, it'll be down to the confluence of many, many things not under our control), but there is the underlying sense that stubborn, stiff upper-lipped Britain will prevail no matter what you throw at it, and we do like a challenge. I think Scotland is better off waiting to see what happens before running full pelt off that cliff everyone keeps telling us is right under our feet, and even then I wouldn't trust Sturgeon as far as I could throw her.

Boris was betrayed by a key backer abandoning him. There goes your argument in flames.

[Crudblud]

Boris was betrayed by a key backer abandoning him. There goes your argument in flames.

An example of a politician not being trustworthy defeats the argument (though it is practically a truism) that politicians are not trustworthy? Interesting.

[Florestan]

Spain's position on this issue, as far as I see it, is slightly schizophrenic (for lack of a better word). We tend to be very pro-European as a whole, and deep down wouldn't mind a part of the UK (or "ex-UK" after this hypothetical referendum) remianing within the EU post-Brexit. But, Spain will most likley never recognise a "secessionist" European region's (or country's) right to accede to (or remain within) the EU, so as not to encourage our own secessionist regions (Catalonia).

The general opinion these days, though, is that the independence movement in Catalonia is disintegrating (very noisily, and with what the French would call "une fuite en avant"). If this secessionist problem loses thrust and fades into the background (a rather likely scenario), then Spain might (only just) be somewhat more flexible concerning an independent Scotland eventually joining the EU.

If I understand it correctly, a Catalonian independence referendum (of the sort that Artur Mas already called and had) is completely unconstitutional and have no legal binding whatsoever.

[ritter]

If I understand it correctly, a Catalonian independence referendum (of the sort that Artur Mas already called and had) is completely unconstitutional and have no legal binding whatsoever.

That is correct...but the people pushig for it don't really care about these minor legal quibbles...

[Florestan]

That is correct...but the people pushig for it don't really care about these minor legal quibbles...

These people should be put in jail for sedition. 

[Ken B]

An example of a politician not being trustworthy defeats the argument (though it is practically a truism) that politicians are not trustworthy? Interesting.

Half your post was an exploded fantasy about Boris Johnson.

[Crudblud]

Half your post was an exploded fantasy about Boris Johnson.

Less than a sixth, and not even a fantasy. I don't know why anyone thinks Boris wanted to be the Brexit PM, seemed perfectly clear to me that he wanted to run the referendum to a close loss. Boris has always been strongly in favour of the EU, the real objective was to prove he had what it takes to run a good campaign, thereby putting him in strong standing for any future leadership contest, but crucially in a UK that was still firmly within the EU. Nigel Farage's "Leave.eu" campaign tipping the scales in the leave vote's favour was the spanner in the works, not Gove. When Cameron stepped down Theresa May was almost certainly going to succeed him, Gove standing in the contest was merely a symbolic showing from the Leave campaign, which in real terms had suffered a loss and promptly withdrawn.

That's my take. Obviously, we can't know what was actually going through Boris's mind at the time, but in my view Gove's "betrayal" is far too simplistic and ingenuous a reading of the situation. Regardless, I don't think it has much bearing on the point of my original post.

[Que]

I think a Scottish independence might just happen....

Ultimately this is about self determination, to be the master of your nation's own fate.
Given the choice, the Scots would opt for society along the Scandinavian model. But no way in hell this will ever happen as you long as they're tied into the current British political system. A true federation would go a long way, but who believes the British political establishment will ever seriously consider that? Apart from a few with functioning brains and a realistic vision, who incidentally are all in favour of staying in the EU. Perhaps that option will be on the table when it is already too late....

The union with England mainly served British imperial interests, not Scottish interests. And the natural resources that came with it, including previously valuable oil reserves came as a nice bonus. Scotland underwent this arrangement because it was geographically and economically dependent on England and unable to defend itself.

Now the value of the oil reserves is no longer a major factor, Scots are warned not to leave considering the financial and economic dependency on the UK.
On the other hand polls show that a significant portion of the British couldn't care less if the Scottish went their own way, and insisted that follwing through with Brexit was more important than retaining the union with Scotland...After all, Scotland costs only the (English) tax payer a lot of money....

I think that leaves rather weak sentiments on either side for staying together: the fear of going it alone and possible financial and economic hardship on the Scottish side vs the desire to "keep the (last remnants of) the Empire together". If we can draw any conclusions from Brexit, it is that economic considerations are not always decisive and that the (perceived) possibility of "regaining" controle will outweigh anything else.

A lot will depend on how bad Brexit will turn out to be. But as soon as the Scots have the feeling they have very little to lose, it is game over for the Empire....

The Scottish PM Sturgeon made incidentally a mistake in the way she connected Brexit with a referendum independence. According to her a vote in favour of Scottish independence would mean a vote in favour of a membership of the European Union. But I don't think her electorate sees it like that....
A lot of Scottish nationalists are actually Eurosceptic.... And a lot of "Remainers" previously in favour of independence within the EU, will want to avoid further destabilisation and a "hard" economic border between Scotland and England.

I am in no position to give Sturgeon political advice but the common middle ground is hard to miss: independence with a Norwegian style relationship with the EU through a membership if the European Free Trade Association will provide free access to the European internal market while offering a customised deal with the EU on fishery and possibly immigration and a special free trade deal with England. This will be satisfactory to both nationalist and those in favour if a close (economic) relationship with both the EU snd England.

My predictions:
1) Scotland will become independent and subsequently join the EFTA (Unlike the UK, it will be welcomed by Norway with open arms).
2) Northern Ireland will accept an offer to become a part of the Irish Republic under a special autonomous status which will continue the present political arrangements of power sharing.
3) Gibraltar might accept the Spanish offer that is already on the table for joint sovereignty, to avoid an economic catastrophe.

We are witnessing the last breaths of the British Empire.....
Unless the UK reinvents itself as a federation, I don't think the Scottish will be staying on board of the Titanic just because the last bottles of champagne are still being served in the lounge....
And the sad irony of it all is that Brexiteers are destroying the one thing they want to preserve.

Q

[Florestan]

NIce analysis, Que. I quite agree.

[Monsieur Croche]

Sure.  While they're at it, they should build a Hadrian's wall to keep the English riff-raff out, and depose / retire their regent 'royalty' as well. 

Why go down with the ship when you weren't even a consulted passenger?

https://www.youtube.com/v/ECh_rZklkMA

[Ken B]

Self-determination, master of your nation's fate. That's the argument for Brexit, Que and Andrei. Glad to see you two have come around on the issue.

[Florestan]

Self-determination, master of your nation's fate. That's the argument for Brexit, Que and Andrei. Glad to see you two have come around on the issue.

I have never been against "self-determination, master of your nation's fate" --- provided one's vote is not based on propaganda and lies. Speaking of which, are you aware that Nigel Farage stated in plain English that if Brexit goes nasty for England he seriously considers moving to the US? 

[Que]

Self-determination, master of your nation's fate. That's the argument for Brexit, Que and Andrei. Glad to see you two have come around on the issue.

Indeed the same argument, as Sturgeon has already pointed out to May, but in important respects quite a different situation....

Unlike Scotland, Britain (England) isn't ruled by another power. No matter how much propaganda there has been to the contrary....

The fact that Britain is able and free to walk away, is sufficient evidence in case. And compromising in a mutually benificial relation on equal footing is a characteristic that does apply more to the European Union than to the British union.....

As to control over one's own fate, Britain as one of the three key countries (the no. 2, I would say) within the world's foremost alliance between democratic nations, is actually loosing influence over it's own destiny by going at it alone.

The Scots, however, might end up in a similar situation as Norway if they play their cards right.
Sounds not bad for a nation of 6 million people,  if you ask me....

Q

[Que]

Sure.  While they're at it, they should build a Hadrian's wall to keep the English riff-raff out, and depose / retire their regent 'royalty' as well. 

Why go down with the ship when you weren't even a consulted passenger?

https://www.youtube.com/v/ECh_rZklkMA

That's absolutely hilarious!

Speaking of which, are you aware that Nigel Farage stated in plain English that if Brexit goes nasty for England he seriously considers moving to the US? 

After convincing the passengers that the ship should head towards the icebergs at full steam, he's heading for the life boats....

Q

[Florestan]

master of your nation's fate.

Who is this master you refer to, Ken? One of the several --- ranging from (much) less than ten to (much) more than two hundred --- millions voters? Hardly a master, then, unless he votes in the majority --- and this boils down not to who is right but to who is more numerically powerful. 

[Scion7]

I'm no longer an active citizen living at home, but expedite Brexit, and let the Scots go, I say.

[Ken B]

I'm no longer an active citizen living at home, but expedite Brexit, and let the Scots go, I say.

Plus whatever is the maximum allowed.
I still await a remotely coherent response to my question about Canada and a tighter political confederation with the USA. Not even the most rabid anti Brexit types think that a good idea. Virtually no Canadian dies, the idea is a joke. But if Brexit is crazy, dangerous, ridiculous, beyond the pale, as at least some here say, then why isn't closer political union with the United States at least arguable?

[Turner]

Theresa May wants a mandate but by getting one she may be giving Nicola Sturgeon a mandate for #IndyRef2 too.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/general-election-will-vote-scottish-independence/

[The new erato]

Interesting quandary for Tory remainers.

[ahinton]

My predictions:
1) Scotland will become independent and subsequently join the EFTA (Unlike the UK, it will be welcomed by Norway with open arms).
2) Northern Ireland will accept an offer to become a part of the Irish Republic under a special autonomous status which will continue the present political arrangements of power sharing.
3) Gibraltar might accept the Spanish offer that is already on the table for joint sovereignty, to avoid an economic catastrophe.

We are witnessing the last breaths of the British Empire.....
Unless the UK reinvents itself as a federation, I don't think the Scottish will be staying on board of the Titanic just because the last bottles of champagne are still being served in the lounge....
And the sad irony of it all is that Brexiteers are destroying the one thing they want to preserve.

1) & 2), yes, especially now that May's called the snap UK General Election that she swore she wouldn't; not sure about 3). But why would it be expected to end there? Do you envisage that an independent Scotland would remain intact rather than break into pieces? Do you imagine that England would likewise remain intact rather than move towards a break-up into various regions, one being London? Will France remain a single nation should it vote for le Pen and move to leave EU? And so on...