Meltdown

[carlos]

Well, you'll have to be used to walk. It'll be good for your
health.

[BachQ]

BTW, I'm putting this Lincoln up for sale ......... 11 mpg ....... Special reduced price for GMGer's .........

[springrite]

BTW, I'm putting this Lincoln up for sale ......... 11 mpg ....... Special reduced price for GMGer's .........

Oh, boy! This baby almost double's the fuel efficiency of my first car --- Oldsmobile Delta 98 (1973), 6.5mpg! (But the baby was sturdy like a tank and goes to 200mph easy!)

[BachQ]

sturdy like a tank

Yeah, the beauty is that you will walk away from a head-on collision without a scratch ....... 

[m_gigena]

OT. I just noticed Steinway Musical Instruments is traded at the NYSE under the name LVB. 

[BachQ]

OT. I just noticed Steinway Musical Instruments is traded at the NYSE under the name LVB. 

Washington Mutual Inc.'s NYSE listing is WAM!  (Wolf. Ama. Mzt).

[m_gigena]

Washington Mutual Inc.'s NYSE listing is WAM!  (Wolf. Ama. Mzt).

Isn't it just WM?

WAM, is a relatively good acronym for Washington Mutual. But how they derived LVB from Steinway Musical Instruments is a mystery.

And the germans have their JSB too.

[m_gigena]

Bush Backs $145 Billion Economic Plan
Friday January 18, 2:08 pm ET
By Andrew Taylor and Deb Riechmann, Associated Press Writer

Bush Calls for Economic Package Worth About $145 Billion

WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Bush embraced about $145 billion worth of tax relief on Friday to jump start the lackluster economy. If Congress passes an economic stimulus package, the country will be "just fine," he said.

At the White House, Bush said such a growth package must also include tax incentives for business investment and quick tax relief for individuals. To be effective, he said an economic stimulus package would need to roughly represent 1 percent of the gross domestic product -- the value of all U.S. goods and services and the best measure of the country's economic standing.

Later, during a visit to a manufacturing plant in Frederick, Md., about 50 miles north of Washington, Bush said: "While there's some uncertainty right now, if we act quickly and in a smart way, that helps growth. We're gonna be just fine."

[m_gigena]

And it seems the market was convinced, because:

"Investors pulled back from a big early advance, with the major indexes trading mixed as Bush began to speak. By the time the president finished announcing a plan for about $145 billion worth of tax relief, the indexes were well into negative territory". (AP)

The plan must be temporary and shouldn't include any tax increases, Bush said. 

[Sean]

It's long been obvious there are serious underlying problems in the world: they've always been there but have much accelerated in the last 15 years.

There's a real possibility that the lives of many of us here will end by starvation- the world without its present massive oil supplies, destroying 85 million barrels a day, can only support 2-4 billion people.

Every thinking person should understand about peak oil, the point at which half the world's oil has been used and when prices will rise indefinitely as demand outstrips supply- and this may well have occured in 2006. Government by fools in many countries are planning their economies for ever more petroleum based growth- road building, factory building, and infrastructure based on oil supplies.

Many people think Western modernity is doing well for itself and there's no turning back of progress. But they forget that no matter how sophisticated and expensive are cars, buses and lorries, or aircraft, or endless petroleum products factories, or crop fertilizers, THEY ARE RUNNING ON 17TH CENTURY ENERGY TECHNOLOGY.

Nothing has changed essentially since the beginnings of the industrial revolution. Humanity and its democracy and the rule of the idiot, the greedy, the immoral, the short term undead moron, has squandered and burnt its planet's greatest resource, a vast reserviour of virtually free energy that could have been used as a cushion to help us develop alternative energy supplies, the most promising of which was solar. Thousands of square kilometers of hot desert needs to be covered with high performance solar panels- and this technology could have been developed and carried out decades ago.

You can watch the first 20 mins or more of a documentary The Crude Awakening on Youtube, along with important videos of Richard Heinberg and others speaking. Nobody wants to know nobody ever did, nobody ever will, until they're killing each other, as they've begun to do. 9/11, the war on terror utter garbage, and invasion of the Middle east is all peak oil.

Also see http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/.

This isn't wacky theory, it's happening now before your eyes, as the nobody masses in control continue to lie to themselves- because they've destroyed their own leadership.

[BachQ]

Sean:

1. The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas predicted in their current  newsletter (January 2008) that the peak in all oil (including non-conventional sources), would occur in 2010.  That's only 2 years away.

2. The biggest unknown is, perhaps, the colossal demand that will soon erupt in China, India, and perhaps Brazil and other countries.

3. If oil continues to be as centrally, vitally important to sustained economic growth and success as it has been in the past, then we're in for a shitload of trouble ...... on a scale we've never seen before, and probably cannot imagine ........

[BachQ]

if we act quickly and in a smart way, that helps growth. We're gonna be just fine."

Are you suggesting that Bush is a flaming idiot? 

[m_gigena]

Are you suggesting that Bush is a flaming idiot? 

I wonder how does Bernanke to sync with Bush in the meetings they may have.

[BachQ]

I wonder how does Bernanke to sync with Bush in the meetings they may have.

[m_gigena]

 

[BachQ]

Oil breaks $100, hits new all-time high
Crude soars as investors weigh the possibility of OPEC production cuts; Texas refinery explosion may have also lifted prices.
February 19 2008: 3:28 PM EST
NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices hit new record highs Tuesday as a Texas refinery fire and fears of an OPEC production cut pushed crude to settle at over $100 a barrel for the first time ever.

U.S. crude for March delivery jumped $4.51 to settle at $100.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, topping the previous settlement record of $99.62 set Jan. 2.

Oil also hit a new all-time trading high of $100.10 a barrel, besting the previous high of $100.9 set Jan. 3.

A weekend refinery explosion in Texas and the possibility that OPEC will cut production next month are driving prices higher, although analysts say there isn't a single factor to explain the move.

The refinery in Big Spring, Texas is owned by Alon USA. It processes nearly 70,000 barrels of oil a day. Officials say it could be closed for as long as two months.

"The refinery fire in Texas is making people a little concerned," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc. in Amherst, Mass.

March gasoline jumped 11.4 cents to $2.6078 a gallon, and March heating oil rose 10.41 cents to $2.751 a gallon.

The dollar fell Tuesday, giving investors another reason to buy oil. Crude futures offer a hedge against a falling dollar, and oil futures bought and sold in dollars are more attractive to foreign investors when the greenback is falling.

For the moment, investors appear to have put aside concerns about the economy that have sent oil prices down into the mid-$80 range twice since crude peaked above $100 last month. Traders are instead focused on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which will meet early next month to map out production plans, and Venezuela, where President Hugo Chavez made conflicting statements this weekend about the country's legal dispute with Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM, Fortune 500)

OPEC could move to cut production in the second quarter, typically a period of low demand, though many analysts feel that's unlikely. In Venezuela, Chavez said he was not serious about an earlier threat to cut oil sales to the United States, but also threatened to sue Exxon Mobil. The world's largest oil company is fighting Venezuela's nationalization of an oil project, and recently convinced several courts to freeze $12 billion in Venezuelan oil assets.

None of the news is enough to justify a nearly $3 a barrel jump in the price of crude, said James Cordier, founder of OptionSellers.com, a Tampa, Fla., trading firm. Echoing other analysts, Cordier argued that the oil market is in the process of "decoupling" from oil's supply and demand fundamentals. He said investors drawn by the falling dollar and momentum are pushing oil prices sharply higher despite reports last week from the Energy Department, OPEC and the International Energy Agency which all cut oil demand growth predictions for this year.

"Everyone concurs that we've got smaller demand coming in the U.S.," Cordier said.

Retail gas prices, meanwhile, jumped 1.8 cents to a national average price of $3.032 a gallon Tuesday, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Retail prices, which typically lag the futures market, are following oil prices higher. The Energy Department expects gas prices to peak near $3.40 a gallon this spring.

Other energy futures also rose Tuesday. March natural gas jumped 30.1 cents to $8.961 per 1,000 cubic feet. Analysts said prices were supported by forecasts for cooler weather, but that futures were also following oil prices higher.

In London, Brent crude for April delivery rose $3.25 to $98.16 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

[m_gigena]

[Mozart]

And the price of gold keeps going up and up....

[bwv 1080]

Its ridiculous to speak of peak oil as a certainty rather than a risk to be taken seriously.  Some serious analysis is here:

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Minnesota%20State%20of%20Representatives.pdf

With limited data and access to the major oil fields of the world there is no way to accurately calculate the timing of a peak.  Nor is it known at what price level the development and production of heavy sour crude reserves in the Canadian oil sands and other locations (which are about equal to the middle east in production capability) are feasable. 

Despite this, there is no reason why in the short term oil cannot fluctuate down to $50 / bbl in the face of a slowing global economy.

[bwv 1080]

CERA is an organization that disagrees with Simmons on several points:

    The new report describes CERA's liquids supply outlook as "not a view of endless abundance."  However, based on a range of potential scenarios and field-by-field analysis, CERA finds that not only will world oil production not peak before 2030, but that the idea of a peak is itself "a dramatic but highly questionable image."

            Global production will eventually follow an "undulating plateau" for one or more decades before declining slowly.  The global production profile will not be a simple logistic or bell curve postulated by geologist M. King Hubbert, but it will be asymmetrical – with the slope of decline more gradual and not mirroring the rapid rate of increase -- and strongly skewed past the geometric peak. It will be an undulating plateau that may well last for decades.

            During the plateau period in later decades, according to the CERA analysis, demand growth will likely no longer be largely met by growth in available, commercially exploitable natural oil supplies.  Non-traditional or unconventional liquid fuels such as production from heavy oil sands, gas-related liquids (condensate and natural gas liquids), gas-to-liquids (GTL), and coal-to-liquids (CTL) will need to fill the gap.

            Critical Issue

            CERA argues that understanding the difference between a plateau and a peak followed by a precipitous decline, as well as the timing of events, is critical to the global energy future.  "Corporations, governments, and other groups, including nongovernmental organizations, need to have a coherent description of how and when the undulating plateau will evolve so that rational policy and investment choices can be made," according to the report.     

            "It is likely that the situation will unfold in slow motion and that there are a number of decades to prepare for the start of the undulating plateau.  This means that there is time to consider the best way to develop viable energy alternatives that would eventually provide the bulk of our transport energy needs and ensure that there is a useable production stream of conventional crude for some time to come," CERA concludes.



            Peak Theory Shortcomings

            The CERA review also finds that current "peak oil" advocacy suffers from several problems:

The peak argument is not presented in the context of a credible systematic evaluation of available data; its proponents have not made available a transparent and detailed analysis that would allow an objective and rational discussion.  At base "their methodology is to impute decline curves against currently proven reserves and declare that the game – and the argument – is over."
The underlying analytical model formulated by the late M. King Hubbert both fails to recognize that recoverable reserve estimates evolve with time and are subject to significant change, and it also underplays the substantial impact of technological advances.  Consequently, total annual production at the high point in 1970 was 600 million barrels higher – 20 percent -- than Hubbert's projection of peak production for the US Lower 48, although he correctly anticipated its timing within two years.   
Hubbert's method requires accurate knowledge of the ultimate recoverable reserves of an area, but his 1956 analysis could never have incorporated the impact of giant discoveries in Alaska and the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, and therefore couldn't have predicted the production profile for the U.S.  As a result, total cumulative U.S. production between the high point in 1970 and 2005 exceeded Hubbert's predictions by the equivalent of more than 10 years of US production at present rates.
Hubbert-posited post-peak reservoir decline curve assumptions are rebutted by observation that the geometry of typical oilfield production profiles is often distinctly asymmetrical and does not generally show a precipitous mirror-image decline in production after an apparent peak, even without the application of new technology or enhanced oil recovery techniques.  As a result, in the US Lower 48 where Hubbert came closest to accurately forecasting a peak, oil production in 2005 was some 66 percent higher than projected by Hubbert, and cumulative production between 1970 and 2005 was some 15 billion barrels higher, a variance equal to more than eight years of US production at present rates.

http://www.cera.com/aspx/cda/public1/news/pressReleases/pressReleaseDetails.aspx?CID=8444