Europe at War

[Rinaldo]

Huge antiwar protest in Prague this evening. Zelenskyy addressed the crowd via a video call – he did more of these in different European cities.

[MusicTurner]

Huge antiwar protest in Prague this evening. Zelenskyy addressed the crowd via a video call – he did more of these in different European cities.

I understand that even President Zeman has made hardliner statements about the invasion. The demonstrations in Prague have been very impressive; a good initiative, if they showed him on two screens ... in Copenhagen, the sound at demonstrations wasn't designed for big gatherings.

[Todd]

Concerning Navalny and Kasparov, I don't think neither of them would succeed, definitely not Kasparov

Russia should be thrown back into the Stone Age to make sure that the oil and gas industry and any other sensitive industries that are vital for survival of the regime cannot function without Western technological support

I don't know Russian politics, but I doubt that most Russians, even if they detest Putin, would agree with this sentiment.

I think first Putin has to be removed before a new leader is installed, so maybe finish step one first.

[Todd]

Should have posted a month ago, but, eh:

Biden's CIA Director Doesn't Believe Biden's Story about Ukraine

[drogulus]

     Putin has wrecked Russia for at least a decade. His successor will have to try to figure out how to restore the country, and it might occur to the new leader that peaceful cooperation is the better choice, even if it's not the way it's usually done there.

Should have posted a month ago, but, eh:

Biden's CIA Director Doesn't Believe Biden's Story about Ukraine

     It's an old story I've read many times. Russians of all stripes felt humiliated during the Yeltsin years when NATO expanded into the former Warsaw Pact countries. Indeed, they felt that way, and they have even stronger feelings about ownership of their lovely Ukraine. That isn't the same thing as what Putin is doing with his fucking feelings, which is killing thousands of Russian speaking Ukrainians.

[SimonNZ]

Charlie Sykes: "It would be a great troll move to use all the yachts comfiscated from oligarchs to house Ukrainian refugees"

[drogulus]

    https://www.youtube.com/v/VP2wn4EytSY

     Humiliation comes in different forms.

[relm1]

    https://www.youtube.com/v/VP2wn4EytSY

     Humiliation comes in different forms.

Wow, that's very brave of him especially considering news today of severe jail (up to 50 years) for "false news" of the invasion!

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-introduce-jail-terms-spreading-fake-information-about-army-2022-03-04/

[71 dB]

Sauli Niinistö, the president of Finland, has met president Biden in the White House. Defence partnership between Finland and the USA will be strengthened.

https://yle.fi/news/3-12345177

[T. D.]

This surprised me:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-05/singapore-to-sanction-russia-in-almost-unprecedented-move

Singapore's government will impose unilateral sanctions against Russia, a move which a former diplomat said was the first time in decades that the city-state was censuring a foreign nation without backing from the United Nations Security Council.

Sanctions include imposition of export controls on items that can be used as weapons, targeted financial measures on designated Russian banks and restrictions on cryptocurrency transactions that may be used to circumvent financial sanctions, according to a statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Saturday.

The measures also ban Singapore's financial institutions from providing services that would aid Russia's central bank.

[Gurn Blanston]

Sauli Niinistö, the president of Finland, has met president Biden in the White House. Defence partnership between Finland and the USA will be strengthened.

https://yle.fi/news/3-12345177

I saw the press / photo op after the meeting was over. He seems like an impressive person. Since you aren't in NATO (wouldn't THAT drive Putain crazy?), anything that strengthens our relationship can only be good.

[drogulus]

     What if the 40 mile column is a feint? The real action is in the south, and the Ukes weaken the most critical front by defending Kyiv. The key is Odessa and then up the river on both sides, resupplied from the sea. It's just a thought.

[T. D.]

The idea of the threat based on an advance from the South (which has proceeded relatively quickly) has been expressed by pundits since the start of the war.

I read an interesting story today about the rail network's importance to Russia:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/how-ukraine-s-rail-network-threw-russia-s-military-off-track

[Florestan]

A Russian businessman has put a $1 million bounty on Vladimir Putin's head, calling for military officers to arrest him as a war criminal

"I promise to pay $1,000,000 to the officer(s) who, complying with their constitutional duty, arrest(s) Putin as a war criminal under Russian and international laws," said crypto investor and California-based businessman Alex Konanykhin in a Facebook post on Wednesday.

Konanykhin claimed that Putin had violated the Russian constitution by "eliminating free elections" and "murdering his opponents."

"As an ethnic Russian and a Russia citizen, I see it as my moral duty to facilitate the denazification of Russia. I will continue my assistance to Ukraine in its heroic efforts to withstand the onslaught of Putin's Orda," Konanykhin said, using the Russian word for "horde."

[Herman]

I saw the press / photo op after the meeting was over. He seems like an impressive person. 

Niinistö's wife is a poet.

BTW Konanykhin better add one or two zeroes to his bounty money. An assassin would need some million dollar tips to even get within shooting range.

[Que]

Russia appears to have no way out as Putin goes 'all in'


Any thoughts how this is all going to end? 

Ukraine defeated with its cities in ruins and millions of refugees? Russia isolated and politically and economically thrown back to the 1950's?

IMO the next challenge for the West will be, apart from adapting militarily and economically to the new situation, to play hardball with China.  Not only to prevent China from throwing an econmic lifeline to Putin, but also to nip any further expansionist aspirations in the bud. India has to be won over as an ally (dump Pakistan!), Japan has to be rearmed. We are witnessing, after decades of gradual changes, a major geopolitical shift.

Will this event bring the US back to its senses or will it descend further into domestic political chaos? NATO will hold, but it seems we Europeans will to a large extent be left to our own devices.

[71 dB]

I saw the press / photo op after the meeting was over. He seems like an impressive person. Since you aren't in NATO (wouldn't THAT drive Putain crazy?), anything that strengthens our relationship can only be good.

Niinistö has got a very presidential habitus, sometimes almost to a comical measures. He is a competent president without serious flaws. He is least popular in Finland among lefty intellectuals while extremely popular among the right-wingers. Since the Overton Window in Finland is different from the USA, the right-wingers in Finland are perhaps even to the left of Biden and Bernie Sanders would be a moderate centrist in Finland. So, a right wing president of Finland (Niinistö) is to the left of a left-wing president of the USA (Biden). 

Attacking Ukraine has been very counter-productive for Putin in regards of keeping Sweden and Finland out of NATO.

[Rinaldo]

I understand that even President Zeman has made hardliner statements about the invasion.

Yeah. For years, he's been quite the Russian asset. I guess the rats are jumping ship, although in his case, vengefulness is a key factor – seems like he was duped by Moscow about the Russian's not launching an invasion.

[Que]

Attacking Ukraine has been very counter-productive for Putin in regards of keeping Sweden and Finland out of NATO.

Indeed. Provocating Putin by joining NATO cannot be much of a concern anymore..

Swedish defence minister calls Russian violation of airspace 'unacceptable'


There are quite a few commentators that blame NATO expansion for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

I'm not so sure... Without NATO expansion we might have witnessed a Russian invasion of the Baltic states years ago...

And Putin is not invading the Ukraine because it wants to join NATO, but because it doesn't want to be part Russia sphere of influence a sa vasal state. Putin's agression is IMO the direct result of the Ukrainian revolution of 2014, not of NATO expansion. Putin thinks that the Ukraine belongs to Russia and he doesn't allow it to go its separate way.

[Florestan]

There are quite a few commentators that blame NATO expansion for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

I have repeatedly said it before and I will always say it: The scelerate Putin's complaint about the Baltic States, Poland and Romania joining NATO is exactly and precisely like an inveterate rapist's complaint about his former victims being put under 24/7 police protection.

As for those useful idiots commentators, I have two questions for them. How come that, given the opportunity, each and every Eastern European country bordering, or being part of, the former USSR joined NATO by their own choice? How come that not a single one of them chose to remain in Russia's sphere of influence?