Europe at War

[LKB]

Meanwhile... BUFFs training over Romania, wonder if the Russians noticed... 

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/us-bombers-fly-over-nato-territory-neighboring-ukraine

[Florestan]

The anywhere from thirty to seventy percent of people in (most) post-Soviet and former Eastern Bloc countries who still, to this day, express nostalgia or preference for communist rule

Show me one single poll supporting this outlandish claim.

[Mandryka]

The anywhere from thirty to seventy percent of people in (most) post-Soviet and former Eastern Bloc countries who still, to this day, express nostalgia or preference for communist rule may also take issue with your use of "we".

(That said: in the Donetsk and Luhansk "people's republics" the majority of such people who held actual political power were, supposedly—at least if you take the analyses of various third world communist parties at face value, which I generally do—quite rapidly executed or imprisoned and replaced with Russian ethnonationalists. You still get claims that the average citizens of the DPR/LPR love Lenin and Stalin and yearn for revolution and so on, but all the people who actually seem to be holding the guns appear to be the type that believe Russians are the master race and Ukrainians are an imaginary people invented by international Homo-Jew-Bankers for nefarious purposes or whatever.)
Europe has tied its fortunes heavily to American economic unipolarity; the emergence of an alternative "pole" centered around China therefore threatens European wealth and political power. Although from that perspective, a Chinese alliance with Russia is mostly concerning to European countries in the context of Chinese inroads in South America, Africa, the Middle East etc: European wealth originates directly (through colonial theft and occupation, followed by neocolonial economic exploitation) from natural and human resources in the third world. Even more so than America or Canada, European countries do not produce much themselves, being dominated by the service sector, and rely on the costs of materials and labour from countries they exploit remaining low. Russia and China have until now been part of this economic hegemony, contributing cheap fossil fuels and consumer goods etc, and the current war is so far doing nothing to change that—fuelling speculation and a massive (but, importantly: short-term, predictable) rise in prices of things like oil, gas and wheat. However, if the West loses the ability to manipulate resource costs through war, sanctions and regime change, economic hardship will arise, at least for the capitalist class.

(That's admittedly mostly a Fanon/Nkrumahist view. But you guys presumably know where I stand by now.)

It looks to me that on one scenario the EU have shot themselves in the foot. By making it difficult for Russia to maintain a stable economy, they've made a closer Russia/China alliance more likely. And that alliance won't do the EU any good at all. Add to that the thought that the sanctions don't seem to be having an effect on the war. Did anyone expect them to? Was it all theatre and panic?

[Mandryka]

It looks to me that on one scenario the EU have shot themselves in the foot. By making it difficult for Russia to maintain a stable economy, they've made a closer Russia/China alliance more likely. And that alliance won't do the EU any good at all. Add to that the thought that the sanctions don't seem to be having an effect on the war. Did anyone expect them to? Was it all theatre and panic?

Re the above, this is a sobering article

The rapidly spiraling deployment of these policies does not suggest a carefully calculated campaign of pressure so much as a rushed attempt to meet the demands of our own moral imperatives.

https://scholars-stage.org/pausing-at-the-precipice/

[MusicTurner]

(...) Add to that the thought that the sanctions don't seem to be having an effect on the war. Did anyone expect them to? Was it all theatre and panic?

Sanctions have been introduced for less than a week, and they are continually expanding. Time flies, especially in our modern society, but that's being too impatient, as regards their effects.

Some hope for the Russian military to be exhausted within say 3 weeks
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1499967950975115269

Obviously, the sanctions are a part of a larger pressure on Russia.

[amw]

Show me one single poll supporting this outlandish claim.

We've had this discussion before, and I've shown you the polls and generally agreed with your conclusions (i.e., most of these people don't actually support left-wing politics per se, but rather are nostalgic for the days of their youth and have revised communist politicians into being nationalist icons representing historic greatness and importance). It's not particularly relevant to the topic at hand in any case, since the rate of Soviet nostalgia in Ukraine has generally been much lower than in places like Poland or Romania, for various (justified) reasons.

It looks to me that on one scenario the EU have shot themselves in the foot. By making it difficult for Russia to maintain a stable economy, they've made a closer Russia/China alliance more likely. And that alliance won't do the EU any good at all. Add to that the thought that the sanctions don't seem to be having an effect on the war. Did anyone expect them to? Was it all theatre and panic?

I don't believe sanctions were ever intended to stop the war, no. This is not to say they're theatre; the announcement of a new sanction has predictable economic consequences that allow companies to make immense profits and acquire new holdings (or divest from unprofitable ones while there are still buyers).

Again, at this point I think the main thing that will stop the war is Russian troops running out of food and supplies, since that's already been their biggest issue.

[LKB]

The main problems are 1) humans cannot see into the future with perfect clarity, and 2) humans aren't perfect.

Since a certain subset of Homo Sapiens came up with the sanctions to impose upon another subset which, in turn, is attacking a third subset, it is a foregone conclusion that nothing is guaranteed, neither positive nor negative. Indeed, here's the ending of the same article:

" One can make a convincing defense for any one of these measures. It is quite possible that all of them, combined with the other options now being discussed in Western capitals, will successfully blunt Russian aggression, strengthen NATO's long term defense, or deter countries like China from repeating the Russian playbook in places like Taiwan. It is possible. Yet events are passing swift. The rapidly spiraling deployment of these policies does not suggest a carefully calculated campaign of pressure so much as a rushed attempt to meet the demands of our own moral imperatives.

The logic of the imperative has led the West into disaster before. We must be vigilant lest we blindly leap into catastrophe once again. "

In other words, sanctions may or may not yield the desired result.

I never could have figured that out all by myself... 

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Concerning Zelensky, that's the Ukrainian version; their information isn't always correct.

But I've wondered if there's military research on nano-drones, almost invisible, going on, for such projects (as well as surveillance etc.). They'll probably exist in the future. Just a little thought of mine.

Clever idea re drones! 

[MusicTurner]

Clever idea re drones! 

Imagine them in ant-, or mosquito-, or dust size ...
not nice.

[LKB]

Clever idea re drones! 

The CIA had mini-drones for research purposes decades ago. They were about the size of the smallest drones currently available to consumers, and were developed in the 1980's iirc. Makes me wonder if they're down to bug- sized yet.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Huge antiwar protest in Prague this evening. Zelenskyy addressed the crowd via a video call – he did more of these in different European cities.

Great to see that!

PD

[LKB]

I find much to admire in Mr. Zelensky. He's displayed stellar leadership, generated from the most passionate courage.

However, l hope someone convinces him to give up on the no-fly- zone. He wants to protect his people, of course, but such action would almost certainly widen the war, probably within hours.

[Mandryka]

Again, at this point I think the main thing that will stop the war is Russian troops running out of food and supplies, since that's already been their biggest issue.

If that's right then it makes Putin look like a blundering rogue elephant - I mean, it makes Russia under Putin a less attractive friend for China.

[Mandryka]

I find much to admire in Mr. Zelensky. He's displayed stellar leadership, generated from the most passionate courage.

He's amazing - media savvy and when he asked for EU membership in the middle of this, that's outrageous, to ask for EU membership as the bombs are raining, and to ask for it publicly, from the battlefield  - real chutzpah, breaking all the rules.

[Dry Brett Kavanaugh]

Biden and Nato leaders publicly state that they don't want a war with Russia while they want Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. It doesn't work that way toward Russia, which only respects force. The aforementioned statements/policy (and the resulting reluctance of implementing no-fly zone) increase, rather than decrease, the chance of international war, and minimize the chance of Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.


Post ed. Georgia and Moldova has applied for EU Membership.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Imagine them in ant-, or mosquito-, or dust size ...
not nice.

At the time of my comment I had been thinking of you mentioning that with *good purposes/intentions in mind--but yes, like everything, they could be used for ill.  I read recently about something that Apple came up with--Apple Air Tags--which were initially created to help people find their "stuff" being used by evil-folks-with-bad-intentions to do things like follow women to their homes (finding out where they live)...where they go, etc.   Shudder!   

*Did I misunderstand your initial comments?

PD

[Pohjolas Daughter]

The CIA had mini-drones for research purposes decades ago. They were about the size of the smallest drones currently available to consumers, and were developed in the 1980's iirc. Makes me wonder if they're down to bug- sized yet.

Interesting to hear.  I have mixed thoughts about what I've heard about the current versions and how some people are using them.  I could see how they could/did(?) (hopefully) have helped the military accomplish goals (thinking here of what I have heard re the US military in some instances) but am also concerned about other things like people's privacy, people interfering with aircraft, and all sorts of things--including scaring wildlife.  Perhaps the biggest issue:  determining/restricting(?) access to them to the right people?  Big questions and ethics issues I know.

PD

[drogulus]

     The Polish MIGs may yet fly. The deal would be Poland donates planes to the Ukes and Poland get US planes. It's getting the US jets soon anyway.

     These MIGs are oldies but goodies.

[MusicTurner]

At the time of my comment I had been thinking of you mentioning that with *good purposes/intentions in mind--but yes, like everything, they could be used for ill.  I read recently about something that Apple came up with--Apple Air Tags--which were initially created to help people find their "stuff" being used by evil-folks-with-bad-intentions to do things like follow women to their homes (finding out where they live)...where they go, etc.   Shudder!   

*Did I misunderstand your initial comments?

PD

Well, they can be used for something good and something bad, of course. I remember reading about already existing nano-bots that are to be used medically inside one's body, in the blood veins, say against cancer (still on the experimental level). They are able to move on their own, though not with any remote control. So engineering truly 'en miniature'. But there's something generally unpleasant about such tiny, even invisible stuff ...

[Que]

It looks to me that on one scenario the EU have shot themselves in the foot. By making it difficult for Russia to maintain a stable economy, they've made a closer Russia/China alliance more likely. And that alliance won't do the EU any good at all. Add to that the thought that the sanctions don't seem to be having an effect on the war. Did anyone expect them to? Was it all theatre and panic?

Putin had already been busy getting closer ties with Beijing for a while, in anticipation of this conflict and European sanctions.
Most of the predictions I've read are that the Russian economy is heading for a meltdown.

Russia needs another party to prop up his economy by buying its energy and raw materials, and China needs them.
Both want to expand their sphere of influence by encroaching upon the sovereignty of other nations. They tacitly agreed to have each other's back - it's a perfect marriage of convenience. There are reports that Beijing knew of the invasion and asked the Russians to wait till after the Olympics.

Putin miscalculated and things got out of hand, which took China by surprise as well. The strong message to China should be that throwing a life line to Putin will mean very, very frosty trade relations with the West (US, Europe & allies). China is economically shaky right now... will it take that risk? Maybe not.

Of course Russia is now a big threat because Europe has an aggressive neighbour with a huge army with nuclear capability,  led by an insane dictator. But in the grand scheme of things, Russia is a dying empire with a disfunctional economy. The long term threat on a global level is not Russia but China. Which happens to be the US' neighbour and not Europe's....