Europe at War

[MusicTurner]

Sanctions: the Atlantic Faroe Islands, that have gotten some bad press due to their whaling, will join the sanctions and abolish the fish/salmon export to Russia, which constitues no less than 1/4 of the region's export profits and have contributed a lot to their increased standard of living. They probably think that they can find alternative  markets. It's considered the best-quality salmon available.

[Que]

I am astosnished to see that many people who profess to be conservatives consider Putin as one of their own and Russia as a country worthy of admiration and emulation. I believe that, on the contrary, an intellectually honest and morally principled conservative should recoil in horror at both.

It all makes sense if we realise the ideological similarities: identity politics, nationalism, authoritarianism, the idealisation of power and the use of force over dialogue and cooperation. The animosity towards minorities, those that are "different" or perceived "weak". Putin's concocted story of the history of Russia and "Russianess" - it's "Blut und Boden" all over again.

The ugly thruth is that the threat to peace and democacy is not just coming from Putin,  but is also coming from within our own societies and political systems. Yet another analogy with the 1930's BTW....

[LKB]

Mmmm... salmon...

Sorry, it's been a while since any smoked salmon came my way.

More power to the Faroes, l expect they'll eventually find customers to replace the Russians.

[LKB]

It all makes sense if we realise the ideological similarities: identity politics, nationalism, authoritarianism, the idealisation of power and the use of force over dialogue and cooperation. The animosity towards minorities, those that are "different" or perceived "weak". Putin's concocted story of the history of Russia and "Russianess" - it's "Blut und Boden" all over again.

The ugly thruth is that the threat to peace and democacy is not just coming from Putin,  but is also coming from within our own societies and political systems. Yet another analogy with the 1930's BTW....

" Those who fail to remember the past... "

[LKB]

The Russians are now employing hypersonic missiles:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-reports-using-advanced-hypersonic-missile-in-ukraine-for-first-time/

[Que]

The Russians are now employing hypersonic missiles:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-reports-using-advanced-hypersonic-missile-in-ukraine-for-first-time/

It seems that since Putin's "cannon fodder" cannot/ will not fight, throwing bombs is his only option.
Putin throwing in his latest and undoubtedly secret gadgets, is not a good sign - he is desperate for his "victory".
We are dangerously close to Russian chemical and biological warfare, which is only one step away from the deployment of a small tactical nuclear weapon.

[LKB]

Aside from any other considerations, employing your latest weapons unnecessarily in a theater where your adversary ( in this context NATO/US, not Ukraine ) has advanced reconnaissance capabilities is rarely wise. I wonder if anyone mentioned that to Vlad the Mad. Or perhaps he just had to play with his new toy, regardless of advice.

[milk]

It all makes sense if we realise the ideological similarities: identity politics, nationalism, authoritarianism, the idealisation of power and the use of force over dialogue and cooperation. The animosity towards minorities, those that are "different" or perceived "weak". Putin's concocted story of the history of Russia and "Russianess" - it's "Blut und Boden" all over again.

The ugly thruth is that the threat to peace and democacy is not just coming from Putin,  but is also coming from within our own societies and political systems. Yet another analogy with the 1930's BTW....

it's on the left and the right if you go to the extremes. There IS a left, and I know some of them personally I'm sorry to say, who blame "the west" completely and talk up the supposedly fascist elements (echoing Putin) in Ukraine. Gabbard is not a lone wolf in this regard. I had to finally unfriend an old college mate for constantly tagging me in his pro-China, pro-Russia FB posts - he's not a right winger, but a world-socialist type. I agree the Tucker Carlson right is pretty bad and perhaps more popular but, still, identity politics is hardly a right wing ploy. Conservatives may have changed but ethnic nationalism wasn't mainstream conservatism of the past. There's always the fringe though.

[Que]

it's on the left and the right if you go to the extremes. There IS a left, and I know some of them personally I'm sorry to say, who blame "the west" completely and talk up the supposedly fascist elements (echoing Putin) in Ukraine. Gabbard is not a lone wolf in this regard. I had to finally unfriend an old college mate for constantly tagging me in his pro-China, pro-Russia FB posts - he's not a right winger, but a world-socialist type. I agree the Tucker Carlson right is pretty bad and perhaps more popular but, still, identity politics is hardly a right wing ploy. Conservatives may have changed but ethnic nationalism wasn't mainstream conservatism of the past. There's always the fringe though.

Both fringes of the political spectrum are concerning, agreed. But in the US (or in Europe) the extreme left is hardly a relevant political factor. The threat to democracy comes from the radicalisation of (parts of) mainstream conservatism. In the US "America first" and stoking the fears of the white Christian middle class are examples of nationalism and identity politics right there. Questioning the legitimacy of the election process, politicising the Supreme Court and extreme gerrymandering are all authoritarian and anti-democratic tendencies of mainstream conservatism. Trump even had his very own Beer Hall Putsch...

But the main topic here is not US politics. And I'm not implying that Europe is any better/different: there are many worrying examples accross Europe, ranging from the UK, France, Poland to Hungary. Any possible further discussion on the US specifically, should be on the US politics thread.

[Florestan]

It all makes sense if we realise the ideological similarities: identity politics, nationalism, authoritarianism, the idealisation of power and the use of force over dialogue and cooperation. The animosity towards minorities, those that are "different" or perceived "weak". Putin's concocted story of the history of Russia and "Russianess" - it's "Blut und Boden" all over again.

None of the above is a genuinely conservative position, the most conspicuous case being that of ethnic nationalism which was in fact one of the main tenets of 19th century liberalism and against which the conservatives fought fiercely --- Mazzini vs. Metternich. As for authoritarianism, I will only say that in the last quarter of the 19th century in Romania the staunchest and most uncompromisingly defender and practitioner of the freedom of the press was the Conservative Party, while the leader of the National Liberal Party was nicknamed "The Vizier", which in a country that was for centuries under Ottoman suzerainty bears heavy connotations. 

The discussion is long and off-topic, though, so I'll just say that my idea of conservatism bears little resemblance with what passes today for conservatism and leave it at that.

[Que]

The discussion is long and off-topic, though, so I'll just say that my idea of conservatism bears little resemblance with what passes today for conservatism and leave it at that.

No argument there. But that's always the way in which the extreme left or right ever get to power: they "hijack" the political centre.

I forgot to highlight kleptocracy as an important factor in the present state of Russian politics that led up to this war. Kleptocractic tendencies and corruption are by nature a threat to democracy and can been seen in the US as well as several Europea countries.

[Todd]

Biden Warns China of 'Consequences' if It Aids Russia in Ukraine War

The US as global tough guy, threatening to expand the economic war to two fronts.  That's the kind of thing that can transmogrify into a two front armed conflict.

As much power as the US possesses, causing another global recession and possible global war would more likely than not result in a forcible change to the global order, yielding one much less satisfactory than the current order, even with a hapless sovereign nation carved up. 


Xi says improper handling of Taiwan issues will hit China-U.S. ties

And if the US can issue threats, so can China.  Maybe negotiate away Taiwanese independence for a cessation to hostilities in Ukraine?

[Que]

I also wonder if the US and its allies can take on Russia and China simultaneously in a direct confrontation without endangering the present world order and economy. If push comes to shove, we'll discover that China holds power over essential resources that we need to mantain our economic standards.

The best case scenario is that China stays on the sideline, but I'm not very confident. It might rather see this as an golden opportunity to make its own moves.

[Karl Henning]

Tucker Carlson's editorials are routinely quoted in full on a conservative, nationalist, conspiracy-theory news & ops Romanian website whose stance is that while Putin is a contemptible criminal the invasion of Ukraine is just the latest step toward the Great Reset (the prior one being the Covid pandemics) and the world leaders and organizations, including BIden, Macron, SCholz, Johnson and NATO, are complicit to that. 

I am astosnished to see that many people who profess to be conservatives consider Putin as one of their own and Russia as a country worthy of admiration and emulation. I believe that, on the contrary, an intellectually honest and morally principled conservative should recoil in horror at both.

What has happened in the US is: if you're not in the tank with the disgraced former president, "you aren't a conservative."

[Karl Henning]

The ugly thruth is that the threat to peace and democacy is not just coming from Putin,  but is also coming from within our own societies and political systems. Yet another analogy with the 1930's BTW....

QFT

[Todd]

If the current situation devolves into a global, (non-nuclear) total war, or something even close to it, then no, The West cannot win.  The post-war economic system globalized too many economic factors, which explicitly means that resource extraction and lower value added but still critical components of all global supply chains have been outsourced to regions more directly swayed or controlled by Eurasian land powers.  In simple terms, a worst-case scenario could see China cutoff or destroy production capacity of critical outputs in Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam; China could or would obviously cutoff Chinese exports to the West; and Russia and Iran would be able to supply oil to the "new axis" at levels that cannot be matched by The West and its allies, real or transactional - ie, The House of Saud.  (Perhaps the most significant shift in regional politics is the ever-increasing influence and power of Iran in the Middle East, thereby putting an end to the Carter Doctrine.)  The full military might of the US, meaning overwhelming naval and air power, will not be able to overcome the geographical advantages of the new axis.  The US cannot bomb the entire Eurasian land mass, hitting all land routes and sea routes at all times.  Allied military capacity (ie, French and British capabilities) in this regard is essentially irrelevant. 

The US is fortunate enough to be less dependent than European countries with regard to key resources (eg, hydrocarbons) and can ramp up industrial production to levels that match or surpass China in some key areas, and the US has enough other resources (eg, rare earth elements) that it can remove production restrictions and move toward ever elusive autarky in some arenas.  (On the domestic front, environmental groups and even Native American groups are already seeing the effects of this shift as mining restrictions are being revised; the US will ravage some areas to keep key technology production going, as it must.)  These are some of the reasons why the US should begin to reduce its commitment to Europe and shift focus to hemispheric engagement to achieve a greater degree of economic independence from Eurasia. 

If things go nuclear, well, then, shit.

[drogulus]

     The decline of oil based power will continue. The most advanced technological countries will align regardless of which continent they are on. For some reason people think China is one of the advanced countries because it makes goods it sells to advanced countries. But it's not true. Japan actually is advanced, so when it passed its peak as importer of consumer goods it has continued to thrive. China can't do that. They can't make a decent chip for their own markets.

     How about the "decline of the West" so eagerly awaited by Western masochists?

     

[Mandryka]

Boris Johnson compares Ukraine's fight for freedom to Brexit and resisting wokeness

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-compares-ukraines-fight-26507434

[Mandryka]

Man raps about killing Putin during Texas town council meeting

https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1504902960622583811

[Florestan]

What has happened in the US is: if you're not in the tank with the disgraced former president, "you aren't a conservative."

Whoever is not with us is against us was an official dogma of the Romanian Communist Party ruling the Socialist Republic of Romania, 1948-1989.

Now, technically and ethnically (pun) speaking, I am a Romanian 1848-Revolution-style liberal --- which in contemporary terms would translate as mostly centrist / moderately conservative in all matters political, economical and social, save in foreign policy matters, which are decidedly and uncompromisingly Russophobic.  Ever since 1848, increasingly since 1856 and overwhelmingly since 1878-79, the maxim which guided Romanian foreign policy, no matter the party in power, was "Alliance with anyone but Russia". After the forcible 1948-1989 hiatus and a short domination of former Communists thereafter we resumed the said foreign policy  --- the important thing to notice is that no matter the party in power, be it Socialists and their allies or Liberals and their allies, the stated and pursued goal was to join NATO and EU, which we eventually achieved it in 2004 and 2007 respectively. Contrary to the Putinist / Fringe Leftist propaganda, it's not NATO and EU which forced themselves upon our throats --- it's we as a vast majority of the Romanian people which wanted to join them.

Do I think the USA, the leading NATO country, is blameless? No. Do I think EU is blameless? No. But I do sincerely, honestly and earnestly believe that (1) Romania had, has and will have no better choice, and (2) in our whole history we have never been in a better position than we are now, in political, economical and security terms.

And to all those who say --- and there quite a few --- that we Romanians have more in common with our Orthodox Russian brothers than with the Catholic and Protestant West, I say first and foremost "Fuck off!" and then urge them to read Matthew 7: 22-23. Plus, I'm not a fan of Pope Francis but he is to Patriarch Kirill as Mother Theresa is to Stalin.