Europe at War

[Todd]

Biden stands by saying Putin shouldn't stay in power: 'I'm not walking anything back'

I was expressing my outrage. He shouldn't remain in power, just like bad people shouldn't continue to do bad things. But it doesn't mean we have a fundamental policy to do anything to take Putin down in any way.

[drogulus]

     I think most of the world will forgive Biden for saying what most of the world thinks.

     Sure, it's not US policy to get rid of Putin. Russian policy makers will decide that. There's nothing wrong with having an opinion about it, though. Russians should understand the world they live in. Putin turned out to be really bad at that even by Russian standards.

[The new erato]

Russia have No policy makets. Russia don't work that way. They have Putin.

[MusicTurner]

Now, official Russian announcements about scaling down its military involvement in the Kyiv and Cernihiv regions drastically, 'to signal good will in the ongoing negotiation process'. Cernihiv is north-east from Kyiv and close to Chernobyl too.

Also, Russia is 'not against Ukraine's EU membership', a Russian negotiator said.

Ukraine seems to be more open for skipping NATO membership, but they'd have to change the constitution and do some sort of a referendum, whereas the majority of the public is currently for a membership.

[Florestan]

Now, official Russian announcements about scaling down its military involvement in the Kyiv and Cernihiv regions, 'to signal good will in the ongoing negotiation process'.

Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes... 

[MusicTurner]

Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes... 

Yes, they are very, very short of credibility, and possess the opposite aplenty. But at least, this has been shown to everyone now.

[Todd]

Zelensky loses patience: Your weak sanctions, we are paying with life!

Zelenskyy's acting background can come in handy, though ultimately it will not be effective in affecting policy.  Surely he knows that Europeans will not cut off Russian hydrocarbon imports.

[Florestan]

Yes, they are very, very short of credibility, and possess the opposite aplenty. But at least, this has been shown to everyone now.

Apparently it's a good sign, yes.

In the same vein I just saw a title on a Romanian TV station: Russian State Duma announces the special military operation is drawing to an end. I had no time to verify the news but God grant!

[Todd]

Russian rouble soars to 83 vs dollar before easing, stocks mixed

Looks like switching to mandating payments in rubles for hydrocarbons wasn't as catastrophic a move as some observers thought. 


Surely the dollar will remain dominant.  Well, here's a slightly different viewpoint:

Ukraine war accelerates the stealth erosion of dollar dominance

Thus, we are already seeing movement towards a more multipolar international monetary system — just not the tripolar system dominated by the dollar, euro and renminbi anticipated by many observers.

Recent events are likely to accelerate diversification...

[drogulus]

Russia have No policy makets. Russia don't work that way. They have Putin.

     That's a big problem. Russians should do something about it.

     Regarding NATO membership, I see a way forward. Membership will be conditional, and any hostile action by Russia will trigger it. Since the present regime is incapable of treating neighbors in a cooperative manner, Ukraine will join the club. If Russia discovers policy makers within its ranks, Ukraine can maintain a well armed neutrality.

[Karl Henning]

Now, official Russian announcements about scaling down its military involvement in the Kyiv and Cernihiv regions drastically, 'to signal good will in the ongoing negotiation process'. Cernihiv is north-east from Kyiv and close to Chernobyl too.

Also, Russia is 'not against Ukraine's EU membership', a Russian negotiator said.

Ukraine seems to be more open for skipping NATO membership, but they'd have to change the constitution and do some sort of a referendum, whereas the majority of the public is currently for a membership.

Hard to see the Ukrainian people against membership in NATO, given present circs.

[The new erato]

     That's a big problem. Russians should do something about it.

That requires a reversal of 500 years of history and clture.

[Florestan]

     That's a big problem. Russians should do something about it.

That's a big problem only for those Russians who subscribe to liberal democracy, free market and personal liberties --- ie, to Westernized / Westernizing Russians. Now, another big problem is that they have always been a tiny minority, they have always been too small and too weak a group to be able to effectively do something about it and they have always been overwhelmed by extremists and terrorists.

I urge you --- and anyone else, for that matter --- to read Isaiah Berlin's Russian Thinkers.

[Florestan]

That requires a reversal of 500 years of history and clture.

Aye.

[Florestan]

Just read on a Romanian TV station:

Chief Russian Peace Negotiator: We don't mind Ukraine's joining the EU.

Looks like today is the turning point. God grant!

[drogulus]

That requires a reversal of 500 years of history and clture.

     Yes, that's big. I think Nemtsov had a considerable following when Putin had him killed. I would not discount the modernized Russians, even though hundreds of thousands have fled.

[Florestan]

    I would not discount the modernized Russians, even though hundreds of thousands have fled.

Sooner or later Putin will be history (hopefully sooner) yet there'll be a cold day in hell before liberal Russians will gain the upper hand in Russian politics.

I said it before, I say it again: the best we can hope for, and from, Russia is a moderate autocracy with a widely accepted way of power shift --- ie, the restoration of Tsarism.

[Karl Henning]

Sooner or later Putin will be history (hopefully sooner) yet there'll be a cold day in hell before liberal Russians will gain the upper hand in Russian politics.

Because, where Putin has a limited shelf life, the mafiosi russi do not.

[Florestan]

Because, where Putin has a limited shelf life, the mafiosi russi do not.

This is probably THE one reason that has very little to do with historical Russia or with the USSR and everything to do with the contemporary world.

Cf. Lenin's dictum: The capitalists will sell us the rope with which to hang them.

I just had a second thought on that: Russian mafia is certainly dangerous but just as certainly has no interest whatever in a nuclear war. 

[MusicTurner]

Hard to see the Ukrainian people against membership in NATO, given present circs.

Agree.

Maybe they'll try to somehow postpone some of the negotiating issues, in exchange for cease-fire, but for Russia, Ukraine going NATO would be a major admission of defeat. Would Russia then trade that for getting Crimea and parts of Donbass ? Doesn't seem likely.

I haven't seen any suggested, obtainable compromise yet. There is a strong nationalism in Ukraine, and many stick to claiming Crimea and the Donbass 'republics' as still belonging to Ukraine. Plus there is the problem of the Russian annexation breaking international law and stability, and the later Russian claim for even more of Donbass. But due to the situation in recent years, including 100s of 1000s Russians having moved to Crimea, and pro-Ukraine people having fled from there and from Donbass 'republics', local referendums, even with a long-lasting, preparing debate, would probably vote in favour for Russia now. Though likely not in the remaining Donbass areas.

A DMZ-like zone? The economy there is quite comprehensive and needs a boost, plus integration with the surrounding areas. A DMZ zone would likely not provide that.