Europe at War

[drogulus]

     
     The most important oil sanctions will be from the service companies.

     https://www.youtube.com/v/V7VIDduNpPQ

[Spotted Horses]

     
The most important oil sanctions will be from the service companies.

It is a little ambiguous what Halliburton and Slumberger are doing. Looking at some reports, some say Halliburton is suspending work, but others say they are stopping "new" business. If you are making hole you can't just turn the rig off an go home without creating a dangerous and/or environmentally catastrophic situation.

The sad fact for Russia is that their exports are almost entirely petroleum and minerals, and they can't even extract their own petroleum without western service companies (Haliburton, Slumberger, Baker-Hughes).

[Todd]

'Realistic possibility': UK PM Boris Johnson on whether Russia could 'win' war against Ukraine

[Que]

How Ukraine does it, it's astounding...

Two Russian generals have been killed near Kherson, the Ukrainian ministry of defence's intelligence directorate has said. Another is in critical condition.

[Florestan]

How Ukraine does it, it's astounding...

Two Russian generals have been killed near Kherson, the Ukrainian ministry of defence's intelligence directorate has said. Another is in critical condition.

I can hardly wait for Putin to inspect the troops... 

[André]

In the 'selfie of the year' meme series, this:

[Herman]

How Ukraine does it, it's astounding...

Apparently, the Russian army is unable to communicate via encrypted lines, so the Ukes can follow the movements of those generals.

[Spotted Horses]

I wonder how Edward Snowden feels about living in Russia now.

[LKB]

Snowden has never been more than a naive child, and l personally wouldn't spare one second in thinking about him.

[milk]

I wonder how Edward Snowden feels about living in Russia now.

I'm sure it's better than sitting in a box for 50 years.

[MusicTurner]

I wonder how Edward Snowden feels about living in Russia now.

He's currently engaged in attacking democracy errors in Denmark, in an interview with one of our papers. Attacks limited free speech in the intelligence services.

Though he does have a point (already made by local press here), it's not really the biggest of problems right now.

[Que]

Germany seemed to be ready to assume the leadership role in Europe, but it seems that social-democratic chancellor Scholz is letting this opportunity slip away and is even politically isolating Germany.

His coalition partner, the Green party is not happy about this. I wouldn't be surprised if the German govt would fall over this and would, after fresh elections, be replaced by a govt from the right. A more hawkish govt that paradoxically, for strategic geopolitical  reasons, would have less reservations to cut energy ties with Russia...

Scholz's Ukraine Strategy No Longer Enough for Germany's Allies
Germany's Ukraine policy could strain effort to contain Putin
Scholz has little wiggle room on weapons supplies, sanctions

By Michael Nienaber (Bloomberg), April 20, 2022

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is getting left behind by the international effort to help Ukraine stand up to Russia and has no obvious way back into the fold.

The 63-year-old Social Democrat has resisted directly supplying tanks and other heavy weapons to Ukraine and opposed an embargo of Russian oil and gas. His policies have him in a tight corner and risk holding back Germany's allies just as Russia embarks on a new offensive in eastern Ukraine.

After bringing Germany's defense policy more in line with its partners in the early stages of Vladimir Putin's invasion, Scholz has failed to keep pace with the changing dynamics. Evidence of war crimes by Russian troops and Ukraine's tenacious defense have led to calls for more aggressive action, especially by fellow NATO members in the Baltics.

"Now is not the time for sitting on the fence or showing a mere token support to Ukraine," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told reporters on Wednesday at a news conference in Riga, standing next to German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.

He also called on Germany to "do the right thing" and back a proposal to sanction Russian oil imports in the next package of European Union measures. "We understand that it is a very difficult political and economic decision that has to be explained to the people in Germany," Landsbergis said. "But I think that in this case, probably it's unavoidable."

Donald Tusk, the former president of the European Council, was more blunt. "The Germans must firmly support Ukraine today if we are to believe that they have drawn conclusions from their own history," he said on Twitter.

After a video call with Group of Seven counterparts on Tuesday, Scholz had an opportunity to counter mounting criticism. Instead, he obfuscated. He said Germany didn't have equipment to send Ukraine, questioned the ability of Kyiv's military to operate modern weapons systems and insisted Berlin wouldn't become directly involved in the war.

While Scholz -- who hasn't visited Kyiv in recent weeks unlike many European counterparts -- did offer to pay for certain orders from German defense suppliers, there was a catch: modern heavy weapons such as Leopard and Marder tanks weren't on offer, according to Ukraine's envoy in Berlin.

"The weapons that we need aren't on this list," Ambassador Andrij Melnyk told public broadcaster ZDF after Scholz's press conference. "We believe that the Germany military would still be able to supply us with weapons that are required right now." Melnyk met with senior officials from Scholz's party on Wednesday to make his case for heavy weapons and smooth over a flap triggered by the envoy's criticism of German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier over close relations to Putin when he was foreign minister. After the meeting, he told RTL television that the two sides were "still moving too slowly" toward one another.

In late February, Scholz shocked critics by trashing Germany's long tradition of not sending weapons to conflict zones and decided to deliver hundreds of anti-tank and anti-air missiles to Ukraine. In a historic policy shift, he also announced a 100 billion-euro ($108 billion) fund to bolster Germany's military capabilities after years of neglect. He's now offering to provide ammunition and train Ukraine forces on a self-propelled, rapid-fire artillery system, according to a senior government official. But the equipment will be supplied via the Netherlands.

Scholz's current stance has been criticized by members from his ruling alliance. Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, a senior lawmaker from the Free Democrats, said the chancellor's plans for weapons deliveries on Tuesday fell short. "You have to fight for freedom and human rights, and there wasn't enough concrete information on that," she said on Twitter. "We're still too far behind."

Anton Hofreiter, a veteran lawmaker from the Greens, echoed those comments in an interview with Augsburger Allgemeine newspaper, warning that a third world war could break out if Ukraine doesn't stop Putin.

Questions have also been raised about Germany's resistance to energy sanctions. A national effort to optimize supplies and reduce demand could offset Russian gas supplies as soon as this winter, according to a report by Berlin-based thinktank DIW.

While Scholz -- who succeeded Angela Merkel in December -- can't immediately undo years of underspending on defense or recreate Germany's energy system in a few months, he could be more forceful in his response. Instead, he's been dismissive, referring to critics as "boys and girls." In a commentary on Wednesday, Bild newspaper accused Scholz of failing to making a series of mistakes in Ukraine, including failing to protect Germany's national interests by stopping Putin and insufficiently distancing himself from his former boss Gerhard Schroeder and other Social Democrats with ties to Russia.

Still, Scholz's cautious approach has received backing from his cabinet. Finance Minister Christian Lindner -- also the head of the FDP -- told Bloomberg TV Wednesday that Germany was "open" to deliver further weapons but only "under the condition" that Germany's defense responsibilities aren't affected and the country doesn't become an actor in the war.

Economy Minister Robert Habeck -- a former co-leader of the Greens -- supported Scholz's plans to replace Soviet-model weapons sent from Eastern European partners with modern equipment. "The federal government is acting and will ensure that the quality and quantity of direct and indirect arms deliveries continue to increase rapidly," he said in an interview with the Rheinische Post newspaper.

But pressure is growing and is unlikely to let up. The opposition CDU is calling for parliamentary debate on Germany's Ukraine policy, and Scholz has left himself with little wiggle room. "We're half-hearted," said Johann Wadepfuhl, deputy parliamentary leader for the conservative party. "We're not completely on the side of the Ukrainians, and this is a serious geopolitical mistake for which Olaf Scholz is responsible."

[BasilValentine]

I'm sure it's better than sitting in a box for 50 years.

For doing exactly the right thing.

[Todd]

Though he does have a point (already made by local press here), it's not really the biggest of problems right now.

But it's still a big problem that needs to be addressed right now, along with other problems. 

Germany seemed to be ready to assume the leadership role in Europe, but it seems that social-democratic chancellor Scholz is letting this opportunity slip away and is even politically isolating Germany.

There is little reason to believe that the Russo-Ukrainian war will fundamentally alter pre-existing tendencies in Europe since altering underlying physical realities - energy delivery, for instance - will take years and additional billions of dollars.  Expect to see current expanded military budgets shrink and promised expenditures never come to fruition. 

Also, the fiercest European opponents of Russia are obviously Eastern Europeans.  This type of split creates openings for opponents of greater European integration to foment discord. 

[Florestan]

the fiercest European opponents of Russia are obviously Eastern Europeans. 

Obviously, the fiercest opponents of Russia are those nations which have experienced Russian dominion / menace / interference first-hand and for a long time --- Romania included.

This type of split creates openings for opponents of greater European integration to foment discord. 

If you really believe this is good for the USA you are delusional --- gravely so.

[Florestan]

In the 'selfie of the year' meme series, this:

Inshallah!

May God forgive me for sinning on Easter Day --- I just couldn't resist.

[BasilValentine]

Inshallah!

May God forgive me for sinning on Easter Day --- I just couldn't resist.

Desiring the downfall of evil is a healthy thought and thoughts are not sins — unless you're a Roman Catholic. 

[Florestan]

Desiring the downfall of evil is a healthy thought and thoughts are not sins — unless you're a Roman Catholic. 

I'm an Eastern Orthodox. 

[Harry]

I'm an Eastern Orthodox. 

So am I, and I feel the same, evil begets evil. We are given the choice between good and bad, free to decide, every side has consequences, I will always go the towards the good. It is no sin to wish evil be annihilated. Christ has risen my friends, lets remember this.

[Karl Henning]

I'm an Eastern Orthodox. 

So am I, and I feel the same, evil begets evil. We are given the choice between good and bad, free to decide, every side has consequences, I will always go the towards the good. It is no sin to wish evil be annihilated. Christ has risen my friends, lets remember this.

My friends, I'm smiling at the thought of the signature of a "virtual acquaintance" of yore: I don't belong to an organized religion; I'm Eastern Orthodox."