Europe at War

[Que]

     I don't see how it is the US interest to defend Belarus.

     Lukashenko is starting to crack. Now he's praising the Ukes and says he hopes his military learns from them. I shit you not.

Lukashenko was already cautious enough not to get his army actively involved in the invasion.

Now he is fearing for his own skin.
If the Belarusian opposition ever wants to plan a regime change, now might be the time....

Would be another huge blow for Putin. Instead of rebuilding and expanding Russia's sphere of influence, his actions have accelerated its decline.

[Que]

Ukraine war: Military intelligence chief 'optimistic' of Russian defeat saying war 'will be over by end of year'

BTW The rumours that Putin is terminally ill with cancer are growing stronger by the week.
Not that he will pass any moment now, but it would explain his state of mind and self isolation.

[Todd]

A lot of people said the same about Trump in the early days of the (first election's) primaries.

Yes, but Trump has various advantages over Paul.  Everyone laughed in 2015 because everyone knew who Trump was.  That type of name recognition was a gargantuan benefit.  He has a superior stage presence and far more charisma than Paul, and Trump wasn't burdened by an actual Senatorial record that includes things like voting against emergency relief aid for Americans.  Also, the press abetted the former president by providing unparalleled coverage/free campaign exposure that Paul would never get - Trump generated ratings and clicks that Paul could not. 

That Paul could be considered some type of threat indicates how distorted and militarized US foreign policy has become.  Paul wants to avoid war and reduce US involvement in the world, and he wants to reduce the amount of money lavished on the military.  Tom Cotton is more dangerous.  He is extremely intelligent and obscenely hawkish.  Fortunately, unless Cotton hires much, much better handlers, he cannot win the White House.  A silver-tongued Tom Cotton is the risk to watch out for.  She's out there somewhere.

Ukraine war: Military intelligence chief 'optimistic' of Russian defeat saying war 'will be over by end of year'

BTW The rumours that Putin is terminally ill with cancer are growing stronger by the week.
Not that he will pass any moment now, but it would explain his state of mind and self isolation.

Rosy Ukrainian prognostications and gossip may not serve as a sound basis for assessing the geopolitical reality of the war.

[71 dB]

Fresh news: Ibrahim Kalin, the spokesperson for president Erdogan says Turkey won't block Sweden and Finland from getting into NATO, but Turkey wants to negotiate with Sweden and Finland about the necessity to curb terroristic activity especially in Stockholm that compromises the security of Turkey.

I am too stupid myself to understand this terroristic activity aspect. I was so ignorant I didn't even know Turkey will have this much relevance in this game, but now I will learn. I am also more relaxed today after the shock yesterday.

[Todd]

McConnell leads delegation of Republican senators to Kyiv

Cocaine Mitch rides again.

[Florestan]

Fresh news: Ibrahim Kalin, the spokesperson for president Erdogan says Turkey won't block Sweden and Finland from getting into NATO, but Turkey wants to negotiate with Sweden and Finland about the necessity to curb terroristic activity especially in Stockholm that compromises the security of Turkey.

What did I tell you yesterday?

[71 dB]

What did I tell you yesterday?

You have experienced your country joining NATO so you know how it goes. For me this is all new... 

[Que]

Rosy Ukrainian prognostications and gossip may not serve as a sound basis for assessing the geopolitical reality of the war.

It is, obviously, more than just "gossip". These rumours come from intelligence circles and (former) members of Putin's inner circle.

But just as with the "rosy" prognostications, that untill now have beaten the predicted doom and gloom of the naysayers again and again, time will tell.

Meanwhile on the battle field Russia continues to lose ground and battles, and that's a fact.

[Todd]

It is, obviously, more than just "gossip". These rumours come from intelligence circles and (former) members of Putin's inner circle.

It is the very definition of gossip.  Small tidbits of information, some possibly true and some likely not, with end readers unable to divine the facts, and with end readers unaware of the agendas of all of the sources of information.  It is standard wartime propaganda.

But just as with the"rosy" prognostications, that untill now have beaten the predicted doom and gloom of the naysayers again and again, time will tell.

The war has been going on for eight years.  One needs to define what defeat means, and what it means for this war to be over.  When one sees that the person being interviewed uses a phrase like "[Russia] is a horde of people with weapons", one questions how dispassionate the analysis and statements may be.  It is standard wartime propaganda.

[Karl Henning]

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin urged his Russian counterpart Friday to consider a cease-fire in Ukraine during the first discussion between the two leaders since the Russian invasion began nearly three months ago, the Pentagon said.

Austin had not connected with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu since Feb. 18 — six days before Russia commenced its assault on Ukraine — despite repeated attempts by U.S. officials to do so, said a senior U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the Pentagon. The two men spoke for about an hour, and the official characterized their conversation as "professional," but declined to detail what was said.

[Karl Henning]

Opinion  The time is now to plan for the aftermath of war in Ukraine

By David Ignatius
Columnist

Many months of brutal fighting lay ahead in Europe and the Pacific when the United States gathered its partners at Bretton Woods, N.H., in July 1944 to plan the global order that would follow World War II. The Allies knew what institutions the world would need — the future International Monetary Fund, World Bank and United Nations — even before they could see the final victory.

The United States and its NATO partners need to show similar creative imagination now as the war in Ukraine grinds on. The West's leaders may not be able to describe just how or when the awful battle will end, but they know the building blocks of the future: security, prosperity, law and order, democracy. And they can begin the reconstruction process now, even while the fighting still rages.

The world will eventually celebrate a final Ukrainian victory and the expulsion of the last Russian invader. But that could be years, even decades, away. We aren't going to see a peace treaty signed on the battleship Missouri any time soon. For a long while, Ukraine is likely to be a partially divided country, with Russian troops across what's likely to be a hot cease-fire line.

This stalemate and separation would be cruel. But as Ukrainians plan for the next few years, they should consider the examples of South Korea and West Germany — which became wildly successful democracies in the shadow of unfinished wars and despotic adversaries.

Strategic patience will be a weapon, along with Ukraine's fierce defiance. The West should make clear that it will refuse any formal recognition of Russian sovereignty in territory it has seized — just as the United States for generations refused to recognize Soviet control of the Baltic states. Eventually, it will come right.

For now, the goal for Ukraine and its NATO allies should be to contain the Russian offensive within southeastern Ukraine, push Putin's forces back where possible, and make this war too painful for Russia to continue indefinitely. The latest U.S. intelligence reports suggest this is an achievable goal, but one that carries risks for both Ukraine and its allies.

Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, provided a clear summary of current U.S. assessments during Senate testimony on Tuesday. The Ukraine battle "is developing into a war of attrition," she explained. Putin still wants to dominate Kyiv and control all of Ukraine's Black Sea coast. But he lacks the conventional military power to achieve these aims. This "mismatch" between his ambitions and capabilities could produce "a more unpredictable and potentially escalatory trajectory," she said.

The shape of Europe is moving inexorably against Putin because of the folly of his invasion. Finland applied on Thursday to join NATO, and it will likely be followed by Sweden. The Russian foreign ministry threatened "retaliatory steps" against this NATO expansion, and former president Dmitry Medvedev warned darkly that the military squeeze on Russia could be eventually pose a "risk of turning into a full-fledged nuclear war."

This is scare talk. "We believe that Moscow continues to use nuclear rhetoric to deter the United States and the West from increasing lethal aid to Ukraine," Haines said, warning that Moscow could turn up the volume by staging nuclear exercises with ICBMs, bombers and submarines.

Britain is offering Finland and Sweden a defense pact on the way to NATO membership, and when I asked British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace on Thursday whether that meant a "nuclear umbrella," he didn't say no.

Reconstruction should begin now in Ukraine, even as the war continues. President Volodymyr Zelensky has published an online menu for reconstruction, United24. Western nations should begin pledging to meet those requests.

The eventual bill for this war will be immense. A Ukrainian official told me on Wednesday that the eventual cost will exceed $500 billion, according to estimates prepared by the Kyiv School of Economics. The U.S. Agency for International Development and other global agencies are already pumping in billions in humanitarian and other assistance.

This reconstruction process eventually must include Russia, too, paradoxical as that may sound. It won't happen soon. Alexander Gabuev, a senior analyst at the Carnegie Center in Moscow who recently left Russia, told me Thursday that a large majority of Russia supports Vladimir Putin's war. Russia sadly is heading the way of Iran, becoming an outcast, sanctioned nation. But it won't stay that way forever. Eventually, said Gabuev, "there will be a spark."

George Robertson, a former NATO secretary general, shared with me comments that Putin made at NATO's summit with Russia in Rome in 2002. Recalling Russia's long isolation in the Cold War, Putin observed: "Nothing good came of that confrontation between us and the rest of the world. We certainly gained nothing by it." How right he was.

Even as the war continues in Ukraine, I hope President Biden will keep repeating the message: "The Russian people are not our enemy." The United States must continue to illuminate an eventual path of return. Someday, an exhausted, traumatized Russia will come in from the cold.

[JBS]

Fresh news: Ibrahim Kalin, the spokesperson for president Erdogan says Turkey won't block Sweden and Finland from getting into NATO, but Turkey wants to negotiate with Sweden and Finland about the necessity to curb terroristic activity especially in Stockholm that compromises the security of Turkey.

I am too stupid myself to understand this terroristic activity aspect. I was so ignorant I didn't even know Turkey will have this much relevance in this game, but now I will learn. I am also more relaxed today after the shock yesterday.

My guess is that "terroristic activity" refers to Syrians, Kurds, anti-Erdogan Turks, and anyone else Erdogan doesn't like, and that a realistic description wouldn't use the adjective "terroristic".

[Karl Henning]

'Let Someone Whack You': Russian Troops Are Now Deliberately Wounding Themselves to Get Out of Putin's War

[drogulus]

     Russia has committed its best troops and equipment to the Ukraine invasion (and many worst ones as well). As I am pro rather than contrarian it seems likely that the planes and tanks Russia has in reserve are no better than what is being used now, and probably in worse shape. An exception would be the SU-57 Felon stealth fighter which exists in small numbers. It may have been used in Ukraine but I think the Russians are afraid it will be shot down, so Russia is even more reluctant to fly it into danger than they are with their air force generally.

[drogulus]

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin urged his Russian counterpart Friday to consider a cease-fire in Ukraine during the first discussion between the two leaders since the Russian invasion began nearly three months ago, the Pentagon said.

Austin had not connected with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu since Feb. 18 — six days before Russia commenced its assault on Ukraine — despite repeated attempts by U.S. officials to do so, said a senior U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the Pentagon. The two men spoke for about an hour, and the official characterized their conversation as "professional," but declined to detail what was said.

     Let me speculate. Shoigu has not been taking calls from Austin since Feb. 18. The spec part is that the Baku meeting was to arrange for the call to take place.

[drogulus]

     Intelligence chiefs don't give interviews to deliver objective truth to readers. The job of the reader is to divine what objective truth makes such an assessment plausible. If it's just a bunch of propagandistic hogwash it won't fly.

     Budanov said:

"The breaking point will be in the second part of August.

"Most of the active combat actions will have finished by the end of this year.

"As a result, we will renew Ukrainian power in all our territories that we have lost including Donbas and the Crimea."

    Why say this now? The results of the battle of Kharkiv has established the template for future battles. The Ukes can now outrange the Russian artillery and with greater accuracy, too. Furthermore, though the US has not announced that the most advanced artillery ammunition has been sent, it has been.

     The horde comment might refer to the lack of proper command and control which is kind of obvious, though it might be seen as naughty to put it that bluntly.

[LKB]

My guess is that "terroristic activity" refers to Syrians, Kurds, anti-Erdogan Turks, and anyone else Erdogan doesn't like, and that a realistic description wouldn't use the adjective "terroristic".

It's just obfuscated code:

" Let's meet and work out how you'll compensate me for not standing between you and NATO. "

[Florestan]

It's just obfuscated code:

" Let's meet and work out how you'll compensate me for not standing between you and NATO. "

Of course. It's standard diplomacy. 

[drogulus]

     The Chinese ambassador to Ukraine gave a talk to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. It's now censored, but it said:

I. Russia's position in the Russia-Ukraine war has became increasingly passive and unfavorable. Its coming defeat is already clear.

The main reasons why Russia is now heading towards defeat are:

    Russia has been declining ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union, a decline that is first of all a continuation of the pre-dissolution Soviet  Union. It is also related to the failures of the internal and external policies of the Russian ruling clique. This process has been exacerbated by Western economic sanctions which have damaged sectors of the Russian economy. The so-called revival or revitalization of Russia under Putin's leadership is false; it simply does not exist. Russia's decline is evident in its economic, military, technological, political, and social spheres, and has had a serious negative impact on the Russian military and its war effort.

    The failure of the Russian blitzkrieg and the failure to achieve a quick victory signaled the beginning of the Russian defeat. The Russian military's economic and financial strength, which are not commensurate with its status as a so-called military superpower, could not support a high-tech war costing hundreds of millions of dollars a day. The Russian army's poverty-driven defeat was evident everywhere on the battlefield. Every day that the war is delayed is a heavy burden for Russia.

    Russian military and economic advantages over Ukraine have been offset by the resilience of Ukraine and the huge, sustained and effective aid provided to Ukraine. The generational differences between Russia and the U.S. and other NATO countries in the areas of weapons and technology, military concepts, and modes of warfare make the advantages and disadvantages of both sides even more pronounced.

    Modern wars are necessarily hybrid wars, covering military, economic, political, diplomatic, public opinion, propaganda, intelligence, and information. Russia is not only in a passive position on the battlefield, but has lost in other areas. This means that it is only a matter of time before Russia is finally. It is only a matter of time before Russia is finally defeated.

    Russia can no longer decide when and how the war will end. Russia is trying to end the war as soon as possible so it can hold on to what it has gained. This has failed. In this sense, Russia has lost its strategic leadership and initiative.

     There's more, but that's enough for now. Xi can't be happy with what was said and the speech was taken down hours after it appeared online. I maintain that evaluating what Ukrainian intelligence says in interviews must be measured against assessments from other perspectives. The view from China is helpful.

[LKB]

The speech is available here:

https://asiatimes.com/2022/05/rethinking-ukraine-in-china/