Europe at War

[Madiel]

It is also worth noting when talking about "civil wars" in other parts of the world besides Europe that we are often talking about borders that were imposed by Europeans with absolutely no regard to local history.

Having said that, the Kenyan ambassador to the UN made an absolutely beautiful speech about this issue when discussing the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I will see if I can dig it up again (maybe it was shared here at the time?)

Edit: actually it was just before the invasion when Russia recognised the breakaway regions. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jwDWxyLVBxk

[Todd]

Yes I think it's interesting and important to ask not only what's in it for any given country that wants to intervene militarily in conflicts or assist allies,

Most of America's allies act in bad faith.  This is a particular problem with Europeans.  They have agreed to devote 2% of GDP to defense, but almost none do.  This is objective, verifiable fact.  These same countries then demand US action.  They basically act like entitled corporate welfare recipients. 

There is a strong probability that the US will require some type of assistance from allies in future conflicts, but that is rather different than what gets discussed now.  The structure of NATO after the addition of Germany was entirely sufficient to meet American security interests.  Indeed, NATO could have been reduced in size or dissolved and replaced with other, smaller scale security arrangements and US security interests could have been met while also meeting the security interests of allies that matter.  The expansion of NATO was and remains aggressive and established the conditions that led to war.  In other words, NATO failed.  There have been ample warnings for decades against NATO expansion, and there has never been a substantive public debate about US interests and commitments as NATO expanded.  The UK, France, Germany, Turkey, they are much more important than states like the Baltic countries or the prospective new members.  The NATO expansion that began in the late 90s is all cost and no benefit, now or in the future, when considering real world economics and geography.  Further expansion leads to greater tension, which is nearly the exact opposite of stability and peace.  Only war is worse.  As we see now.

China is a more dangerous and more powerful adversary than Russia

First, there is already recession in parts of the world.  The US has experienced two consecutive quarters of GDP decline, though the NBER has not officially called a recession.  Misleading unemployment numbers - the labor force participation rate in the US is still below pre-pandemic levels, which artificially lowers the U3 figure - is one of the well-known reasons for not calling a recession, but any material delay in announcing a recession reduces the credibility of the NBER, which is a shame.  Other negative signs in the US right now include increasing credit card debt and a falling savings rate.

China is more powerful than Russia, but not more dangerous overall, at least yet, because its nuclear arsenal is much smaller and does not have the same deterrent effect.  Identifying China as a greater threat underlies the fundamentally misguided nature of NATO expansion and of Eurocentrism generally.  The challenge - not threat, not yet - China poses does require a pivot to Asia for the US in terms of primary geopolitical focus.  Obama tried to do it.  Trump did it a bit.  Biden is doing it a bit.  It will need to continue.  The overtly hostile tone of many discussions and even legislative actions - some legislation explicitly targets China - is not a good sign for the future.  Even with that, focusing on Europe is a distraction.  The US has limited resources and can do a lot, but there are limits. 

There is much saber rattling now, but Chinese leadership strikes me as more patient.  China could attack Taiwan now, but if it waits until the early- to mid-2030s, then its navy, in particular, will be in a better position, when combined with other weapons systems, to defeat the US navy and to allow for a successful invasion.  Now that is less certain, though the cost will be high to Taiwan and the US if there is a war soon. 

What-If DC War Game Maps Huge Toll of a Future US-China War Over Taiwan

A think-tank exercise with former Pentagon officials foresees grim results.

"The results are showing that under most — though not all — scenarios, Taiwan can repel an invasion," said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, where the war games are being held. "However, the cost will be very high to the Taiwanese infrastructure and economy and to US forces in the Pacific."

can everybody live with an even more imperious China?

They will have to.  It really is that simple.

[drogulus]

     I saw the first pic taken from the ground at the Crimean air base, showing the wreck of a plane (identified as a SU-24). The Ukes claim 9 planes were destroyed. They also say the attack was carried out by special forces. I understand this to mean infiltrators, perhaps assisted by locals.

     Ah, I googled SU-24 and yes, that's the destroyed plane.

     

[MusicTurner]

     I saw the first pic taken from the ground at the Crimean air base, showing the wreck of a plane (identified as a SU-24). The Ukes claim 9 planes were destroyed. They also say the attack was carried out by special forces. I understand this to mean infiltrators, perhaps assisted by locals.

     Ah, I googled SU-24 and yes, that's the destroyed plane.

   

Likely more - several dozens of airplanes were parked there, as shown by satellite photos hours before, and posted pictures now show damage to cars and housing blocks far away from the airbase. New satellite photos tomorow might indicate more, but obviously there's been a lot of  'cleaning up' in the meanwhile.

[drogulus]

     One thing the US can do, and perhaps has done, is to discourage Ukraine from invading Russia. However, such a move might cause Russia to embrace the idea of negotiations. All it would take would be a small bit of territory just beyond the border. Both combatants understand the value of facts on the ground, and I don't see why the Ukes can't adopt the same stance as the Russians.

     Russia is attacking the nuclear power plant it occupies. If Russia can't have it, they'll destroy it. I guess this is Russian for "negotiation".
     

[MusicTurner]

A few updates:

The Ukrainian attack on the Russian airbase on Crimea today, not sabotage or accidents it seems (since for instance there were two large explosions occurring simulatenously in separate areas), suggests that they have now got the long-range missiles that can go up to 300 km, also making places like the Sevastopol naval base and possibly the Crimea Bridge vulnerable.


Some analysts are suggesting that all the hype about re-conquering Kherson, and the resulting Russian concentration there, is a decoy for an attack elsewhere, such as at Melitopol, where the Ukrainians getting access to the seashore would split the Russian zone into two, making logistics much more difficult for the invaders.

Apparently the Ukrainians are now attacking Chongar, 160 km from the front line, that has one of only three bridge connections from the north (in this case near Melitopol), into Crimea. But the attack didn't hit the bridge itself. Some think that the attack was about Russian army stock there, that had been verified recently, not the bridge.

Also, the reports about Russians fleeing Crimea, both tourists and people who were given confiscated houses there after 2014, are too many to be merely propaganda. If the Chongar bridge will be attacked (there are big explosion clouds), this will cause further concern among Russians, including troops of course.

Ukraine today repeats statements about taking back Crimea by military means, and the taking out of the Crimea bridge being necessary for that.

[drogulus]

     Somebody videoed the traffic jam at the bridge. That's what I saw.

     

     Chongar is the red thingy.

     Crimea is no longer an effective base from which to support the Russian southern front, as it was in the early phase of the war.

[Spotted Horses]

By Huggy Bear's  logic, the American colonists should just have paid the damn Tea Tax.

Yes. If The Colonies had not rebelled against the tea tax we might still be slaves of England, just like Canada. 

[MusicTurner]

     Somebody videoed the traffic jam at the bridge. That's what I saw.

(...)

Yes, there are several such videos, and one with a Russian, youtubing family, who started doing weekly features of their life one week before the invasion, now with a report from driving in the Crimea bridge queues, the woman starting to cry because their wonderful stay in Crimea is over prematurely. Not a word in their reports about the war, land theft or atrocities next door though.

[drogulus]

     https://www.youtube.com/v/tt1SQrWafOE

     "It was like we were living at home"

     Yeah, but you weren't. Bye bye.

[MusicTurner]

Likely more - several dozens of airplanes were parked there, as shown by satellite photos hours before, and posted pictures now show damage to cars and housing blocks far away from the airbase. New satellite photos tomorow might indicate more, but obviously there's been a lot of  'cleaning up' in the meanwhile.

Bellingcat's research including newest satellite photos now confirms many planes (between 11 and 15) and buildings destroyed. I can't post links these days, but it's Toler and Higgins tweet series, from Bellingcat. Also Petri Makela.

[Karl Henning]

Yes. If The Colonies had not rebelled against the tea tax we might still be slaves of England, just like Canada. 

Further underscoring the existential threat to Ukrainians.

[Madiel]

Yes. If The Colonies had not rebelled against the tea tax we might still be slaves of England, just like Canada. 

Hey, there's a whole prison colony over here that might owe its existence to your rebellion.

And now it's us that get to beat the English at their own sports, you went and invented different ones.

[LKB]

Hey, there's a whole prison colony over here that might owe its existence to your rebellion.

And now it's us that get to beat the English at their own sports, you went and invented different ones.

We're tricky, sometimes...

[LKB]

     One thing the US can do, and perhaps has done, is to discourage Ukraine from invading Russia. However, such a move might cause Russia to embrace the idea of negotiations. All it would take would be a small bit of territory just beyond the border. Both combatants understand the value of facts on the ground, and I don't see why the Ukes can't adopt the same stance as the Russians.

     Russia is attacking the nuclear power plant it occupies. If Russia can't have it, they'll destroy it. I guess this is Russian for "negotiation".
   

Ukraine should be striking Russian military assets within Russian borders, wherever possible.

[drogulus]

Bellingcat's research including newest satellite photos now confirms many planes (between 11 and 15) and buildings destroyed. I can't post links these days, but it's Toler and Higgins tweet series, from Bellingcat. Also Petri Makela.

     This will help:

     https://www.youtube.com/v/LBpzd1zJtH4

[drogulus]

     There has been an attack with as many as 8 explosions at an airbase in Belarus.

     No one knows who did it, right? Maybe it was 8 accidents, like the 3 accidents in Crimea.

     On further consideration, a Russian false flag operation is not out of the question. Ukraine doesn't want Belorussian intervention and Russia is desperate for it.

     If there is no serious damage to Russian planes or other vital equipment that would be suspicious. Another factor would be parts from US missiles paraded before cameras. That would clinch it. Ukraine would not violate the restriction placed on them by the US, which is to only use such weapons inside Ukraine.

[LKB]

     There has been an attack with as many as 8 explosions at an airbase in Belarus.

     No one knows who did it, right? Maybe it was 8 accidents, like the 3 accidents in Crimea.

Interesting. I'm thinking it's a Russian ( or Belarusian) false-flag op to give the Belarus president popular support for offering additional aid to the Russians.

[MusicTurner]

Interesting. I'm thinking it's a Russian ( or Belarusian) false-flag op to give the Belarus president popular support for offering additional aid to the Russians.

The official Belarus explanation about the explosions seems to be that it was a 'fire'.

Ukraine is systematically taking out Russian ammunition deposits, air force power, air defenses, and special military items that are difficult or impossible to replace. Plus some strategic infrastructure. It's a strategy that will make an oncoming offensive easier, potentially enclose weakened Russian units in traps, and also strengthen the Ukrainian negotiation positions.

Not disclosing what type of weapons that were used is meant to cause extra confusion in the Russian military, whose air defense capabilities already appear poor.

The UK is now delivering a further series of HIMARS-like weapons, but able to fire twice the number of missiles per round.

An international conference today in Copenhagen is meant to coordinate Western arms and economical government donations from 20 countries.

[Madiel]

Interesting. I'm thinking it's a Russian ( or Belarusian) false-flag op to give the Belarus president popular support for offering additional aid to the Russians.

If you have to choose between a stuff-up and a conspiracy, it's usually a stuff-up. At least in the public sector.