Europe at War

[JBS]

Newsweek has been for some time as much of a far right/MAGA outlet as Fox News.
Time leans fairly hard in the other direction, but unlike Newsweek it still tries to live up to its reputation as objective.

[milk]

Newsweek has been for some time as much of a far right/MAGA outlet as Fox News.
Time leans fairly hard in the other direction, but unlike Newsweek it still tries to live up to its reputation as objective.

I was reading from the two links on the bottom, not Newsweek. It doesn't necessarily have any bearing on this war though. It's just the way it's covered. But Zelensky doesn't need to be some sort of saint for Putin to be horrible.

[Todd]

It's notable that US officials have also publicly claimed to be restraining Ukraine from directly attacking Russian territory in various ways, and are refusing to supply Ukraine with some of the weapons it's been requesting.

The US and Russia are engaged in a proxy war.  If some US and NATO made systems are used against Russia in Ukraine, the Russians will view that as an escalation.  The same applies to any incursions into Russia.  Russia is of course being vague about what constitutes true redlines. 

The main purpose is maintaining stability and security in Europe, and yes, maintaining the global status quo without triggering a full scale and direct armed conflict between NATO and Russia.

Lloyd Austin publicly stated that one of America's goals is to permanently weaken Russia.  That is not maintaining the status quo.  It is quite striking that people disregard open, public statements made by some of the senior most leaders in this proxy war.  Also, further expansion of NATO is, by defintion, not maintaining the status quo.

The US is protecting its economic and geopolitical interests here.

It is not clear this is the case.  The US has no economic or strategic interests in Ukraine.  This type of statement is too vague to have value.

And US and European interests have been aligned since the 1st World War.

Not really.  First, US economic relations with Europe have been centered on the UK and France for centuries, and since the Treaty of Washington, financial ties between the UK and the US have been of paramount importance.  Indeed, at the outset of WWI, one of the main interests the US had was the financial relationship between Wall Street and the City of London and the possible disruptions that German victory might bring.  There was no arms industry as is now known at that time.  Second, in the wake of WWI, the US demobilized, put together the first bail-out plan for the Old World, and then stayed out of the League of Nations.  What is now commonly referred to as some long-term shared set of interests between the US and Europe dates to the establishment of NATO and the Bretton Woods system.

Any war is good for the weapons industry, both in the US and Europe. The claim that war is instigated or perpetuated in the interest of the weapons industry, is a classic argument.

There is much more to it.  Eisenhower's assessment of the military-industrial complex remains one of the soundest analyses of the pernicious effects of permanent militarization of foreign policy.  Not only weapons manufacturers benefit, but so do all interested institutions, public and private, as well as individual careerists within those institutions.

I was joking. I've no idea.

I know.  The point was that people who resort to name checking Tucker Carlson are rehashing a variant of the Fox News! "argument".  People who do that got nothing.

The Pandora papers go in all directions. If I remember correctly, they're a totally nonpartisan source of mud on world leaders. It's interesting what gets covered and what doesn't.

The Panama and Pandora Papers contained all manner of salacious details about all sorts of people.  They contained far more boring, mundane non-revelations about how the wealthy exploit existing law to avoid (not evade) taxes, remove all liability, and achieve anonymity for all manner of reasons.  This is too boring and complicated to generate juicy headlines or quick prosecutions.  Obama called for a variety of reforms in the wake of the Panama Papers.  It is worth noting that the world leading tax haven and zero employee LLC capital of the world is the US, and Delaware, home state to the current President, leads in this country. 

Newsweek has been for some time as much of a far right/MAGA outlet as Fox News.
Time leans fairly hard in the other direction, but unlike Newsweek it still tries to live up to its reputation as objective.

Neither statement corresponds to what media bias review websites report.

But Zelensky doesn't need to be some sort of saint for Putin to be horrible.

Zelensky is a POS.  Putin is a bigger POS.

[drogulus]

Essentially, American military aid is mostly about providing a direct handout to American weapons manufacturers, secondarily about preserving the global status quo and avoiding upsetting things too much by e.g. actually inciting a US-Russian war or allowing the Ukrainian government to collapse, tertiarily about showing off American weapons in real live-fire conditions to ensure future profits from other customers. Additional possible benefit of creating a long-term client state/captive market entirely financially & militarily dependent on the USA. Defending Ukraine seems to come in around fifth place.

     This doesn't explain why the US has been so reluctant to increase my profits. Why do I get thin gruel instead of the rich rewards I deserve? Is it because preserving the status quo takes precedence?

     I want my weapons tested in front of the whole world to increase sales, and if Russia refuses to invade more countries I'll pay my people more to do it themselves!! Somebody fetch me people!

     I know how "really about" works. You unweave the rainbow of motivations that operate in policy decision, find a hue that is a bit more nauseous than others and declare you've found out the rainbow is "really about" that.

     Let's recap. The US won't incite Russia to invade Ukraine or anyone else because it will upset the status quo. But if it decides to trigger a Russian invasion it will be to increase profits which are really handouts. The most successful defensive alliance in history is really about a bunch of bad stuff.

     Next we'll explore that hidden well of altruism in Putinist warmongery. You won't believe what comes in fifth!

     No, really, you won't.

[Que]

Obviously things are not going well for Russia...

Oleksii Reznikov, the Minister of Defence of Ukraine, has warned the Russians that their leadership is preparing for a new "wave" of mobilisation and planning to close the borders within a week.

Quote:
"On the eve of the New Year, I want to address the citizens of Russia who are liable for military service. First of all, this concerns residents of major Russian cities. I know for sure that you have about one week when there is at least some choice left.

In early January, the Russian authorities will close the borders for men, then declare martial law and begin another wave of mobilisation. The borders will also be closed in Belarus."

[Madiel]

Obviously things are not going well for Russia...

Oleksii Reznikov, the Minister of Defence of Ukraine, has warned the Russians that their leadership is preparing for a new "wave" of mobilisation and planning to close the borders within a week.

Quote:
"On the eve of the New Year, I want to address the citizens of Russia who are liable for military service. First of all, this concerns residents of major Russian cities. I know for sure that you have about one week when there is at least some choice left.

In early January, the Russian authorities will close the borders for men, then declare martial law and begin another wave of mobilisation. The borders will also be closed in Belarus."

I mean, there are two possibilities here. One is that it's true. The other is that it's clever Ukrainian propaganda to induce Russian men to flee the country and deprive the Russian army of future resources.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Obviously things are not going well for Russia...

Oleksii Reznikov, the Minister of Defence of Ukraine, has warned the Russians that their leadership is preparing for a new "wave" of mobilisation and planning to close the borders within a week.

Quote:
"On the eve of the New Year, I want to address the citizens of Russia who are liable for military service. First of all, this concerns residents of major Russian cities. I know for sure that you have about one week when there is at least some choice left.

In early January, the Russian authorities will close the borders for men, then declare martial law and begin another wave of mobilisation. The borders will also be closed in Belarus."

I mean, there are two possibilities here. One is that it's true. The other is that it's clever Ukrainian propaganda to induce Russian men to flee the country and deprive the Russian army of future resources.

Interesting quote and comments too!  May I ask where you read this Que?

Another possibility:  that the Ukrainians are trying to encourage further protests and revolting by the Russian people?

PD

[Fëanor]

Essentially, American military aid is mostly about providing a direct handout to American weapons manufacturers, secondarily about preserving the global status quo and avoiding upsetting things too much by e.g. actually inciting a US-Russian war or allowing the Ukrainian government to collapse, tertiarily about showing off American weapons in real live-fire conditions to ensure future profits from other customers. Additional possible benefit of creating a long-term client state/captive market entirely financially & militarily dependent on the USA. Defending Ukraine seems to come in around fifth place.

This is mostly complete nonsense for reasons pointed out by @Que.  The USA has been extremely hesitant about sending latest weapons, especially offensive weapons to Ukraine.

A few days ago the USA sent stocks of Russian-caliber artillery shell to Ukraine because, of course, Ukraine is stuck with a lot of old, Soviet era equipment.

When I think of it, one of the ironies of this war is that Ukraine is being eased into the use of, and reliance, on NATO-style equipment.  Did Putin and his military lackeys anticipate that?  Humm, maybe not.

The war has been a total fail on Putin's part.

• He assumed quick victory in couple of weeks offence;
• He assume that the NATO would let invasion pass on account of the quick, fete accompli victory;
• He hope NATO resolve would be weaken on account of European countries' reliance on Russian gas and oil.
• He hoped to keep Ukraine permanently out of the EU and NATO -- this is the only aspect in which he has the least hope going forward.

That last hope of Putin's should be denied him.

[Florestan]

fete accompli

Ahem... it's fait accompli, actually. 

[Que]

Interesting quote and comments too!  May I ask where you read this Que?

Another possibility:  that the Ukrainians are trying to encourage further protests and revolting by the Russian people?

PD

There are several sources on the speech, but you can watch it yourself:

Naturally the Ukrainians are trying to encourage eligible Russian men to dodge the draft. But they have no reason to lie: lie once, and nobody is ever going to believe you again. Particularly the Russian public.

This is known as credibility. Something that went very much out of fashion in current politics, but it is an extremely powerful tool. Particularly when your opponent is continuously lying.

BTW the 5th of January is mentioned as the possible date for the Russian measure. Russians that fight in Ukraine are now exempted from income tax and can have their sperm frozen in. What could possibly be the problem?

[71 dB]

Obviously things are not going well for Russia...

How could things go well for Russia when their vision for the future is not only unrealistic, but also lunatic?

Oleksii Reznikov, the Minister of Defence of Ukraine, has warned the Russians that their leadership is preparing for a new "wave" of mobilisation and planning to close the borders within a week.

Quote:
"On the eve of the New Year, I want to address the citizens of Russia who are liable for military service. First of all, this concerns residents of major Russian cities. I know for sure that you have about one week when there is at least some choice left.

In early January, the Russian authorities will close the borders for men, then declare martial law and begin another wave of mobilisation. The borders will also be closed in Belarus."

I'd say some of this is Ukrainian propaganda, but it is clever propaganda and not a blatant lie. Mobilisation in Russia is a thing to worry about.

[Todd]

A Free World, If You Can Keep It

Ukraine and American Interests

Bobbie Kagan's take on US interests in the Russo-Ukrainian War.  Parts of this essay are surprisingly sloppy - eg, the bit about American support for the second Iraq War while leaving out that the primary public premise was a lie.  Interests are not enumerated, but rather liberalism and such are on the line. In other words, the essay adheres to neocon dogma.  Neocon dogma is now embraced the world over.  The essay also offers a touching case of a husband publicly protecting the honor of his wife, who just happens to be one of the people most responsible for this mess.

A merit to Kagan for pointing out that FDR was openly interventionist prior to Pearl Harbor, but a demerit for sticking to the historically and intellectually dishonest trope of only referring to the Hawaiian port and not to Japan's attack on the American Empire - and yes, it was a proper colonial empire at the time.  A bigger demerit to the author for sticking with the false analogy to WWII.  But, neocons.

[Que]

I'd say some of this is Ukrainian propaganda, but it is clever propaganda and not a blatant lie. Mobilisation in Russia is a thing to worry about.

Since the war has hardly affected Russians in any other way, for now the mandatory draft seems to be the main thing they worry about. And the economy of course, which has been patched up til now.

[drogulus]

     The refusal to help Ukraine, and the willingness to help it a little bit but not all that much, are the result of dogma. It goes like this.

     The early stages of a war are not our business. In fact (dogma), it's only a war for mongers. If you love peace, it isn't one, it's either 1) a special military operation or 2) not our business but definitely our fault. Both are true.

     It reminds me a little of theistic apologetics, attitude masquerading as thought.

     Everything America does is wrong, and wrong is defined as everything America does.

[Florestan]

Everything America does is wrong, and wrong is defined as everything America does.

This reminds me of someone, but I can't remember of whom... 

[prémont]

Ahem... it's fait accompli, actually. 

Maybe he meant:

fête accomplie

[Fëanor]

Maybe he meant:

fête accomplie

Yes, I meant fait accompli.

Fête accomplie?  I hope everyone had fun.

[Florestan]

Maybe he meant:

fête accomplie

Good one.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

There are several sources on the speech, but you can watch it yourself:

BTW the 5th of January is mentioned as the possible date for the Russian measure. Russians that fight in Ukraine are now exempted from income tax and can have their sperm frozen in. What could possibly be the problem?

Thank you for the link.  I'll watch it a bit later.

...and exempt from income tax?  Hadn't heard that one before. 

PD

[LKB]

In a turn of events which should surprise no-one, it would seem that the training received by at least some of the recently conscripted Russian troops has been somewhat deficient:

" Russia has said a new year missile attack that killed at least 89 Russian soldiers happened because troops were using mobile phones, defying a ban. "

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64159045