Europe at War

[Todd]

I'm still in this same spot of simply not understanding why the majority here seemingly thinks Todd doesn't honestly believe what he's saying

Simple, what I write does not conform to their simplistic, (falsely) moralistic, neocon worldview. 

[drogulus]

The article doesn't really answer the question it raises: why now?

For France this is a major shift from Macron's initial approach to push for negotiations. Same for Germany, that has advocated restraint to avoid escalation - in the hope of a negotiated settlement.

What has changed is the realisation that Putin will not back down under any circumstance. Putin's continuous escalation and full scale attack on civilian infrastructure brought the message home that Putin rather destroys Ukraine entirely than make any concession.

France and Germany realised that the longer this war lasts, the more destruction and casualties on both sides there will be. The sooner this war ends, the better. Further Ukrainian military successes, like an attack on Crimea, might persuade Putin or any successor to make concessions after all, or not.

    I don't think there's anything special about now versus then. Somebody had to move first. It wasn't going to be Germany as their policy is explicitly to follow the leader. The US position is to encourage the public to see NATO behave like Big Boys who can act in their own interest. Support for the alliance structure depends on the alliance being seen to function as intended.

    The world knows Macron wants to be the guy. This is his moment and he won't throw it away.

    Sometimes a cigar is a cigar. Ukraine has performed well beyond expectations and policy is more supportive. We've gone from an inevitable Russian victory to something very close to inevitable Russian defeat.

   

[Todd]

Remember the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage?  Well, per WaPo:

No conclusive evidence Russia is behind Nord Stream attack; World leaders were quick to blame Moscow for explosions along the undersea natural gas pipelines. But some Western officials now doubt the Kremlin was responsible.

But, but, but how can that be?  Oh yes, the Ukrainians did it.  They sent two 100 meter long+ ships to the area, controlled by NATO (ie, the US Navy directing naval and coast guard forces in the region), and done did blowed up the pipelines secretly.  Yeah, that's what happened. 

Good news for financially interested parties involved in the pipelines: Nord Stream 2 pipeline firm gets 6-month stay of bankruptcy.  Alas, not being able to attribute blame will limit the ability to recover damages.  That certainly was not part of the planning process. Oh well. 

[milk]

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/01/05/how-elon-musks-satellites-have-saved-ukraine-and-changed-warfare

It is one of the wonders of the world — or, more accurately, off the world. The Starlink constellation currently consists of 3,335 active satellites; roughly half of all working satellites are Starlinks. In the past six months new satellites have been added at a rate of more than 20 a week, on average. SpaceX, the company which created Starlink, is offering it as a way of providing off-grid high-bandwidth internet access to consumers in 45 countries. A million or so have become subscribers.

And a huge part of the traffic flowing through the system currently comes from Ukraine. Starlink has become an integral part of the country's military and civil response to Russia's invasion. Envisaged as a celestial side-hustle that might help pay for the Mars missions dear to the founder of SpaceX, Elon Musk, it is not just allowing Ukraine to fight back; it is shaping how it does so, revealing the military potential of near-ubiquitous communications. "It's a really new and interesting change," says John Plumb, America's assistant secretary of defence for space policy.

[Todd]

The Starlink constellation currently consists of 3,335 active satellites

Is Musk a good billionaire or a bad billionaire?  I can't remember.

[SimonNZ]

...or is that once again giving him the credit for the work of others?

[milk]

Maybe if you weren't ignoring me completely, you would have seen some of my answers.

But because you're ignoring me completely, as is Todd, there is no hope of breaking out of this circle of you popping in and saying you don't understand.

Seriously. The last couple of times you've basically asked this exact same question I've tried to answer it. But as you're ignoring me you don't see the answer, and then you come back and just ask the exact same questions again.

Plenty of people responded last time. Yours may or may not have been the most perspicacious. It is roughly the same question because people roughly have the same reaction to Todd. We all have to pick and choose on what we spend time. I do try to read through what everyone writes and answer if I feel I have something worthwhile to say or if a comment cuts through. You want me to respond to you. Maybe later. Right now I'm off to a firefighters' performance at the park. My kids are champing at the bit!
But as far as I can see, many mainstream mavens, from Chomsky to Mearsheimer to the CATO institute to Kissinger see the U.S. as at least partially culpable here so Todd's view shouldn't be treated as something from another planet. I'd have to reread your comments.

[drogulus]

    Another Russian official, Magomed Abdulayev, a close ally of ex-Russian president Dmitry Medvedev died in suspicious circumstances. A car dying of radiation poisoning fell out of a window and landed on him.

[LKB]

Another Russian official, Magomed Abdulayev, a close ally of ex-Russian president Dmitry Medvedev died in suspicious circumstances. A car dying of radiation poisoning fell out of a window and landed on him.

Hate it when that happens...

[Que]

I don't think there's anything special about now versus then. Somebody had to move first. It wasn't going to be Germany as their policy is explicitly to follow the leader. The US position is to encourage the public to see NATO behave like Big Boys who can act in their own interest. Support for the alliance structure depends on the alliance being seen to function as intended.

    The world knows Macron wants to be the guy. This is his moment and he won't throw it away.

    Sometimes a cigar is a cigar. Ukraine has performed well beyond expectations and policy is more supportive. We've gone from an inevitable Russian victory to something very close to inevitable Russian defeat.   

Here in Europe I think the prevalent line of thinking was that once Putin met tough resistance, he would back off. This is why sofar the focus of the military aid was on defensive weapons. This now shifts to offensive weapons, which required a mental shift particularly difficult for Germany. But it doesn't really matter, and you're correct that Macron took the lead. The French-German axis, as we call in in Europe, still works.

Another Russian official, Magomed Abdulayev, a close ally of ex-Russian president Dmitry Medvedev died in suspicious circumstances. A car dying of radiation poisoning fell out of a window and landed on him.

Jeez.. When Putin finally kicks the bucket himself, there won't be any oligarchs left! 

[71 dB]

A car dying of radiation poisoning fell out of a window and landed on him.

Didn't you mean person? Then again, a car landing on someone is far more deadly than a person landing on someone...

[Que]

It's High Time to Prepare for Russia's Collapse (foreignpolicy.com)


Indeed....

[Todd]

It's High Time to Prepare for Russia's Collapse (foreignpolicy.com)

Indeed....

That's from Foreign Policy, arguably the most unabashedly hawkish specialist press outlet covering international relations.  It routinely advocates for grossly immoral policy.  That the author complains about Russia trying to install a puppet government in Ukraine while failing to mention that Zelensky is a puppet, and even received a purportedly prestigious title from Time for being an obedient puppet, demonstrates the bias.

What civilian body count will sate the bloodlust of hawks?  50K?  75K?  Nah, it's gotta be six figures.  100K it is.  Hawks are 100Kers. 

[Fëanor]

That's from Foreign Policy, arguably the most unabashedly hawkish specialist press outlet covering international relations.  It routinely advocates for grossly immoral policy.  That the author complains about Russia trying to install a puppet government in Ukraine while failing to mention that Zelensky is a puppet, and even received a purportedly prestigious title from Time for being an obedient puppet, demonstrates the bias.

What civilian body count will sate the bloodlust of hawks?  50K?  75K?  Nah, it's gotta be six figures.  100K it is.  Hawks are 100Kers. 

Projection:  such a sad psychological phenomenon.

[Todd]

Projection:  such a sad psychological phenomenon.

This could be a good rejoinder if you possessed a proper grasp of the concept of projection.

[drogulus]

Indeed, the combination of a failed war abroad and a fractious, strained system at home is making an eruption of some kind increasingly likely with each passing day. It doesn't matter if this is good or bad for the West, it is an outcome that policymakers must be prepared for.


    It would be immoral to prepare for the outcome. What part of Don't Study War No More doesn't the author understand?

   

Didn't you mean person? Then again, a car landing on someone is far more deadly than a person landing on someone...

    What?? Are you saying a person crashed into an armored limo and killed the guy?

    Can we be serious and study war just a little?

    Shouldn't we get an answer from Trump- and TuckerPutinists concerning Russian peace advocates. Out of respect for the dead and those soon to be, aren't we keen observers owed an explanation for the lack of support for the most important anti-war faction on the planet?

   

[71 dB]

What?? Are you saying a person crashed into an armored limo and killed the guy?

Sorry, but I am totally confused of what you are trying to say. Cars, radiation poinsoning, Windows... I don't know what to make of that!

[Karl Henning]

Sorry, but I am totally confused of what you are trying to say. Cars, radiation poinsoning, Windows... I don't know what to make of that!

It's not your fault, buddy. Ernie is characteristically oblique.

[71 dB]

It's not your fault, buddy. Ernie is characteristically oblique.

He certainly is!

[Fëanor]

This could be a good rejoinder if you possessed a proper grasp of the concept of projection.

Good enough I should say:  I'm thinking of you a being a psychological Russian puppet and projecting that on Zelensky.

In any case were he any kind of puppet, Zelensky would be much better a Western puppet than a Russian one.  (Putin obviously wants to reduce Ukraine to a Russian puppet.)