Europe at War

[SimonNZ]

Why did Russia not invade the Baltic States when they declared their intention to join NATO and NATO officially accepted their candidacy?

This seems a completely reasonable question, Todd, and not at all a "red herring".

I'd be interested in hearing you give the kind of sincere and considered answer that milk thinks you're famous for, rather than the ducking with snark that I do.

[SimonNZ]

An interesting side note:
Russian trolls on Twitter had little influence on 2016 voters
A study finds minimal impact from Russian influence operations on Twitter in the Trump-Clinton presidential race
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/09/russian-trolls-twitter-had-little-influence-2016-voters/

So? The issue is that they tried and that they were encouraged.

Also from that article:

"But the study doesn't go so far as to say that Russia had no influence on people who voted for President Donald Trump.

It doesn't examine other social media, like the much-larger Facebook.Nor does it address Russian hack-and-leak operations. Another major study in 2018 by University of Pennsylvania communications professor Kathleen Hall Jamieson suggested those probably played a significant role in the 2016 race's outcome.Lastly, it doesn't suggest that foreign influence operations aren't a threat at all."

[drogulus]

Your views on America coincide to a great extent with those of people who do hate Anerica.

Your views on Russia and its actions coincide to a great extent with those of Putin's.

    It's a coincidence. I think there's an explanation, but you won't find it easy to grok. Certain Westerners hate any activity that makes government big. Among those are war, but they also include scientific and technological projects on a large scale. Since the Bronze Age these have been government projects, and always will be.

    Another large scale activity is a genuine rule of law state. It's true that ruler states can be big, while democratic states always are. Democratic capitalism is labor intensive. You need regulation and lots of it to maintain competitive markets, the kind people think of when they say "free".

    This ideology is scarce outside the US, or maybe N. America. It's kind of an inverse chauvinism.

[Fëanor]

My mind does not need to be made up.  Facts are facts.  George W Bush proposed Ukrainian and Georgian NATO membership in 2008.  This was highly provocative.  The formal process for Ukrainian membership has not started.  NATO has aggressively and recklessly expanded eastward five times since the end of the Cold War.  Bush's suggestions were the most extreme, aggressive form of security diplomacy in the post-Cold War world.  Pro-war posters on this board obviously and passionately support neocon policies, proposed or implemented.

{*~yawn~*}  We're grinding our gears, No?



What maybe NATO expansion "provoked" was angst and resentment amongst Russian militarists, but certainly no fears of immanent invasion.

[Todd]

What perhaps NATO expansion "provoked" was angst and resentment amongst Russian militarists, but certainly no fears of immanent invasion.

NATO expansion is provocative, always has been, and Russians have been clear about that.  Multiple voices in the west have warned about it, as well.  That the US continued to push for NATO expansion in the face of protests indicates the aggressiveness of US policy, the hubris of US leaders, the cravenness of European leaders, and the gullibility of members of the public who now openly embrace neocon dogma.

[drogulus]

    If Putin had decided the odds of success in Ukraine were too iffy, that would be what NATO provoked.

    What Putin decides defines provocation. Weakness could provoke him. Strength provokes him, because everything must or the presup fails. Uncertainty provokes him because he's a gamblin' man.

    Everything is a dollar in the dollar store of ideology.

    Let's try to be a little consistent, please. Obama thought helping the Ukes would provoke Putin. Trump was on the other side, also not helpful. So many unhelpful years went by until Putin couldn't stand it any more. It would be fun to speculate that the NATO countries laid a super ingenious trap......

    A consistent view would be weakness provokes the aggressor. In this case weakness did all the provocation work needed. Once you've explained something rationally it's OK to stop.

[Todd]

No. The US are like one of the doormen team at the steps to a trendy nightclub on a busy Friday night. Everyone is clamouring to get in and it's not the doormen trying to drum up business.

Being a vassal has its privileges. 

[Herman]

Having scanned a couple of pages of this topic I'm really puzzled what it is about.

I don't think the title quite covers it.

Perhaps Troll Crap Shoot would be more apt.

It's about absolutely nothing.

[Todd]

Having scanned a couple of pages of this topic I'm really puzzled what it is about.

I don't think the title quite covers it.

Perhaps Troll Crap Shoot would be more apt.

It's about absolutely nothing.

The last sentence is self-referential.

[Madiel]

Please, make up your mind: it'either proper, time-onsuming, difficult diplomacy or it's a fiction of legalism. You can't have both.

While you're at it, please make up your mind about what you claim, too. You deny having claimed that Ukraine's putative accession to NATO triggered the war, yet before this denial you claimed that:

and after this denial you claimed that

So, you haven't claimed what you actually claimed. Or you have claimed what you actually didn't claim.

Or: he's just being a troll.

Edit: I mean, there really are 2 options at this point. Either Todd is not savvy enough to realise that he's being wildly inconsistent in his attempts to argue. Or he knows perfectly well that he's being wildly inconsistent and that consistency is irrelevant in his attempts to bait. My money is generally on the latter, but I'm open to the possibility that Todd himself hasn't seen through the problems with the positions he parrots.

[milk]

So? The issue is that they tried and that they were encouraged.

Also from that article:

"But the study doesn't go so far as to say that Russia had no influence on people who voted for President Donald Trump.

It doesn't examine other social media, like the much-larger Facebook.Nor does it address Russian hack-and-leak operations. Another major study in 2018 by University of Pennsylvania communications professor Kathleen Hall Jamieson suggested those probably played a significant role in the 2016 race's outcome.Lastly, it doesn't suggest that foreign influence operations aren't a threat at all."

It's an issue that anyone can try. I think the thing is that the MsM had trouble believing anyone could vote for trump (heck, I felt that way!) so they invented these outsized influences. The candidates spent billions. Clinton lost because of Clinton. But I agree it's a worry that any influence operations exist.

There are some who say that the American left gave Putin a huge gift by building him up as an all-powerful figure who decides American elections. The argument goes that this earned him more cred in Russia as well.

[Todd]

It's an issue that anyone can try. I think the thing is that the MsM had trouble believing anyone could vote for trump (heck, I felt that way!) so they invented these outsized influences. The candidates spent billions. Clinton lost because of Clinton. But I agree it's a worry that any influence operations exist.

There are some who say that the American left gave Putin a huge gift by building him up as an all-powerful figure who decides American elections. The argument goes that this earned him more cred in Russia as well.

Russia has been an American bête noire since 1917, with only a brief period of cooperation during the big one.  Russia is a useful enemy.

Some people will believe the various Russia conspiracy theories of the last few years until the day they die, evidence to the contrary be damned. 

[milk]

Russia has been an American bête noire since 1917, with only a brief period of cooperation during the big one.  Russia is a useful enemy.

Some people will believe the various Russia conspiracy theories of the last few years until the day they die, evidence to the contrary be damned.

Makes sense. I probably shouldn't have said "invented." It's some kind of group think. Propaganda is like that.

[Madiel]

And still, the insistence is on talking about the American relationship with Russia. Not the relationship of countries near Russia, especially Ukraine, with Russia.

[milk]

And still, the insistence is on talking about the American relationship with Russia. Not the relationship of countries near Russia, especially Ukraine, with Russia.

It's discourteous to come online and tell people to talk about what you think they should talk about. People decide for themselves what they think is relevant. Talk about whatever you'd like but don't tell people what they should or shouldn't say is important.
Just kidding.

[Madiel]

It's discourteous to come online and tell people to talk about what you think they should talk about. People decide for themselves what they think is relevant. Talk about whatever you'd like but don't tell people what they should or shouldn't say is important.
Just kidding.

You do realise that most of your contribution to the thread was popping up from time to time to tell us how we weren't interacting with Todd correctly?

I'm just trying to get the thread back on topic. I'm on the verge of advocating for the American politics thread to be reopened so that Todd and anyone else can blather on about how everything is the USA government's fault to their heart's content.

That would be the perfect place to talk about American international relations. This is not supposed to be a thread about American international relations.

[milk]

You do realise that most of your contribution to the thread was popping up from time to time to tell us how we weren't interacting with Todd correctly?

I'm just trying to get the thread back on topic. I'm on the verge of advocating for the American politics thread to be reopened so that Todd and anyone else can blather on about how everything is the USA government's fault to their heart's content.

We'll I'm sure your advocacy means a lot and your efforts will be rewarded. I don't care how you interact with Todd. I doubt he cares either.

[Madiel]

We'll I'm sure your advocacy means a lot and your efforts will be rewarded. I don't care how you interact with Todd. I doubt he cares either.

If you don't care, then why did you spend months expressing an opinion on it?

[Todd]

Ukraine is completely dependent on the US for its existence at this point.  That is why Time's corrupt Puppet of the Year made his first overseas trip during the war to Washington, DC, not Brussels.  That's why he popped up on the Golden Globes last night.  He knows who butters his bread.

I wonder if Zelensky might be able to lasso a second Puppet of the Year award from the very prestigious Time magazine this year.  Maybe Zelensky's supporters on GMG can get something going on change.org.

[milk]

If you don't care, then why did you spend months expressing an opinion on it?

Bingo. Somebody's blinders are showing.

Because the world doesn't revolve around you.