Europe at War

[Que]

Putin made a big bet that energy sales would fund his war in Ukraine. A new report shows that he was very wrong

(original source: fortune.com)

[Madiel]

Putin made a big bet that energy sales would fund his war in Ukraine. A new report shows that he was very wrong

(original source: fortune.com)

Interesting. I hadn't been aware that Europe was having a mild winter. Winter energy supplies were a big concern.

[Que]

Interesting. I hadn't been aware that Europe was having a mild winter. Winter energy supplies were a big concern.

It has been extremely mild... climate "hoax" and all that...

It also thwarted Putin's scheme to freeze the Ukrainian civilian population. Now that only this week the cold has set in Ukrainiane, most of the energy infrastructure is up and running again.

Meanwhile the Russian trenches have been filled with fresh recently mobilised recruits without proper winter gear...

[Florestan]

hadn't been aware that Europe was having a mild winter.

Mild is an understatement. In Romania we had 20 C in the first days of January while in normal times we should have had -5 C at most. There's no snow at all in the ski resorts.  In Poland the cherry trees have blossomed.

[Madiel]

Mild is an understatement. In Romania we had 20 C in the first days of January while in normal times we should have had -5 C at most. There's no snow at all in the ski resorts.  In Poland the cherry trees have blossomed.

Oh goodness.

[Florestan]

That last sentence sounds like something a cold war spy would say on a park bench to indicate his intentions. To which the correct reply would be something like 'And in Riga, the great eagle takes flight".

Or something. It tickled me, anyway.

 

[Fëanor]

I guess the question is: what now? What is it going to take to bring this war to some sort of endpoint? Putin seems like he's wiped out any rivals or successors. I wonder what the options are for ending this war if you take destroying him off the table. Is there a solution all parties can live with? If that's on the table, what does that lead to? Or maybe I'm making unfounded assumptions. Here's a question: can the end of this conflict be broken down into broad possibilities or likelihoods or is it impossible to see? I wonder also what each involved party sees as its options and preferable outcomes.

Is you objective to end the war?  When appease Putin by promising the Ukraine will never joint NATO or the EU.  (The Todd solution.)  BTW, just ceding Crimea and the Donbas won't quite do it I suspect.

Or is you object to thwart Putin's ambition to bring eastern Europe under direct Russian sway and weaken Western democracies?  That's another, more complex matter.

[milk]

Is you objective to end the war?  When appease Putin by promising the Ukraine will never joint NATO or the EU.  (The Todd solution.)  BTW, just ceding Crimea and the Donbas won't quite do it I suspect.

Or is you object to thwart Putin's ambition to bring eastern Europe under direct Russian sway and weaken Western democracies?  That's another, more complex matter.

I couldn't quite understand your post. I'm always interested in bringing things back on track by stating what the current situation actually is as far as people see it. The question of how we got here can he put aside at least for a moment. What are the outcomes relevant parties are looking for? Do we know? What scenarios are predictable? Or can any various possibilities be stated at this point? I'm trying to get back to basics for myself. If these questions are uninteresting or irrelevant, so be it. Whether this war could have or should have been avoided seems irrelevant at this point, or at least something that can be dropped. This seems now to be all or nothing for Putin. But, again, I don't know Russian politics. Some say that Putin doesn't even get full information because there isn't anyone to risk telling him something he doesn't want to hear. They say the same for Jinping only worse.

[Todd]

Putin made a big bet that energy sales would fund his war in Ukraine. A new report shows that he was very wrong

(original source: fortune.com)

I again refer you to the work of Angela Stent for a more comprehensive treatment of economic warfare.  2023 is going to see declines in GDP across Europe.  One country stands to gain from the economic challenges facing both Russia and Europe.

When appease Putin by promising the Ukraine will never joint NATO or the EU.

On GMG, diplomacy = appeasement.

[Todd]

But, again, I don't know Russian politics.

No one on this forum does.

[Madiel]

@Todd if Putin was actually interested in diplomacy he wouldn't have tried to swamp Kyiv in a matter of days.

Any talk of diplomacy now is entirely because the takeover was fucked up.

[Madiel]

No one on this forum does.

Troll. Troll troll troll.

You're the person who keeps stoking the conversation and then you're also the one who keeps saying it's pointless.

Troll.

[Fëanor]

I couldn't quite understand your post. I'm always interested in bringing things back on track by stating what the current situation actually is as far as people see it. The question of how we got here can he put aside at least for a moment. What are the outcomes relevant parties are looking for? Do we know? What scenarios are predictable? Or can any various possibilities be stated at this point? I'm trying to get back to basics for myself. If these questions are uninteresting or irrelevant, so be it. Whether this war could have or should have been avoided seems irrelevant at this point, or at least something that can be dropped. This seems now to be all or nothing for Putin. But, again, I don't know Russian politics. Some say that Putin doesn't even get full information because there isn't anyone to risk telling him something he doesn't want to hear. They say the same for Jinping only worse.

I think that is quite wrong.  We need to keep longer term threats clearly in focus, otherwise short-term solutions will be just that.

A nuanced understanding of Russian politics and professional psychological insight would be great, but isn't available and isn't necessary.  Putin's transparent goals are to (1) retain personal power, (2) establish Russian sway over eastern Europe (at least), and (3) establish Russia as a major player in world affairs.  Of course, there are other Russians who share these goals, (2) and (3) at least.

Consider that temporary piece might be obtained by ceding Donbas and Crimea, but this would at most serve Putin's first objective by offering him a face-saver in the situation where the war was taking too long or costing too much blood & treasure.  It would ultimately fail because it doesn't address Putin's wider goals which are also shared by his lackeys, including potential successors.

[Todd]

Putin's transparent goals are to (1) retain personal power, (2) establish Russian sway over eastern Europe (at least), and (3) establish Russia as a major player in world affairs.  Of course, there are other Russians who share these goals, (2) and (3) at least.

Assuming you know what is in Putin's mind - and you do not - so what?  American national security is not harmed by his goals as made up by you.  Americans must focus on American national security.  No one on this forum has ever been able to enumerate US economic or strategic interests in this war.

[milk]

Navy Secretary Warns: If Defense Industry Can't Boost Production, Arming Both Ukraine and the US May Become 'Challenging'

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/01/navy-secretary-warns-if-defense-industry-cant-boost-production-arming-both-ukraine-and-us-may-become-challenging/381722/


According to Breaking Points, the reporter was asked by the Navy Secretary to delete his tweet with the quote of the Navy Secretary's comments and the REPORTER DID IT!
https://youtu.be/CPPOwEWRRCI

[71 dB]

Interesting. I hadn't been aware that Europe was having a mild winter. Winter energy supplies were a big concern.

The winter hasn't been that bad so far, but this isn't over yet. Maybe we get a mini ice age in February? Anything can happen these days due to climate change related extreme weather conditions. I mean they just got snow in Mexico!

Has there been electricity blackouts anywhere in the Europe?

[Todd]

Navy Secretary Warns: If Defense Industry Can't Boost Production, Arming Both Ukraine and the US May Become 'Challenging'

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/01/navy-secretary-warns-if-defense-industry-cant-boost-production-arming-both-ukraine-and-us-may-become-challenging/381722/

This can only be addressed by emergency appropriations.  $50 billion should do it.  $100 billion would be better.

Ukrainians and warmongers should be clear that if the DOD must choose between arming the US and arming Ukraine, the US wins.

According to Breaking Points, the reporter was asked by the Navy Secretary to delete his tweet with the quote of the Navy Secretary's comments and the REPORTER DID IT!
https://youtu.be/CPPOwEWRRCI

Of course, he works for Defense One.  Here is the LinkedIn page: https://www.linkedin.com/company/defense-one/

"Defense One is a portfolio brand of GovExec, the market-leading information platform empowering government contractors to engage and support government leaders as they work to achieve their missions."

[Fëanor]

Assuming you know what is in Putin's mind - and you do not - so what?  American national security is not harmed by his goals as made up by you.  Americans must focus on American national security.  No one on this forum has ever been able to enumerate US economic or strategic interests in this war.

Enough cynical and malicious foolishness already.  You are deliberately ignoring that it is in the USA's interest to have a democratic and rule-of-law Europe -- and world for that matter.

You have insisted that liberal democracy is inconsistent with some nations' history and culture.  True.  But I have yet to convinced that history or culture justify one-party/one-man totalitarian dictatorship.  (Explanation is one thing, justification another.)

[Todd]

Enough cynical and malicious foolishness already.  You are deliberately ignoring that it is in the USA's interest to have a democratic and rule-of-law Europe -- and world for that matter.

Neocon dogma.

You have insisted that liberal democracy is inconsistent with some nations' history and culture.  True.

Stop there.

[drogulus]

    Putin does have a mind, and he tells the world what's in it. His behavior also tells us anything that might need explanation.

    What words and deeds tell us is Russia needs to control the invasion routes and capture the resources located there. Primarily this consists of the populations, the farmland and the mineral resources. Russia has the worst farmland of any large country. Ukraine has some of the best. Therefore, all Ukes living and soon to be dead are brother Russians. Surviving Ukes add to population totals, an important goal in itself.

    The warmongerish West doesn't produce enough weapons for war, and perhaps not even enough for a proper defense. Can we all agree this is super-provocative? I judge Putin thought exactly that when he launched his war. Of course I'm only reading his mind in light of his actions. He might be schizo and not even know why he did it.

    Earlier I made the point that NATO was a shiny object that serves as propaganda to distract from the real issue, that Ukraine had to be prevented from aligning itself with the rest of Europe in all ways other than military alliance, which is closed to them. A successful Ukraine by any metric is a nightmare for a Russian autocrat aiming to do Russian autocrat things.

    Here's a Russian guy who's good at knowing stuff that I like to consult. Note: I didn't get the "drip feed" notion from him. I don't know who used it first.

    Russian Guy: